Analysis

Cement price rises by the major Chinese cement producers boosted sales revenue and profits in 2018. This is quite a trick, given that overall cement sales in the country have fallen by 11% year-on-year to 2.17Bnt in 2018 from a high of 2.45Bnt in 2014.

Graph 1: Cement sales in China, 2009 – 2018. Source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

On the corporate side most of the major Chinese producers issued positive profit alerts towards the end of 2018 and this has been followed up by (mostly) glowing financial reports. Data from the National Development and Reform Commission in February 2019 showed that the profits of local cement companies more than doubled to US$64bn in 2018 compared to 2017. As mentioned above, this has been fueled by price rises. In December 2018 the average price of cement was 10.6% higher than in December 2017.

This has translated into a 19% year-on-year rise in sales revenue at China National Building Material Company (CNBM) to US$32.6bn in 2018 from US$27.4bn in 2017 and its profit grew by 44% to US$2.09bn from US$1.46bn. Anhui Conch’s performance was even better. Its revenue grew by 70.5% to US$19.1bn from US$11.2bn. However, differences emerge between the two companies in terms of cement sales volumes. CNBM’s sales volumes fell by 2.4% to 323Mt. However, Anhui Conch’s sales volumes increased by 25% to 368Mt. This may not be in line with the government’s plans to scale down production but it does fit the industry consolidation model, as the company acquired Guangdong Qingyuan Cement in 2018. The results from other producers such as China Shanshui Cement, West China Cement, Tianrui Cement and China Resources Cement all tell similar tales.

If the figures from the National Bureau of Statistics China (NBS) above are accurate then this is a drop of over 300Mt of cement sales over four years. This is more than the cement sales of every other country except India. Indeed, it’s more cement than some continents make! It marks the deceleration of the Chinese industry since 2014 and represents a major achievement. However, whether it is enough remains to be seen. After all, sales of over 1500kg/capita are still way above the consumption curve for developed Western-style economies. Yet, imports of cement to China from Vietnam rose in 2018, suggesting that the price rises are being driven by shortages of cement!

China is undoubtedly an exceptional case, as its economic star has blossomed in the last few decades and it has literally built itself into history. Yet one might expect its consumption to be around 1Bnt/yr, a per-capita level more similar to Spain and Italy prior to the financial crash. In other words, even if the recently observed 5% year-on-year contraction is maintained, the Chinese industry would only reach this (still very high) level by the mid 2030s. However, continued national development, mega-infrastructure projects, a shift to more exports and China’s unique market could hold the consumption per capita figure higher.

Meanwhile, Chinese producers are commissioning more and more projects outside of China. Notably, CNBM saw its cement sales everywhere except for the Middle East and China. Success abroad is not guaranteed. The story in the years to come will be the balance between projects at home and those abroad.

There was lots to mull over in the latest Committee for European Construction Equipment (CECE) Annual Economic Report. The headlines were that the construction industry market peaked in 2017 and that the mining industry was still recovering, but maybe slowing, in 2018.

For the construction industry the CECE reported that a growth period from 2008 to 2018 reached a high level of growth of 4.1% in 2017. This fell to 2.8% growth in 2018 and is forecast to drop to 2% growth in 2019. It put this in terms of the sector having a cyclical nature, normally of around eight years. This means it believes a downturn is overdue. Slowing gross domestic product (GDP) growth and tighter financial and monetary conditions are expected to drag on the residential sector. The non-residential side is growing by more than 1.5% in Europe but it has started to following the residential sector. It also noted the ‘very poor’ performance of the infrastructure sector due to government under-investment.

Graph 1: GDP vs Construction Output, year-on-year change (%). Source: Euroconstruct & CECE.

