Displaying items by tag: PCA

The Portland Cement Association (PCA) put out a positive forecast for residential housing in the US last week. PCA Chief Economist and Group Vice-President Edward J Sullivan announced that housing starts will increase by 20% to 1.2 million units in 2015 from around 950,000 units in 2014. Strong gains are also expected for 2016.

This is relevant because in previous forecasts growth has been pinned on residential construction demand where there was a lag in demand following the recession in 2008. The PCA has not said whether this improves on its last forecast from late 2014. At that time the US cement market in 2014 was expected to grow by 8% despite a late start to the building season and weaker than expected housing start figures. The latest release suggests that the PCA has become more optimistic about the number of houses being built.

Interestingly, Sullivan pointed out that the focus is on family homes, with high student debt levels excluding the millennial generation born in 1980 - 2000 and with the baby boomers now leaving the market. As an aside, it is worth mentioning that specifying millennials in relation to housing starts is pertinent outside the US also. In the UK, for example, age of first time house buyers has been steadily rising in recent years. This has implications for the construction market and the cement industry alike.

Back in the US, demographic trends are on the side of the cement producers, led by a rising population. Cement demand growth of around 8% is expected in 2015 and 2016. Forbes placed Houston, the location of last week's 2nd Global Well Cem Conference, as America's fastest-growing city. Census data show that it saw a population growth of 392,742 inhabitants in the metropolitan Houston area between 1 July 2010 and 1 July 2013. Put another way this amounted to an extra 10,909 people moving into town each month (!) during this period. That calls for a lot of cement as these people demand houses and infrastructure.

Unfortunately the fly in the ointment here is that the global price of oil has been falling since mid-2014 and Houston's growth is dependent on the oil industry and its associated industries. By extension the cement industry in Texas, the US's biggest producing state, is also vulnerable. Houston may be an extreme example but the PCA is already wondering what the implications of low oil prices will have on the US construction industry as a whole. To this end, Sullivan is set to forecast that short-term gains could be made in the housing market if the oil price stays low but it could have a negative effect if the low prices continue.

One question is whether the US housing market is already experiencing this boost yet. If it is, housing starts and cement production in 2014 may have been artificially stimulated by cheap oil. In this case cement production growth in the US over the next few years may be slower than expected. We'll have to wait and see what Sullivan predicts but in the meantime it might be worth delaying buying that nice new house in Houston.

US: Despite a late start to the construction season and weaker than expected housing start numbers, a recently released report from the Portland Cement Association (PCA) shows that cement consumption in the USA will meet 2014 forecast expectations.

The PCA's cement forecast remains essentially unchanged since the September 2014 forecast. "The United States' cement market is expected to grow by 8.2% in 2014, followed by similar rates of growth in 2015 and 2016," said PCA Chief Economist and Group Vice President Edward Sullivan. "However, minor adjustments have been made regarding the construction sub-sectors. Housing starts, for example, have been trimmed slightly compared to forecasts released earlier in 2014."

While single-family housing starts are not reaching projected levels, the report indicates a new emphasis on multi-family starts. Demographic trends and strict mortgage standards are pushing more potential homebuyers into rental units.

Additionally, the oil price environment has changed significantly since summer 2014 and these new impacts have been integrated into the forecast projections for the paving sector. Going forward, Sullivan noted that the underlying economic fundamentals are strengthening and are reflected in the labour market. Sustained gains in monthly job creation, stronger state and local tax receipts, more favourable return on investments for commercial building and stronger household formation can lead to stronger construction spending in 2015.

US: The PCA board of directors has elected Lafarge North America's CEO John Stull as its 2014 - 15 chairman. He succeeds American Cement Co's Cary Cohrs.

"This is an important time for the PCA to champion resilient construction and advocate for critical national infrastructure funding, both of which will ensure the vitality of the cement industry," said Stull, who in addition to being a long-standing director has co-chaired the PCA Manufacturing Technical Committee.

Over a 22-year Lafarge Group career, Stull has progressed through vice president and regional president roles for US, Latin American and Sub-Saharan African businesses. He holds a chemical engineering degree from the University of Akron and is a Harvard Business School executive management programme graduate.