Displaying items by tag: UltraTech Cement

India: Integrated cement and grinding plants expansions by companies including Dalmia Bharat, JK Cement and Aditya Birla subsidiary UltraTech of an additional 23Mt/yr are set to bring India’s total installed cement capacity to 508Mt/yr by the end of 2020. Business Standard newspaper has reported that steady prices year-on-year and ‘softening input costs’ have facilitated the expansions in spite of a ‘flattish trend in industry-wide volume growth.’

India: The state government of Maharashtra has granted Aditya Birla Group subsidiary UltraTech Cement environmental clearance for a planned 16MW waste heat recovery (WHR) generator at its 3.6Mt/yr integrated Awarpur plant in Chandrapur district. Projects Today has reported that the state’s Environmental Impact Assessment Authority has also cleared the company’s plan to expand its Korpana coal-fired power plant in Chandrapur to 15MW from 10MW. The producer will place orders for construction contracts in February 2020.

India: Emami Group has indicated that it will receive bids for its cement division Emami Cement from mid-January 2020. Business Standard newspaper has reported that Aditya Birla’s UltraTech Cement is likely to submit an offer in the region of US$0.94bn for the company – over 20% lower than Emami Group’s previously projected evaluation of US$1.18bn for Emami Cement. It also reported the possible involvement of Switzerland-based LafargeHolcim’s Ambuja Cements in the upcoming auction.

India: Germany’s Gebr. Pfeiffer has won a supply contract with UltraTech for one MVR 6000 C-6. The mill can grind up to 370t/hr of mixed cements or 225t/hr of granulated blast furnace slag (GBFS). Gebr. Pfeiffer has stated that it is the 17th mill of its type in India. The company will assist its subsidiary Gebr. Pfeiffer (India) Pvt. Ltd. in commissioning the mill in early 2021.

It’s the end of the year so it’s time to look at trends in the sector news over the last 12 months. It’s also the end of a decade, so for a wider perspective check out the feature in the December 2019 issue of Global Cement Magazine. The map of shifting production capacity and the table of falling CO₂ emissions per tonne are awesome and inspiring in their own way. They also point towards the successes and dangers facing the industry in the next decade.

Back on 2019 here are some of the main themes of the year in the industry news. This is a selective list but if we missed anything crucial let us know.

European multinationals retreat

LafargeHolcim left the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, HeidelbergCement sold up in Ukraine and reduced its stake in Morocco and CRH is reportedly making plans to leave the Philippines and India, if local media speculation can be believed. To be fair to HeidelbergCement it has also instigated some key acquisitions here and there, but there definitely has been a feel of the multinationals cutting their losses in certain places and retreating that bit closer to their heartlands.

CRH’s chief executive officer Albert Manifold summed it up an earnings meeting when he said, “…you're faced with a capital allocation decision of investing in Europe or North America where you've got stability, certainty, overlap, capability, versus going for something a bit more exotic. The returns you need to generate to justify that higher level of risk are extraordinary and we just don't see it.”

The battle for the European Green Deal

One battle that’s happening right now is the lobbying behind the scenes for so-called energy-intensive industries in Europe as part of the forthcoming European Green Deal. The cement industry is very aware that it is walking a tightrope on this one. The European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) CO₂ price started to bite in 2019, hitting a high of Euro28/t in August 2019 and plant closures have been blamed on it. The rhetoric from Ursula von der Leyen, the new president of the European Commission, has been bullish on climate legislation and the agitation of Greta Thunberg internationally and groups like Extinction Rebellion has kept the issue in the press. Cembureau, the European Cement Association, is keen to promote the industry’s sustainability credentials but it is concerned that aspects of the proposed deal will create ‘uncertainty and risks.’ Get it wrong and problems like the incoming ban on refuse-derived fuel (RDF) imports into the Netherlands may proliferate. What the Green Deal ends up as could influence the European cement industry for decades.

The managed march of China

Last’s week article on a price spike in Henan province illustrated the tension in China between markets and government intervention. It looks like this was driven by an increase in infrastructure spending with cement sales starting to rise. Cement production growth has also picked up in most provinces in the first three quarters of 2019. This follows a slow fall in cement sales over the last five years as state measures such as consolidation and peak shifting have been implemented. The government dominates the Chinese market and this extends west, as waste importers have previously found out to their cost.

