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Last week’s financial results from Çimsa contained a glimmer of hope for the Turkish cement market. Its net sales grew by 27% year-on-year to Euro175m in the first nine months of 2020 and operating profit more than doubled. Crucially, the balance between domestic and export sales tilted back a little toward the local market at a 55/45 ratio rather than 40/60 for the same period in 2019. Oyak Cement, another of the larger local producers, reported a similar rise in sales also. Akçansa Çimento, the joint venture between Sabancı Holding and HeidelbergCement, saw its sales fall slightly so far in 2020 but its profit grew. These financial results are all surprising given the currency and debt crisis the country faced in 2018 and now coronavirus in 2020.

Graph 1: Domestic and export cement sales in Turkey, January – July 2017 – 2020. Source: Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÇMB)

Graph 1 above shows the general picture of the Turkish cement industry for the first seven months of each year to put the data so far in 2020 into context. The general Turkish economy faced problems in the middle of the year when the value of the Turkish Lira dropped sharply in mid-2018 and interest rates rose sharply. Subsequently, annual cement sales fell by over 20% year-on-year to 56.5Mt in 2019. A couple of weeks ago the Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÇMB) said that the sector started 2020 optimistically with a recovery in January 2020. Coronavirus then hit, causing a contraction in the domestic market for the next four months. However, the construction market picked up again in June 2020 and this is expected to have continued into August 2020.

The cement sector previously pivoted to exports strongly with nearly a 50% bump up in exports to 11Mt in 2019. 2020 has been similar so far for the export market with a 40% rise year-on-year from January to July 2020 to around 9Mt. Much of these exports have gone to the US with local media and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) reporting that the North American country took 18% of Turkey’s Euro840m cement exports from January to September 2020. Focusing on international trade has not come without a price though. In September 2020 the Ukrainian government started an investigation into alleged dumping of cement by Turkish producers. Following a complaint by local producers, the Interdepartmental Commission for International Trade (ICIT) determined that: “imports were made to an extent and under conditions such that they may cause material injury to the domestic producer.” The results of the investigation remain to be seen, but Ukraine had no qualms in 2019 about slapping tariffs onto cement imports from Russia, Belarus and Moldova.

All of this leaves the Turkish cement producers relying, much as previously, on the export market to hold up sales while the domestic market recovers to 2018 levels. This is becoming riskier, given the growing number of rivals exporting cement around the world, particularly from around the Mediterranean, and with more countries like Egypt hoping to do likewise. Yet as long as favourite destinations like the US and Israel keep buying, Turkey should be okay. At home, the question remains whether the growth seen post-coronavirus measures in the spring is a sign of economic recovery or merely pent up demand. The country’s initial coronavirus response was praised internationally but signs of a second wave are present. Meanwhile the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed in October 2020 its earlier forecast of a 5% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) for Turkey in 2020. Much of the rest of the world is facing similar contractions in output or worse in 2020 but starting the year from a poor economic position is not enviable.

Brazil: Votorantim Cimentos’ consolidated net sales in the first nine months of 2020 were US$2.17bn, up by 23% year-on-year from US$1.76bn in the corresponding period of 2019. However, its profit fell by 61% to US$28.7m from US$73.9m

Cement sales in the third quarter of 2020 rose by 15% year-on-year to 9.7Mt from 8.4Mt in the third quarter of 2019. The company reported increased sales volumes in Uruguay, the US and Canada, and an 18% increase in Brazil, “maintaining the strong pace” recorded at the end of the first half of 2020. The company said, “The significant emergency aid from government during this period and its use in the direct purchase of construction inputs, including cement, has supported civil construction alongside the currently historically low interest rate. In addition, people continue to invest in improving their homes, with retail sales of building materials increasing nationally.”

The company’s third quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by 94% to US$281m in 2020 from US$145m in 2019. It said, “The economic opening after the initial restrictions of the Covid-19 pandemic is turning out more positively than anticipated on the third quarter of 2020, while the on-going recovery is projected to be gradual, considering the uncertain scenario. Currently, global gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to decrease 4% in 2020 - less severely than the previously published data, although uncertainty around the recovery path for upcoming years due to second wave of Covid-19 remains considerable in some countries, alongside viability of additional fiscal and monetary stimulus.”

Spain: Cementos Portland Valderrivas has made a donation worth Euro3000 of nappies and baby food to the Alcala de Guadaira Social Services Centre. The Association of Children's Resources Ropero del Socorro de la Hermandad de Jesus, Cáritas and the Red Cross will be responsible for distribution.

The company said that it was “aware of the severity of the crisis that Covid-19 is generating, so decided to contact the Alcalá de Guadaíra City Council to make itself available to them and find out in which area the greatest needs were located.” It said, “As a result of this coordination, it was agreed to donate basic children's products, such as food and nappies.”

