Displaying items by tag: Price

A couple of stories have popped up this week regarding restrictions on cement imports. First, authorities in Taiwan have launched an anti-dumping investigation into Vietnamese cement. Secondly, and perhaps more surprisingly given its growing economy, the authorities in Kyrgyzstan are planning to ban overland imports of cement from within Central Asia. More on that later…

First, to the Far East, where Taiwan’s Trade Remedies Authority has launched an anti-dumping investigation into cement and clinker imported from Vietnam. It will assess imports covering the year from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2024 and target seven specific Vietnamese cement producers among others. The Vietnamese companies are mandatory respondents – they will be compelled to answer investigators’ questions.

Vietnamese cement has long been among the cheapest in the region due to the country’s drive to hit production targets, rather than simply meeting demand. The situation has resulted in a vast amount of cement available for export. This, coupled to Vietnam’s long, indented coastline, makes it easy to ship cement overseas.

Even with export volumes falling by 1.2% year-on-year to 31.3Mt in 2023, around a third of Vietnam’s capacity, this is a massive volume of cement - and it’s only getting cheaper. The average export value of Vietnamese cement and clinker fell from US$46-48/t at the start of 2023 to just US$31-32/t in May 2024, a decline of 30-35%. These changes have been due, in part, to an increase in tax on clinker exports from 5% to 10% on 1 January 2023 and an anti-dumping investigation launched by the Philippines in March 2023. Falling prices and volumes represent a ‘double-whammy’ for producers, several of which have announced that they made losses in the first half of 2024. Vicem’s top management said that challenges also arose at home due to a reduced demand following limited civil engineering projects and a stagnant real estate market.

It is easy to see why Taiwanese cement producers may feel threatened by the prospect of greater volumes of cheap cement on their doorstep. Taiwan only made 4.9Mt/yr of cement in the first half of 2024. With domestic prices in the region of US$65-70/t according to Cement Network, this provides a very attractive margin of US$33-39/t for Vietnamese producers to export to Taiwan. It will be interesting to see how far the country’s authorities are willing to go to protect the country’s producers and whether any anti-dumping policies lead to further falls in the landed volumes of Vietnamese cement.

Meanwhile, 4600km to the west, Kyrgyzstan has announced that it will enforce a six-month road import ban on several types of cement including Portland cement, alumina cement and slag cement. The ban, affecting both cement and clinker, will take effect on 1 October 2024 and last for six months. According to the State Statistical Committee of Kyrgyzstan, the country saw a 76% year-on-year increase in cement imports – mainly from Iran, Kazakhstan, China and Uzbekistan - between January 2024 and May 2024. The total import volume over the five months was 125,737t. For a country that made just 1Mt over the same period, this is a major change.

The overland import ban is more of a surprise than the Taiwan / Vietnam situation, as Kyrgyzstan recently reported that the North of the country was experiencing a ‘construction boom’ and cement shortages. However, two new plants due to start production in the coming months could help the country out... unless it too would like to export its newly-developed cement production capacity.

And here we arrive at a ‘classic’ impasse. From Pakistani cement in South Africa, to price arguments in West Africa, import bans in Central Asia and Vietnamese cement in Philippines and Taiwan, more and more exporters are finding that their markets are already self-sufficient in cement, with the US perhaps the notable exception. Soon there will be nowhere left for cement to be exported to. Are we at peak cement?

Chad: The Group Cement of Africa (CIMAF) plans to raise the production capacity of its Chad cement plant from 0.5Mt/yr to 0.7Mt/yr. Anas Sefrioui, President of CIMAF, conveyed this intention to Chad's President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, with the intention to meet market demands, reduce costs and create jobs. Sefrioui also announced that the official price of cement bags from the plant will be revised to alleviate public costs. The CIMAF cement plant in Lamadji, north of N'Djamena, commenced operations in June 2017.

Nigeria: The Joint Committee of the House of Representatives is investigating the sharp rise in cement prices in the country. Major industry players, including Dangote Cement and Lafarge Africa, must submit detailed production cost documents to justify the market price of cement. The committee plans to visit the production plants after reviewing these financial records to establish the cost of production and determine a fair price for cement. The inquiry covers production costs from 2020 to July 2024.