Meanwhile, the Chinese industry has continued to grow internationally. Rather than buying existing assets it has tended to build its own plants, often in joint ventures with junior local partners. LafargeHolcim may have left Indonesia in 2018 but perhaps the real story was Anhui Conch's becoming the country's third biggest producer by local capacity. Coupled with the Chinese dominance in the supplier market this has meant that most new plant projects around the world are either being built by a Chinese company or supplied by one.

India consolidates but watches dust levels

Consolidation has been the continued theme in the world's second largest cement industry, with the auction for Emami Cement and UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Century Textiles and Industries. Notably, UltraTech Cement has decided to focus its attention on only India despite the overseas assets it acquired previously. Growth in cement sales in the second half of 2019 has slowed and capacity utilisation rates remain low. Indian press reports that CRH is considering selling up. Together with the country's low per capita cement consumption this suggests a continued trend for consolidation for the time being.

Environmental regulations may also play a part in rationalising the local industry, as has already happened in China. The Indian government considered banning petcoke imports in 2018 in an attempt to decrease air pollution. Later, in mid-2019, a pilot emissions trading scheme (ETS) for particulate matter (PM) was launched in Surat, Gujarat. At the same time the state pollution boards have been getting tough with producers for breaching their limits.

Steady growth in the US

The US market has been a dependable one over the last year, generally propping up the balance sheets of the multinational producers. Cement shipments grew in the first eight months of the year with increases reported in the North-Eastern and Southern regions. Imports also mounted as the US-China trade war benefitted Turkey and Mexico at the expense of China. Alongside this a modest trade in cement plants has been going on with upgrades also underway. Ed Sullivan at the Portland Cement Association forecasts slowing growth in the early 2020s but he doesn’t think a recession is coming anytime soon.

Mixed picture in Latin America

There have been winners and losers south of the Rio Grande in 2019. Mexico was struggling with lower government infrastructure spending hitting cement sales volumes in the first half of the year although US threats to block exports haven’t come to pass so far. Far to the south Argentina’s economy has been holding the cement industry back leading to a 7% fall in cement sales in the first 11 months of the year. Both of these countries’ travails pale in comparison to Venezuela’s estimated capacity utilisation of just 12.5%. There have been bright spots in the region though with Brazil’s gradual return to growth in 2019. The November 2019 figures suggest sales growth of just under 4% for the year. Peru, meanwhile, continues to shine with continued production and sales growth.

North and south divide in Africa and the Middle East

The divide between the Middle East and North African (MENA) and Sub-Saharan regions has grown starker as more MENA countries have become cement exporters, particularly in North Africa. The economy in Turkey has held back the industry there and the sector has pivoted to exports, Egypt remains beset by overcapacity and Saudi Arabian producers have continued to renew their clinker export licences.

South of the Sahara key countries, including Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, have suffered from poor sales due to a variety of reasons, including competition and the local economies. Other countries with smaller cement industries have continued to propose and build new plants as the race to reduce the price of cement in the interior drives change.

Changes in shipping regulations

One of the warning signs that flashed up at the CemProspects conference this year was the uncertainty surrounding the new International Maritime Organistaion (IMO) 2020 environmental regulations for shipping. A meeting of commodity traders for fuels for the cement industry would be expected to be wary of this kind of thing. Their job is to minimise the risk of fluctuating fuel prices for their employers after all. Yet, given that the global cement industry produces too much cement, this has implications for the clinker and cement traders too. This could potentially affect the price of fuels, input materials and clinker if shipping patterns change. Ultimately, IMO 2020 comes down to enforcement but already ship operators have to decide whether and when to act.

Do androids dream of working in cement plants?

There’s a been a steady drip of digitisation stories in the sector news this year, from LafargeHolcim’s Industry 4.0 plan to Cemex’s various initiatives and more. At present the question appears to be: how far can Industry 4.0 / internet of things style developments go in a heavy industrial setting like cement? Will it just manage discrete parts of the process such as logistics and mills or could it end up controlling larger parts of the process? Work by companies like Petuum show that autonomous plant operation is happening but it’s still very uncertain whether the machines will replace us all in the 2020s.

On that cheery note - enjoy the winter break if you have one.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 8 January 2020

India: UltraTech’s 3.2Mt/yr integrated Rajashree plant in Aditya Nagar, Karnataka received its first petcoke delivery by rail, dispatched from Mangalore Refinery Private Limited (MRPL)’s new mechanised handling facility. The installation cost US$23.4m and can load 3600t of coke at a time into 59 cars, enabling it to process MRPL’s refinery’s 1.0Mt/yr quickly and in a way that reduces the load on road transport.

