Displaying items by tag: Production
Venezuela: Anti-corruption non-government organisation Transparencia Venezuela says that cement production at the country’s state-run plants dropped by 41% to 6Mt in 2015 from 10.2Mt in 2010. Four of these companies were only able to use 52% of their installed capacity between 2011 and 2015, according to the El Nacional newspaper. Fabrica Nacional de Cemento, Cemento Andino and Vencemos allegedly saw their production levels decline by 67%, 39% and 15% respectively over this period.
Peruvian cement production down so far in 2017
18 October 2017Peru: Cement production fell by 3% year-on-year to 7.3Mt in the first nine months of 2017 from 7.5Mt in the same period in 2016. Data from the Association of Cement Producers (Asocem) shows that the third quarter of 2017 is the first quarter where production rose so far during the year. This was due to a 4.3% increase to 0.88Mt in September 2017 from 0.85Mt in September 2016.
China: Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People's Bank of China, has described government targets for cutting excess capacity in the steel and cement industries as ‘optimistic.’ The Chinese government says it wants to cut steel and cement production capacity by around 10% but Zhou said he thought that might be difficult, given continued investment in urban housing and infrastructure, according to the Wall Street Journal. He made the comments at a seminar held by the Group of Thirty in Washington, US.
Pakistan cement sales rise in first quarter but exports down
05 October 2017Pakistan: Cement sales rose by 15% year-on-year to 10.3Mt in the first quarter of the local financial year that ended in September 2017 from 9Mt in the same period in 2016. However, the export part of this figure fell by 16.7% to 1.29Mt, according to the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA). Exports fell faster in the south of the country, where the country’s ports are based, with a significant drop in seaborne trade.
“Robust construction activities within the country are supporting the cement sector, but it is still sitting on some idle capacity that could be exported through government facilitations like sharing the transport cost,” said the APCMA to the Nation newspaper. It added that the government should cut duties on cement to encourage the residential sector.
Closing the demand gap in India
04 October 2017It’s been a pessimistic month for the Indian cement industry with Ministry of Commerce & Industry data showing that cement production has fallen year-on-year every month since December 2016. This was followed by the Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA) saying that the industry was sitting on 100Mt/yr of excess production capacity. Now, the credit ratings agency ICRA has followed the data and downgraded its forecast for cement demand growth to not more than 4% for the 2017 - 2018 financial year.
Graph 1: Annual cement production in India. Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry.
Graph 2: Monthly cement production growth rate year-on-year in India: Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry.
Graph 1 shows a production peak in the 2015 - 2016 financial year before falling monthly production broke the trend in the 2016 - 2017 period. Graph 2 pinpoints the month it started to go wrong, November 2016, when the government introduced its demonetisation policy. Production growth went negative the following month in December 2017 and it hasn’t managed to right itself since then and grow. It’s convenient to blame the government for the slump in production but it troughed in February 2017 before taking a lower level of decline since then.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) annual report in August 2017 suggests that the policy failed in its principal purpose of reducing the kind of corruption that a cash heavy economy can hide such as tax avoidance. People reportedly managed to find ways to bypass the bank deposit limit and may have successfully laundered large amounts of cash without being caught. However, as commentators like the Financial Times have pointed out, the longer term implications of forcing the economy towards digital payments and increasing the tax base could yet be beneficial overall.
Graph 3: Cement production capacity utilisation rates in India. Source: UltraTech Cement.
Moving on, the CMA has blamed production overcapacity for the current mess and Graph 3 shows the problem starkly. If anything the CMA appears to have downplayed the over capacity crisis facing India, as UltraTech Cement’s figures (using data from the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion) show an overcapacity of 155Mt in the 2016 – 2017 year and this will grow to a forecast 157Mt in the next financial year, even though the utilisation rate is expected to rise slightly. UltraTech Cement’s estimates don’t see the utilisation rate topping 70% until the 2020 – 2021 financial year. Analysts quoted in the Mint business newspaper concur, although they reckoned it would the rate would bounce sooner, in 2019 - 2020. Last month when the CMA moaned about the industry's excess capacity it pinned its hopes on infrastructure schemes like the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train. This prompted an official at JK Cements to say that he didn't think that one train line was going to make much of a difference.
This is one reason why ICRA’s and the other credit agencies’ growth rate forecasts for cement demand are important, because they indicate how fast India might be able to close the gap between production capcity and demand. Unfortunately demonetisation scuppered ICRA’s growth prediciton for 2016 – 2017. It forecast a rate of 6% but it actually fell by 1.2%! So downgrading its forecast for 2017 – 2018, with fears of weather and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the second half of the year, is ominious. Major cement producers such as Ultratech Cement and Ambuja Cement have based their road to recovery in their latest investor presentations on a 6% growth rate or higher. Pitch it lower and the gap doesn’t close. Here’s hoping for a brisk second half.
