Displaying items by tag: Nigeria

Following the Standards Industry of Nigeria's (SON) decision earlier this week to ban 32.5 grade cement for all applications except for plastering, the country's cement industry is likely to be faced with some difficult decisions. The new rules state that 42.5 grade cement must be used for casting of columns, beams, slabs and for moulding blocks, while 52.5 grade cement is now mandatory for building bridges. As a developing country, Nigeria is home to a large number of construction and infrastructure projects. To ensure safety this means that the construction industry must be well-regulated.

Arguments against the use of low quality cement in Nigeria have been long drawn out as low quality cement has been blamed for a spate of building collapses, resulting in the deaths of 297 people in 1974 – 2010.

In support of the country's cement producers, SON's director general Joseph Ikem Odumodu was eager to point out that low quality cement is not to blame for Nigeria's building collapses. He said that cement grades 32.5, 42.5 and 52.5 are designed for different applications, which are not being adhered to by builders. While 42.5 grade cement is the minimum suitable grade for multi-story building construction like residential homes, 32.5 grade cement is frequently used instead as it is cheaper and more readily available.

Dangote Cement is currently the only company producing 52.5 grade cement in the country, which it sells at the same price as its 42.5 grade cement. The new SON decision is therefore expected to be good news for Dangote, potentially increasing sales volumes and improving the company's reputation.

With regards to the rest of Nigeria's cement producers, unless they are able to convert their production process for 42.5 and 52.5 grade cement extremely rapidly, Nigeria's cement imports and prices for domestic 42.5 and 52.5 grade cements are likely to increase, in contrast to recent trends. The new regulations, which SON has said will be strictly enforced, provide an excellent opportunity for market share expansion to those cement producers that respond rapidly. It might also be considered the ideal moment for companies to begin exploring brand identities and marketing campaigns. Lookout for our new report on cement branding in a future issue of Global Cement Magazine.

Holcim released its first quarter results for 2014 this week and benefits of a merger seemed clear: both sales and profit were down. Net sales fell by 5.4% to Euro3.35bn and net income fell by 57.5% to Euro65.6m. However, Chief Financial Officer Thomas Aebischer was upbeat on meeting the regulatory requirements of any merger and the prospect of divestment opportunities.

This week we have a guest contributor - Andy Gboka, an analyst at Exotix LLP, a London-based broker specialised in Frontier markets – writing about the impact in Africa from the Lafarge-Holcim merger:

No change in Sub-Saharan Africa cement markets

Looking at (1) the location and size of the assets that both groups operate across the region but also (2) the expansion projects recently announced, we do not anticipate any upheaval in the competitive landscape, at least in the medium term.

Potential reshuffle of African assets

We identify Nigeria and Morocco as the main countries where the two companies are likely to reorganise their operations post-deal.

After the market excitement Lafarge / Holcim's price gains have averaged 9% since the announcement versus +8% the same day (04/04/14). We think it timely to discuss, from a competition angle, the likely impact on sector dynamics in Africa.

Starting with Sub-Saharan Africa where Lafarge and Holcim have been present for decades, the two groups have grown their output capability over time to reach a combined ~20.7Mt/yr. Holcim is a much smaller cement producer through its ~2.6Mt/yr in Ivory Coast, Guinea and Nigeria, whereas the French manufacturer is a regional leader with ~18.1Mt/yr capacity across 10 different countries. North African exposure paints a similar picture, as the Swiss company's installed capacity is ~9.6Mt/yr versus ~21.6Mt/yr for Lafarge (including their respective shareholdings in Lafarge Cement Egypt).

Although we do not believe the proposed merger will significantly alter Africa's competitive environment, business reorganisation is likely in:

(1) Nigeria. LafargeHolcim would control more than ~70% of the United Cement Company of Nigeria Ltd (UNICEM, 2.5Mt/yr in Calabar) which, in our view, is a suitable context for minorities' buyout.

(2) Morocco. More than ~50% of the industry's production capacity is controlled by the two players, a situation that may lead to asset disposals after review by the local competition commission.

