Analysis

The Australian cement supply spat calmed down a little this week with the announcement that Wagners Holdings has agreed to resume the supply of cement products from its Pinkenba grinding plant in Brisbane to Boral. Legal proceedings are still on-going with a trial date set at the Supreme Court of Queensland in late November 2019.

The argument blew up publicly in March 2019, when Wagners said it had suspended its cement supply to Boral for six months. Wagners has a cement supply agreement with Boral whereby it supplies cement on an annual basis for a fixed price. However, Boral informed Wagners that it had found cheaper cement from a ‘long established’ supplier in South East Queensland. Local press speculated that this ‘long established’ supplier was Cement Australia, the joint venture between LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement. Wagners then had the choice to either match the lower price or suspend its supply. The disagreement took the legal route as the parties failed to reach an agreement. Wagner says that its cement supply agreement with Boral ‘remains binding on both parties’ until 2031.

Wagners later reported that it expected the suspension to cost it around US$7m in 2019. The deal with Boral constituted about 40% of its cement sales volumes. Its overall revenue grew year-on-year in its 2019 business year to the end of June 2019 but its cement sales volumes fell. Its earnings also fell. This was blamed on higher activity in lower margin areas such as contract haulage and fixed plant concrete, and delays in major infrastructure project work in South-East Queensland.

Boral, meanwhile, suffered from falling revenue and earnings from its Boral Australia subsidiary in its financial year to June 2019 due to a slowing construction market. Notably, its cement sales revenue rose by 7% due to ‘favourable’ pricing, higher volumes and cost-saving programs. It didn’t say whether the cost cutting included sourcing cement from a different supplier! All of this though was counteracted by lower contributions from its Sunstate joint venture (JV) with Adelaide Brighton and higher fuel and clinker costs.

All of this is fascinating because these kinds of disputes usually remain out of the public eye. The large size of Wagners’ cement supply deal with Boral meant that when it was threatened it likely had to tell its shareholders due to the potential financial impact. Whether Boral can wriggle out of the contract is now a matter for the courts.

The broader picture is that even though Boral Australia’s cement division seemed to be growing in its 2019 financial year it was still trying to reduce its costs in the face of a decelerating construction market. Added to this, the companies hold both a supplier and a competitor relationship. On the production side Boral operates an integrated plant at Berrima in New South Wales (NSW), a grinding plant at Maldon, NSW and another grinding plant in its Sunstate JV at Brisbane, Queensland. Wagners runs its own grinding plant at Pinkenba, Queensland. Both companies operate concrete plants. This is not unusual for a concentrated industrial sector like cement but it creates problems for the regulators. Note that, also this week, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission was reportedly paying attention to the links between Barro Group and Adelaide Brighton. Barro owns a 43% stake in Adelaide Brighton but the authorities are concerned about a possible overlap in the two companies’ roles as suppliers of cement, concrete and aggregates. Any slowdown in construction in Australia seems likely to heighten these kinds of issues.

Interesting news from Holcim Mexico this week with the announcement that it is planning to invest US$40m towards building a 0.7Mt/yr grinding plant in the state of Yucátan. The unit will be supplied with clinker from Holcim Mexico’s Macuspana and Orizaba integrated cement plants. This follows the news in August 2018 that Elementia’s cement company, Cementos Fortaleza, had started to build a new 0.25Mt/yr grinding plant at Merida in Yucatan. That project has a budget of US$30m.

These two projects offer a contrast to comments made by the head of Cemex Mexico, Ricardo Naya Barba, who was lamenting the state of the market to local press at the start of the month. He said that sales volumes of cement, concrete and aggregates had fallen by 12 – 15% in the first seven months of 2019. He blamed the decline partly on falling national infrastructure investment. This marked a slight improvement on Cemex’s Mexican results for the first of 2019 where sales, sales volumes and earnings were all down. At this time as well as slowing infrastructure projects the situation was also attributed to a residential sector hit by the slower-than anticipated start of the new programs.

Elementia’s Mexican cement business, Cementos Fortaleza, reported a similar picture in the second quarter of 2019. Its net sales fell by 6% year-on-year to US65.4m from US$69.7m. This was attributed to a market contraction affecting all of Elementia’s businesses in the country, as well as the redefinition of its core products for the Building Systems business unit. Earnings fell also and this was further attributed to mounting energy and freight costs. Cementos Moctezuma faced many of the same issues. Its cement sales fell by 13% to US$147m in the second quarter of 2019. It is expecting a similar picture for the remainder of the year.

Data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) shows that the value of cement sales in Mexico fell by 7% year-on-year to US$1.21bn in the first quarter of 2019 from US$1.30bn in the same period in 2018. Cement sales volumes fell by 8.2% to 10.9Mt from 11.9Mt. This was the lowest figure since 2014.

The one larger Mexican cement producer that doesn’t seem to have been overly troubled so far in 2019 is Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua (GCC). Earlier in the year the company was considered to be the Mexican cement producer most at risk from potential US tariffs due to higher reliance on exports than its competitors. Yet Mexico’s National Chamber of Cement (CANACEM) publicly said that that it didn’t consider US tariffs a significant barrier to the local industry. GCC reported growing net sales and cement sales volumes in the second quarter of 2019 due to industrial warehouse construction, mining projects and middle-income housing at the northern cities.