The construction equipment sector saw sales rise by 11% in 2018, bringing it to only 10% below the high recorded in 2007. The CECE reported that the rate of growth for concrete equipment was becoming ‘less dynamic’ after four years of growth. Sales in Europe grew by 17% in 2018 but there was a wide difference between northern and southern countries. France and Germany had 9% and 14% growth respectively but Italy and Spain had 23% and 60% growth respectively. Looking at product groups, truck mixer sales and batching plant sales were particularly strong, with growth rates over 10%. Overall, most countries experienced growth, with the exception of Turkey.

Graph 2: Growth rates in construction equipment sales by product groups in Europe, year-on-year change (%). Source: CECE.

Looking globally, the CECE said that Europe ‘slightly underperformed’ in 2018 as worldwide equipment sales grew by a fifth. It attributed this to the return of emerging markets, led by China and India. Sales in Latin America recovered with a rise of 15% but Brazil, notably, was not part of this trend. North America and Oceania had growth rates of around 20% but the Middle East and Africa saw declining sales. The CECE forecasts global equipment sales growth of 5 – 10% in 2019 subject to there being no trade wars.

Tying into this, the German Mechanical Engineering Industry Association (VDMA) said today that Sebastian Popp, its Deputy Managing Director, described cement plant equipment manufacturers as a ‘drag’ on the rest of the building materials plant sector. His words were from an event that took place earlier in March 2019. Overall incoming order and turnover fell in 2018. He blamed this on a cement market characterised by overcapacity. However, if cement plant engineering was removed from the calculations then the incoming orders of German building material plant manufacturers would have risen by 17% year-on-year and turnover by 16%.

None of this is encouraging for the European cement equipment manufacturers. However, as we said in February 2019 (GCW 390), the market is changing and so too are the suppliers. A period of transition is to be expected. Recent good news from Denmark’s FLSmidth include an order for a new plant in Paraguay and sales figures for its vertical roller mills in 2018. Russia’s Eurocement ordered three mills from Germany’s Gebr. Pfeiffer just last week.

All the major multinational cement producers reported growing sales in 2018. Yet, the big growth was found outside of Europe, with China Resources Cement (CRC), Ultratech Cement and Dangote Cement all posting sales revenue growth of above 10%. Similarly, cement sales volumes continued to rise. CRC and Ultratech Cement were the standouts here, with the latter benefitting from its acquisitions including, most recently, Binani Cement. Concrete sales volumes were the same, rising for all the companies with the exception of Buzzi Unicem. It suffered market issues in Italy and Germany.

Graph 1: Sales revenue from selected multinational cement producers in 2017 and 2018 (Euro billions). Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 2: Cement sales volumes from selected multinational cement producers in 2017 and 2018 (Mt). Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 3: Ready-mixed concrete sales volumes from selected multinational concrete producers in 2017 and 2018 (Mm³). Source: Company financial reports.

With the major Chinese producers, including CNBM and Anhui Conch, yet to release their annual results for 2018, CRC is included in this roundup to give an idea of how that market is performing. Both CNBM and Anhui Conch have released profit alerts anticipating bumper results in 2018 though. This is likely due to boosted local cement prices.

The major story for the European-based producers was one of asset sales and debt reduction. LafargeHolcim returned to positive income in 2018 with a focus on its Strategy 2022 programme. HeidelbergCement’s earnings were hit by poor weather in the US and insufficient divestments. Cemex, although based in Mexico, retains a significant European presence and so it included here. It suffered from poor sales outside of its base in Mexico and the US. CRH continued on its trajectory as the world’s biggest building materials company with solid sales and earnings growth. Interestingly though given its expansion strategy in recent years CRH’s debt to earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBTIDA) ratio remains better than the other three majors above, even after its purchase of Ash Grove Cement in mid-2018 taken into account. Although other financial comparisons are worth considering, such as EBITDA margin.