Colombia: Grupo Argos subsidiary Cementos Argos has reported a 13% year-on-year fall in cement sales volumes to 10.7Mt in the first nine months of 2020 from 12.3Mt in the first nine months of 2019. As a result, revenues fell by 5% to US$1.85bn from US$1.94bn, “partially netted by the price improvements in Colombia and in the US, together with the Colombian peso devaluation.” Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell by 3% to US$342m from US$353m. The company said that, “Volumes were affected by the hurricanes and intense rains in the US, together with the gradual recovery of the Colombian operations that still remain affected by the lockdowns.”

Chief executive officer (CEO) Juan Esteban Calle said, “We are proud of our company and our more than 7500 employees for their commitment and resilience navigating all the challenges generated by the Covid-19 crisis. We have been able to continue operating in a bio-safe way while significantly mitigating the impact of extended shutdowns in most of our operations and at the same time we have been taking advantage of all the opportunities that are arising from the improving market dynamics, contributing to the recovery of the economies and employment in most of our markets.”

2020 has been a year like no other and this clearly shows in the financial results of the major cement producers so far.

The first jolt is that several major Chinese cement producers have seen their sales fall. Following a tough first quarter due to coronavirus, the Chinese industry then overcame floods in the summer, to eventually report a decrease in cement output of 1.1% year-on-year to 1.68Bnt in the first nine months of 2020. The world’s largest cement producer, CNBM, reported a slightly smaller drop in sales year-on-year in the first nine months of 2020. This relatively small fall, just below 1%, may be due to CNBM’s size and diversity of business interests. Other large Chinese producers have noted bigger losses, such as Huaxin Cement’s 9% sales decline to US$3.04bn and Jidong Cement’s 5% sales fall to US$3.8bn. However, Anhui Conch actually saw a 12% rise in sales to US$18.7bn.

Graph 1: Sales revenue from selected cement producers, Q1 - 3 2020. Source: Company reports.

Graph 2: Cement sales volumes from selected cement producers, Q1 - 3 2020. Source: Company reports.

LafargeHolcim’s sales look worse in Graph 1 than they really are because the group was busy divesting assets in 2019. Its net sales fell by 7.9% on a like-for-like basis to US$18.7bn in the first nine months of 2020, a rate of change similar to HeidelbergCement’s. Being a properly multinational building materials producer brings mixed benefits given that these companies have suffered from coronavirus-related lockdowns in different times in different places but they have also been able to hedge themselves from this effect through their many locations. In the third quarter of 2020, for example, LafargeHolcim was reporting recovering cement sales in its Asia-Pacific, Latin America and western/central parts of its Europe regions but problems in North America. Again, HeidelbergCement noted a similar picture with cement deliveries up in its Africa-Eastern Mediterranean Basin Group area, stable in Northern and Eastern Europe-Central Asia and down elsewhere. How the latest round of public health-related lockdowns in Europe round off a bad year remains to be seen.

The other more regional producers are noteworthy particularly due to their different geographical distribution. Cemex has seen a lower fall in sales revenue and cement sales volumes so far in 2020, possibly due to its greater presence in North America. What happens in the fourth quarter is uncertain at best, with US coronavirus cases rising and the Portland Cement Association (PCA) expecting a small decline in cement consumption overall in 2020. Along similar lines, Buzzi Unicem appears to have benefitted from its strong presence in Germany and the US, leading it to report a below 1% drop in sales revenue so far in 2020, the lowest of the decreases reported here for the western multinational cement companies.

Looking more widely, UltraTech Cement, India’s largest producer, had to contend with a near complete government-mandated plant shutdown in late March 2021. The figures presented here are calculated for comparison with other companies around the world due to the difference between the standard calendar financial year (January to December) and the Indian financial year (April to March). However, they suggest that Ultratech Cement suffered a 14% fall in sales to US$3.9bn and an 8% decline in sales volumes to 56Mt, among the worst decline of all the companies featured here. This is unsurprising given that UltraTech mostly operates in one country. Sure enough it bounced back in its second quarter (June – September 2020) with jumps in revenue, earnings and volumes.

Finally, for a view of a region that hasn’t had to face coronavirus-related economic disruption of anything like the same scale, Dangote Cement has reported solid growth so far in 2020, with rises in sales and volumes both above 5%. Economic problems at home in Nigeria have seen relatively higher growth elsewhere in Africa in recent years but now the pendulum has swung back home again. The big news has been that the company has pushed ahead with plans to turn Nigeria into a cement export hub, with a maiden shipment of clinker from Nigeria to Senegal in June 2020. The vision behind this has expanded from making Nigeria self-sufficient in cement from a few years ago into making the entirety of West and Central Africa cement and clinker ‘independent.’

The big news internationally this week was of the reported effectiveness of a Covid-19 vaccine in early trials by Pfizer and BioNTech. It might not yet make it into people’s arms at scale but it shows that the vaccine appears to work and that others in development and testing may do too. Building material manufacturer share prices didn’t rally as much as airlines or cinema chains on the news, construction has carried on after all, but this is a positive sign that normality for both health and wealth is on the way back at some point in 2021. One point to consider, given the wide regional variation with the economic effects of coronavirus, is what effect a disjointed global rollout of a vaccine or vaccines might have. A building material manufacturer dependent on a region that stamps out the virus later than other places might face an economic penalty. Recovery seems likely in 2021 but it isn’t guaranteed and the implications of the coronavirus crisis seem set to persist for a while yet. Here’s hoping for a different outlook at this point in 2021.