Two new grinding plants in a particular region of Mexico don’t necessarily reflect the state of the country’s industry as a whole. Yucatan may suit the grinding model due to a lack of raw materials or strong shipping links. The region may also be defying the gloomy national state of affairs in the construction sector. Alternatively, producers may be chasing low-cost and low-risk expansion plans in a tough market. The grinding model wins out over the clinker producing one in this scenario. In the wider picture in August 2019 Cemento Cruz Azul ordered two petcoke grinding mills from Germany’s Loesche and Austria’s Unitherm Cemcon said it had been awarded the supply of an MAS DT burner to an unnamed cement plant. These suggest that, although the sector may be having a bad year so far, things are expected to get better.

SNIC, the Brazilian national cement industry union, was being cautious this week but signs of improvement were there. Its cement sales data showed a 3% year-on-year rise to 40.5Mt for the first nine months of 2019 from 39.4Mt in the same period in 2018. SNIC President Paulo Camillo Penna was keen to pour cold water over the figures with a reminder that the truck driver’s strike and an economic slowdown in 2018 had unnaturally depressed industry sales. He didn’t want to ruin the party too much though. Comments followed about a National Confederation of Industry (CNI) survey forecasting growth for the next six months and market research supporting growing residential construction.

Graph 1: Cement sales in Brazil for Q1 – 3, 2014 – 2019. Source: SNIC.

As Graph 1 above shows the local industry has been through the wringer in recent years. Cement sales peaked in 2014 before the national economy was hit by falling commodity and oil prices that contributed to a recession as well as the Petrobras political crisis. At the start of 2017 Camillo Penna described the situation as the worst in the industry’s history. From the peak to the trough cement sales plummeted by 27%.

Camillo Penna’s caution now may have something to do with his previous prediction that the industry was going to recover from the second half of 2018. The sales may not have perked up but merger and acquisition activity did, with the European multinationals Buzzi Unicem and Vicat buying stakes in BCPAR (Grupo Ricardo Brennand) and Cimento Planalto (Ciplan) respectively. So far in 2019 it has been quietly optimistic but not without the odd hiccup. There have been a few new plant project announcements from Brennand Group, Votorantim and CSN Cimentos. Yet, InterCement converted its integrated Pedro Leopoldo plant in Minas Gerais to a terminal. Cimento Tupi reportedly ran into trouble with its investors when it tried to merge with its parent company following defaulting on loan payments in 2018. Notably, the country’s two cement associations also released a Cement Technology Roadmap to 2050 in April 2019. It plans to reduce specific CO2 emissions by over 30% from 2014 to 375kg CO2/t of cement in 2050 amongst other ambitions.

On the corporate side, Votorantim’s domestic sales rose by 3% year-on-year to US$771m in the first half of 2019 from US$745m in the same period in 2018. It attributed the growth to improved prices. Other news of note included the acquisition of a mortar plant in Belém, Pará state and plans to upgrade its clinker grinding unit at Pecém in Ceará. InterCement’s cement and clinker sales volumes rose by 6.8% to 4.04Mt from 3.78Mt. It declared that this was way ahead of the industry average of 1.5%. Sales revenue fell slightly, possibly due to high production overcapacity and competition on prices. Earnings were also reported as having improved in the second quarter partly due to a ‘significant’ reduction in its cost structure.

On the supplier side, refractory manufacturer RHI Magnesita reported that its margin recovery was ‘going quite well’ in Brazil during the first half of 2019. Stefan Borgas, RHI Magnesita’s chief executive officer (CEO) forecast that the margin in that country would help drive its business in the second half of 2019 and that the business was returning to the global average. RHI Magnesita also announced a Euro57.1m upgrade to its plant at Contagem, Belo Horizonte in Minas Gerais this week, including building a new regional headquarters for its South American business.

Everything seems to be coming together slowly for Brazil’s cement industry. Yet Camillo Penna and SNIC are right to be careful for another reason. The United Nations (UN) and various analysts are warning about the growing risk of global recession in 2020 based on indicators like the US yield curve. This could be especially devastating for an economy like Brazil’s that is heavily dependent on commodity markets. History may not repeat itself but the strength of that recovery may be tested sooner than anyone would like.

The race to find a buyer for Emami Cement heated up this week with the announcement in the local press that both LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement had submitted expressions of interest. The Hindu newspaper and others were also linking Nuvoco Vistas Corporation, Shree Cement and Dalmia Bharat to the sale. India’s market leader UltraTech Cement was also in talks with the company back in June 2019.