Despite Cemex’s relatively high net debt compared to its peers it has been cutting its debt the fastest, at 8% to US$10.4bn in 2018. Its current plan is to reach an ‘investment-grade’ balance sheet by 2020. LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement are in ‘cuts’ mode leading to all sorts of speculation about where they might sell next. The wilder rumours in the press include preparations by LafargeHolcim to sell its entire operation in the Middle East and Africa. Similar tales about a sale in the Philippines are more credible but remain unconfirmed. HeidelbergCement is keeping its cards closer to its chest but poor performing territories that might be up for sale include some of its Italian plants and parts of Africa.

Of the larger producers without a European presence, Ultratech Cement has been negatively effected by energy costs during the nine months to the end of 2018 with its income and EBITDA down. Dangote Cement’s performance in 2018 was driven by sales at home in Nigeria although earnings elsewhere continued to grow.

With all of this in mind the scene appears set for a breakout by a major Chinese producer to buy a big bolt-on acquisition or expansion by regional or national players along the lines of that seen by Semen Indonesia or UltraTech Cement. Taiwan Cement has been ahead here with its purchase of a 40% stake in Turkey’s Oyak Cement but what we’re really waiting for is a majority position within a country or territory. At which point CNBM and the like will have earned its place in the 2019 version of this article. Perhaps the age of truly multinational cement producer is coming to an end as regional players become more prominent.

Cementos Molins’ financial results took a tumble this week, in part due to the poorly performing Argentinian economy. A decrease in sales in Mexico was also to blame but rampant inflation in Argentina caused the Spanish cement producer problems.

Cementos Molins owns a 51% stake in Cementos Avellaneda, with Brazil’s Votorantim Cimentos owning the remainder. Molins took pains in its financial report to point out that the aggregate rate of inflation had been 109% in mid-2018. Accordingly, its income and earnings in 2018 would have been much better if the economy had been in a better state. As it was, its income fell by 24% year-on-year to Euro134m and its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) dropped by 30% to Euro30.3m. Adjusted for negative inflationary effects these should have risen by 43% and 31% in 2018.

Graph 1: Construction activity in Argentina (year-on-year growth, %). Source: El Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos de la República Argentina (INDEC).

Graph 2: Monthly changes in cement despatches in Argentina (year-on-year growth, %). Source: Asociación de Fabricantes de Cemento Portland (AFCP).

The other major local producers, Loma Negra and LafargeHolcim Argentina, are owned by Brazil’s InterCement and Switzerland’s LafargeHolcim respectively. Both companies are due to present their financial results later this week but the signs were not looking good earlier in the financial year. In its third quarter results Loma Negra said that the general economy was dragging on cement demand. Construction activity data from El Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos de la República Argentina (INDEC) showed that growth nosedived in mid-2018. This corresponds roughly with falling year-on-year cement despatches. Loma Negra noted that the depreciation of the Argentine Peso was hitting its bottom line and that its cement sales volumes dropped by 6.2% to 1.61Mt in the third quarter of 2018 from 1.72Mt in the same period in 2017. Despite this, its net revenue grew by 42.3% in the nine months to the end of September 2018.

Understandably, much of the talk in Loma Negra’s third quarter earnings call was about the effects of local currency depreciation with questions about how the expenditure for its L’Amalí plant expansion project was split between different currencies or how fuel costs were being affected. More revealing though was information about Loma Negra’s plans to reduce production capacity as national demand falls. Chief executive officer (CEO) Sergio Faifman said that the production cost at L’Amalí would be US$15/t less than the national average and that its Olavarría and Barker integrated plants would be first in line for production cuts given their closeness to L’Amalí.

Holcim Argentina reported ‘significant’ growth until May 2018 in its third quarter report. From here its sales fell and it expected zero growth for the year as a whole. It blamed this on the state of the general economy, the lower attractiveness of mortgages in the residential sector and problems with infrastructure project financing. Its sales volumes of cement rose by 6.4% year-on-year to 2.54Mt in the first nine months of 2018 from 2.39Mt in the same period in 2017. Holcim Argentina also has an upgrade project underway, at its Malagueño cement plant near Córdoba. Once completed by the end of 2019, the project is expected to increase the unit’s production capacity by 0.73Mt to over 3Mt/yr.

