Displaying items by tag: New Zealand

Australia: James Hardie recorded net sales of US$2.10bn in the first nine months of its 2021 financial year, up by 9% year-on-year from US$1.93bn in the first nine months of its 2020 financial year. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxation rose by 25% to US$456m from US$366m. Sales and earnings increased in all three regions in which the company operates. In Australia and New Zealand, it reduced costs by consolidating fibre cement production at its two Australian plants.

Chief executive officer Jack Truong said, “I am pleased with these record results, underpinned by excellent execution of our business transformation that we began in 2019, combined with increasing demand for our premium-quality James Hardie brand products and solutions. The transformation we undertook to unlock capacity and increase efficiency in our global manufacturing network through lean initiatives and to better integrate our supply chain with our customers continues to deliver consistent market share gains and the ability to serve our customers seamlessly around the world. We are firmly on track with our investments in growth to broaden our portfolio with industry-leading innovations that enhance aesthetic value for homeowners. Our transformation initiatives will enable us to expand our market opportunity and allow us to continue to deliver strong performance.”

Australia/New Zealand/US: Ireland-based James Hardie has announced the planned closure of three of its fibre cement board plants. The Cooroy, Queensland plant in Australia, Summerville, South Carolina plant in the US and Penrose, Auckland plant in New Zealand will close permanently in mid-2020, resulting in a total of 375 job cuts. The NZ Herald newspaper has reported that the decision to shut the plants came about due to the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economic situation. James Hardie will now supply the New Zealand market from its Carole Park, Queensland and Rosehill, New South Wales plants. James Hardie also closed its Siglingen, Baden-Württemberg plant in Germany on a temporary basis, ‘in order to better match supply and demand in the European market.’

James Hardie revised its 2020 profit forecast to US$355m, down by 4.1% from US$370m.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) took on direct implications for the international cement industry this week when an Italian vendor infected with the virus visited Lafarge Africa in Ogun state, Nigeria. The cement producer said that it had ‘immediately’ started contact tracing and started isolation, quarantine and disinfection protocols. This included initiating medical protocols at its Ewekoro integrated plant, although local press reported the unit’s production lines were still open. Around 100 people were thought to have had contact with the man.

Global Cement has been covering the epidemic since early February 2020 when the virus’ effect on the construction industry in China started to become evident. First, an industry event CementTech was postponed, financial analysts started forecasting negative financial consequences for producers and plants started going into coronavirus-related maintenance or suspension cycles. Then at least one plant started to dispose of clinical waste and now China National Building Material Group (CNBM) is considering how to restart operations at scale. Also, this week Hong Kong construction companies reportedly laid off 50,00 builders due to a lack of cement due to the on-going production suspension in China.

The major cement companies have identified that their first business risk from coronavirus comes from simply not having the staff to make building materials. LafargeHolcim’s chief executive officer Jan Jenisch summed up the group’s action in its annual financial results for 2020 this week when he said, “We are taking all necessary measures to protect the health of our employees and their families.” Other major cement producers that Global Cement has contacted have placed travel restrictions for staff and reduced access to production facilities.

The next risk for cement companies comes from a drop in economic activity. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts a global 0.5% year-on-year fall in real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.4%, with China and India suffering the worst declines in GDP growth at around 1%. The global figure is the worst since the -0.1% rate reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2009. The OECD blamed the disease control measures in China, as well as the direct disruption to global supply chains, weaker final demand for imported goods and services and regional declines in international tourism and business travel. This forecast is contingent on the epidemic peaking in China in the first quarter of 2020 and new cases of the virus in other countries being sporadic and contained. So far the latter does not seem to have happened and the OECD’s ‘domino’ scenario predicts a GDP reduction of 1.5%. All of this is likely to drag on construction activity and demand for cement and concrete for some time to come.

Moving to cement markets and production, demand is likely to be slowed as countries implement various levels of isolation and quarantine leading to reduced residential demand for buildings directly and as workforces are restricted. Business and infrastructure projects may follow as economies slow and governments refocus spending respectively.

