Displaying items by tag: lockdown

Another week and it’s another commodity story related to the effects of coronavirus. This time the Indian press and financial analysts have started to notice a shift in the fuel mix of some of the major producers from petcoke to coal. UltraTech Cement moved to 30% petcoke and 60% imported coal in the fourth quarter of its 2021 financial year that ended on 31 March 2021. This compares to a reported mix of 77% and 10% in the previous year according to Mint. Dalmia Bharat reduced its share of petcoke to 52% in the fourth quarter from 70% in the third quarter, while its coal mix was 35 - 40% in the fourth quarter.

Price is the driver here. UltraTech Cement’s chief financial officer Atul Daga summed the situation up in an earnings call in late January 2021. Essentially, he said that fuel represented about 13% of total costs for cement producers in India and that both the cost of coal and petcoke nearly doubled from June 2020 to January 2021. However, coal is seen as the cheaper option, hence the move towards it in the fuels mix ratio. The petcoke market meanwhile has suffered due to reduced oil refinery output due to, you guessed it, the effect of coronavirus on global markets in 2020. Scarcity in the US market has particularly affected the decisions on buyers for Indian cement companies since this is the key source of their imports. Demand for petcoke from Latin America and the Mediterranean hasn’t helped either. Both petcoke and coal markets are expected to stabilise in the second half of 2021. Diesel prices have also risen recently causing UltraTech Cement’s power and fuel costs to increase by 28% year-on-year to US$356m and logistics costs, including freight expenses, to rise by 25% to US$449m in the fourth quarter of its 2021 financial year.

With this in mind it’s interesting then, that for some analysts at least, fuel prices have been seen as more worrying for cement producer profits than the latest round of coronavirus-related lockdowns from India’s second wave of infection. Fitch Ratings for example, warned that the impact of mounting fuel costs would continue to be seen in the quarter to June 2021 but that it would subside due to the switch in fuel mix and price rises passed to end consumers. On the lockdowns, it forecast that localised restrictions, with cement plants being allowed to continue operating in most states, would cause a far less pronounced drop in cement demand than during the first national lockdown.

Graph 1: Monthly cement production in India, January 2019 – April 2021. Source: Office of the Economic Adviser.

Graph 1 above shows that the crisis the Indian cement sector faced during the first lockdown, when production crumbled by 85% year-on-year to 4.3Mt in April 2020. The following recovery saw production reach its second highest ever figure at 32.9Mt in March 2021. It’s too soon to tell what’s happening from the national figure but that dip in April 2021 is not looking good so far.

One benefit from unstable fuel prices is that it builds the economic case for cement producers to raise their alternative fuels substitution rates. UltraTech Cement, for example, reported that its ‘green’ energy rate grew to 13% in its 2021 financial year from 11% in 2020. With a target of 34% by its 2024 financial year, this is an ideal opportunity for a change for both UltraTech Cement and other producers.

India: The cement sector’s consumption of fly ash has reportedly collapsed since March 2020. The Financial Express newspaper has reported that the sector previously used over 25% of the ash from coal-fired power plants. The Association of Power Producers says that the suspension of cement production during coronavirus lockdown prevented the more of the country’s coal plants than usual from reaching the required 100% utilisation (for plants over three years old) in the 2021 financial year. In the 2020 financial year, 47 of 101 plants utilised 100% of their fly ash. Other uses beside cement production include brick and tile production, roadbuilding and land reclamation.

The UK construction market is in a funny situation right now. As the economy has started to grow in 2021, shortages of building materials have been reported following the relaxation of coronavirus-related restrictions. In April 2021, for example, the Construction Leadership Council (CLC) added cement, aggregates and certain plastics to its existing lists of products in short supply. These commodities joined a slew of other materials, including timber, steel, roof tiles, bricks and imported products such as screws, fixings, plumbing items, sanitaryware, shower enclosures, electrical products and appliances. The CLC advised all users to, “plan for increased demand and longer delays, keep open lines of communication with their suppliers and order early for future projects.”

Skip forward a month to May 2021 and these shortages are on more people’s minds with the announcement by the Office for National Statistics that UK monthly construction output grew by 5.8% month-on-month to around Euro16.5bn in March 2021 due to both new work and to repair and maintenance projects. Quarter-on-quarter output also rose by 2.6%, adding to the impression of a building sector emerging from the fog of lockdown. In the face of this good news Nigel Jackson, the chief executive of the UK mineral Products Association (MPA), was asked about reported shortages of cement. He told local press this week that “it would not be surprising if there were short-term issues of supply as the economy gathers momentum.” He added that the biggest issues had been observed in levels of bagged cement typically used in domestic projects.

The MPA followed this up with the results of a survey of building materials manufacturers that reported a slow but steady start to 2021 with mounting construction demand month-on-month. Sales volumes of aggregates and concrete were both up quarter-on-quarter but volumes of asphalt and mortar fell. Unfortunately that survey didn’t cover cement volumes but it did have more to say about concrete. In its view ready-mixed concrete sales had been subdued since 2017 due to the UK’s departure from the European Union (Brexit) and a general slowdown in residential building. The market recovery seen so far in 2021 was likely to be merely a return to growth from a subdued level of activity that pre-dates Covid-19.