One committee member pointed out that Dangote Cement has continued to make significant profits despite sourcing most of its raw materials locally, and questioned why the price of cement keeps rising whilst producers continue to profit. In response, Dangote Cement’s Managing Director, Mr Arvind Pathack, attributed 95% of production costs to imports or foreign exchange impacts, noting significant increases in input costs and logistical challenges exacerbated by the poor state of infrastructure and foreign exchange limitations. The committee called for a review of company policies to potentially lower prices, criticising the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCC)’s inactivity in addressing the pricing issue.

Chair of the Committee, Jonathan Gaza, said “We are extremely hopeful that this engagement will lead to a reduction in the price of cement. FCCPC has slept on their functions so far; their inactivity and unresponsiveness to price is what has put Nigeria where we are today.”

A battle over cement pricing in Ghana reached a new stage this week when the Chamber of Cement Manufacturers (COCMAG) hit back at proposed government regulation. Frédéric Albrecht, the chair of the association, told a meeting that about 80% of local production costs linked to cement manufacture are related to the local currency exchange rate. So fixing the price would do little to address the main cause behind rises.

Albrecht was speaking at a stakeholders’ forum organised by the Ghana Chamber of Construction. The group was convened to discuss the government’s proposed Ghana Standards Authority (Pricing of Cement) Regulations 2024 that were formally presented in the country’s parliament in early July 2024. The association argues that the cement sector has not been consulted properly over the proposal and that introducing it could have negative consequences for the construction sector as a whole. It says that imported clinker is subject to numerous taxes and that the average price of cement has actually lagged behind the rate of inflation.

The government is dealing with an economic crisis that forced it to default on its external debts in 2022 and ask the International Monetary Fund for support. This has led to depreciation of the local currency and high inflation. Around the same time the authorities have also been attempting to regulate the cement sector more closely. In 2022 the Ghana Standards Authority (GSA) took action against a brand of cement, Empire Cement, that appeared to be on sale without any of the required permits. Then in the autumn of 2023 the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) shut down Wan Heng Ghana’s grinding plant in Tema after the company failed to pay a major tax bill. Action by the GSA followed when it shut down three more plants in the Ashanti Region - Xin An Safe Cement Ghana, Kumasi Cement Ghana and Unicem Cement Ghana - for using inferior materials in cement production.

In April 2024 a nine-member committee was established to monitor and coordinate the local cement industry. Notably, cement producers have been required to register with the committee in order to secure a licence to manufacture cement. Kobina Tahir Hammond, the Trade and Indus¬try Minister, then said in late June 2024 that the government wanted to intervene in cement pricing to protect consumers from what he described as the ‘haphazard’ increment in cement prices by manufacturers. A legislative instrument doing just that was presented in parliament on 2 July 2024. Around the same time the GSA reportedly threatened to close down ‘several’ more cement plants for non-compliance.

The cement industry in Ghana is particularly vulnerable to currency exchange effects as it is dominated by grinding plants. One integrated cement plant, Savanna Diamond Cement, was launched in the north of the country in the mid 2010s. However, this compares to 14 licensed grinding plants in the country reported in the local media. This includes units run by Ciments de l’Afrique (CIMAF), Dangote Cement, Diamond Cement (WACEM) and Heidelberg Materials subsidiary Ghacem and its CBI Ghana joint-venture amongst others. This makes it one of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with the most grinding plants, along with places such as Mozambique and South Africa. When the Ministry of Trade and Industry started a consultation on regulating the cement sector in late 2023 it calculated that the country produced 7.2Mt of cement in 2021 and that the country had an overcapacity of 3.5Mt. This gives the country an estimated cement production capacity of just below 11Mt/yr.

Some sense of the growing costs that the cement sector in Ghana is facing can be seen in the Ghana Statistical Trade Report for 2023. Clinker was the country’s third biggest import by value at US$206m. It was only exceeded by diesel and other automotive oil products. The Ghana Statistical Service reported that most of the country’s imported clinker in 2023 came from Egypt, South Africa and its neighbours in West Africa. Both Dangote Cement and Heidelberg Materials flagged up the country’s economy as being hyperinflationary in their respective annual reports for 2023.

