Analysis

Semen Indonesia’s third quarter results this week give us a reason to look at one of the world’s largest cement producing countries, Indonesia. As the local market leader, Semen Indonesia’s financial results have been positive so far in 2019 following its acquisition of Holcim Indonesia at the start of the year. Analysts at Fitch noted that gross margins for Semen Indonesia and its rival Indocement grew in the first half of 2019 as coal prices fell and cement sales prices rose.

Sales volumes, however tell a story of local production overcapacity and a move to exports. Domestic sales volumes fell by 2.05% year-on-year to 48.8Mt in the first nine months of 2019. Cement and clinker exports nearly compensated for this by rising by 15.4% to 4.8Mt. This is brisk growth but slower than the explosion of exports in 2018. Semen Indonesia’s local sales from its company before the acquisition fell faster than the national rate at 4.9% to 18.7Mt. The new sales from Solusi Bangun, the new name for Holcim Indonesia, partially alleviated this. It’s been a similar story for HeidelbergCement’s Indocement. Its sales revenue and income have risen so far in 2019. At the mid-year mark its sales volumes fell by 2.3% year-on-year to 29.4Mt.

Graph 1: Indonesian cement sales, January – September 2019. Source: Semen Indonesia.

Geographically, Indonesia Cement Association (ASI) data shows that over half of the country’s sales volumes (56%) were in Java in the first half of 2018. This was followed by Sumatra (22%), Sulawesi (8%), Kalimantan (also known as Indonesian Borneo, 6%), Bali-Nusa Tenggara (6%) and Maluku-Papua (2%). By cement type the market is dominated by bagged cement sales. It constituted 74% of sales in September 2019. The main producers have been keen to point out growth in bulk sales as its share has increased over the last decade.

Graph 2: Indonesian cement sales by type, 2010 – 2019. Source: Semen Indonesia/Indonesia Cement Association.

Previously the main story from the Indonesian market has been one of overcapacity and this has continued. It had a utilisation rate of 70% in 2018 from production volumes of 75.1Mt and a capacity of 110Mt, according to ASI data. This was likely to have been a major consideration in LafargeHolcim’s decision to leave the country and South-East Asia (see GCW379) with no end in sight to the situation in the short to medium term. At the end of 2018 it felt like consolidation was in progress following this sale and the reported sale of Semen Panasia. So far though this has been all and perhaps the upturn in the second quarter might buy the producers more time.

As mentioned at the start, another aspect of the Indonesian market deserving comment is that it is one of the first countries with a large cement sector where a Chinese company has made a significant entry. Conch Cement Indonesia, a subsidiary of China’s Anhui Conch, became the third largest producer following the acquisition of Holcim Indonesia. Semen Indonesia and Indocement control 70% of local installed capacity across both integrated and grinding plants with 51Mt/yr and 25.5Mt/yr respectively.

Conch Cement Indonesia is the next biggest with 8.7Mt from three integrated plants and a grinding unit. It’s in a tranche of three smaller producers locally, along with Semen Merah Putih and Semen Bosowa. Fitch also picked up on this in a research report on the cement sector published in August 2019. It pointed out that, although Holcim Indonesia and Indocement had gained pricing power through their leading market share, this is being eroded by local producers owned by Chinese companies.

Depending on how you look at it, Indonesia has the ‘fortune’ to be only the second largest producer in South-East Asia, after Vietnam. China, the world’s largest producer, is not too far away either. As can be seen above this can be a mixed blessing for local producers as the market changes. Overcapacity abounds, a major multinational has moved out, a local firm has consolidated the market as a result and Chinese influence grows steadily. Indonesia could well be an example of things to come for other markets.

The Australian cement supply spat calmed down a little this week with the announcement that Wagners Holdings has agreed to resume the supply of cement products from its Pinkenba grinding plant in Brisbane to Boral. Legal proceedings are still on-going with a trial date set at the Supreme Court of Queensland in late November 2019.

