Displaying items by tag: coronavirus

France: Vicat’s full year results for 2022 show a 16.6% year-on-year rise in consolidated sales, from Euro3.12bn to Euro3.12bn. Its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBIDTA) came to Euro570m, a 7.9% fall compared to Euro619m in 2021. Its net income for 2022 was Euro156m, a fall of 23.6% year-on-year from Euro204m in 2021.

Commenting on these figures, Guy Sidos, the Group’s chair and chief executive officer, said “In 2022, the Vicat Group demonstrated resilience amid tough conditions. Faced with an unfavourable basis of comparison as a result of the sharp post-Covid rebound in business trends during 2021, a very strong increase in energy costs and non-recurring industrial costs in the US, France and India, we responded rapidly, raising our selling prices significantly across almost all the markets in which we operate to offset the impact of inflation. We have made progress with our policy of lowering our greenhouse gas emissions by harnessing existing solutions and investing in technologies that will enable us to reach our new 2030 targets.”

Vietnam: Analysis by SSI Research forecasts that the reopening of the Chinese economy, following its change in public health policy towards Covid-19, should increase cement exports in the second half of 2023. If this happens it is expected to reduce competition between producers in central and northern regions, according to the Việt Nam News newspaper. Signs of a recovery in cement exports to China were already noted in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, an increase in clinker export tariffs from the start of 2023 may presents a fresh issue for the producers. Cement and clinker exports from Vietnam fell by 29% year-on-year to 31.7Mt in 2022.

China: Anhui Conch Cement has reported a provisional net profit of US$2.07 - 2.46bn. Dow Jones Institutional News has reported that this would correspond to a decline of 50 - 58% year-on-year from 2021 levels.

Bolivia: The Bolivian National Institute of Statistics (INE) recorded total national cement production of 3.3Mt during the first 10 months of 2022, up by 12% year-on-year from 2.9Mt in the corresponding period of 2021. Meanwhile, cement sales rose by 5.6% year-on-year to 3Mt, from 2.84Mt. Compared to 2019 volumes, cement sales fell by 5.6% from 3.96Mt. Nonetheless, Bolivian Cement and Concrete Institute (IBCH) general manager Marcelo Alfaro said that the results 'consolidated the rebound' that began in 2021. Cement sales volumes previously dropped by 23% year-on-year to 3.03Mt in 2020, amid successive Covid-19 lockdowns.

Fábrica Nacional de Cemento (FANCESA) commercial manager Álvaro Cuéllar said "FANCESA is making the necessary efforts to meet its share of the domestic market." Cuéllar added "We are close to 9Mt/yr of capacity for a market that in 2019 approached 4Mt/yr. That is why we have many kilns stopped and the industry is working at half speed."

China: Chongqing Sifang New Materials says that it has resumed cement production at all sites following the end of the latest round of Covid-19 lockdown restrictions. The producer says that it brought capacity back online in a progressive manner.

Thailand: Siam Cement Group (SCG) recorded total national cement consumption growth of 6% year-on-year throughout the first nine months of 2022. The producer partly attributed the comparatively high figure to nationwide building site closures during the first nine months of 2021. In its management discussion and analysis of its third quarter 2022 results, the group noted commercial construction as the main driver of demand growth. Its cement consumption rose by 8% year-on-year, cement use by infrastructure projects grew by 6% and cement demand for residential projects rose by 5%.

Public construction supplies 40% of Thai domestic cement demand, with commercial and residential construction together accounting for the remaining 60%.

SCG previously reported that Thai cement demand had dropped by 5% year-on-year during the first half of 2022.

Cement imports are back on the agenda this week in the Philippines with the news that the Tariff Commission has backed repealing the duties currently being implemented. If it’s anything like what happened last time, back in 2019, the commission’s opinion will once again be passed back to the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) for the final decision. The safeguard measure the commission wants to cut covers Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) and Blended Cement. It summarised the situation as follows, “There is no existence of an imminent threat of serious injury and significant overall impairment to the position of the domestic cement industry in the near future.”

The commission reviewed the sector between 2019 and 2021 and concluded that the domestic cement industry maintained its market position, increased its mill capacities, stabilised its manufacturing costs and improved its profitability. It found that local producers recovered their profits in 2021, following the coronavirus pandemic. It also noted that imports continued to rise whilst the safeguard measure was in force. Volumes of imported OPC and blended cements increased at levels above 10% year-on-year in both the 2019 – 2020 and 2020 – 2021 periods. They also rose by 7% year-on-year to 3.51Mt in the first half of 2022 compared to the half-year average from 2019 - 2021. In the commission’s view, relaxing the duties on imported cement would slow price rises for both locally produced and imported cement leading to an overall national economic benefit.