The UK government, for example, is basing its coronavirus action plan on an outbreak lasting four to six months. This could potentially happen in many countries throughout 2020. This has the potential to create a rolling effect of disruption as different nations are hit. Assuming China has passed the peak of its local epidemic then its producers are likely to report reduced income in the first quarter of 2020. The effect may even be reduced somewhat due to the existing winter peak shifting measures, whereby production is shut down to reduce pollution. Elsewhere, cement companies in the northern hemisphere may see their busy summer months affected if the virus spreads. The effect on balance sheets may be visible with indebted companies and/or those with more exposure to affected areas disproportionately affected. The wildcard here is whether coronavirus transmits as easily in warmer weather as it does in the cooler winter months. In this case there may be a difference, generally speaking, between the global north and south. Exceptions to watch could be cooler southern places such as New Zealand, Argentina and Chile. Shortages, as mentioned above in Taiwan, potentially should be short term, owing to global overcapacity of cement production, as end users find supplies from elsewhere.

The cement industry is also likely to encounter disruption to its supply chains. Major construction projects in South Asia are already reporting delays as Chinese workers have failed to return following quarantine restrictions after the Chinese New Year celebrations. As other countries suffer uncontrolled outbreaks then similar travel restrictions may follow. Global Cement has yet to see any examples of materials in the cement industry supply chain being affected. On the production side, raw mineral supply tends to be local but fuels, like coal, often travel further. Fuel markets may prove erratic as larger consumers cut back and suppliers like the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) react by restricting production.

On the maintenance side cement plants need a wide array of parts such as refractories, motors, lubricants, gears, wear parts for mills, ball bearings and so forth. Some of these may have more complicated supply chain routes than they used to have 30 years ago. On the supplier side any new or upgrade plant project is vulnerable if necessary parts are delayed by a production halt, logistics delayed and/or staff are prevented from visiting work sites. Chinese suppliers’ reliance on using their own workers, for example, might well be a hindrance here until (or if) international quarantine rules are normalised. Other suppliers’ weak points in their supply chains may become exposed in turn. This would benefit suppliers with sufficiently robust chains.

Chinese reductions in NO₂ emissions in relation to the coronavirus industrial shutdown have been noted in the press. A wider global effect could well be seen too. This could potentially pose problems to CO₂ emissions trading schemes around the world as CO₂ prices fall and carbon credits abound. This might also have deleterious effects on carbon capture and storage (CCS) development if it becomes redundant due to low CO₂ pricing. In the longer-term this might undesirable, as by the time the CO₂ prices pick up again we will be that much nearer to the 2050 sustainability deadlines.

COVID-19 is a new pandemic in all but name with major secondary outbreaks in South Korea, Iran and Italy growing fast and cases being reported in many other countries. The bad news though is that individual countries and international bodies have to decide how to balance the economic damage disease control will cause, versus the effects of letting the disease run unchecked. Yet as more information emerges on how to tackle coronavirus, the good news is that most people will experience flu-like symptoms and nothing more. Chinese action shows that it can be controlled through public health measures while a vaccine is being developed.

Until then, frequent handwashing is a ‘given’ and many people and organisations are running risk calculations on aspects of what they do. It may seem flippant but even basic human interaction such as the handshake needs to be reconsidered for the time being.

New Zealand: Fletcher Building is expecting to declare lower earnings in the half year to 31 December 2018 due to a regional slowdown, particularly in Australia. Its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) for the six month period was around 10% lower than the same period of the 2017-2018 financial year. It is expected to be in the range of US$432-467m.

In a report Fletcher Building said, “While the company continues to target a result at the top end of this range, it is prudent at this stage in the year to highlight that the 2019 financial year EBIT will be impacted by the outage at the Golden Bay Cement plant, the slowdown in the Australian residential market and the reduction in land development earnings compared to last year.”

Australia/New Zealand: George Agriogiannis has been appointed as the chief executive officer (CEO) at Holcim Australia and New Zealand. He succeeds Mark Campbell, according to the Australian newspaper. Agriogiannis was previously the executive general manager of concrete and aggregates at Adelaide Brighton. His departure coincides with new CEO Nick Miller officially taking up the post. Agriogiannis starts the new job with the LafargeHolcim subsidiary on 11 March 2019.

New Zealand: Fletcher Building says that its Golden Bay Cement plant in Auckland was forced stop its cement mill for four weeks in September 2018. It said it had insurance to cover this but that its earnings for its 2019 financial year are likely to be impacted by up to US$8m. Generally, the building materials producer reported that, until the end of October 2018, its business in New Zealand had been flat. In Australia it is facing ‘challenging’ conditions with growing input prices and a slowing residential sector.

New Zealand: Fletcher Building has appointed Ian Jones as the chief executive of its newly created Concrete Division. The new division includes Golden Bay Cement, Winstone Aggregates and Firth. The appointment is a move by the Antipodean building materials company to focus its business on core operations in building products and distribution. The group also plans to sell its Formica and Roof Tile Group businesses.

