Displaying items by tag: inflation

Brazil: Data from the Brazilian National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) shows that sales of cement fell by 3% year-on-year to 63.1Mt in 2022 from 64.4Mt in 2021. Sales fell in the Nordeste, Sudeste and Sui regions but grew elsewhere. Exports declined by 14% to 0.40Mt from 0.47Mt. SNIC has blamed the falling sales on a declining real estate sector, high inflation rates and a poor response from a new house-building campaign. It also attributed the Football World Cup in late 2022 as having a detrimental effect on national cement sales! SNIC forecasts sales growth of 1% in 2023 despite considerable market uncertainty.

Kazakhstan: Steppe Cement's full-year sales were US$86.5m during 2022, up by 11% year-on-year from 2021 levels. This came about despite a 1.2% year-on-year drop in its cement volumes. The producer also overcame high inflation, which reached 20% year-on-year in Kazakhstan in December 2022.

Steppe Cement said "We continue our capital expenditure programme to increase our production capacity of clinker and cement by mid-2023, as well as to reduce power and coal consumption."

India: Dalmia Bharat sold 12Mt of cement during the first half of its 2023 financial year, up by 20% year-on-year from 10Mt in the first half of the 2022 financial year. Its income was US$757m, up by 21% year-on-year from US$624m. Meanwhile, the company's earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell by 28% to US$116m from US$161m. The company noted the growth effects of 'fuel price corrections' during the second quarter of 2022, which it expects to increase its profitability during the second half of year.

Managing director and CEO Punit Dalmia said “We are pleased with the performance of the first half of this year despite the intense inflationary environment, and are confident that we will be among the best in the industry, leaving the bad times behind. While the geopolitical turmoil continues, we are confident in the resilience of the Indian economy, which is further cementing its position at the centre of global growth and consumption.” Dalmia continued “In view of the government's continued momentum in the infrastructure sector, driven by the revitalisation of the housing sector, we expect the demand for cement to grow rapidly. Looking ahead, we will remain focused on our capacity expansion progress.”

Dalmia Bharat's 14 integrated cement and grinding plants span 10 Indian states and have a capacity of 37Mt/yr, India's fourth largest.

US: Martin Marietta Materials recorded revenues of US$4.68bn throughout the first nine months of 2022, up by 20% year-on-year from US$3.92bn. Cement sales contributed US$455m, 9.7% of total revenues, up by 27% from US$358m. Cost of revenues rose by 4% for the group, to US$3.62bn from US$2.92bn. Nonetheless, Martin Marietta Materials successfully recorded nine-month net earnings growth of 25% year-on-year, to US$638m from US$546m.

Chair and CEO Ward Nye said that double-digit price growth drove the company's record profitability. He said "Importantly, we expect a return to expanding margins in the fourth quarter of 2022, as the compounding effect of multiple pricing actions throughout the year offsets continued inflationary pressure and a slowdown in single-family residential construction. Martin Marietta's strategic coast-to-coast footprint is well positioned for long-term growth, driven by favourable population migration trends, housing shortages in our markets and a long-term federal highway bill complemented by healthy Department of Transportation budgets in the company's key states. Near-term, we expect affordability-driven headwinds in the single-family residential end market will be offset by a significant acceleration in public infrastructure investment and continued strength in large-scale energy, domestic manufacturing and multi-family residential projects."

Spain: Cementos Molins' consolidated sales were Euro959m over the first nine months of 2022, up by 37% year-on-year from the same period in 2021. Cementos Molins attributed the growth to an increase in sales across all of its businesses and the 'significant' contribution of new acquisitions from 2021. Its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by 11% to Euro208m, while its net profit rose by 3% to Euro90m. The group noted a 'strong performance' by its South American and Asian business. In general, it faced high costs growth, offset partly by increased product prices and the effects of its successful operational efficiency plans. Costs rose especially sharply in Spain, leading to margins deterioration there, while the impacts of hyperinflation in Argentina were lower than in the corresponding period of 2019.

Cementos Molins' net debt continued to decline throughout the period, to reach Euro137m, 0.5x its EBITDA. The group said that its financial position will give it leverage in its execution of new growth opportunities and its 2030 sustainability roadmap.

Regarding the company's third-quarter 2022 performance, chief executive officer Julio Rodríguez said "Despite a very challenging and uncertain global environment and the negative impact of high inflation costs, once again Cementos Molins has delivered very solid results in the third quarter. This performance is the outcome of the contribution of a very professional and committed team worldwide, whom I would like to thank for their big effort in such a difficult environment."

Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote was spotted attending the inauguration ceremony of Kenyan President William Ruto earlier in September 2022. This is relevant because Dangote’s cement company previously announced plans in 2016 to build two 1.5Mt/yr plants in Kenya, near Nairobi and Mombasa respectively. They were intended to become operational by 2021. Unfortunately, Dangote himself allegedly described Kenya as being more corrupt than Nigeria to Kenyan broadcast journalist Jeff Koinange a few years later and nothing more happened. Back in 2014 Ruto visited Dangote Cement’s Obajana plant in Kogi state in Nigeria when the politician was the Deputy President of Kenya. Dangote’s attendance at the presidential inauguration this month suggests at the very least that his relationship with Ruto remains active. Maybe more news on those planned plants will follow.

Graph 1: Cement in Kenya, 2018 – June 2022. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

The reason why the owner of Africa’s largest cement company might be interested in the Kenyan market can be seen in its latest cement production figures. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that production for the first half of 2022 grew by 20% year-on-year to 4.95Mt in the first half of 2022, from 4.12Mt in the same period in 2021. Cement production was broadly similar in 2018 and 2019 at around 6Mt. It then increased by 25% to 9.25Mt in 2021 from 7.41Mt in 2020. On a rolling annual basis, production picked up at the start of 2020 and has risen consistently since then each month, peaking at over 10Mt in May 2022.

However, the elections in August 2022 probably slowed this growth trend, despite being much more peaceful than those in 2007, although the KNBS is yet to release the data. Bamburi Cement said in its outlook for the second half of 2022 that it expected markets to recover after the ballot. The subsidiary of Holcim reported increasing turnover in the first half of 2022, due to mounting sales volumes and price rises, but its profit fell sharply. It blamed this on fuel and logistics inflation, growing clinker import costs as well as negative currency exchange effects.

That last point about imported clinker is worth noting given that a government report in late 2021 found that the country had a clinker shortage of up to 3.3Mt/yr. Yet, the KNBS data in recent years shows that cement production and consumption are broadly similar, suggesting that the shortfall in clinker is being imported. The report added that 59% of the imported clinker originated from Egypt, tariff free, due to a free trade agreement. Local producers were reported to have been operating at a 65% capacity utilisation rate. Egypt and the UAE accounted for most of the imported clinker followed by Saudi Arabia. An interview in the Standard newspaper at this time with Bamburi Cement’s managing director Seddiq Hassani revealed that, despite locally produced clinker being cheaper than imported clinker, some producers were reluctant to hand control of a key input material over to their local competitors. Other producers, predictably, were trying to persuade the government to raise the duty on imports of clinker from 10% to 25%. Tariff discussions have continued in 2022.

So far in 2022 the other big stories in the sector have included Bamburi Cement’s plans to build two solar power plants and a major repair to the kiln shell at East Africa Portland Cement’s (EAPCC) Athi River cement plant. The solar plants will be built next to Bamburi Cement’s integrated Mombasa plant and its Nairobi grinding plant. Once operational in 2023 they are anticipated to supply up to 40% of the cement producer’s total power supply. Devki Group, the owner of National Cement, also announced plans in August 2022 to set up a wind farm near Mombasa. However, this seems more like an attempt to diversify the group into electricity production rather than to supply its own plant near Nairobi. EAPCC’s upgrade project has completed this week after about a month and half of work. It is intended to increase the plant’s cement production by 50%.

Cement production started in rise in 2020 but the Covid-19 pandemic may have constrained this. Production (and consumption) then jumped up in 2021 and looks set to do similar in 2022 bar a possible blip from the elections in August 2022. This is despite the global market issues arising from the end of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. These may be uncertain times but the fundamentals for the Kenyan cement market look positive despite rising end prices. Unsurprisingly, it looks likely that Dangote Cement remains keen to extend its business to Kenya.

Australia: Adbri has reported that the ongoing upgrade at its Kwinana cement plant, previously estimated to cost US$137m, is now likely to cost closer to US$157m. It cited inflation and supply chain issues as the main reasons behind the 15% increase to the cost of the project, which seeks to combine its Western Australia operations at a single site, while raising its capacity by 36% to 1.5Mt/yr. The company said the upgrade was about 25% compete as at 30 June 2022, while procurement was about 75% committed. It is scheduled for commissioning in mid 2023.

Elsewhere, Adbri has also said that its definitive feasibility study for a Kalgoorlie lime kiln is on track for completion in the first half of 2023. The study includes mine planning and front-end engineering design.

Second quarter results have been released for many of the European-based cement producers, so we’ll take a look at how they are doing so far in 2022. The general trend for the companies sampled here is that revenue is up, cement sales volumes are down and earnings are varied. Added to this, ready-mixed concrete (RMC) and aggregate sales volumes have risen for most of these organisations. Each producer did well in the US, less well in Europe and differently elsewhere. Concurrently, input costs for raw materials, energy and logistics have been rising and this has been passed on to consumers fairly consistently as price rises.

Graph 1: Sales revenue for selected European-based multinational cement producers in the first half of 2022. Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 2: Cement sales volumes for selected European-based multinational cement producers in the first half of 2022. Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 3: Ready-mixed concrete sales volumes for selected European-based multinational cement producers in the first half of 2022. Source: Company financial reports.