Beyond the corporate implications, this announcement also puts into perspective the multiples investors are willing to pay for companies operating in Africa. Indeed, for 2014/2015 financial year the enterprise multiple (enterprise value / earnings before depreciation and amortisation) and price-to-book ratio for the main stocks listed in Nigeria and Kenya average 10.3x and 2.9x respectively, vs. 8.4x and 1.3x for LafargeHolcim (Bloomberg). While demand growth prospects in the teen digits or margins above ~25% (especially in Nigeria) would support a premium for the former names, we think the extent of that premium is questionable.

The best illustration is Dangote Cement, whose market capitalisation stands at ~US$25bn for total capacity estimated at 50 – 55Mt/yr by the 2016 financial year, relatively high when compared to the expected ~US$55bn market capitalisation for LafargeHolcim with (1) 427Mt/yr cement capacity globally and (2) ~60% of its revenue from emerging markets. This underpins our cautious stance on the sector.

Source: Andy Gboka, analyst at Exotix LLP (London-Based broker specialised in Frontier markets).

Andy Gboka will be speaking at the forthcoming Global CemTrader Conference, taking place in London on 2 -3 June 2014.

Dangote Cement let everybody know this week that it is now producing 52.5MPa grade cement in Nigeria. The move was a response to building pressure from professional and civil groups in the country which have reacted in recent months to the high incidence of building collapses in the country. With the 42.5MPa grade looking likely to become the new legal standard, Dangote's adoption of an even higher standard looks like canny marketing.

The background to this tussle lies in the spate of building collapses that have plagued Nigeria in recent years. A widely cited paper in the Global Journal of Researches in Engineering from 2010 reported at least 26 incidents in Nigeria between 1975 to 1995 with 226 fatalities. Later figures from 2004 to 2006 reported at least 10 incidents with 243 fatalities, a significantly higher prevalence than in the earlier period. The paper recommended adopting standards for building materials such as cement among other measures. Since the publication of this paper news reports have been hard to collate. Commentators placed the toll at 15 collapses with 30 fatalities for the first eight months of 2013 alone.

The Standards Organisation of Nigeria (SON) reacted to the latest outcry over building collapses by saying that they were caused by poor application, such as a using the wrong quality of cement for a particular task, not poor standards. According to the SON, 32.5MPa grade cement is recommended for activities such as plastering, flooring, block moulding, culvert making and building simple domestic houses. 42.5MPa grade is designed for the construction of tall buildings, bridges and load bearing columns.

Adopting a national standard of 42.5MPa grade is intended to stop misuse of lower grade cement being used for the wrong applications. One example commentators have mentioned is how to help illiterate builders select the right kind of cement for a given task. Choosing an overall higher standard is one solution to this problem. Education is another.

One fact that has emerged from the debate is that, according to Dangote Chief Executive Officer DVG Edwin, the SON imposed 42.5MPa grade as the minimum for imports before most imports were stopped in late 2012. Edwin used this as an argument for the SON enforcing the same standard for domestic cement production. Anything that can cut the number of building collapses can only be a good thing.

There was a great quote on BBC News from Nigerian cement mogul Aliko Dangote to start 2014 with: "Can you imagine, can you believe, that [Nigeria] has been growing at 7%/yr with no power, with zero power? It's a joke."

In the article Dangote is describing economic growth in Nigeria and the BBC points out that 170 million people in Nigeria use the same amount of power as 1.5 million people do in the UK. The author then goes on to predict that Nigeria could grow at a rate of 10 – 12%, by just solving power infrastructure in the country.

For the start of 2014 the British state broadcaster has been running a radio series on the so-called MINT economies. The term refers to the growing economies of Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey and is being used as a new buzzword in the same fashion as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to describe broadly similar growing economies outside the traditional western bloc dominated by the G7.

Comparing the cement industries in the MINT countries raises some discrepancies between the desires of Western economists and the local cement industries. Mexico has a population of 118m, a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$1.85tr and a cement production capacity of 50Mt/yr. Indonesia has a population of 238m, a GDP of US$1.29tr and a cement production capacity of 47Mt/yr. Nigeria has a population of 175m, a GDP of US$479bn and a cement production capacity of 28Mt/yr. Turkey has a population of 74m, a GDP of US$1.17tr and a cement production capacity of 82Mt/yr.

Mexico and Turkey have the lower populations in the MINT group, the highest (and most similar) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita at US$15,000 and are the more developed cement industries in the group with the higher cement production capacities per capita. All of the MINT countries have infrastructural issues that will require large amounts of cement in the coming years.