New Zealand: The Buller District Council has backed out of plans to buy Holcim Cement’s former Westport plant assets and land on the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island, including a water supply and treatment plant, a quarry, land, silos and a packing plant.

Buller District Mayor Garry Howard said that the council has been negotiating for over a year on US$3.5m deal, but concerns over the Cape Foulwind site led to it abandoning its plans. He said that buying the former cement plant site could have made the council liable for remediation of the land. Howard says the council had been keen to get the quarry as a source of rock for river and coastal protection.
Westport lost over 100 jobs when Holcim closed the cement plant in 2016, after 58 years of operation.

New Zealand: Golden Bay Cement plans to start shipping cement directly from its integrated plant at Whangarei, Northland in the North Island. Previously, cement from the plant was being shipped to the South Island via Auckland, according to the New Zealand Herald newspaper. Once the logistic change is completed around 11% of Whangarei’s output will be shipped to the South Island.

After a couple of weeks looking at the capacity-rich cement markets of Angola and Vietnam, we turn our attention this week to some of those countries on the receiving end of overcapacity.

Costa Rica is an unlikely place to start but it came to our attention this week due to a short but significant news item. In summary, the amount of cement imported into Costa Rica increased by a factor of 10 between 2014 and 2016, from around 10,000t to over 100,000t. This is around 5% of its 2Mt/yr domesitic capacity, so the change is already fairly big news. The fact that an incredible 97% of this came from just one country, China, makes the story far more interesting as it shows the effects that Chinese overcapacity can have on smaller markets.

But when we look at how the value of the cement imports has changed over time, we see an even more dynamic shift. While the amount of cement imported into the country increased by nearly 10-fold, the value of the same imports only increased by around half as much between 2014 and 2016. If these figures can be taken at face value, the implication is stark. Taking the very low base as effectively ‘zero,’ each tonne of cement imported must cost around half as much as it used to.

Digging a little deeper and the picture gets more complicated. While they have fallen, Costa Rican cement prices have not fallen by 50% and why the sudden deluge of imports anyway? In 2015 the country changed its rules on cement imports to facilitate more flexible imports and lower prices for consumers. It did this by changing a regulation relating to how long cement can be stored, previously set at just 45 days, with the aim of allowing cement to come from further afield and, crucially, in bulk rather than bags.

The effects on price were immediate. Previously as high as US$13/bag (50kg) in December 2014, fairly high by global standards, Sinocem, the first Chinese importer, immediately sold its first shipment at US$10/bag. This effect of lower prices has now forced the average sales prices down to around US$10/bag across the country by 2017. This is good for consumers but not necessarily the local plants.

Back in 2015, the two local integrated plants operated by Cemex and Holcim warned that cement quality would suffer if cement bags were not used within 45 days. This apparently self-serving ‘warning’ went unheeded by the Ministry of Economy, Industry and Trade (MEIC), which pointed out that other countries in South America, as well as the European Union and United States, had no analogous short use-by dates for cement bags.

The rule remains in place, although discontent rumbles on. Indeed LafargeHolcim noted in its third quarter results for 2016 that ‘Costa Rica was adversely affected by increased foreign imports.’  This may well be a little bit of posturing and it doesn’t square with the fact that Costa Rica exported three times more cement that it imported in 2016. Of total exports of 0.34Mt, over 95% went to neighbouring Nicaragua, which has a single 0.6Mt/yr wet process plant owned by Cemex. It seems that the two Costa Rican plants have found a way to keep a little bit of the Chinese producers’ margin for themselves.

Of course, Chinese cement overcapacity doesn’t only affect the Central American market. It has been rippling all around the Pacific Rim. In July 2017, this column looked at the decision by Cementos Bío Bío to stop making clinker at its Talcahuano plant in Chile. It now favours grinding imported clinker from Asia. Before that, Holcim New Zealand closed its Westport cement plant in 2016, finally admitting that domestic clinker was not viable.

In the grand scheme of things, this all makes sense. The market has forced those operating on thin margins to adjust. Ultimately, the end consumer is likely to benefit from lower prices, at least for as long as reliable low-cost imports can be secured. What happens, however, if China actually gets round to curtailing its rampant cement capacity, or simply decides to charge more for its cement? Flexible imports, the main aim of the Costa Rican rule change, may then prove vital, as long as there is more than one international supplier of cement.