The problems facing the Argentine cement producers are clearly due to the poor general economy. The government took a US$56bn loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in mid-2018 to shore up the situation. Since then the Argentinean Peso seems to have stabilised against the US Dollar and inflation has settled. At this point the question is whether this is the bottom of the economic trough. The other thing to note is that Argentina has faced economic problems at the same time as Turkey. Although Turkey has a much bigger cement industry, both countries are prominent cement producers in their regions.

The sad thing though is that the local cement market was facing shortages in late 2017, producers were investing in new production capacity and Loma Negra launched an initial public offering (IPO). All of this growth in the cement industry has been jeopardised by the general economy. Let’s hope it rebounds soon.

The UAE is having a moment. Over the last week Fujairah Natural Resources, a new entrant to cement, said it is going to build a clinker plant at Habbab in Fujairah. It’s also looking likely that Raysut Cement might buy UAE-based Fujairah Cement Company’s shares in Sohar Cement in Oman. Then, Ras Al Khaimah (RAK) Cement announced that it had purchased the Newtech cement plant. What’s happening here?

The last couple of years have been tough ones for Emirati cement producers, which have been fighting falling sales and beleaguered profits. The largest producer, Arkan Building Materials - a group majority controlled by the Abu Dhabi government, reported flat sales growth for the first nine months of 2018. It blamed this on falling sales of clinker due to imports from Iran and a tough pricing environment. Its profits were hit by rising clinker production costs due to its reliance on imported limestone from Oman whilst it resolves problems with its own local quarry. Arkan had closed its Emirates Cement plant in Al Ain following revenue and profit falls in 2016. This story thread reached its end earlier in February 2019 when Arkan sold the closed plant for around US$14m. National Cement reported a similar experience in its nine months results, with growing revenue but sales sapped by mounting costs.

Data from Riyad Capital in early-2018 suggested that the UAE only consumes about half of its own cement production. The rest is exported to the Middle East and North African region, particularly Oman and Egypt, and African countries. The country has 14 integrated cement plants with a production capacity of 31.4Mt/yr and eight grinding plants with a capacity of 10.4Mt/yr. These are owned by a mixture of local companies and multinationals.

The European producers still have a presence through LafargeHolcim’s Lafarge Emirates plant in Fujairah and a grinding plant run by Cemex. Although how long LafargeHolcim will remain seems uncertain given a report by Bloomberg earlier in February 2019 suggesting that the group is seriously looking at exiting the Middle East and Africa. Oman’s Raysut Cement holds a plant too via its Pioneer Cement subsidiary but the majority of the foreign-owned plants are Indian. Their presence has been steadily growing.

Aditya Birla/UltraTech Cement, JK Cement and Shree Cement all run plants in the UAE and JSW Cement said in mid-2018 that it was going to build a 1Mt/yr integrated plant in Fujairah. UltraTech Cement renamed its grinding plant UltraTech Nathdwara Cement in December 2018. This plant was formerly a Binani Cement plant and part of the rancorous bidding war between UltraTech Cement and Dalmia Bharat.

The background to all of this has been a country that is very willing to spend big on infrastructure projects when the need arises. Forbes reckoned, for example, that the UAE had awarded US$20.7bn on infrastructure projects in 2018 in the first nine months of 2018. Impending projects like the Expo 2020 are still generating construction activity and longer ones like Dubai Metro are in progress. However, the country is in a dynamic place geographically between the two-major economic and cement-producing powerhouses of Saudi Arabia and Iran. For the cement industry this explains the prominence of the grinding sector and the growing interest from Indian companies looking to expand overseas. For the new project and acquisition this week it’s looking more like local variation in the market at this stage. In this context though the fourth quarter results from local producers will make interesting reading to see if anything bigger is going on.