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Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote was spotted attending the inauguration ceremony of Kenyan President William Ruto earlier in September 2022. This is relevant because Dangote’s cement company previously announced plans in 2016 to build two 1.5Mt/yr plants in Kenya, near Nairobi and Mombasa respectively. They were intended to become operational by 2021. Unfortunately, Dangote himself allegedly described Kenya as being more corrupt than Nigeria to Kenyan broadcast journalist Jeff Koinange a few years later and nothing more happened. Back in 2014 Ruto visited Dangote Cement’s Obajana plant in Kogi state in Nigeria when the politician was the Deputy President of Kenya. Dangote’s attendance at the presidential inauguration this month suggests at the very least that his relationship with Ruto remains active. Maybe more news on those planned plants will follow.

Graph 1: Cement in Kenya, 2018 – June 2022. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

The reason why the owner of Africa’s largest cement company might be interested in the Kenyan market can be seen in its latest cement production figures. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that production for the first half of 2022 grew by 20% year-on-year to 4.95Mt in the first half of 2022, from 4.12Mt in the same period in 2021. Cement production was broadly similar in 2018 and 2019 at around 6Mt. It then increased by 25% to 9.25Mt in 2021 from 7.41Mt in 2020. On a rolling annual basis, production picked up at the start of 2020 and has risen consistently since then each month, peaking at over 10Mt in May 2022.

However, the elections in August 2022 probably slowed this growth trend, despite being much more peaceful than those in 2007, although the KNBS is yet to release the data. Bamburi Cement said in its outlook for the second half of 2022 that it expected markets to recover after the ballot. The subsidiary of Holcim reported increasing turnover in the first half of 2022, due to mounting sales volumes and price rises, but its profit fell sharply. It blamed this on fuel and logistics inflation, growing clinker import costs as well as negative currency exchange effects.

That last point about imported clinker is worth noting given that a government report in late 2021 found that the country had a clinker shortage of up to 3.3Mt/yr. Yet, the KNBS data in recent years shows that cement production and consumption are broadly similar, suggesting that the shortfall in clinker is being imported. The report added that 59% of the imported clinker originated from Egypt, tariff free, due to a free trade agreement. Local producers were reported to have been operating at a 65% capacity utilisation rate. Egypt and the UAE accounted for most of the imported clinker followed by Saudi Arabia. An interview in the Standard newspaper at this time with Bamburi Cement’s managing director Seddiq Hassani revealed that, despite locally produced clinker being cheaper than imported clinker, some producers were reluctant to hand control of a key input material over to their local competitors. Other producers, predictably, were trying to persuade the government to raise the duty on imports of clinker from 10% to 25%. Tariff discussions have continued in 2022.

So far in 2022 the other big stories in the sector have included Bamburi Cement’s plans to build two solar power plants and a major repair to the kiln shell at East Africa Portland Cement’s (EAPCC) Athi River cement plant. The solar plants will be built next to Bamburi Cement’s integrated Mombasa plant and its Nairobi grinding plant. Once operational in 2023 they are anticipated to supply up to 40% of the cement producer’s total power supply. Devki Group, the owner of National Cement, also announced plans in August 2022 to set up a wind farm near Mombasa. However, this seems more like an attempt to diversify the group into electricity production rather than to supply its own plant near Nairobi. EAPCC’s upgrade project has completed this week after about a month and half of work. It is intended to increase the plant’s cement production by 50%.

Cement production started in rise in 2020 but the Covid-19 pandemic may have constrained this. Production (and consumption) then jumped up in 2021 and looks set to do similar in 2022 bar a possible blip from the elections in August 2022. This is despite the global market issues arising from the end of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. These may be uncertain times but the fundamentals for the Kenyan cement market look positive despite rising end prices. Unsurprisingly, it looks likely that Dangote Cement remains keen to extend its business to Kenya.

The larger cement producers in China have published their half-year financial results and the numbers are looking grim. Starting with data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, cement output in the country fell by 14.5% year-on-year to 979Mt in the first half of 2022 from 1.14Bnt in the same period in 2021. This is the lowest first half output figure since 2012. The decline on a monthly basis started in May 2021 and has carried on consistently since then. Rolling cumulative annual output hit a low of 2.18Bnt in July 2022, the lowest figure since at least the start of 2019 and well before the coronavirus pandemic started.

Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2022. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

The financial figures from the cement producers have mostly followed this trend. Of the companies covered here, Anhui Conch’s drop in sales revenue was the most distinct at 30% year-on-year to US$8.14bn. However, Jidong Cement actually managed to increase its revenue and Huaxin Cement’s decrease was fairly small, possibly due to its growing stable of overseas projects. None of these companies could avoid falling cement and clinkers sales volumes though. Again, Anhui Conch is the outlier here with a larger fall in sales volumes proportionally at nearly 40% compared to around 20% for the rest. Chen Bolin, the deputy secretary-general of China Cement Association (CCA), told the 21st Century Business Herald newspaper that of the 20 or so listed cement companies that have published their half-year reports by the end of August 2022, more than half had reported falling sales revenue and net profit and only one company had managed to increase its net profit.

Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports. Note: Cement revenue shown only for CNBM & Taiwan Cement.

Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

The financial reports from the Chinese cement companies detailed here have been fairly light on the reasons for the current state of the sector. Repeated coronavirus outbreaks, instability in the real estate market, a lack of funding for infrastructure projects, growing energy and raw materials costs, pressure on prices and a generally weak economy have all been blamed for the situation. Media channels outside of China have continued to scan the country’s real estate sector for signs of collapse following Evergrande’s problems in 2021. However Chen Bolin diplomatically held back by describing the real estate market as not yet stabilised and a drag on cement demand. Instead he hoped that large-scale infrastructure projects would offer some form of relief.

One last point to note, that both the CCA has made and could be seen in some of the company reports, is that some of the Chinese cement companies are already starting to diversify their businesses. This is in parallel to what some of the larger western-based multinational cement producers have also been doing in recent years with forays into concrete, light building materials and construction chemicals. CNBM already has large concrete, light building materials and engineering subsidiaries. However, Huaxin Cement and Anhui Conch have also started to branch out recently into aggregates, concrete and new energy generation, in the case of the latter company. Things may get worse before they get better, especially depending when or if the Chinese government decides to act on the real estate market. However, whatever kind of adjustment the cement sector may face, there are some signs present already of what some of the companies may do next.

Congratulations are due to the National Cement Company of Alabama and Vicat for the inauguration of the new production line at the Ragland cement plant in Alabama. The event took place on 21 July 2022.

The US$300m project was originally announced in late 2019. It then took two years to build with construction starting in January 2020. Key features include a raw vertical grinding mill, a new roller mill, a five stage preheater tower, an automatic clay storage system, a 78m tall homogenisation silo, an alternative fuels storage area for tyre-derived fuel, sawdust and wood chips, a laboratory and a new control room. The new kiln was previously reported to have a clinker production capacity of 5000t/day and it will add up to 2Mt/yr of cement production capacity to the plant. ThyssenKrupp signed up as the principal equipment supplier in 2019 and H&M was the main contractor. The production line is expected to reduce energy consumption by one third. Further change is scheduled with a switch to production of Portland limestone cement (PLC) from Ordinary Portland cement (OPC) by the start of 2023.

Vicat has repeatedly noted its affection for the plant as it was the first cement plant the group purchased outside of France, back in 1974. Indeed, Vicat’s group chair and chief executive officer Guy Sidos personally managed the Ragland plant in 2001. However, rather more prosaic reasons may also have been behind the decision to expand Ragland. According to United States Geological Survey (USGS) data, Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee’s cement shipments grew by nearly 5% year-on-year to 7.1Mt in 2019 from 6.8Mt in 2018. Shipments are up by 3% year-on-year to 2.5Mt in the first four months of 2022 and the three states were the fifth largest region in the US for cement shipments in April 2022. A shortage of cement was also reported in Alabama in April 2022.

The other big US-based cement plant expansion is Lehigh Hanson’s US$600m upgrade to its Mitchell plant in Indiana. It also celebrated a milestone this week with a ‘topping out’ ceremony to mark the placement of the final section of steel for the stack. Another recent achievement here was the completion of a 169,000t storage dome supplied by Dome Technologies. The supplier says that the 67m diameter and 48m tall dome is the second largest clinker storage facility in Europe and North America, after one it previous built in Romania in 2008.

The Mitchell K4 project was announced in mid-2018 and then ground breaking began in late 2019. However, the start of the coronavirus pandemic delayed construction in early 2020 before it restarted in September 2020. The revised commissioning date was then moved back about half a year to early 2023. The key part of this project is that it will replace the plant’s three current kilns with just one. The new production line will increase the site’s production capacity, reduce energy usage and decrease CO₂ emissions per tonne of cement. It was reported by local press back in 2018 that the project would increase the plant’s cement production capacity to 2.8Mt/yr. The project has been linked to supplier KHD with CCC Group as the contractor.