Thailand: SCG’s revenue from its cement-building materials business fell by 6% year-on-year to US$4.33bn in the first nine months of 2020. The group attributed this to poor demand resulting from coronavirus-related lockdowns. However, its earnings before interest, taxation, deprecation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the division rose by 9% to US$590m due to cost savings and lower energy prices. Overall, the group reported a similar picture with sales down but earnings up. National cement sales volumes rose slightly in the third quarter of 2020.

Turkey: Çimsa’s net sales grew by 27% year-on-year to Euro175m in the first nine months of 2020. Its operating profit more than doubled to Euro37.1m. Local sales grew faster than export sales in the reporting period but export revenue remains greater than domestic revenue. Chief executive officer (CEO) Umut Zenar reflected this when he praised the company’s strong export performance despite the challenges posed by coronavirus.

India: JK Cement recorded sales of US$339m in the first half of the 2021 financial year, down by 3% from US$348m in the first half of the 2020 financial year. Profit after tax for the period rose by 15% to US$40.6m from US$35.4m, partly due to a 5% decrease in total expenses to US$285m from US$301.

In comments about the coronavirus pandemic the group said, “With gradual resumption of overall economic activities, operations have started moving towards normalcy."

France: LafargeHolcim subsidiary Lafarge France says that it will continue to provide its regular service to customers as operations continue into a second national coronavirus lockdown in 2020. This was made possible by the government’s decision to permit the continuation of construction and industrial activities, according to the company.

It said, “The company has learned a lot since the containment last spring and is prepared to guarantee the best possible service for all of its markets, even under the specific conditions linked to the acceleration of the Covid-19 epidemic. All activities - cements, concretes and aggregates - will therefore operate normally throughout the country.” It added, “All our sites are now showing sufficient stock levels to deal calmly with the coming months.”

Eurocement changed owners this week when Sberbank took control of the company’s parent organisation. Due to a ‘difficult financial situation’ the state-owned bank said it had consolidated 100% of the shares of Eurocement’s parent company GFI Investment Limited. It’s uncertain quite how difficult this situation is but in 2016 the cement producer owed the bank Euro700m. Local media agency RosBiznesConsulting (RBC) reported in September 2020 that the ‘problem borrower’ that had caused a record increase in overdue debt at Sberbank in July 2020 was none other than Eurocement. Whilst Sberbank has said so far that it does not have operational control of the group, it is seeking a strategic investor for the asset.

This is a major story given that Eurocement is Russia’s largest cement producer and it operates 19 cement plants Russia, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. It said it produced 16.5Mt of cement domestically in 2019 but this compares to a production capacity of around 50Mt/yr suggesting a considerably low utilisation rate of just one third! The producer has embarked on a modernisation programme in recent years but many of its plants are old and use wet-process production lines.

2019 finally saw the Russian cement market turn around following decline since 2015. Unfortunately, CM Pro reports that cement production in Russia as a whole fell by 5% year-on-year to 25.1Mt in the first half of 2020. Cement shipments fell by a similar rate. This trend appears to have carried on through July and August 2020. Cement consumption has fallen fairly uniformly in most regions with the exception of the Northwestern Federal District, which has seen a modest increase. In the middle of the year, Soyuzcement - the Union of Russian Cement Producers, was expecting wildly different scenarios ranging from falls of up to 10% in a negative situation to rebound of up to 3% in a positive one. It was pinning its hopes on government support for the construction industry in various ways. With the trend to August 2020, record breaking numbers of new coronavirus cases in early November 2020 and the onset of winter, it seems unlikely that Soyuzcement’s positive thinking will come to pass.

With this in mind who might want to buy into Eurocement? No doubt various private equity firms and local producers are watching the oil price carefully while they plan their next move. Internationally, LafargeHolcim seems the obvious western multinational contender with a presence in the country. Yet it seems unlikely it would want to take the risk, following its departure from certain regions like South-East Asia in recent years and persistent rumours about other divestment targets. HeidelbergCement’s balance sheet, credit lines and appetite for risk might not yet withstand a major investment in Russia. Buzzi Unicem has actually been expanding recently with an acquisition in Brazil but whether it’s prepared to bet on another market disrupted by coronavirus is unknown. China National Building Materials Group Corporation (CNBM) was reportedly planning on becoming a shareholder of Eurocement Group in 2016 but this may have just been bluster surrounding geopolitical links between Russia and China, and general cooperation between the companies on upgrading Eurocement’s old production lines. However, Russia is the next location in China’s Belt and Road initiative so it’s not ridiculous. Whoever steps up can expect the Russian government to take a keen interest, depending on how much control Sberbank wants to offer up of Eurocement. The story continues.