The subsidiary of Emami Group is being sold by the parent company to cut debt. Speculation on the value of Emami Cement has varied in the media from US$800m to up to US$1.26bn. This variation is possibly linked to upgrades that the company has on the way. It operates a 2.5Mt/yr integrated plant at Risda in Chhattisgarh and a 2.5Mt/yr grinding plant at Panagarh in West Bengal. It acquired a 0.6Mt/yr grinding plant at Bhabua, Bihar in 2018. This unit is being upgraded to 1.8Mt/yr. It is also yet to commission a 2.5Mt/yr grinding plant at Jaipur in Odisha. In addition, the firm has mining assets in Guntur in Andhra Pradesh and near Jaipur in Rajasthan.

Global Cement Magazine staff are attending a variety of industry events this week including the Cembureau Energy Market Prospects (CemProspects) conference in Krakow, Poland, the TÇMB International Technical Seminar in Antalya, Turkey and the European Slag Association (Euroslag) conference in Thessaloniki, Greece. Watch out for reviews of each of these either in forthcoming issues of the magazine or on the website.

Of note to India, various speakers on the first day at CemProspects were extolling the virtues of that market. The country was reported as ‘promising’ in a general review of world cement markets amongst a very mixed situation. Specifically on energy markets, Darren Malone, IHS Markit said that coal imports were ‘ahead’ so far in 2019 as US suppliers benefitted from power plants maintaining orders in an election year. Imports are growing at 7%/yr as the country’s industries need energy. In the long term his view was that India would become the world’s biggest coal importer unless domestic production increases its share. Anecdotal evidence was also raised on exporting SRF from the UK to India as cement kiln coprocessing rates slowly start to rise. This point is matched by the various Indian waste deals we’ve been noticing on our sister website Global CemFuels in recent years.

Coal markets are pertinent to the Emami Cement sales because some sources quoted in the Indian media have pointed out that the cement producer does not have any coal linkages. As such it is more vulnerable to market variations. This kind of talk is clearly part of the bargaining process but, in the wider picture, cement producers’ energy sources are critical. In the context of the Emami Cement sale, this might just determine which side of US$1bn the transaction ends up on. The sale continues.

No overarching theme this week but rather four changes of note in different markets. The first is Lehigh Hanson’s agreement to buy the integrated Bath plant in Pennsylvania, US, from Giant Cement, a subsidiary of Mexico’s Elementia. Lehigh Hanson, a subsidiary of Germany’s HeidelbergCement, plans to pay US$151m for the 1.1Mt/yr unit giving it a cost of US$137/t of cement capacity. That’s a similar price that Elementia paid when it acquired Giant Cement in 2016. The Mexican conglomerate paid US$220m for a 55% stake in 2016 for three cement plants with a combined production capacity of 2.8Mt/yr or US$143/t.

The purchase by HeidelbergCement draws a line following problems selling its business activities in Ukraine. The group blamed a drop in profit in the first half of 2019 on this. Since then though it has been linked to a takeover of UltraTech’s stake in Emirates Cement, the owner of the 0.5Mt/yr Emirates grinding plant in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Buying a cement plant in North America, its second most lucrative region after Western and Southern Europe, looks set to be a wise investment.

The timing here is interesting given that Elementia, the building materials company partly-owned by ‘Mexico’s richest man,’ Carlos Slim, has been steadily expanding in recent years. As stated above it only acquired Giant Cement in 2016. However, its net sales and earnings fell in the second quarter of 2019 caused by a market contraction in Mexico affecting all of its businesses. Sales from its cement businesses in the US and Central America grew but they fell by 6% at home in Mexico. Elementia said that proceeds from the sale of the Bath plant will be used for debt repayment and ‘general’ corporate purposes. Notably, Ricardo Naya Barba, the president of Cemex Mexico, has also described the local market as ‘difficult’ this week, in comments reported upon by local media.

Meanwhile in Africa, China’s Huaxin Cement purchased Maweni Limestone from Athi River Mining (ARM) Cement in Tanzania as part of the latter’s on-going administration process. Local press reported the transaction as costing US$116m and subject to regulatory approval. This one’s interesting because it shows a major Chinese cement producer buying related assets outside of China. This is likely part of the country’s Belt and Road Initiative to develop industry and infrastructure around the world and to give its overproducing industries new markets. Perhaps the surprise here is that Huaxin Cement hasn’t gone after the rest of Kenya’s ARM Cement… yet.

The other African news story of note this week was the confirmation that Singapore’s International Cement Group (ICG)’s intended purchase of Schwenk Namibia had failed. This deal was announced in March 2019 but it later ran into trouble when the Singapore Exchange blocked the proposed acquisition in June 2019 on the grounds that ICG didn’t appear to have the money to pay for it.

Lastly, Yamama Cement announced that it wants to sell its Production Lines 1-5, which have a daily clinker production capacity of 5600t/day. The producer previously temporarily shut down the lines in 2017 and it has been planning to build a new cement plant. Since then though it has faced shrinking sales and profits in the tough Saudi Arabian market.

The takeaway from all of this is that, despite the doom and gloom of a world producing too much clinker, some cement companies are targeting growth in specific territories. Sometimes these schemes succeed, as in the case of HeidelbergCement and Huaxin Cement, and sometimes they don’t, as ICG has found out. Heavy building materials like cement are costly to move around so a plant or assets in the right place at the right time can make a fortune.