The argument blew up publicly in March 2019, when Wagners said it had suspended its cement supply to Boral for six months. Wagners has a cement supply agreement with Boral whereby it supplies cement on an annual basis for a fixed price. However, Boral informed Wagners that it had found cheaper cement from a ‘long established’ supplier in South East Queensland. Local press speculated that this ‘long established’ supplier was Cement Australia, the joint venture between LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement. Wagners then had the choice to either match the lower price or suspend its supply. The disagreement took the legal route as the parties failed to reach an agreement. Wagner says that its cement supply agreement with Boral ‘remains binding on both parties’ until 2031.

Wagners later reported that it expected the suspension to cost it around US$7m in 2019. The deal with Boral constituted about 40% of its cement sales volumes. Its overall revenue grew year-on-year in its 2019 business year to the end of June 2019 but its cement sales volumes fell. Its earnings also fell. This was blamed on higher activity in lower margin areas such as contract haulage and fixed plant concrete, and delays in major infrastructure project work in South-East Queensland.

Boral, meanwhile, suffered from falling revenue and earnings from its Boral Australia subsidiary in its financial year to June 2019 due to a slowing construction market. Notably, its cement sales revenue rose by 7% due to ‘favourable’ pricing, higher volumes and cost-saving programs. It didn’t say whether the cost cutting included sourcing cement from a different supplier! All of this though was counteracted by lower contributions from its Sunstate joint venture (JV) with Adelaide Brighton and higher fuel and clinker costs.

All of this is fascinating because these kinds of disputes usually remain out of the public eye. The large size of Wagners’ cement supply deal with Boral meant that when it was threatened it likely had to tell its shareholders due to the potential financial impact. Whether Boral can wriggle out of the contract is now a matter for the courts.

The broader picture is that even though Boral Australia’s cement division seemed to be growing in its 2019 financial year it was still trying to reduce its costs in the face of a decelerating construction market. Added to this, the companies hold both a supplier and a competitor relationship. On the production side Boral operates an integrated plant at Berrima in New South Wales (NSW), a grinding plant at Maldon, NSW and another grinding plant in its Sunstate JV at Brisbane, Queensland. Wagners runs its own grinding plant at Pinkenba, Queensland. Both companies operate concrete plants. This is not unusual for a concentrated industrial sector like cement but it creates problems for the regulators. Note that, also this week, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission was reportedly paying attention to the links between Barro Group and Adelaide Brighton. Barro owns a 43% stake in Adelaide Brighton but the authorities are concerned about a possible overlap in the two companies’ roles as suppliers of cement, concrete and aggregates. Any slowdown in construction in Australia seems likely to heighten these kinds of issues.

Interesting news from Holcim Mexico this week with the announcement that it is planning to invest US$40m towards building a 0.7Mt/yr grinding plant in the state of Yucátan. The unit will be supplied with clinker from Holcim Mexico’s Macuspana and Orizaba integrated cement plants. This follows the news in August 2018 that Elementia’s cement company, Cementos Fortaleza, had started to build a new 0.25Mt/yr grinding plant at Merida in Yucatan. That project has a budget of US$30m.

These two projects offer a contrast to comments made by the head of Cemex Mexico, Ricardo Naya Barba, who was lamenting the state of the market to local press at the start of the month. He said that sales volumes of cement, concrete and aggregates had fallen by 12 – 15% in the first seven months of 2019. He blamed the decline partly on falling national infrastructure investment. This marked a slight improvement on Cemex’s Mexican results for the first of 2019 where sales, sales volumes and earnings were all down. At this time as well as slowing infrastructure projects the situation was also attributed to a residential sector hit by the slower-than anticipated start of the new programs.