It’s fascinating to see two major new upgrades to cement plants emerging in a mature market like the US and during an unprecedented event like the emergence of coronavirus. No doubt compelling tales will emerge of how both teams coped with managing nine-figure capital expansion projects as a global public health emergency unfolded. The US market has been on a roll in recent years, despite all the uncertainty in the world, and so far it doesn’t seem to be slowing down. With luck both of the projects feature above have timed their opening right.

China: Fitch Ratings expects West China Cement to record a first-half sales decline of 10% in 2022, due to ‘sluggish’ residential construction, on-going Covid-19 restrictions and high coal costs due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The rating agency predicted a ‘mid-single digit’ full-year sales decline in 2022, with a gross profit margin for the group of 28%, compared to 30% in 2021. This probability results from higher costs arising from overseas investments during the year.

Vietnam: High costs have resulted in the cancellation of four planned new integrated cement lines by a local cement producer. Viet Nam News has reported that the producer in question presently faces costs of US$59.9 - 64.1/t cement, with a net loss of US$8.55 - 10.30/t. Coal prices are US$237/t, more than triple those at the start of 2022 of US$85.5/t. Gypsum and diesel prices rose by 50% over the first half of 2022. The producer reportedly attributed the coal price rise to the effects of the Covid-19 conflict and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Vietnam: Brokerage company Mirae Asset Securities Vietnam (MASVN) expects cement producers that specialise in exports to switch to the domestic market due to reduced demand in China. The export market to China has slowed down due its Zero-Covid policy and a reduced real estate market, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper. Major local exporters include Vissai Ninh Binh, Hoang Mai and Thanh Thang. China accounted for 40% of Vietnam’s cement exports in 2021. If these companies switch to the local market then it is expected to create more competition for producers that are more domestically aligned, including Vicem Ha Tien, FICO and Holcim Vietnam

Ghana: Alan Kyerematen, the Minister for Trade and Industry, has blamed the increasing price of cement on negative currency exchange effects and growing fuel prices. He informed the Parliament of Ghana that the cost to import clinker has risen significantly, according to the Ghana News Agency. Kyerematen also noted that the cost of freight has surged due to the coronavirus pandemic and then the war in Ukraine.

US: Eagle Materials has recorded consolidated sales in its 2022 financial year of US$1.9bn, up by 15% year-on-year. The group’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) was US$657m, up by 15%. Full-year cement sales totalled US$1bn, up by 7%, with operating earnings of US$260m, up by 11%. The group’s cement volumes rose by 1% to 7.5Mt.

President and CEO Michael Haack said "As we look back on another extraordinary year, I am extremely proud of our team's ability to deliver record operating and financial results despite multiple external challenges, including transportation disruptions, supply chain constraints and, of course, continuing to navigate the Covid-19 pandemic.” He added "As we begin our new fiscal year, Eagle is well-positioned, both financially and geographically, to capitalise on the underlying demand fundamentals that are expected to support steady and sustainable construction activity growth over the near and long term. We expect that infrastructure investment should increase in the latter part of our fiscal year, as federal funding from the recently enacted Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act begins in earnest. And, despite recent interest rate increases, housing demand remains strong across our geographies, outpacing the supply of homes. Nonresidential construction activity is also picking up."

Malaysia: Investment holding company Borneo Oil has concluded a deal with MT 23 Resources for the acquisition of a 22% stake in Makin Teguh.The deal will bring Borneo Oil's total holding in the cement company to 38%. Makin Teguh is in the process of establishing an integrated cement plant in the state of Sabah.

Borneo Oil said “There is synergy between the group's existing limestone quarrying business operations and Makin Teguh's clinker and cement plant. The outlook for Sabah's clinker and cement industry is favourable, given the high cement prices in Sabah compared with the rest of Malaysia and its proximity to the East ASEAN Growth Area." It added “The Covid-19 shutdowns in 2020 and 2021 created an unprecedented urgency for Sabah to become more self-reliant in various sectors of economic importance. Sabah can no longer afford to rely on 100% imported clinker and cement, and, therefore, the setting up of a clinker and cement plant in Sabah is timely.”

Philippines: Holcim Philippines has donated 3000 Covid-19 vaccinations to the Lorma Medical Center in San Fernando, La Union. The Business Mirror newspaper has reported that the company aims to help increase inoculation levels in remote parts of the province, at a time when tourism is beginning again.

Vice president and head of communications and corporate social responsibility Cara Ramirez said “We are thankful to the Lorma Medical Center for being our partner in providing vaccines to our neighbours in La Union. We are hopeful that this donation will further strengthen the province's resilience against the disease as we enter summer and tourism once again booms. While the pandemic appears to be easing, we need to remain vigilant and encourage everyone to avail themselves of the vaccines to be more protected.”