Holcim is currently in a state of transition with responses from regulators on big divestments in India and Brazil expected in the second half of 2022 alongside its diversification into light building materials. Both North America and Europe did well for the group in the first half of 2022, particularly the former, where cement sales volumes rose, unlike the other regions. Asia Pacific was more problematic with inflation and pricing issues reported. Cement demand was also said to be ‘softer’ in China and the Philippines compared to the first half of 2021. The region’s recurring earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) also fell.

HeidelbergCement’s half-year results were less upbeat with cement sales volumes down by 2.6% on a like-for-like basis, RMC sales volumes stable and aggregates sales volumes up by 1.7%. One point to note here is that HeidelbergCement divested its business in the western US in late 2021 and the graphs above do not show like-for-like changes. However, one reason for the dour tone was that higher input costs had led to a 11.4% drop in the group’s result from current operations before depreciation and amortisation (RCOBD) to Euro€1.53bn. It blamed this on its inability to raise prices sufficiently to counter ‘significantly’ higher costs of energy and transport.

Cemex benefitted from its strong presence in the Americas but even this wasn’t enough to shield it from the negative effect upon earnings of higher energy costs and supply chain disruptions. So, net sales increased in Mexico and the US but operating earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell. In Mexico this was blamed on a higher base for comparison in 2021. In the US a declining EBITDA margin was attributed to higher energy costs and supply chain headwinds from maintenance, imports and logistics. Interestingly though, Cemex managed to raise both sales and earnings in its Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia despite cement sales volumes slipping. It said it was able to do this due to well executed price rises.

Buzzi Unicem reported growth in sales revenue and earnings despite falling cement sales volumes. It attributed this to a ‘strong’ increase in prices. However, it noted that the mounting energy costs had contributed to a decline in its EBITDA margin. Deliveries for the half-year grew in the US, Central Europe, Poland and the Czech Republic. They fell in Italy and, unsurprisingly, Ukraine. Also, despite the growth in deliveries in Poland and the Czech Republic in the reporting period, Buzzi Unicem said that a slowdown in Europe had become evident in the second quarter of 2022 and was particularly evident in Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic. In Ukraine the group reported that activity had resumed at its Volyn plant in the north-west of the country following the Russian invasion in February 2022. The Nikolayev plant, in the south, though continued to remain idle. Sales volumes halved in the country year-on-year. Given the circumstances it seems amazing that they didn’t fall by more frankly.

Finally, Vicat had a tougher time of it than some of the other companies featured here. Its sales revenue grew significantly, as a result of higher prices, but earnings tumbled. The latter was blamed on a high base for comparison in the first half of 2021 and the energy situation. A few non-recurring capital intensive projects at various plants, including the start-up of the Ragland plant’s new kiln in the US, didn’t help either.

Much of the above leaves an uncertain outlook for the second half of 2022. All of the cement producers here expect to increase their sales revenue and raise their prices. Most of them though are rather more circumspect or downright pessimistic about what the state of their earnings will be. The companies covered here are multinational but with a focus on Europe and the US. We have omitted plenty of regional producers elsewhere around the world in this roundup that have already published their results, such as India-based UltraTech Cement or Nigeria-based Dangote Cement. The other big market that is missing is China, where the producers are mostly yet to publish their half-year results. We will return to cover these topics in future weeks.

Sri Lanka: Tokyo Cement Group increased its turnover to US$45.2m in the first quarter of it 2023 financial year, up by 53% year-on-year from first-quarter 2022 financial year levels. A shortage of imported raw materials and the country’s on-going fuel crisis hampered local cement demand. The group’s cement sales volumes declined during the quarter, while its cost of sales increased by 24% year-on-year. ‘Steep’ currency depreciation compounded the effects of the increase in expenses. Nonetheless, the company recorded a profit of US$1.48m.

The producer said “Tokyo Cement has taken many proactive measures to minimise the impact of economic downturn on the group's performance. Anticipating a challenging environment, the group has reforecasted demand, rescheduled sourcing and production plans, and adjusted cash flows accordingly. The group has deployed drastic cost saving measures, streamlined operations, and postponed capital expenditure. While the short to medium term economic landscape remains uncertain, Tokyo Cement has a proven track record of resilience and resurgence, and is committed to rebuilding the nation, stronger than ever before.”

Thailand/Sri Lanka: Siam City Cement has despatched US$111,000-worth of medical supplies and monetary donations to Sri Lanka as humanitarian aid amid the on-going financial crisis in the country. Year-on-year inflation was 61% in July 2022.

The Nation newspaper reported that the Thai government has donated a total of US$158,000-worth of supplies to the country. It said “The donations reflect the close and cordial ties as well as the goodwill between Thai and Sri Lankan people.”