Local cement producers in the Philippines are likely to be unhappy with the Tariff Commission’s recommendation. The Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines (CEMAP) spent the summer of 2022 lobbying for the safeguard measure to be extended past October 2022. It too pointed out that imports of cement had continued to grow even whilst the increased duties had been levied from 2019. A few days before the commission’s decision was published, APO Cement said that it had temporarily suspended operations at its Davao terminal. The subsidiary of Cemex Philippines blamed imports of cement, particularly from Vietnam, for the decision.

Yet, the local sector has been active over the last year with a number of capacity upgrades being launched or underway. In January 2022 the government gave tax breaks to San Miguel Equity Investments for the construction of a 2Mt/yr cement plant in Mindanao. In February 2022 San Miguel subsidiary Southern Concrete Industries said it was doubling the capacity of an upgrade to its grinding plant at Davao del Sur, with initial commissioning planned in mid-2022. Meanwhile, Solid Cement’s upgrade of a new production line at its integrated plant in Antipolo, Rizal, has been ongoing since it officially started in 2019. The current commissioning date for the subsidiary of Cemex is now expected in early 2024. In August 2022 Taiheiyo Cement Philippines held a groundbreaking ceremony for the start of construction of a new production line at its integrated San Fernando plant in Cebu. The US$85m project is due to be commissioned in mid-2024. Finally, importer Philcement revealed in late September 2022 that it had taken out a US$1.73m loan for an expansion and upgrades to its Mariveles cement terminal in Bataan.

Holcim Philippines’ president and chief executive officer Horia Adrain told local press in July 2022 that the cement sector was continuing to recover in 2022, following the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, but that the pace would be slower. And so it proved, with reduced revenue, earnings and profits reported by Holcim for the first half of 2022. Costs rose due to higher fuel and energy prices like elsewhere in the world but a construction ban in connection with the presidential election in May 2022 didn’t help either. Both CRH and Cemex Philippines reported a similar situation in their financial results. However, Eagle Cement did manage to raise its revenue in the same period.

The Tariff Commission has been explicit with its opinion about the impact of imports upon the local cement sector. Investment by the local producers has been forthcoming with a number of new plants and upgrades on the way. Finally, despite the market recovering since 2020, there has been less growth in the first half of 2022 due to global energy prices and the country’s elections. This last point has handed a gift to the cement producers as any further reductions in growth can be blamed on imports, whether it is connected or not. One thing is certain, if or when the safeguard measures are lifted, then the regular calls to restrict imports will resume just like they did prior to 2019.

Saudi Arabia: Arabian Cement says it is considering how it can complete work on the construction of new cement mills at its integrated Rabigh plant. The announcement follows a statement from the cement producer reporting that contractor China National Building Materials Company (CNBM) said that it was unable to complete the project due to the necessity of “involving a third party.” The project has suffered repeated delays, such as Covid-19-related travel bans, and dates back to at least 2015.

Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote was spotted attending the inauguration ceremony of Kenyan President William Ruto earlier in September 2022. This is relevant because Dangote’s cement company previously announced plans in 2016 to build two 1.5Mt/yr plants in Kenya, near Nairobi and Mombasa respectively. They were intended to become operational by 2021. Unfortunately, Dangote himself allegedly described Kenya as being more corrupt than Nigeria to Kenyan broadcast journalist Jeff Koinange a few years later and nothing more happened. Back in 2014 Ruto visited Dangote Cement’s Obajana plant in Kogi state in Nigeria when the politician was the Deputy President of Kenya. Dangote’s attendance at the presidential inauguration this month suggests at the very least that his relationship with Ruto remains active. Maybe more news on those planned plants will follow.

Graph 1: Cement in Kenya, 2018 – June 2022. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

The reason why the owner of Africa’s largest cement company might be interested in the Kenyan market can be seen in its latest cement production figures. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that production for the first half of 2022 grew by 20% year-on-year to 4.95Mt in the first half of 2022, from 4.12Mt in the same period in 2021. Cement production was broadly similar in 2018 and 2019 at around 6Mt. It then increased by 25% to 9.25Mt in 2021 from 7.41Mt in 2020. On a rolling annual basis, production picked up at the start of 2020 and has risen consistently since then each month, peaking at over 10Mt in May 2022.

However, the elections in August 2022 probably slowed this growth trend, despite being much more peaceful than those in 2007, although the KNBS is yet to release the data. Bamburi Cement said in its outlook for the second half of 2022 that it expected markets to recover after the ballot. The subsidiary of Holcim reported increasing turnover in the first half of 2022, due to mounting sales volumes and price rises, but its profit fell sharply. It blamed this on fuel and logistics inflation, growing clinker import costs as well as negative currency exchange effects.