Highlighting Dangote's concerns we cover a cement industry news story this week from Nepal, where Dangote is considering potential locations for a cement plant. Part of the publicly reported meeting between Dangote and the Nepalese government concerned power requirements for the project. Dangote intends to generate 30MW itself and has asked Nepal to provide 30MW. From the CEO downwards the cement producer clearly understands the problems of underdeveloped infrastructure. This is not surprising given his comments above!

That MINT economies are growing powers will not surprise the cement industry. In this week's Global Cement Weekly, in addition to the Dangote story, we feature two news stories focusing on direct industry capital investment in Indonesia. Looking more widely nearly half the stories are from BRIC or MINT countries.

With this in mind Global Cement has developed its own buzzword for the cement industry in 2014: the VISA group. This group includes Vietnam, Italy, Spain and Australia, countries that have all had problems with their cement industries in 2013 such as a production overcapacity or financial losses. If readers have any nicknames of their own for groups of cement producing nations let us know at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Nigeria: Lafarge has announced the appointment of Guillaume Roux as the Country Chief Executive Officer for Nigeria and Benin Republic effective from September 2013. He succeeds Jean-Christophe Barbant.

Roux, a joint French and US national, is a graduate of the Institut d'Etudes Politiques in Paris. He joined the Lafarge Group in 1980 as an Internal Auditor.

After holding several key positions in the Finance Department in France and the United States, he was appointed as Vice President, Strategy and Marketing for North America in 1996 and later as Chief Executive of Lafarge operations in Turkey in 1999.

In 2002 he was given responsibility for Lafarge's cement operations in South-East Asia, a position he held until he joined the Executive Committee of Lafarge Group as Executive Vice President and Co President of the Cement Division, with the responsibility for the cement business in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa in 2006.

Roux is a member of the Executive Committee for Lafarge Group and combines this role with his current responsibility for Lafarge's operations in Nigeria and Benin Republic. This is the first time a member of the Group Executive Committee will also be a Country CEO.

In the global cement news this week, we see that PPC (the former Pretoria Portland Cement), a large-scale domestic player in the South African cement industry, has taken it upon itself to provide association-like services to cement and concrete consumers in the country. PPC says that it felt obliged to supply information on things like quantity analysis, setting advice and product testing in the place of the now-defunct Cement and Concrete Institute (CCI).

The CCI, lambasted by PPC and other cement producers for years, was accused in April 2013 by PPC of not providing the kind of advice and services that cement producers should expect from an association. PPC, Lafarge and AfriSam all pulled funding and the CCI collapsed.

If the CCI had simply ceased to exist, PPC's new stance, putting its own cash into industry-wide assistance, might be seen as laudable. However, the CCI has been re-born as the Concrete Institute (CI), an organisation that is, by its own admission, no longer on the lookout for the interests of the whole industry. The CI is largely backed by Sephaku Cement, itself majority owned by the Nigerian cement juggernaut Dangote Cement, making PPC's stance suddenly look like one of self-preservation. Dangote is making rapid progress in the sub-Saharan cement industry and firms like PPC cannot afford to let it sweep aside the status-quo in South Africa.

The speed and scale of Dangote's rise, covered previously in this column, is huge. Nigeria's largest company now has interests in Senegal, Zambia, Tanzania, Congo, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast and Liberia as well as Nigeria and South Africa. Not a month goes by without the announcement of another upgrade, plant or project. Dangote has a fantastic position in its domestic market that has enabled these new projects to be funded.

By contrast PPC is battling a stale construction market in South Africa. South African cement sales fell by 3.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2012. To counteract this, PPC has committed to expand outside of South Africa to the tune of 40% of total production by the start of 2016. It announced in early 2013 that production is on track to come online in Rwanda, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo by the fourth quarter of 2015. Zimbabwe is expected to follow suit by the middle of 2016. It already has interests in Botswana and Mozambique.

With two of its largest home-grown cement producers both expanding rapidly outside of their domestic markets, and a relative lack of interest from the big four multinationals, the sub-Saharan cement market is set for big changes in the medium to long term. PPC and Dangote are expanding towards each other and already share many markets. Dangote has expanded more rapidly and is moving towards exports from Nigeria. PPC is catching up by taking shares in strategically-placed plants. Is sub-Sahara headed for a showdown...? Whatever happens, the future of this rapidly-growing market will certainly be interesting.

