Global Cement News

Five of the big European producers posted their first quarter results this week and the figures were frosty.

Mirroring the north-south fault-line tearing Europe's economies apart, Germany's HeidelbergCement, Switzerland's Holcim and France's Lafarge showed improvements in overall sales volumes for the first quarter. Italy's Italcementi and Greece's Titan saw total sales volumes fall.

Looking closer, the results revealed that Western Europe was a dead zone for everybody. Despite its restructuring, Lafarge's sales fell by 11% in the region for the quarter. Similarly HeidelbergCement's sales fell by 6%, Holcim's sales fell by 13% and Italcementi's sales fell by 11%. Titan, by contrast, posted a 4% decline in sales in its heartland in Greece and Eastern Europe. Unsurprisingly it attributed the fall to the collapse of the construction sector in the wake of the Greek debt crisis. Even the weather seemed to be against European production, with more than one report blaming an unusually cold February 2012 for the poor results.

As is usual for European cement news in recent years the action in the first quarter of 2012 was all elsewhere, and this is where new profits have been found for these European producers, specifically in Asia and the Americas. It's in these places that Lafarge, Holcim and HeidelbergCement have reported sales increases of 10% and above for the quarter. Unfortunately 'elsewhere' for Italcementi and Titan has included Egypt with all its ongoing political and economic uncertainty, and the US where demand is in a sustained slump.

Bruno Lafont, CEO of Lafarge, summed it up nicely: "Emerging markets continue to be the main driver of demand and Lafarge benefits from its well balanced geographic spread of high quality assets." In a bid to capture some of that spread, it was also announced this week that the Italcementi subsidiary, Ciments Français, is striving to acquire a 6.25% stake in West China Cement. No wonder!

Each of the five producers are continuing to find savings in Western Europe through restructuring efforts but how painful will it become before the market revives? Unfortunately HeidelbergCement's outlook is the most candid. "In the Western and Northern Europe Group area, HeidelbergCement expects further economic growth but a slight overall dip in demand and falling sales volumes in cement and aggregates." Yes, it's going to get worse. Let's hope it's a warm winter in 2013.

Columbia: Columbia's largest cement company, Cementos Argos (Cemargos), has named Jorge Mario Velásquez as its chairman.

A civil engineer with over 30 years' experience in cement, Velásquez replaces José Alberto Vélez, who remains at the head of parent company Grupo Argos. The changes are part of the company's ongoing corporate restructuring process, which includes splitting off non-cement assets to its investment arm, Inversiones Argos.

UK: If Tarmac and Lafarge go through with their proposed JV tie-up in the UK, Lafarge will be obliged to sell its long-established Hope plant in Derbyshire, in the heart of the Peak District National Park, as well as its top-quality limestone quarry and rail depot connections. The Competition Commission has indicated that it would like an 'outsider' to buy the package, which also includes significant other assets in aggregates and readymix. The question is, who might be interested to buy it?

The UK is now a mature market, which has contracted significantly over the last decade, so that heady growth is not a possibility. The competition authorities will ensure that there is real competition in the UK building materials markets, so that only 'normal' margins of 5-10% can be expected - rather than inflated cartel-like or oligopolistic margins of 20% and beyond. Given that the return on capital invested is going to be quite low, why would anyone want to commit their cash (or their credit) to buying into the UK construction materials market? Why not put your money into bio-tech, or telecomms or even into a micro-development bank in the developing world?

I guess that it is largely down to a calculation of risk versus reward (as usual). The rewards of investing in a cement plant and integrated building materials business in the UK may be (relatively) low, but then the risks are also low: the UK is a fairly safe bet for long-term moderate growth, with strong population growth and robust GDP per capita.

Who would buy? A company that wants to balance its portfolio (perhaps a company with most of its eggs currently in the fast-growth/developing world basket), is cash rich (or has access to cheap credit), which is already in cement and aggregates and which might wish to carry home some of the technical knowledge from the deal might be interested. Perhaps some of the Chinese state-owned enterprises or ambitious mid-tier companies from the Middle East would be interested. As ever though, whether a deal is done depends on the price asked - and in the end, the price asked might be too high for anyone.

Thierry Legrand: Lafarge has appointed a new country CEO for its South African operations. Thierry Legrand was formerly the General Manager of Lafarge in South Africa but has changed role in line with the French building material giant's worldwide restructuring programme.

"Implementing this new structure will allow us to focus more efficiently on our customers and get closer to our markets," said Legrand. "We will use the strengths of our different product lines to design solutions in line with our customers' needs."

Legrand has managed several senior portfolios within the Lafarge group, both in South Africa and Europe.

Nigeria: This week has seen a major development in the Nigerian cement industry, with a call from domestic manufacturers to ban cement imports, three months ahead of the government's schedule for the ban. The call has been presented in some quarters as proof that the country, long blighted by high cement imports, has achieved President Goodluck Jonathan's bold target of making Nigeria a net exporter of cement before 2013. In the face of steadily diminishing oil revenues the government would like Nigeria to be known as the regional cement exporter, but what else might happen?

According to the Cement Manufacturers' Association of Nigeria (CMAN), the country's total cement capacity now stands at 22.5Mt/yr. Domestic consumption is estimated at 18.5Mt/yr, translating into a required capacity utilisation rate of 82%. It is bizarre, therefore, that cement producers feel the need to call for an import ban. Perhaps:

a) The producers know that they can't compete with the low cost of imports from outside Nigeria,

b) The producers want to recoup their plant investment costs as quickly as possible,

c) The producers know that they can't export if the country continues to import.

With notoriously poor transport links within Nigeria, option c may be a small factor. If road and rail links are poor, transport costs increase and exports become less desirable for both the supplier and the end-user. What is more likely however, is a combination of a and b. Producers need to recoup their investments but can't if China and India can undercut them from thousands of miles away. If the desire to recoup investments goes unchecked when the import ban comes in, there is a high potential for cartel-like behaviour to surface again in the country.

One does not have to look back far to the last major incident of apparent cement market cartelisation in Nigeria. In mid-2011 President Jonathan had to step in and personally call for a 25% price reduction. His target was hit within three months, but since then prices have slowly started to rise again, even with Dangote's Ibese 6Mt/yr plant coming online just three months ago! With four producers committed to setting up a 3Mt/yr plant each by 2015 in exchange for 2011 import licences, the supply of cement in Nigeria will continue to rise, making the temptation to collaborate even stronger.