Analysis

The Bangladeshi cement industry has been busy over the last month. Both Vietnam and Iran have marked up the country as a major destination for their exports. No change there, but Saudi Arabia has also started to join them as its producers have started announcing clinker export deals to the country. Alongside this there have also been production upgrades announced from MI Cement, Chhatak Cement and a Saudi-led partnership. Also, just before Christmas, Shah Cement inaugurated the world’s largest vertical roller mill (VRM) with a 8.1m grinding table, supplied by Denmark’s FLSmidth, at its Muktarpur plant in Munshiganj.

Md Shahidullah, vice president of the Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association (BCMA), described 2018 as a good year for the local industry to local media. Cement sales rose to 33Mt and consumption grew by 12% year-on-year.

The country has an integrated production capacity of 8.4Mt/yr from eight plants according to Global Cement Directory data. The main plants are Chhatak Cement and Lafarge Surma Cement. Locally produced clinker accounts for about 20% of the country’s needs, with the other 80% imported from abroad. Hence, the action is really with the grinding plants and the country has over 30 of them. A market report by EBL Securities in mid-2017 reckoned that local cement production capacity was 40Mt/yr but that actual production was around 32Mt in the 2016 - 2017 reporting year due to problems with power supplies and so on. Given the focus on grinding it’s interesting to note imports of clinker. These rose by 9% year-on-year to a value of US$518m in 2017 - 2018, the highest figure since 2014 - 2015. Not all of this may be consumption related since the local currency, the Taka, depreciated against the US dollar in 2017 and 2018.

Back in 2016 the market leaders were Shah Cement, LafargeHolcim Bangladesh, Bashundhara Group, Seven Rings Cement and HeidelbergCement. They accounted for about half of the market share. Of these LafargeHolcim Bangladesh saw its revenue nearly double year-on-year to US$101m from US$58m in the first half of 2018. Its profit did double to US$6.3m from US$2.7m. The company is a joint venture between LafargeHolcim, Spain’s Cementos Molins and other partners.

Bangladesh suits a grinding-based industry due to its high level of navigable waterways and low levels of limestone. In some respects though the country is a glimpse of what future cement markets might look like. Its lack of raw materials means it focuses on grinding and a clinker-rich world plays right into this. This creates an oversaturated market full of lots of companies due to the lower cost of setting up a grinding business or cement trading. In theory this should be great for end consumers and the general development of the country. After all Bangladesh has a high population, of 164 million, and a low gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, US$4561, and similarly low per capita consumption of cement. The downside though is that reliance on external raw materials. Any changes to exchange rates or material supply puts the entire industry at risk or puts prices in flux. In the meantime though the interest by Saudi exporters adds an interesting dynamic to a crowded market.

More details from HeidelbergCement this week on its divestment strategy. It has sold its half-share in Ciment Québec in Canada and a minority share in a company in Syria. A closed cement plant in Egypt is being sold and it is working on divesting its business in Ukraine. Altogether these four sales will generate Euro150m for the group. Chairman Bernd Scheifele said that the company expects to rake in Euro500m from asset sales in 2018. It has a target of Euro1.5bn by the end of 2020.

In purely cement terms that is something like seven integrated plants. So the usual game follows of considering what assets HeidelbergCement might consider selling. The group offered a few clues in a presentation that Scheifele was due to give earlier this week at the Commerzbank German Investment Seminar in New York.

First of all the producer said that it was hopeful for 2019 due to limited energy cost inflation, better weather in the US, the Indonesian market turning, general margin improvement actions and sustained price rises in Europe. It then said that its divestments would focus on three main categories: non-core business, weak market positions and idle assets. The first covers sectors outside of the trio of cement, aggregates and ready-mix concrete. Things like white cement plants or sand lime brick production. Countries or areas it identified it had already executed divestments in included Saudi Arabia, Georgia, Syria and Quebec in Canada. Idle assets included depleted quarries and land.

The first obvious candidate for divestment could be the company’s two majority owned integrated plants in the Democratic Republic of Congo. These might be considered targets due to the political instability in the country. However, this is balanced by the potential long-term gains once that country stabilises. Alternatively, some of the plants in Italy seem like a target. The company had seven integrated plants, eight grinding plants and one terminal in 2018.

The presentation also pointed out the sharp rise in European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) CO₂ emissions allowances, from around Euro5/t in 2017 to up to Euro20/t by the end of 2018. In late 2018 Cementa, a subsidiary of HeidelbergCement in Sweden, said it was considering closing Degerhamn plant due to mounting environmental costs. The group reckons it can fight a high carbon price through consolidation, capacity closure, higher utilisation, limited exports and pricing. It also pointed out that it is a technology leader in carbon reduction projects. It will be interesting to see how environmental costs play into HeidelbergCement’s divestment decisions.