Nigeria: The Northern Cement Company of Nigeria has appointed of Alhaji Ibrahim Aminu as executive director (finance). He replaces Finn Arnoldsen. Alhaji Garba Muhammad Sarkin Kudu has been appointed as a non-executive representing Sokoto State Government on the board, replacing Alhaji Sani Garba Shuni. The appointments take immediate effect.

Alhaji Ibrahim Aminu, a chartered accountant aged 45, holds a Bachelor of Science Degree in Accounting from Ahmadu Bello University. He started his working career in 1991 with the Federal Civil Service Commission, Lagos and subsequently worked for the Nigeria Universal Bank, the Nigerian Security Printing & Minting Co, Nigerian Telecommunications Ltd and BUA Flour Mills, before joining the Cement Company of Northern Nigeria as financial director in 2010.

Alhaji Garba Muhammad Sarkin Kudu, aged 53, holds a Bachelor of Art Degree in History from Usman Dan Fodio University. He has held various roles with the Sokoto state government becoming the Permanent Secretary Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism prior to his appointment with the Cement Company of Northern Nigeria.

If you have any spare cement this week – send it to Ghana!

First, HeidelbergCement announced plans for a new cement mill on the coast at Takoradi. Then, Dangote officially started to export cement to the west African nation.

HeidelbergCement's strategy in the region is telling because it is starting to head inland. The press release on Ghana indicated that the German-based cement producer intends to expand its capacity to 4.4Mt/yr by late 2014. This follows a recent announcement that HeidelbergCement are building their first grinding plant in Burkina Faso, directly north of Ghana. Previously the producer imported cement there. Now it intends to build a US$50m plant with a production capacity of 0.65Mt/yr.

Since most of HeidelbergCement's existing infrastructure in the region is based on the coast, building a plant in a landlocked nation - Burkina Faso - is a huge vote of investor confidence in west Africa. "In particular the countries of sub-Saharan Africa have a very high growth potential due to their early stage of industrialisation and rich natural resources," said Dr Bernd Scheifele, chairman of the managing board of HeidelbergCement in the statement accompanying the Ghana expansion.

The move also provides a clue as to how competitive the cement market is becoming in territories near the coast in Africa. Currently HeidelbergCement holds a mostly coastal presence in western Africa, in Benin, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Togo. It has four cement plants and nine grinding plants. Its cement business made a year-on-year increase in revenue of 12% to Euro612m in 2012.

Roughly calculated, HeidelbergCement is paying US$77/t in Burkina Faso compared to US$38/t in Ghana to build its new production capacity. HeidelbergCement must be paying double for a reason.

Meanwhile, Dangote Cement announced on the same day (11 March 2013) that a fleet of cement trucks were heading to Ghana. Already the Nigerian cement producer holds a cement terminal with a bagging capacity of 1.5Mt/yr in the country. Dangote intends to start exporting 5000t/week of cement. Its eventual target is 5000t/day when the logistics are in place, or up to 1.8Mt/yr. Not a bad start in unloading Dangote's self-declared overcapacity of 20Mt/yr in Nigeria upon the neighbouring nations in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Nigeria's Minister of Trade and Investment, Olusegun Aganga brought together warring parties from Dangote and Ibeto Cement this week to discuss their very public spat about the state of the country's cement industry.

Claims that Nigeria is facing a 'glut' of cement have been building since the Cement Manufacturing Association of Nigeria (CMAN) declared that Nigeria was 'self-sufficient' in cement in late 2012. So when leading cement importer Ibeto Cement questioned this narrative, leading cement producers Dangote and Lafarge hit back. Aganga then announced a review of the country's industry.

Despite Nigeria's potential to consume cement, something is stopping it. Yet, as Ibeto Cement rightly asked, if Nigeria is producing too much cement why isn't the price falling?

Hard facts about the Nigerian cement industry are elusive. This is what we know. Nigeria's population is apparently 170m. Its cement industry has the capacity to produce 28Mt/yr (Global Cement Directory 2013). Its production level was 18.5Mt/yr in 2012 according to CMAN. However figures compiled by the United States Geological Survey placed production much lower at 11.6Mt in 2011. Consumption is believed to be 17-20Mt/yr. In 2011 it was 17Mt. Ibete Cement, the sole importer into the country, is allowed to import up to 1.5Mt/yr.

