Displaying items by tag: coronavirus

UK: RDF Industry Group has convened a refuse-derived fuel (RDF) industry working group to meet on a fortnightly basis to discuss the sectoral impacts of coronavirus. The Group said that it ‘is working with competent authorities to ensure the free flow of RDF is maintained.’ It acknowledged that RDF supply is essential to European cement production, adding, “The flow of RDF from the UK to off-take facilities in Europe is continuing, with the industry overall functioning well.”

US: Lehigh Cement has announced plans to suspend operations at its 0.5Mt/yr Glens Falls, New York, plant and associated Moreau quarry by 1 May 2020 in response to the coronavirus outbreak. The move will see its local staff of 90 reduced to 36 for the duration of the shutdown. Times Union newspaper has reported that Lehigh Cement will cover the 54 dismissed employees’ health insurance payments and ‘provide assistance in applying for unemployment and other layoff-related benefits.’ Lehigh Cement Glens Falls plant manager David Dreyer said, “We look forward to the day when our nation's health is no longer at such risk and our customers' demand for cement products returns, so we can welcome our employees back and resume full operation.”

Oman: Raysut Cement has announced its receipt of 44,000t of clinker via the port of Sohar, Al Batinah North Governorate. The material will contribute to Raysut Cement’s strategic stockpile to help meet Omani cement demand throughout the coronavirus crisis.

India: Gujarat Sidhee Cement resumed production at its 1.2Mt/yr Sidheegram plant in Gujarat on 15 April 2020. The company said that in reopening the plant it would ‘comply with directives issued by central, state and local government,’ according to Accord Fintech News.

Japan: Equipment supplier UBE Japan instigated working-from-home for all employees as of 13 April 2020. Production is due to continue as normal, along with the supply of UBE products to Japanese cement producers. For necessary on-site workers, the company says that it has implemented flextime and staggered work schedules. The arrangement is currently scheduled to end on 10 May 2020.

Greece: Titan Cement has published its integrated annual report for 2019, a year in which its net profit fell by 5.5% year-on-year to Euro50.9m from Euro53.8m in 2018 and sales rose by 8.0% to Euro1.61bn from Euro1.49bn. The company noted its ‘sustained performance and stronger cash flow generation’ throughout the year, with growing demand in the US and Southeastern Europe and the beginning of growth in Greece, in spite of a 7.0% year-on-year fall in cement volumes to 17.0Mt from 18.2Mt in 2018. Challenging conditions in Egypt and Turkey caused the group’s performance to deteriorate.

Titan Cement said that it is ‘on track to meet the Group’s 2020 sustainability targets and has already met ‘all targets related to emissions and water consumption.’
It acknowledged inevitable ‘short-term impacts’ of coronavirus, including reduced sales volumes ‘particularly and more severely in the second quarter of 2020,’ and has strengthened its liquidity position to Euro400m.

Egypt: Misr Cement Qena has announced its donation of US$127,000 to the government’s Tahya Misr coronavirus rapid response fund. The fund aims to provide unemployed irregular workers with US$31.7/day, increasing the healthcare budget by 75% and providing ventilators to all who need them, as well as equipping hospitals with masks and detergent. Misr Cement Qena chairman Abd al-Fattah Harhour said, “We are very proud to take a leading part in the initiative as part of our ongoing social responsibility towards our country and our people.”

Colombia: Mexico-based Cemex has announced the resumption of operations at its 2.8Mt/yr Caracolito plant in Ibagué, Tolima Department on 13 April 2020. Noticias Financieras News has reported that Cemex Colombia will resume the supply of its products to ‘infrastructure and public works that cannot be suspended, as well as for emergency care projects and road projects.

Cemex will have to wait for the Colombian government to lift its coronavirus lockdown to restart supplies to customers.

Ireland: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has postponed a four-day hearing over Irish Cement’s alternative fuel (AF) licence application, scheduled for May 2020, to an as yet unspecified date due to the coronavirus. Under the terms of the proposed licence, Irish Cement will be able co-process a maximum of 90,000t/yr of refuse-derived fuel (RDF), including tyres, in the single dry line of its 1.0Mt/yr Mungret plant in County Limerick. The EPA said that emissions from operations under the terms of the licence ‘will meet all required environmental protection standards.’