Finally, a tweet by Sasja Beslik, the head of sustainable finance at Nordea, flagged up a few cement companies as being the worst companies for increasing CO₂ emissions between 2011 and 2016. HeidelbergCement was 19th on the list after LafargeHolcim and CRH. Sure, cement production makes CO₂ but it’s far from clear whether the data from MSCI took into account that each of these companies had expanded heavily during this time. In HeidelbergCement’s case it bought Italcementi in 2016. Cement companies aren’t perfect but sometimes there’s just no justice.

Peru’s been the place over the last week with news reports of new production capacity and its targeting as a key export market by Vietnam.

Local press reported this week that three new cement grinding plants are planned to start production in 2019. Cemento Inka plans to build a 0.6Mt/yr grinding plant at Ica near Pisco. It also plans to upgrade the kilns at its plant at Cajamarquilla near Lima. Then Mixercon, a ready-mix concrete firm, wants to spend US$20m towards building two new plants in northern Lima, also in 2019. It also has plans to open distribution centres around the capital too.

For a local industry generally dominated by local often family-controlled producers this is quite a change. The larger companies – Pacasmayo, UNACEM and Yura – normally dominate the headlines and the market here. Unsurprisingly then that Pacasmayo and Yura also have upgrades planned for their plants in 2019 too.

Changes to capacity started in late May 2018 when Salaverry-based importer Invecem was said to be buying equipment for a 0.25Mt/yr grinding plant. Then things really started moving when Unacem bought Cementos Portland (Cempor), a joint venture between Chile's Cementos Bío Bío and Brazil’s Votorantim Cimentos. The foreign companies were planning to build a plant near Lima but the project was delayed by a legal battle over environmental issues intitiated by Unacem. This was followed by Cal & Cemento Sur (Calcesur), a subsidiary of Grupo Gloria, announcing that it was going to add a new production line to its cement and lime plant in Puno.

With this level of interest in grinding plants going on it’s unsurprising that Vietnam, a major exporter of cement, has taken an interest. Imports of cement to Peru rose by 65% year-on-year to 0.94Mt in the 12 months from December 2017 to November 2018 from 0.57Mt in the same period previously. Imports of clinker rose by 37% to 0.78Mt from 0.57Mt. This compares to a rise of 21% to 0.61Mt in cement imports in 2017 and a fall of 1.2% to 0.51Mt in 2016. In the 12 months to the end of November 2018 most of that imported cement (81%) came from Vietnam followed by 14% from China and 3% from Mexico. Clinker imports have been more varied with 39% from South Korea, 31% from Vietnam, 19% from Ecuador and 11% from Japan. The general situation for the clinker producers has been a slight increase in cement production to 10Mt for the 12 months to the end of November 2018 and slightly higher increases in despatches.

So, it looks like an apparent cement demand is up in Peru and the importers are rushing to meeting demand. The question, then, is why haven’t the clinker producers announced projects to squeeze out the grinders? As mentioned above Pacasmayo and Yura have upgrades planned but nothing really large seems to be coming yet. Also, given the tough time Cempor was given by the local companies what kind of opposition are the new projects by Cemento Inka, Mixercon and Invecem likely to face? The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is below the glory days of the 2000s when it topped 6% but it is still one of the strongest in South America with 3.8% forecast for 2019 by the World Bank. This is the country in the region to watch in 2019.

Making predictions is a mug’s game. Mug, if you don’t know already, is British slang for a fool. Although you can also drink tea or coffee out of a mug. Newspapers and magazines love predictions at this time of year and Global Cement is no exception. But before we give you our predictions, let’s see how a real expert got on 36 years ago. The science fiction author Isaac Asimov, of Three Laws of Robotics fame, had a go in 1983 when he was asked by the Toronto Star newspaper to try and guess the state of the world in 2019. You can read his original article here.

First up for a construction audience is where the great writer of fiction set in space gets it wrong: space. Asimov thought we’d be on the moon ‘in force’ by 2019, building a mining station to process minerals to make materials such as a concrete, metals, ceramics and glass. Other projects would include satellite solar farms in low earth orbit, observatories, factories and serious planning towards an off-earth settlement. ‘Mooncrete’ or ‘lunarcrete’ is definitely a theoretical thing that has received academic thought since the mid-1980s. We’re guessing that CO₂ emissions for cement and concrete would be less of a problem on the moon! Observatories and probes like the Hubble Space Telescope satellite have enriched astronomy. Factories and extra-terrestrial settlements appear another 36 years away.

As for the rest of the predictions, Asimov starts off with an immediate misstep for us smug citizens of 2019 with a riff on a potential nuclear confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union invalidating everything else he was about to say. Past this opening fumble though he’s not bad. He immediately identifies computers as the source of coming change on the scale of the industrial revolution as they enable some human jobs to be replaced and change the nature of others. Next up he identifies pollution and overpopulation as concerns for society before heading on to the importance of trans-national organisations to tackle these issues. He’s generally on trend although there are plenty of holes. For example, he doesn’t foresee networking effects such as a social media and the political implications of enhanced connectivity.

So, having seen how well a noted science fiction author got on, our first forecast is not to trust our predictions. However, if you really want to hear our thoughts, read on.

