This week’s big story has been that Holcim may be considering selling its business in India. Both the Economic Times newspaper and Bloomberg separately reported that the owner of Ambuja Cement and ACC has been holding early talks with local producers. The discussions have been described as exploratory and an eventual divestment is far from certain. The combined market value of both companies was placed at US$15bn, at the time that the story broke, making it one of the largest potential acquisitions in India. Holcim has refused to comment on the matter.
If it actually happened then the scale of this potential sale would be breathtaking. Holcim has been gradually slimming down since the merger between Lafarge and Holcim in 2015. The big divestments mostly came after the appointment of former Sika boss Jan Jenisch in 2017. Four integrated plants and other assets were sold in Indonesia for US$1.75bn in 2019, a 51% stake in three integrated plants and two grinding plants were sold in Malaysia for US$396m (also in 2019) and five integrated plants were approved for sale in Brazil for US$1.03bn in April 2022.
A complete divestment of Ambuja Cement and ACC in India would see 17 integrated plants and 14 grinding plants being sold with a production capacity of around 66Mt/yr. If any company did buy the lot in one go, at a stroke it would become the second-largest cement producer in the world’s second-largest second market. The nearest acquisition in the last decade that comes close to this was when CRH purchased 24 cement plants with a production capacity of 36Mt/yr from Lafarge and Holcim in 2015 for US$6.5bn.
2022 would certainly be a good time to sell up with both Ambuja Cement and ACC having reported strong sales and earnings figures in 2021 following the coronavirus-related lockdowns in 2020. Performance is even better compared to 2019. Ambuja Cement’s net sales and earnings before taxation, interest, depreciation and amortisation (EBTIDA) grew by 23% year-on-year to US$1.81bn and by 21% to US$420m respectively in 2021. ACC’s sales and operating EBITDA grew by 17% to US$2.07bn and 28% to US$393m respectively in 2021. However, ACC’s net sales growth was much lower compared to that in 2019. Ambuja Cement produced 25.9Mt of cement in 2021 with a production capacity of 31.5Mt giving it a utilisation rate of 82%. ACC produced 26.9Mt of cement in 2021 with a production of 34.5Mt/yr giving it a utilisation rate of 78%. Both of these rates are higher than the national cement sector rates forecast by analysts of up to 64% in the 2022 financial year. The corporate specifics of any sale are that Holcim owns a majority stake in Ambuja Cement, which in turn owns a majority stake in ACC. In other words: buy one, get the other.
One wider question here is whether there are still any companies and investors out there prepared to put money on this scale into a carbon-intensive industry with net-zero deadlines on the way. Ahead of the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in November 2021, India’s prime minister Narendra Modi pledged that his country would cut its emissions to net-zero by 2070. There’s plenty of time left to turn a profit, as cement kilns last about 50 years, but the risk of investing in a stranded asset is growing if the targets are honoured or even brought forward. As a recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report put it, “Cement and concrete are currently overused because they are inexpensive, durable, and ubiquitous, and consumption decisions typically do not give weight to their production emissions.” All of this suggests that buyers might well be more interested in purchasing parts of Holcim’s Indian operations rather than the whole bundle or breaking operations up further down the line. And that’s even before any competition concerns related to any local buyers are considered. Holcim, for its part, has shown with recent divestments, such as its business in Northern Ireland, that it isn’t necessarily against smaller piecemeal divestments. Negotiations, if they are indeed happening, will be closely guarded.
