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There has been good news from the German Cement Works Association (VDZ) this week. Following a strong start to the year, the association expects cement consumption in 2020 to remain similar to the level, 28.7Mt, reported in 2019. VDZ president Christian Knell acknowledged the difficulty in making forecasts, this year of all years, but said that the association remained positive since demand had held up so well. He noted the continued operation of construction sites, despite the local coronavirus-related lockdown from March 2020, and the ‘quick action’ of politicians.

Graph 1: German cement deliveries, 2015 – 2019: Source: German Cement Works Association (VDZ).

The year certainly started well, with a 33% year-on-year increase in domestic cement deliveries to 1.43Mt in January 2020 from 1.07Mt in January 2019. This was due in part to good weather, although it also looks good because 2019 started badly compared to 2018. Yet, the VDZ’s assessment has been supported by the results of the main producers operating in the country. HeidelbergCement reported that Germany bucked the trend of its Western and Southern Europe Group area in the first half of 2020 with a ‘positive market development’ whereas deliveries declined significantly everywhere else. Similarly, LafargeHolcim noted a ‘resilient’ performance in Germany. Buzzi Unicem released a more detailed assessment, with shipments of hydraulic binders down in April and May 2020 but then back up with a recovery in June 2020. Overall its cement plants reported a slight decline in sales for the first half of the year. Concrete production grew however, by 6% year-on-year, possibly aided by the plants that the group purchased in 2019.

Germany’s success appears to be down to two factors. The first, as Knell mentioned above, is that it was able to keep much of its construction industry open through its lockdown. Dieter Babiel, the head of Hauptverband der Deutschen Bauindustrie – the main German construction industry association - reckoned that the industry was operating at about 80% capacity in May 2020 compared to the situation in other large European countries like France, the UK, Spain and Italy where building sites totally closed at the height of local lockdowns before gradual reopening. Bauindustrie has since reported falling monthly order intake as coronavirus-effects on the general economy filter through to construction. The other reason is that the country has managed to control its outbreak better compared to other European countries. It has reported the third most cases in Europe but its fatality rate is only 4% compared to 14% in the UK, Italy and France. This has been attributed to strong public health measures and high levels of testing, particularly with respect to elderly residential care.

It’s not all plain sailing though since the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a 7.8% decline in Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020. Likewise, the VDZ is predicting weakening construction markets and cement demand in the fourth quarter of 2020. It cited falling orders and requests for building permits as mounting evidence for this trend. From here a gloomier outlook is foreseen for 2021 as construction budgets for commercial and government projects are cut. At the same time uncertainty in the labour market is expected to drag down the residential market. With this in mind the VDZ is predicting cement demand to drop by 3 – 5% in 2021.

To end on an upbeat note, if the VDZ’s forecasts are accurate, then the German cement sector looks like it might weather the coronavirus-downturn better than other industries. It knows a downturn in construction is coming and it can prepare for it.

Brazil: InterCement has appointed Wilson Nelio Brumer as the chairman of its board of directors. He succeeds Franklin Feder, who has resigned after nearly three years in the position.

Brumer has held chief executive officer (CEO) roles at large companies including Vale, Acesita and Usiminas. He has also been the chairman or on the board of directors at organisations such as BHP Billiton, Cemig, CCR, Direcional Engenharia, Embraer, Localiza, Metso and Fundação Renova. Currently, he is the president of the board of the Brazilian Mining Institute (IBRAM) and, since April 2020, chairman and CEO of InterCement’s controlling shareholder, Mover Participações.

Germany: The Verein Deutscher Zementwerke (VDZ) has forecast domestic cement consumption of 28.7Mt in 2020, consistent with the 2019 level. The impacts of the coronavirus lockdown were offset by “a good start to the year, not least due to the weather conditions” and “the continued operation of construction sites in March thanks to the quick actions of politicians.”

The organisation said that the situation was unprecedentedly unpredictable with orders and building permits currently in decline. It expects demand to partly tail off in the fourth quarter of 2020, falling by between 3 - 5%, as companies postpone or discard planned developments in the face of restricted budgets. It said, “Nonetheless, the government’s economic stimulus pacts will undoubtedly provide a positive impetus through such initiatives as public infrastructure and multi-family housing projects.

China: Anhui Conch has announced the start of production at its subsidiary Basu Conch’s 0.9Mt/yr-capacity clinker production line, its first in the Tibet Autonomous Region. Anhui Conch Sichuan and Chongqing regional director Zhang Laihui said, “Thanks to its mature corporate management, Basu Conch has built an industrial plant in the wilderness in 468 days – that’s ’Conch speed.’ Our group mission of ’industrial aid to Tibet’ stands as an example of good management, development and efficiency in public-private cooperation.”

Bangladesh: Cement producers imported US$760,000-worth of raw materials in the 2020 financial year which ended on 30 June 2020, down by 13% year-on-year from US$874,000 in the 2019 financial year. Clinker, calcareous stone, granulated blast furnace slag (GBFS) and gypsum imports totalled 18.6Mt, down by 11% from 21.0Mt, compared to annual growth of 15 - 20% since 2010.

The Daily Star newspaper has reported that this was due to decreased cement demand, with sales falling to 65,000t in April 2020 from 125,000t in March 2020 on account of the start of the nationwide coronavirus lockdown. Premier Cement managing director Amirul Islam said, “We are not getting the benefits we expected from the government. The sector’s capital is gradually running out, so all kinds of discretionary tax cuts are needed to save this industry.”

Bangladeshi cement producers import raw materials from Thailand, Vietnam and China.

Japan: Taiheiyo Cement recorded a net profit between 1 March 2020 and 30 June 2020, the first quarter of the 2021 financial year, of US$30.6m, down by 42% year-on-year from US$52.6m in the first quarter of the 2020 financial year. Sales fell by 3% to US$1.88bn from US$1.94bn. The company said that the coronavirus outbreak affected sales in all regions.

India: Star Cement’s profit in the first quarter of the 2021 financial year, to 30 June 2020, fell by 47% year-on-year to US$5.91m from US$11.2m. This was caused by a by 37% decline in sales to US$39.0m from US$61.6m. Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) also fell, by 42% to US$8.72m from US$15.0m.

France: Imerys has signed an agreement to buy a 60% stake of Haznedar Group, a Turkey-based monolithic refractories and refractory bricks producer for the cement, steel, iron and petrochemical markets. The acquisition is expected to conclude in the fourth quarter of 2020 subject to approval by competition authorities. No value for the deal has been released.

The acquisition will add basic and acidic refractory bricks to Imerys’ product range and extend its industrial footprint with a production base in Turkey. It is also expected to strengthen its position within the Turkish market. The business will be consolidated in Imerys’ High Temperature Solutions business area, part of its High Temperature Materials & Solutions segment.

Uzbekistan: South Korea-based Caris is considering build a cement plant in the Beruni region of Karakalpakstan. This follows the completion of geological studies in conjunction with the local government, according to the Dunyo News Agency. Caris is now working on a feasibility study for the project before arranging finance.

Philippines: Eagle Cement recorded a net profit of US$26.5m in the first half of 2020, down by 61% year-on-year from US$68.0m. Sales also fell, by 44% to US$120m from US$214m.

Chief executive officer (CEO) Paul Ang said, “These are very difficult times but we remain confident that the economy will recover from this pandemic and emerge stronger. The government’s steady push for the completion of major infrastructure projects and the private sector’s readiness to bounce back offer encouraging signs for our company’s prospects moving forward.” He added, “More aggressive strategies in pricing and marketing will be undertaken in the remaining half of the year.”