At the time of writing the UK government faces a decision about whether to continue opening up the economy or exercise caution in the face of the as-yet unknown consequences of the Indian variant of coronavirus. This may delay talk of building materials shortages but it can’t avoid it forever. In the UK, cement shortages appear to be due to the self-build segment and will hopefully soon be resolved.

A shortage of cement in the UK may not mean much to people outside the country, with the exception of exporters. Yet the wider picture here is that the coronavirus pandemic has affected the production of building materials, changed end-user behaviour and distorted markets around the world. Other examples include the row over the price of cement in Nigeria, the boom in cement sales in Brazil in the second half of 2020 or reported shortages in Jamaica this week. A significant number of people, when forced to spend more time at home, appeared to save money and then decided to either move to a different house or make their current one better. Yet at the same time differing government restrictions and market fluctuations have seen building material output levels vary widely. Other reasons are at play both local and international. Brexit in the UK is one example of the former, as importers and exporters have been forced to grapple with new rules and costs. The temporary blockage of the Suez Canal in March 2021 is one example of the latter. No wonder supply chains are struggling. That last point goes wider than building materials though, for example, as anyone trying to buy semiconductors has discovered. One fear behind all of this though is whether these are temporary shortages or whether inflation is on the way for the global economy generally. In this is the case, then it signals the end of the low consumer inflation rate era since the financial crash in 2008 and may herald changes in behaviour from both producers and consumers.

India: Cement demand will drop by an estimated 20% year-on-year in the three months up to 30 June 2021, the first quarter of the 2022 financial year in India. Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has attributed the projected decrease to a significant drop in rural housing’s bagged cement uptake due to state governments’ coronavirus lockdowns, which prevent retailers from opening. The Hindu newspaper has reported that this type of construction previously generated one third of demand. Segments such as urban housing, commercial construction and infrastructure will be less affected, according to the forecast.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not yet implemented a national lockdown in response to the country’s second wave of coronavirus. New cases numbered 264,000 on 17 May 2021, down by 20% week-on-week from 330,000 on 10 May 2021.

Mexico: Cement production in Mexico grew by 24% year-on-year to 56Mt in 2020. This was its highest figure in the last five years, according to BNamericas. Data from INEGI, Mexico’s national institute of statistics, shows that production in January 2021 grew by 14.5% year-on-year to 4.2Mt. Yanina Navarro, the director of the National Cement Chamber (CANACEM), said that consumption changed in 2020 to favour bagged cement over bulk. She added that cement production was allowed to continue through coronavirus-related lockdowns in 2020 as it was classified as an ‘essential’ industry.

Lebanon: The Ministry of Industry has reversed a recent decision to allow cement imports into the country. Following a meeting with local cement producers, Minister Imad Hobballah declared that allowing imports would decrease official selling prices rapidly, according to the L'Orient-Le Jou newspaper. Local producers have reported low sales due to a strict coronavirus-related lockdown that started in January 2021. Cimenterie Nationale reportedly stopped production in early February 2021 due to a lack of raw materials.

Dominican Republic: The Dominican Association of Portland Cement Producers (ADOCEM) estimates that local production fell by 8% year-on-year in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Julissa Báez, the executive director of ADOCEM, said this compared to a 16% drop in the construction industry generally, according to local media. She added that local cement plants were allowed to continue production during a local lockdown that started in March 2020.

Bangladesh: The Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association (BCMA) has called on the state-owned Bangladesh Bank (BB) to extend an ongoing moratorium period on the payment of loan instalments by another six months to mid-2021 in response to the negative economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic. The original loan window was schedule to end on 31 December 2020, according to the Dhaka Tribune newspaper. The association has also called for a fixed lending rate for non-government lenders due to rising costs. Local cement sales fell by 13% year-on-year in the five months from January to May 2020 due to a coronavirus-related lockdown that ended in late May 2020.

Rwanda: PPC subsidiary Cimerwa’s sales grew by 1% year-on-year in the 2020 financial year, in which it recorded earnings before interest, depreciation, taxation and amortisation (EBITDA) of US$16.7m. The producer says that it recovered strongly from a 40-day shutdown of cement production due to a national coronavirus lockdown that started on 22 March 2020, with cement production of 55,000t in July 2020. It also diversified its product range during the period with the launch of its new Sure Range cements.

Chief executive officer (CEO) Albert Sige said, “These results demonstrate Cimerwa’s strong foundation, resilience and great potential. In response to the exceptional situation of the Covid-19 pandemic, the team stepped up to the challenge by putting in place measures to ensure business continuity and protect performance. As the market opened up, we were more than ready to continue supplying our customers and stay on the course of Strengthening Rwanda. We undertook various initiatives that will have long-term positive impact on the business. This includes cost savings initiatives, strengthening the organisation and applying innovation to face new challenges. Cimerwa will emerge from this situation even stronger than before.”

Zimbabwe: LafargeHolcim subsidiary Lafarge Cement Zimbabwe has said that cement demand has increased by 34% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2020 following the end of the national coronavirus lockdown. Business Weekly News has reported that the company said that cement demand in July 2020 was the highest in that month since July 2003 due to a 7% year-on-year sales rise.

Company chair Kumbirai Katsande said, “As business activity progressively continued to gain momentum into the third quarter of 2020, the demand for cement consequently outstripped supply, causing considerable supply backlog.” Katsande said that the shortage will ease as demand decreases “associated with rainfall” in the fourth quarter of 2020.