Chinese cement companies continue to build plants overseas
The background to this is that Song Zhiping, the former chairman of China National Building Material (CNBM) said in late 2017 that the company was planning to build 100 new plants in 50 countries by 2021. Lots of Chinese companies are backing projects in Central Asia and Africa. Many of these are joint ventures. The question arises as to what will happen if local investors default on their loan repayments…

Indian market heats up
Many of the major cement producers are betting on India in 2019 to hold their finances together. The Cement Manufacturers Association of India has forecast growth of 10% in the 2019 financial year to the end of March 2019, the fastest growth in the sector since it slowed down in 2011. A pledge by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to cut the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on cement to 18% from 28% can only help the market.

A tale of two Africas
By the demographics, investing in Africa should be a no-brainer for cement companies as countries develop. However, northern Africa is rapidly turning into an export market as capacity outstrips local demand. Sub-Saharan Africa is decidedly mixed as the coastal regions potentially get swamped by foreign clinker imports and capacity investments further inland can be risky. The current political instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo is one example of this. Another, the collapse of Kenya’s ARM Cement in mid-2018 offers a warning to investors of what can happen when things go wrong. Producers like Ngieria’s Dangote Cement are waiting in the wings to snap up a bargain. Expect more of the same in 2019.

Acquisitions to continue in Brazil
After years of poor performance the acquisitions and divestments in the cement industry finally started in Brazil in 2018. A new ‘pro-business’ president and a growing economy suggests that this trend should continue in 2019.

European cement producers test how fast legislators are prepared to meet climate commitments
European cement associations were warning in 2018 that the local industry faces issues balancing competiveness versus tightening climate legislation. In October 2018 three plants – two in Spain and one in Sweden – were targeted for closure proving that the associations were not kidding. More difficult choices are likely to follow in 2019.

If any readers have their own industry forecasts for 2019 let us know by emailing This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. If we get enough we’ll run a recap at the end of the year to let everyone know how they got on.

Happy New Year from Global Cement!

Previously we’ve finished the year by recapping the major news stories from an editorial perspective. If you’re interested in that approach we suggest you read the trends articles in the December 2018 issue of Global Cement Magazine. Here on the website though we’ve decided to run it by readership figures. So, instead of suggesting what we think you should be interested in, we’re flagging up what you are actually stimulated by. Fortunately, unlike the search engines, we don’t run the kind of content to make one lose faith in humanity. Nevertheless though there are some interesting observations to make.

Top 5 country tags on Global Cement website in 2018

5. Egypt
4. Vietnam
3. Pakistan
2. Philippines
1. India

Firstly, as the list of country tags shows the emphasis from readers is very much on developing economies with strong cement industries. India is the second biggest cement producing country in the world and the others are all major manufacturers in their regions. The Philippines is riding an infrastructure boom, Pakistan is a major exporter of cement and has its own infrastructure growth from Chinese investment, Vietnam is another major exporter and Egypt is the largest producer in Africa. Incidentally, Egypt opened a 13Mt/yr cement plant at Beni Suef with six production lines in 2018. These are places where the action is at in the cement industry.

Top 10 news stories on Global Cement website in 2018

10. Big Boss Cement to launch in the Philippines
9. Dalmia Bharat set to buy Kalyanpur Cement
8. Wonder Cement plant launched in Maharashtra
7. LafargeHolcim to sell US$1.7bn of assets after poor first half
6. Birla Corporation confirms plans to build new cement plant at Mukutban
5. ACC in talks to buy remaining cement business from Jaiprakash Associates
4. LafargeHolcim to close Paris headquarters
3. Global Cement & Concrete Association launches
2. ThyssenKrupp to build new cement plant for LafargeHolcim in Morocco
1. Brisk cement trade reported at Ethiopian-Eritrean border

As for the news stories there are several general trends to note. Firstly, the machinations of the Indian producers fill up four of the top ten positions. We’ve noted the size of the industry but it is also worth remembering the common use of English in that country. Secondly, the world’s largest multinational cement producer, LafargeHolcim receives three mentions. Again, no surprise here. We have shades of the company realigning itself after poor financial results and pointing at developing countries. The closure of the former Lafarge headquarters in Paris ties into the former and strikes a nostalgic note following the merger between Lafarge and Holcim in 2015.

From here there’s one story that we included in our roundup for 2018, the formation of the Global Cement & Concrete Association (GCCA). Readers of the BBC News website would have spotted the GCCA’s head Benjamin Sporton popping up in a feature on cement industry carbon emissions. He’s not long been in the job but this is exactly the kind of advocacy the association should be doing on behalf of the industry.

As for the top news story for 2018, it’s not what we’d have chosen in a round-up, but it sums up the importance of cement to people’s lives. It’s a commodity and where people build things they need it. Normalise relations between bordering countries and cement will flow if it can. Now that’s a goodwill story to end the year.

Enjoy the Christmas and New Year break if you have one.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 2 January 2019