The National Council for Cement and Building Materials (NCB) International Seminar is running this week in New Delhi and this gives us a good opportunity to take a snapshot at the world’s second largest cement industry.

Data from the Ministry of Commerce & Industry shows comfortable cement production growth of 4.4% year-on-year to 255Mt in the first nine months of 2019. As graph 1 shows there was higher production growth in 2018 but this followed a decline in 2017, due to partly to the government’s demonetisation policy. October 2019 confirms a trend of falling year-on-year growth from August 2019 onwards following a peak growth rate in mid-2017.

Graph 1: Indian cement production in the first nine months of the year, 2015 – 2019. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Graph 2: Year-on-year change in monthly Indian cement production, 2017 – October 2019. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Analysts like ICRA have blamed the growth slowdown on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. By region in the six months from April to September 2019 it noted a slowdown in demand due to slowing government projects in northern, eastern and central areas. Labour concerns were reported in the north, centre and Gujarat in the west. Raw material shortages were picked up on such as water in Maharashtra and sand in the east and Andhra Pradesh. Positive growth was reported in Kerala, driven by post-flood reconstruction and low-cost housing schemes, and in Karnataka due to general construction activity. Broadly, UltraTech Cement, the country’s largest cement producer, in its November 2019 investor’s presentation, agreed with this assessment. It noted growth in the northern region and declines elsewhere. Like ICRA it too picked up on low cost housing declaring it to be a ‘key cement consumption driver.’

Away from the figures the main news stories have been continued consolidation such as the auction for Emami Cement and UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Century Textiles and Industries. The sale of the former for plants in east and central regions has been linked to all the major local producers, including those owned by LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement. A report in the Hindu newspaper last week quoted a source placing UltraTech Cement and Nirma Group as the frontrunners with a valuation of around US$700m and an announcement at some point in December 2019. Despite UltraTech Cement’s market dominance nationally, its 17% production share in the east is low compared to its presence elsewhere. Nirma Group’s subsidiary Nuvoco Vistas is one of the smaller producers but, notably, it picked up Lafarge India’s assets in 2016.

Investment in new production capacity has continued with announcements from both JSW Cement and HeidelbergCement in recent weeks about expansion plans well into the mid-2020s. This follows planned projects from Dalmia Bharat Cement and Ramco Cement as well as orders from the JK Cement and Shree Cement. This ties into the capacity growth forecasts of around 120Mt over a similar timescale that the analysts were predicting in the middle of 2019. JM Financial, for example, pinned most of this growth on the south followed by the east and north. However, The India Cements said in November 2019 that it was delaying its expansion projects in Uttar Pradesh due to slowing government spending.

As is usual for a country with a low per capita cement consumption, on the national scale, one of the tensions in the Indian cement industry has been the balance between the capacity utilisation rate and the commissioning of new capacity. Its utilisation rate was below 60% in 2018 and a number of producers started reporting the negative effects of higher input and raw materials costs on their financial results. Knowing when to stop and start capacity growth is critical in this kind of environment. Specifically in India’s case curveballs such as government action on pollution and the country’s growing need for imports of coal as well as a burgeoning waste fuels sector are factors to keep an eye on. Finally, general trends such as UltraTech Cement’s focus on the Indian market, despite buying assets outside the country, are also compelling to watch as it chooses to concentrate on just one country. There are parallels here with other similarly-sized multinational that have also been focusing on core markets elsewhere in the globe.

India: UltraTech Cement has announced a planned expansion of its Bhogasamundram waste heat recovery (WHR) power plant to 36MW from 20MW. The plant serves its 5.6Mt/yr integrated Andhra Pradesh cement plant. The upgrade is part of an investment of US$14.0m which will also serve to expand the area of the cement plant by 326 hectares.

As most of the larger cement producers have released their financial results for the third quarter of 2019 it’s time to see how they are doing so far this year.

Graph 1: Revenue from major cement producers, Q1 - 3 2019. Source: Company reports.

Graph 2: Cement sales volumes by major cement producers, Q1 - 3 2019. Source: Company reports.