That last point about imported clinker is worth noting given that a government report in late 2021 found that the country had a clinker shortage of up to 3.3Mt/yr. Yet, the KNBS data in recent years shows that cement production and consumption are broadly similar, suggesting that the shortfall in clinker is being imported. The report added that 59% of the imported clinker originated from Egypt, tariff free, due to a free trade agreement. Local producers were reported to have been operating at a 65% capacity utilisation rate. Egypt and the UAE accounted for most of the imported clinker followed by Saudi Arabia. An interview in the Standard newspaper at this time with Bamburi Cement’s managing director Seddiq Hassani revealed that, despite locally produced clinker being cheaper than imported clinker, some producers were reluctant to hand control of a key input material over to their local competitors. Other producers, predictably, were trying to persuade the government to raise the duty on imports of clinker from 10% to 25%. Tariff discussions have continued in 2022.

So far in 2022 the other big stories in the sector have included Bamburi Cement’s plans to build two solar power plants and a major repair to the kiln shell at East Africa Portland Cement’s (EAPCC) Athi River cement plant. The solar plants will be built next to Bamburi Cement’s integrated Mombasa plant and its Nairobi grinding plant. Once operational in 2023 they are anticipated to supply up to 40% of the cement producer’s total power supply. Devki Group, the owner of National Cement, also announced plans in August 2022 to set up a wind farm near Mombasa. However, this seems more like an attempt to diversify the group into electricity production rather than to supply its own plant near Nairobi. EAPCC’s upgrade project has completed this week after about a month and half of work. It is intended to increase the plant’s cement production by 50%.

Cement production started in rise in 2020 but the Covid-19 pandemic may have constrained this. Production (and consumption) then jumped up in 2021 and looks set to do similar in 2022 bar a possible blip from the elections in August 2022. This is despite the global market issues arising from the end of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. These may be uncertain times but the fundamentals for the Kenyan cement market look positive despite rising end prices. Unsurprisingly, it looks likely that Dangote Cement remains keen to extend its business to Kenya.

The larger cement producers in China have published their half-year financial results and the numbers are looking grim. Starting with data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, cement output in the country fell by 14.5% year-on-year to 979Mt in the first half of 2022 from 1.14Bnt in the same period in 2021. This is the lowest first half output figure since 2012. The decline on a monthly basis started in May 2021 and has carried on consistently since then. Rolling cumulative annual output hit a low of 2.18Bnt in July 2022, the lowest figure since at least the start of 2019 and well before the coronavirus pandemic started.

Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2022. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

The financial figures from the cement producers have mostly followed this trend. Of the companies covered here, Anhui Conch’s drop in sales revenue was the most distinct at 30% year-on-year to US$8.14bn. However, Jidong Cement actually managed to increase its revenue and Huaxin Cement’s decrease was fairly small, possibly due to its growing stable of overseas projects. None of these companies could avoid falling cement and clinkers sales volumes though. Again, Anhui Conch is the outlier here with a larger fall in sales volumes proportionally at nearly 40% compared to around 20% for the rest. Chen Bolin, the deputy secretary-general of China Cement Association (CCA), told the 21st Century Business Herald newspaper that of the 20 or so listed cement companies that have published their half-year reports by the end of August 2022, more than half had reported falling sales revenue and net profit and only one company had managed to increase its net profit.

Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports. Note: Cement revenue shown only for CNBM & Taiwan Cement.

Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

The financial reports from the Chinese cement companies detailed here have been fairly light on the reasons for the current state of the sector. Repeated coronavirus outbreaks, instability in the real estate market, a lack of funding for infrastructure projects, growing energy and raw materials costs, pressure on prices and a generally weak economy have all been blamed for the situation. Media channels outside of China have continued to scan the country’s real estate sector for signs of collapse following Evergrande’s problems in 2021. However Chen Bolin diplomatically held back by describing the real estate market as not yet stabilised and a drag on cement demand. Instead he hoped that large-scale infrastructure projects would offer some form of relief.

One last point to note, that both the CCA has made and could be seen in some of the company reports, is that some of the Chinese cement companies are already starting to diversify their businesses. This is in parallel to what some of the larger western-based multinational cement producers have also been doing in recent years with forays into concrete, light building materials and construction chemicals. CNBM already has large concrete, light building materials and engineering subsidiaries. However, Huaxin Cement and Anhui Conch have also started to branch out recently into aggregates, concrete and new energy generation, in the case of the latter company. Things may get worse before they get better, especially depending when or if the Chinese government decides to act on the real estate market. However, whatever kind of adjustment the cement sector may face, there are some signs present already of what some of the companies may do next.