Chinese cement production slipping so far in 2017
04 October 2017China: Cement production has fallen by 0.5% year-on-year to 1.5Bt in the first eight months of 2017. This compares to a rise of 2.5% in the same period in 2016, according to data from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The Xinhua News Agency has also reported that the property sector stagnated in major cities due to government moves to prevent speculation.
Industria Nacional del Cemento aims for 75% market share in 2018
03 October 2017Paraguay: Jorge Mendez, the president of Industria Nacional del Cemento (INC), says that his company aims to reach a 75% market share by the end of 2018. Production and cement deliveries are expected to rise 77,500 bags/day by the end of 2017 from 55,000 bags/day and sales are forecast to rise by US$50m/yr. The state-owned cement producer plans to reach sales of 13.2 million bags in 2017.
Power cuts hits production at Udayapur Cement plant
27 September 2017Nepal: Regular power cuts have reduced production at the Udayapur Cement plant since mid-September 2017 leading to a loss of US$190,000. The cement producer says that it was doing ‘good business’ so far in the current financial year, according to the Rastriya Samachar Samiti news agency. The company was established in 1987 and it operates a cement plant at Jaljale in Udayapur. It produces cement under the brand name 'Gaida Cement.'
Update on Kenya – September 2017
06 September 2017ARM Cement’s declining fortunes this week may signal the end of the current growth cycle in the Kenyan cement industry. The cement producer posted a 20% year-on-year drop in its sales revenue to US$52m for the first half of 2017. Its financial returns have been turbulent since 2015. However, inward investment from the UK’s CDC Group in 2016 had appeared to help the company enabling it to pay of debts and even consider an upgrade project to the grinding capacity at its Athi River plant.
Graph 1: Cement production in Kenya for first half of year, 2013 - 2017. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.
Graph 2: Cement consumption in Kenya for first five months of year, 2013 - 2017. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.
Unfortunately it now appears that the Kenyan cement market may have peaked in 2016. As can be seen from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics figures in Graph 1 and 2, production hit a high of 3.31Mt in the first half of 2016 and it has fallen to 3.18Mt for the same period in 2017. Consumption too has fallen, to 2.5Mt for the first five months of 2017. At the same time the value of building plans approved by the Nairobi City Council dropped by 12% to US$1.02bn for the first five months of 2017 with falls in both residential and non-residential applications although the decline in residential was more pronounced. One of the country’s larger infrastructure projects, the Standard Gauge Railway from Mombasa to Nairobi entered its final stage of construction towards the end of 2016 with the completion of track laying.
Bamburi Cement has also reported falling revenue and profit so far in 2017. Its turnover fell by 8% to US$170 and its profit decreased by 36% to US$18m for the half year. Bamburi blamed it on a contracting market, low private sector investment leading to residential sector issues, delays in some infrastructure projects and droughts. The drought also hit the company’s operating profit via higher energy costs. On the plus side though Bamburi’s subsidiary in neighbouring Uganda did record a good performance.
It’s likely that the general election in Kenya in early August 2017 has slowed down the construction industry through uncertainty about infrastructure investment and general fears about political unrest. Thankfully these latter concerns have appeared unfounded so far but the memory of the disorder following the poll in 2007, where over 1000 people died, remains acute. And of course the 2017 election is not over yet following the intervention of the Supreme Court to nullify the result of the first ballot and call for a second. A longer election period with the impending rerun will further add to the pressure on the construction and cement industries.
An industry report on East Africa in February 2017 by the Dyer & Blair Investment Bank fleshes out much of the situation in the region. One particular point it makes though is that, as it stands at present, building materials may be too expensive to grow the market fully. Dyer & Blair suggest that lower construction costs and more affordable home ownership methods might be the key to driving low end housing demands and in turn this might grow cement consumption.
With lots of new production capacity coming online both locally and in neighbouring countries such as Uganda and Ethiopia, the Kenyan cement market faces the dilemma of trying to balance the medium to long-term demographics with the picture on the ground. Low per capita cement consumption suggests growing markets but if the demand isn’t present in the short term then the impetus for cement producers to expand shrivels especially with aggressive imports, rising energy costs and growing local competition. Once the election period finishes the picture will be clearer but the boom times may have abated for now.
BUA plant commissioning increases Nigeria’s capacity further
31 August 2017Nigeria: The Nigerian Vice President Yemi Osinbajo commissioned the 3Mt/yr second kiln line at the BUA Obu Cement plant at Okpella, Edo State on 30 August 2017. He had earlier performed the ground-breaking ceremony at the start of the construction phase of the line. Once the line is fully commissioned in early 2018, it will bring the plant’s capacity to 6Mt/yr.
"This project is a big boost to the Nigerian economy and it will provide employment opportunity for both the skilled and unskilled youths of this state and the country at large," said Osinbajo, adding that the plant's capacity would consolidate Nigeria's self-sufficiency in cement and be a big boost to the nation's export capacity