Irish Cement received its preliminary licence to burn refuse-derived fuel (RDF) in September 2019. The move attracted local resistance, with 4500 people participating in a protest on 5 October 2019.

The EPA has said that it will give all relevant parties notice ‘well in advance’ of the date of the rescheduled hearing, which will take place after the government lifts the country’s coronavirus lockdown. On 14 April 2020 County Limerick had 234 coronavirus cases out of an Irish total of 10,647.

As India reaches two weeks into its 21 day lockdown to combat coronavirus, the financial analysts are starting to publish their forecasts as to what the effects will be for the cement industry. The results are gloomy, with demand predicted to drop by up to 25% in the financial year to March 2021 by one analyst and 40% in March 2020 alone by another.

Graph 1: Indian cement production, rolling annual by month, January 2018 – February 2020. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

The graph above sets the scene for what may be to come by showing the state of production in India in recent years. From early 2018 it picked up by 17% to 337Mt by March 2019 and stayed around there through the rest of year before breeching 340Mt in January and February 2020. The (relative) lull in production growth in 2019 was blamed by some analysts on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. In summary the market was improving and seemed set for further growth in 2020. Alas, this does not now seem to be the case.

Looking ahead, Rating’s agency CRISIL has published a research paper on the topic and here are some of the highlights. They break the damage down into two separate scenarios. The first, where the social distancing measures last until the end of April, cause a 10 – 15% fall in cement demand with the pain limited to the first quarter of the Indian financial year, which starts on 1 April. The second, where distancing measures last until June, cause a 20 – 25% decrease in demand, with the problems extended into the second quarter. Salient points that it makes about the anticipated recovery include a delay in infrastructure spending due to the government diverting funds to healthcare, reduced private and real estate markets and a divide between state-led affordable housing schemes in urban and rural areas. It pins its hopes on rural housing to grab demand first, followed by key infrastructure projects, especially transport schemes.

Examining the cement producers directly, CRISIL reckons that prices will fall in the face of dropping demand but that power, fuel and freight costs are all expected to fall also. Profit margins are forecast to drop compared to the 2019 – 2020 financial year but still remain higher than the two previous ones. Finally, it looked at the credit profiles of 23 companies, representing over 70% of installed production capacity. Together they had a total debt of US$7bn. It flagged up four of these companies as having high debt/earnings ratios and five with low interest coverage. The latter were described as ‘small regional firms with weak cash balances.’

That’s one view on what may happen but two recent general industry news stories offer snapshots on what may be to come for the Indian market. The first is an immediate consequence of a nationwide lockdown in a country with a population of 1.3bn and a low cost of labour. 400 construction workers at a grinding plant build for Ramco Cements in Haridaspur, Odisha, were stranded at the site when the quarantine restrictions stopped them travelling home to Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. They took up residence at the building site and then protested when the food ran out. This point about migrant labour is noteworthy because how the Indian government relaxes the lockdown could have massive consequences upon how the construction industry recovers. A possible parallel from elsewhere in the world is the slowdown effect the Saudi Arabian cement industry suffered in late 2013 when the government took action against illegal foreign workers in the construction industry.

The second news story to keep in mind is the annual results from refractory manufacturer RHI Magnesita this week. It reported growing revenue from its cement and lime customers in 2019 but it blamed a weaker market in Europe on producers stockpiling product due to tightening magnesite and dolomite raw material availability. The takeaway here is that if supply chains supporting the cement sector and the rest of the construction industry in India at the moment are affected by the coronavirus outbreak, and government action to stop it, then there may be consequences later on. So far Global Cement hasn’t seen anything like this but the preparation for coronavirus advice from industry expert John Kilne has been to indentify and secure medium term needs, including refractory and critical spare parts and to consider potential disruption to supply chains.

In terms of what happens next once the lockdown ends in India (and other countries), one media commentator has described the response to coronavrius as the ‘hammer and the dance.’ The hammer is the economy-busting measures many governments have implemented to stop local epidemics. The dance is/are the measures that countries are using before and after an outbreak to keep it suppressed until a vaccine is developed. The worry for building material producers is how much the ‘dance’ disrupts business over the next year. All eyes will be on the East Asian producer market figures for the first quarter to see how this plays out.