Elementia’s Mexican cement business, Cementos Fortaleza, reported a similar picture in the second quarter of 2019. Its net sales fell by 6% year-on-year to US65.4m from US$69.7m. This was attributed to a market contraction affecting all of Elementia’s businesses in the country, as well as the redefinition of its core products for the Building Systems business unit. Earnings fell also and this was further attributed to mounting energy and freight costs. Cementos Moctezuma faced many of the same issues. Its cement sales fell by 13% to US$147m in the second quarter of 2019. It is expecting a similar picture for the remainder of the year.

Data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) shows that the value of cement sales in Mexico fell by 7% year-on-year to US$1.21bn in the first quarter of 2019 from US$1.30bn in the same period in 2018. Cement sales volumes fell by 8.2% to 10.9Mt from 11.9Mt. This was the lowest figure since 2014.

The one larger Mexican cement producer that doesn’t seem to have been overly troubled so far in 2019 is Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua (GCC). Earlier in the year the company was considered to be the Mexican cement producer most at risk from potential US tariffs due to higher reliance on exports than its competitors. Yet Mexico’s National Chamber of Cement (CANACEM) publicly said that that it didn’t consider US tariffs a significant barrier to the local industry. GCC reported growing net sales and cement sales volumes in the second quarter of 2019 due to industrial warehouse construction, mining projects and middle-income housing at the northern cities.

Two new grinding plants in a particular region of Mexico don’t necessarily reflect the state of the country’s industry as a whole. Yucatan may suit the grinding model due to a lack of raw materials or strong shipping links. The region may also be defying the gloomy national state of affairs in the construction sector. Alternatively, producers may be chasing low-cost and low-risk expansion plans in a tough market. The grinding model wins out over the clinker producing one in this scenario. In the wider picture in August 2019 Cemento Cruz Azul ordered two petcoke grinding mills from Germany’s Loesche and Austria’s Unitherm Cemcon said it had been awarded the supply of an MAS DT burner to an unnamed cement plant. These suggest that, although the sector may be having a bad year so far, things are expected to get better.

SNIC, the Brazilian national cement industry union, was being cautious this week but signs of improvement were there. Its cement sales data showed a 3% year-on-year rise to 40.5Mt for the first nine months of 2019 from 39.4Mt in the same period in 2018. SNIC President Paulo Camillo Penna was keen to pour cold water over the figures with a reminder that the truck driver’s strike and an economic slowdown in 2018 had unnaturally depressed industry sales. He didn’t want to ruin the party too much though. Comments followed about a National Confederation of Industry (CNI) survey forecasting growth for the next six months and market research supporting growing residential construction.

Graph 1: Cement sales in Brazil for Q1 – 3, 2014 – 2019. Source: SNIC.

As Graph 1 above shows the local industry has been through the wringer in recent years. Cement sales peaked in 2014 before the national economy was hit by falling commodity and oil prices that contributed to a recession as well as the Petrobras political crisis. At the start of 2017 Camillo Penna described the situation as the worst in the industry’s history. From the peak to the trough cement sales plummeted by 27%.

Camillo Penna’s caution now may have something to do with his previous prediction that the industry was going to recover from the second half of 2018. The sales may not have perked up but merger and acquisition activity did, with the European multinationals Buzzi Unicem and Vicat buying stakes in BCPAR (Grupo Ricardo Brennand) and Cimento Planalto (Ciplan) respectively. So far in 2019 it has been quietly optimistic but not without the odd hiccup. There have been a few new plant project announcements from Brennand Group, Votorantim and CSN Cimentos. Yet, InterCement converted its integrated Pedro Leopoldo plant in Minas Gerais to a terminal. Cimento Tupi reportedly ran into trouble with its investors when it tried to merge with its parent company following defaulting on loan payments in 2018. Notably, the country’s two cement associations also released a Cement Technology Roadmap to 2050 in April 2019. It plans to reduce specific CO2 emissions by over 30% from 2014 to 375kg CO2/t of cement in 2050 amongst other ambitions.

