Global Cement News

US: Rockwell Automation has elected Patricia Watson to its board of directors with effect from 1 July 2017. Watson is senior executive vice president and chief information officer at Total System Services (TSYS), a leading global payments provider, responsible for setting the company’s enterprise technology strategy to enable future global growth.

Watson joined TSYS with 17 years of financial services industry experience and has served in a variety of technology-related roles. These positions include vice president and global chief information officer for the Brinks Company and senior technology executive for Bank of America’s treasury, payments and credit functions. She currently serves as a board director for Texas Capital Bancshares.

Watson holds a bachelor’s degree in mathematics from St Mary’s College at Notre Dame, and an MBA from the University of Dayton. She also served in the United States Air Force for 10 years as executive staff officer, flight commander and director of operations. She served as a member of the Texas Governor’s Committee for People with Disabilities, and as a member of Lime Connect, a premier resource for placing people with disabilities.

Belgium: Gonçalo Salazar Leite has been appointed as the president of Cembureau, the European cement association, for a two-year term at the association’s general assembly held on 9 June 2017 in Paris. The vice-chairman of Secil has served as the association’s vice-president since 2015. He succeeds Daniel Gauthier, the former chief executive officer (CEO) Western Europe-Africa and member of the managing board of HeidelbergCement, in the role. In addition, Raoul de Parisot, advisor to Vicat’s chairman and CEO, has been elected as the vice-president of Cembureau for a two-year term.

Leite said that he intends to focus on supporting the industry on the path towards its low-carbon targets, framing the association’s European Union (EU) policy discussions in a wider international context and contributing to the ‘true image’ of the industry.

2017 is an anniversary year for the French cement industry as it marks the bicentenary of Louis Vicat’s pioneering work into the creation of ‘artificial’ cement. The company that bears his name, Vicat, is a major force in the global cement industry to this day. However, the French industry has suffered since the global financial crash in 2007, with steadily declining production volumes, despite a bounce in 2011. Lafarge was only able to maintain its international status through a merger with Switzerland’s Holcim in 2015 and the arguments surrounding that ‘merger of equals’ are still playing out now with the resignation of the group’s chief executive officer in April 2017.

Graph 1: Cement consumption in France, 2012 – 2016. Source: Syndicat Français de l’Industrie Cimentière & Vicat.

Thankfully, the industry started to recover in 2016 and the signs are positive that this will continue into 2017 with the presidential elections concluded. Graph 1 shows the situation since 2012.

Sensing the rebound in 2016 the head of the French building federation (FFB) placed growth in construction materials volumes at 1.9% in December 2016 with a forecast of 3.4% in 2017 based on new residential housing. Naturally he used his position to lobby the politicians in the run-up to the election and the FFB have carried on in this vein haranguing the new administration with 112 (!) proposals to ‘rebuild’ France.

The major cement producers broadly agreed with the outlook in 2016 with LafargeHolcim describing the local construction sector as growing ‘slightly’ despite subdued public spending on infrastructure and HeidelbergCement concurring. Vicat was more effusive pointing to its 6% rise in sales volumes to 2.9Mt in the domestic and export markets. It pinned the recovery down to the last quarter of 2015. However, it noted that the rise in volumes had compensated for a fall in prices due in part to the increased exports. On this point, although it’s outside the scope of this column, it would be fascinating to know how much the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme is stoking the French cement indsutry’s recovery through exports (see GCW290).

Investment has been returning to the market though with Ecocem France’s order of a Loesche mill for a slag cement mill it is building Dunkirk, the inauguration of a new tyre recycling unit at Lafarge France’s Martres plant and the start of a gasifier project at Vicat’s Crechy plant in 2016. More recently Lafarge France reported to the French press in May 2017 that it was starting to consider contractors for a new production line at the Martres plant, leading to fears that it might choose a Chinese provider.