Argument and counter-argument over cement pricing is prevalent around the world especially in Africa. Fellow West African country Nigeria, for example, has endured plenty of very public dialogue and debate about the price of cement. In Ghana’s case it seems more likely than not that factors beyond the control of the local cement companies are driving the prices given the grinding-dominated nature of the sector with lots of different companies involved. Negative currency effects and inflation look more likely to be driving cement prices than anything else, although one should always be wary of the potential for cartel-like behaviour by cement producers. The economic crisis in Ghana certainly fits the bill for the conventional introduction of price controls on selected commodities but getting the fine tuning right could be difficult in practice. Fixed prices will reassure consumers in the short term provided supplies hold. Beyond this the actual causes of the high cement prices should emerge in time.

Ghana: Minister of Trade and Industry, K Hammond, has presented the Ghana Standards Authority (Pricing of Cement) Regulations 2024 in Parliament. This legislative instrument aims to control cement prices in response to rising costs.

The legislation follows government efforts to persuade manufacturers to reduce prices and address public concerns over escalating costs, according to the Daily Guide Network. Despite opposition from the National Democratic Congress lawmakers and cement producers, the regulation will likely become law after a 21-sitting day period in Parliament. The new law will introduce a price stabilisation fund to ensure consistent cement prices across the country.

Mr Hammond said "For a long time, we haven’t seen cement prices de-escalating. It's always escalating. I think there's something fundamentally wrong with the pricing of cement in the country.”

Vietnam: The average export value of Vietnamese cement and clinker has dropped sharply in 2023 due to falling prices, with the average price for clinker declining to US$31-32/t in May 2024, from US$46-48/t in 2022. The Vietnam News Brief Service reports that the Ministry of Construction (MoC) has identified an increase in export tax from 5% to 10% starting 1 January 2023, and additional anti-dumping duties imposed by the Philippines in March 2023, as barriers reducing the global competitiveness of Vietnamese clinker.

In response, the MoC has proposed eliminating the export tax on clinker and revising policies to allow for VAT refunds on clinker exports. According to the MoC, resolving these tax and VAT issues is key to the success of Vietnamese clinker exports, which currently lag 20% behind international competitors,

Vietnam: Export prices for clinker and cement in Vietnam have dropped significantly in May 2024, impacting the construction industry and raising concerns among exporters. This decline is due to decreased international demand, intense competition, and evolving trade policies, according to the Vietnam News Brief Service. The Ministry of Construction noted that after a decade of growth, export volumes have fallen sharply since 2022, with exports dropping to 10.9Mt in 2023 from 15.2Mt the previous year. Only 5.4Mt is expected to be exported in the first half of 2024.

The Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA) has highlighted ongoing challenges, particularly influenced by the downturn in China’s real estate market and competitive pressures from Chinese cement surpluses. The VNCA has urged Vietnamese exporters to explore new markets, improve product quality and increase production efficiency. Additionally, the VNCA recommends that the government consider eliminating export taxes on clinker to mitigate these challenges.

India: Top executives from major cement manufacturers project stable prices and decreased costs for the fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25), with some anticipating moderate growth in demand. This follows an estimated 8-9% growth in cement demand for the FY24 in India.

During a recent post-earnings call, Atul Daga, CFO UltraTech Cement, said "Our belief is that the slowdown should be shorter than in earlier years, primarily because private sector housing has also picked up momentum."

Nigeria: The government has threatened to reopen borders for mass cement importation if local producers do not reduce prices. The Minister of Housing and Urban Development, Ahmed Dangiwa, said that the country had recently seen a ‘recurring and concerning increase in the price of cement’, according to the People’s Daily newspaper. Recent price hikes have threatened an agreement made in February 2024 to stabilise the price of cement. The government had previously halted cement imports to boost local production and affordability, yet producers cite high fuel and equipment costs as factors driving up prices.

The Cement Manufacturing Association of Nigeria has been criticised for its inaction in price regulation. Dangiwa said “The association is expected to monitor price control, otherwise it has no need to exist.”

UAE: Fujairah Cement has reported accumulated losses reaching over a third of its capital, primarily due to inflation and decreased revenue, according to Zawya. The total accumulated losses for the 2023 financial year stood at US$35.5m, equating to 36.68% of the company's capital, as disclosed on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange.

The company attributes the increase in losses to various factors, including the rising cost of coal and energy, lower clinker selling prices, a decline in revenue, and higher logistics and finance costs. The company is currently in advanced talks to appoint a renowned financial advisor for assistance in restructuring and exploring other potential options to mitigate these losses.

A separate disclosure highlighted that the major challenge faced during the year was the escalated production costs, primarily driven by increased coal and fuel prices.