LafargeHolcim is looking good, with rises in both its net sales and earnings on a like-for-like basis. The sale of its assets in South-East Asia earlier in the year and in 2018 may have appeared to reduce its figures, but the like-for-like growth suggests that the strategy its working. This has been driven by markets in Europe and North America as its other big market, Asia, has continued to slide. The latter vindicates the group’s decision to partly leave the region, in the short term at least. It’s also interesting to note that at the macro-scale LafargeHolcim’s ready-mixed concrete (RMX) sales fell by 1.3% on a like-for-like basis to 7.4Mm³ in the first nine months of 2019. What does this mean for a building materials company that has been moving towards the whole supply chain and concrete?

Anhui Conch Cement reported cement and clinker sales volumes of 202Mt in the first half of 2019, a 42% year-on-year growth for the same period in 2018. Its revenue increased by 42% year-on-year to US$15.9bn in the first nine months of 2019 from US$11.1bn in the same period in 2018, putting it ahead of Germany’s HeidelbergCement in sales terms. The group was coy on how it actually managed to boost its sales so fast in a country where cement sales only rose by 5% in the first half of the year. Yet, it did admit to slowing sales growth in West China in the first half. A 5% fall in fuel and power costs no doubt helped its profit margins also. Notably, its overseas sales nearly doubled to US$143m in the first half of 2019 or 2% of its total revenue.

HeidelbergCement’s financials were solid, with growing revenue, earnings and profits. This was balanced by falling cement and clinker sales volumes. Cement sales fell in all group regions with the exception of North America. However, it was able to boast about ‘positive results in all group countries in the third quarter except for Egypt’s. Company head Bernd Scheifele summarised the sitaution by saying that, “price increases and strict cost discipline more than compensated for the slightly weaker demand for our products in the third quarter.”

Of the building materials companies with larger revenues, Cemex has had a tougher time of it so far in 2019 with declining sales, cement volumes and earnings. In part this has been due to a poor market in Mexico, although chief executive officer (CEO) Fernando A Gonzalez said that the group believed that weak demand for their products was ‘bottoming out’ and that a new infrastructure program made them hopeful looking forward. The group’s Middle East and Africa region also caused concern with a 3% drop in sales volumes in the Philippines, one of its key South-East Asian territories.

Things to note from the smaller producers featured here are as follows. India’s UltraTech Cement says it is the world’s third largest cement producer outside of China. With an installed production capacity of over 100Mt/yr in India this may well be the case. The vast majority of this is based at home in India. Alongside this, its financial figures seem buoyant as it continues to integrate new acquisitions such as Century Textiles and Industries into the business. By contrast Africa’s Dangote Cement has endured mixed fortunes so far 2019 with a modest rise in cement sales volumes and small drop in revenue and a larger decline in earnings in both Nigeria and operations elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa. At home this has been attributed to a subdued economy and elsewhere it has pointed to poor markets in South Africa, Zambia and Ethiopia. On the positive side though promotional marketing activity at home in Nigeria helped support an improved third quarter.

Summarising all of this is difficult given the very different nature of these large companies. Generally most of these companies are growing. One takeaway to consider is the emergence of two types of cement producer models at the top end: multinationals and large-local players. In recent years the rise of the large-local player has been a story mirroring the economic prominence of China and India. One can also see it in places like Indonesia and Brazil. The worry is that these kinds of companies are more exposed to regional economic risks than multinational ones. Yet in 2019 some multinational cement producers are also having problems. Whatever else happens, if fears of a new global recession come true, then these larger scale producer models will be tested, possibly to breaking point. 

India: Ultratech has reported a profit after tax in the three months to 30 September 2019 of US$81.8m, up by 62.6% from US$50.3m in the third quarter of 2018. The company made sales of US$1.34bn in the period, a year-on-year improvement of 4.4% from US$1.28 over the same three months of 2018. In spite of nationwide monsoon flooding, which was heaviest in Ultratech’s key operating areas of Eastern and Central India, and depressed demand, the company consolidated its 117Mt/yr capacity with the acquisition of Century Cement in September 2019. Ultratech’s reliance on renewable power grew to 10.5% from 8.4% in the previous three months to 30 June 2019, cutting energy costs by 9.0%. During the period, Ultratech carried out annual maintenance across its installed capacity, resulting in a relatively low capacity utilisation and raising variable costs by 3.0% in comparison to the previous quarter. The company said that it is ready to meet normalised cement demand going forward, with the government’s commitment to a thrust in infrastructure spending bolstering positive expectations. Ultratech, the World’s third biggest cement company, is the only one to have a capacity greater than 100Mt/yr in a single country outside of China.