So far in 2017 the situation is on a knife-edge with LafargeHolcim, HeidelbergCement and Vicat all reporting slight declines in sale volumes or earnings that they have blamed on the weather. However, LafargeHolcim did mention growing momentum towards the end of the period offering some hope. As seen above the fundamentals for the French cement industry are all ready and present for growth. Now with the pro-business Euro-centric new president installed in office the industry should be about to flower in time for Louis Vicat’s anniversary.

Germany: Michael Brachthäuser has been appointed as the head of Beumer Group’s cement division. The 61-year old was appointed to the role in October 2016. Prior to joining Beumer he worked as the sales manager for a plant engineering company in the cement and ore industry, for an international power plant builder and a supplier of equipment and services for the cement industry.

Ed Sullivan, the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) chief economist was in tub-thumbing mood last week at the IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Conference in Calgary, Canada. The headline figures that the PCA put out in a press release was a forecast of a 3.5% rise in cement consumption in 2018 and 2019. Yet behind this in a stirring speech given to a cement industry crowd craving growth was a tale of riches ahead. The audience lapped it up. There was only one problem: nothing has really happened yet to make any if this happen. It always seems to be riches ahead. As Sullivan freely put it, “Trump policies will impact cement… But we don’t know what they are!”

Sullivan broke down his forecast into three sections that hinged around President Trump’s desired policy changes kicking in from about the third quarter of 2019. At this point, owing to lack of information about what the Trump administration actually wants to do, Sullivan freely broke open the assumptions. These covered issues such as a tax reform, infrastructure budgeting, immigration reforms and more. As he explained it all of these issues interact, so that reducing taxes potentially pushes national debt up making infrastructure spending harder. Owing to the lack of specifics from the current administration though Sullivan was forced to resort to the more solid plans of Democratic presidential contenders Hillary Clinton and even Bernie Saunders for nuggets of information of how ‘a government’ might act. For example, he used a breakdown of Saunders’s intended infrastructure spend to try and predict how Trump’s policies could play out. Increases in highway building from the overall infrastructure spend in this context being good news for the cement industry. And as for Sullivan’s view on the impact of the Trump border wall: ‘overrated’.

The new forecasts for 2018 and 2019 appear to be retrenchment given that the PCA was predicting growth of 4% for 2016 in the middle of that year. It subsequently reduced its estimate to 2.7% for 2016 by December 2016 after the presidential election. However its figures for 2017 and 2018 have increased since the December forecast. Sullivan predicted that growth will start to surpass 5% in 2020 once Trump’s policies have time to make waves. The crescendo of his presentation at the IEEE-IAS/PCA was a prognostication of an extra requirement of 14Mt of cement in 2021 and 2022. Sullivan topped this off by saying that, “We have the supply infrastructure in place right now.” However, some delegates informally questioned afterwards where that cement might actually come from with mass international clinker capacity waiting in the wings from places like Vietnam and new cement plants such as the McInnis Cement plant in Quebec expressively targeted at the US import market about to come on line.

Sullivan has a tricky job trying to predict what will happen next in the US cement industry and sometimes his forecasts seems to change as much as the weather that cement company financial reports often blame their poor returns on. This column knows a little bit how he feels. As Sullivan’s biography points out he’s been cited by the Chicago Federal Reserve as the most accurate forecaster regarding economic growth among 30 top economists. In short he’s the best we’ve got. But Donald Trump’s approach to government so far has made his job exponentially harder. As we’ve said more than a few times when describing the US cement market, the basis are there for growth but something is holding back faster growth. Will Trump be the catalyst to break the 5% growth barrier? Looks like we’ll have to wait until late 2019 to find out.

Elsewhere, the conference brought together a large cross-section of the North American industry. Surprisingly perhaps given the change in leadership at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) several parts of the speaker and discussion programme focused on coping with National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP), carbon tax schemes in Canada and California and practical carbon capture methods at the plant level. The key here seemed to be a piecemeal approach that may not necessarily be at odds with less government environmental legislation. Next year’s outing in Nashville, Tennessee looks set to be an even more important event, especially if more on Trump's infrastructure plans become known.