Nigeria's main producers include Dangote (19Mt/yr capacity, 70% of the market), Lafarge WAPCO (4.6Mt/yr, 17%), Unicem (2.5Mt/yr, 9%) and Ashaka Cement (2Mt/yr, 7%).

Hype about Nigeria's potential as a cement-producing nation hinges upon its low per capita consumption (110kg) compared to some of its African neighbours and indicators of expected growth such as a housing deficit of 16 million homes.

CMAN boss Joseph Makoju addressed this head-on, blaming the high cost of haulage and energy. He said that the energy cost accounts for over 35% of the production cost and that the price of low pour fuel oil (LPFO) had risen by over 300% from US$0.16/l in 2009 to US$0.69/l in November 2012. It should be pointed out that Makoju is also the special adviser to the president of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote. Unsurprisingly he has advised the Federal Government to impose higher taxes on imported cement to discourage imports.

The production boom of recent years has been threatened by a weakening increase in demand. The gap between production and lower consumption estimates is around 1.5Mt. Dangote and Lafarge WAPCO's combined unsold stock at the end of 2012 was also just below 1.5Mt. Both figures are suspiciously close to the amount Ibeto is allowed to import annually. As usual, the easiest target is the cement importer. Dangote's political clout as a key Nigerian company, large-scale employer and all round African success-story will doubtless help its argument.

Yet if imports are really more competitive than Nigeria's domestic product how can the country possibly hope to export cement? Also this week Liberia announced it has relaxed its tariffs on cement. As luck would have it Dangote is building a new cement plant in the country. Sounds ideal for tricky import negotiations.

The outgoing chief executive of PPC (Portland Pretoria Cement) officer, Paul Stuiver, summed up the dilemma facing cement producers on the east coast of Africa. Building near the coast leaves you vulnerable to imports.

In a recent interview with the South African business weekly, 'Financial Mail', Stuiver said that imports are not a threat to African expansion, provided that a facility is not built within 200km of a port. Exactly the same issue was raised by Yves De Moor in his column in the November 2012 issue of Global Cement Magazine.

Countries along Africa's east coast receive imports, but Stuiver said that Africa's high logistics costs mean the prices increase steeply as the cement is transported inland. He commented that the markets in Mozambique and KwaZulu Natal in South Africa were especially vulnerable and that most imports to South Africa come through Durban. Unsurprisingly both of PPC's big recent investments have been in landlocked countries, Zimbabwe and Ethiopia respectively. In July 2012 it also tried to invest in CINAT, the Democratic Republic of Congo's state-owned cement producer.

The import issue to South Africa reignited last week when the South African National Regulator for Compulsory Specifications (NRCS) confirmed that it had confiscated 'sub-standard' cement imported from Vietnam. As we covered in August 2012 in this column this follows a row in July 2012 about whether cement from Pakistan's Lucky Cement was complying with South African standards.

Although standards still lead the argument, more honesty has emerged with the use of the word 'dumping' in the complaints. Stuiver explained that "...the price of cement from Pakistan, India and Vietnam is low because electricity, fuel and transport rates are subsidised." Whilst PPC can report that its revenue has risen by 9% to US$837m for the first nine months of 2012, complaints against foreign imports seem overly protective. In 2009 PPC confirmed the existence of a cartel in the country. PPC has even gone to the Advertising Standards Authority to stop imports with elephants on their bags!

With reports that Nigerian producer Dangote is building a new US$389m plant in South Africa, thoughts turn to what will happen once South Africa becomes 'self-sufficient' in cement, like Nigeria which has proudly announced this recently. Giant infrastructure projects are one way to use all that excess cement and this is what Lafarge WAPCO has been asking the Nigerian government to do recently, in a road building drive. Better transport links in South Africa would wreck Stuiver's maxim about not building near a port.

Two solutions from this week's news might appeal to the industry on the south and east coasts of Africa. The first is to use inventive export barriers just like the Bureau of Indian Standards have imposed to slow down exports from Pakistan. The second is to persuade importers to do what a North Korean ship reportedly did with its consignment of cement this week off the coast of Somalia: dump it in the sea.