On the corporate side, Votorantim’s domestic sales rose by 3% year-on-year to US$771m in the first half of 2019 from US$745m in the same period in 2018. It attributed the growth to improved prices. Other news of note included the acquisition of a mortar plant in Belém, Pará state and plans to upgrade its clinker grinding unit at Pecém in Ceará. InterCement’s cement and clinker sales volumes rose by 6.8% to 4.04Mt from 3.78Mt. It declared that this was way ahead of the industry average of 1.5%. Sales revenue fell slightly, possibly due to high production overcapacity and competition on prices. Earnings were also reported as having improved in the second quarter partly due to a ‘significant’ reduction in its cost structure.

On the supplier side, refractory manufacturer RHI Magnesita reported that its margin recovery was ‘going quite well’ in Brazil during the first half of 2019. Stefan Borgas, RHI Magnesita’s chief executive officer (CEO) forecast that the margin in that country would help drive its business in the second half of 2019 and that the business was returning to the global average. RHI Magnesita also announced a Euro57.1m upgrade to its plant at Contagem, Belo Horizonte in Minas Gerais this week, including building a new regional headquarters for its South American business.

Everything seems to be coming together slowly for Brazil’s cement industry. Yet Camillo Penna and SNIC are right to be careful for another reason. The United Nations (UN) and various analysts are warning about the growing risk of global recession in 2020 based on indicators like the US yield curve. This could be especially devastating for an economy like Brazil’s that is heavily dependent on commodity markets. History may not repeat itself but the strength of that recovery may be tested sooner than anyone would like.

The race to find a buyer for Emami Cement heated up this week with the announcement in the local press that both LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement had submitted expressions of interest. The Hindu newspaper and others were also linking Nuvoco Vistas Corporation, Shree Cement and Dalmia Bharat to the sale. India’s market leader UltraTech Cement was also in talks with the company back in June 2019.

The subsidiary of Emami Group is being sold by the parent company to cut debt. Speculation on the value of Emami Cement has varied in the media from US$800m to up to US$1.26bn. This variation is possibly linked to upgrades that the company has on the way. It operates a 2.5Mt/yr integrated plant at Risda in Chhattisgarh and a 2.5Mt/yr grinding plant at Panagarh in West Bengal. It acquired a 0.6Mt/yr grinding plant at Bhabua, Bihar in 2018. This unit is being upgraded to 1.8Mt/yr. It is also yet to commission a 2.5Mt/yr grinding plant at Jaipur in Odisha. In addition, the firm has mining assets in Guntur in Andhra Pradesh and near Jaipur in Rajasthan.

Global Cement Magazine staff are attending a variety of industry events this week including the Cembureau Energy Market Prospects (CemProspects) conference in Krakow, Poland, the TÇMB International Technical Seminar in Antalya, Turkey and the European Slag Association (Euroslag) conference in Thessaloniki, Greece. Watch out for reviews of each of these either in forthcoming issues of the magazine or on the website.

Of note to India, various speakers on the first day at CemProspects were extolling the virtues of that market. The country was reported as ‘promising’ in a general review of world cement markets amongst a very mixed situation. Specifically on energy markets, Darren Malone, IHS Markit said that coal imports were ‘ahead’ so far in 2019 as US suppliers benefitted from power plants maintaining orders in an election year. Imports are growing at 7%/yr as the country’s industries need energy. In the long term his view was that India would become the world’s biggest coal importer unless domestic production increases its share. Anecdotal evidence was also raised on exporting SRF from the UK to India as cement kiln coprocessing rates slowly start to rise. This point is matched by the various Indian waste deals we’ve been noticing on our sister website Global CemFuels in recent years.

Coal markets are pertinent to the Emami Cement sales because some sources quoted in the Indian media have pointed out that the cement producer does not have any coal linkages. As such it is more vulnerable to market variations. This kind of talk is clearly part of the bargaining process but, in the wider picture, cement producers’ energy sources are critical. In the context of the Emami Cement sale, this might just determine which side of US$1bn the transaction ends up on. The sale continues.