Displaying items by tag: Dangote Cement

For the last issue of Global Cement Weekly before the Christmas and New Year break we're following our tradition of reviewing some of the major industry news stories of the year. Remember this is just one view of the year's events. If you think we've missed anything important let us know via LinkedIn, Twitter or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Lafarge and Holcim merger
The year has been dominated by one story: the merger of the two largest European-based cement producers, Lafarge and Holcim. The implications are massive. At a stroke the new company can dispose of less profitable units, clear debts and benefit from new mega-economies of scale. As Europe emerges from the recession, LafargeHolcim will be ready. Worldwide it is a rebuff to the consolidating Chinese cement producers who are poised, if they wish, to emerge from China and dominate international markets. The process has appeared surprisingly smooth so far with considerable forward planning. This week the European Commission has approved the proposed merger.

Lafarge CEO Bruno Lafont described the deal as 'a merger of equals'. What he didn't say is that the merger will leave LafargeHolcim with no equal. However, one question remains. Once the merger is complete will the new company be profitable?

China heads abroad
State planners in Hebei Province revealed plans to move excess cement production capacity outside of China in their usual sparse style. The quiet tone of the announcement failed to match its intentions to move 30Mt of capacity abroad by 2023. It is the next step after becoming the world's biggest cement producer, capturing swathes of the equipment market and consolidating its many local producers. How Chinese cement producers will fare in the wider global market remains to be seen. Yet while its economy remains strong the gobbling up of European utilities by Chinese companies suggests that, if all else fails, money talks.

Coal for India
If you can't fire-up your kiln you can't make clinker. With Indian cement producers reporting falling profits in 2014 the squabbling over coal allocation in the country summed up some of the input cost and infrastructure problems facing the country's cement industry. The coal blocks are due to be auctioned off from January 2015. Meanwhile analysts predict that Indian cement demand is unlikely to grow until 2016.

Sub-Saharan scares and skirmishes
The creation of Lafarge Africa means that three producers are now in a skirmish in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lafarge, Dangote and PPC. All three companies are present in multiple countries and expanding fast. This week, for example, PPC announced proposed merger plans with AfriSam. Given the low cement consumption per capita in this region the benefits of getting in early are immense. Unfortunately, there are many speed bumps along this road to development. One is the on-going Ebola epidemic. Left unchecked it could cause untold economic damage.

ASEAN set to open up
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is set to drop import tariffs in 2015 as it establishes a common market. Already in preparation cement producers have started to change their strategies, thinking regionally instead of nationally. Holcim Philippines, for example, announced in February 2014 that it was considering delaying building a new plant as it analysed the situation. The region, including high-growth countries like Indonesia and Thailand, could see its cement industry go into overdrive. However, the benefits may not be uniform as countries like the Philippines may lose out.

The US, fracking and falling oil prices
Of the western economies recovering from the 2007 recession, the US cement industry has rebounded the fastest, due in part to fracking which has brought down the cost of energy. The Brent Crude price hit a low of US$60 per barrel this week and this has consequences for everybody in the cement industry as fuel procurement strategies adapt.

For starters, cement producers gain a fuel bill cut as the cost of fuels fall. Producers in Egypt who have been frenziedly converting kilns from gas to coal may suddenly find their margins improve. Low energy prices also take away financial motivation to co-process alternative fuels in cement kilns. Finally, what of the giant infrastructure projects in Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) like Saudi Arabia? Take away the petrodollars propping up these builds and cement demand may evaporate.

For more a more detailed look at trends in the cement industry check out the Global Cement Top 100 Report.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 7 January 2015. Enjoy the festive break!

It won't surprise anyone to know that cement sales have fallen in the west African countries that are suffering from the on-going Ebola outbreak. However the scale may yet be instructive for this and other crises that may affect the cement industry in the future. The local data that follows mostly comes from a report by the World Bank published in early October 2014 looking at short and medium term economic impacts, as well as Global Cement research conducted towards the Global Cement Directory 2015.

All three of the principal countries involved – Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea – have low gross domestic products (GDP). They do not have cement kilns but they do have grinding plants and cement import infrastructure run by both local and international firms. They also lack readily accessible limestone deposits. In the short term (in 2014) a health crisis is expected to hit manufacturing through transportation and market disruptions stemming from both direct health implications and behavioural responses.

Liberia's cement sales fell by 60% in the third quarter of 2014, a drop the World Bank attributed to causes other than the rainy season. Quarterly cement sales more than tripled in 2013 from around 10,000t to over 25,000t marking the commissioning of a new mill at the Liberia Cement Corporation (HeidelbergCement) grinding plant. Dangote also has an import terminal in the country and is building its own grinding plant. The drop in cement sales since June 2014 has nearly undone all this production growth.

Neighbouring Sierra Leone has seen a steady fall in weekly cement sales since June 2014. Similar to Liberia, it has a HeidelbergCement-run grinding plant with Dangote planning expansion soon. Guinea, which had about a sixth of the notified cases of Ebola in mid-October 2014, has seen its cement imports fall by 50% in the year so far compared to 2013.

Before readers become too depressed though, it should be considered that Nigeria has been declared Ebola free by the World Health Organisation after six weeks with no new cases. It may have been relatively expensive to contain Ebola through public health measures but the alternatives for the regional economies could have been worse. More cases are expected to arrive in Nigeria but the country has shown that Ebola can be stopped.

Immediate cement operators threatened by the epidemic include HeidelbergCement with its five grinding plants in west Africa. How an uncontrolled or high case Ebola epidemic affects Dangote's expansion plans in its 'backyard' will also be hard to predict. West Africa is the obvious place for the Nigerian cement giant to build itself up before it tackles other markets in sub-Saharan Africa that have stronger competition like South Africa's PPC. Take this market stability away and Dangote faces a direct economic threat to its growth beyond the humanitarian horror of the epidemic. What also has implications for the cement industry in Senegal, the second biggest cement producer in the region, where there are two integrated plants.

The World Bank report concludes that Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea could lose US$129m in GDP in a low case scenario or up to US$815m in a high case scenario. To give this some context, Sierra Leone's GDP was US$2.7bn in 2013. In a high case situation it could lose US$439m or an amount equivalent to 16% of its GDP in 2013. If and when the fight against Ebola turns, this still leaves a severe economic recession for the survivors in what is already one of the poorest countries in Africa. Cement, one of the indicators of a country's economic and industrial development, is intricately bound up in this.

Of the five African cement news stories in this edition of Global Cement Weekly, three concern the actions of Nigerian cement giant Dangote Cement. This week it has announced a new captive power plant in Nigeria and the fact that Sephaku Cement, which is owned by Dangote to the tune of 64%, is now in a position to produce cement from its Aganang plant in South Africa. These two items are fairly typical of the type of announcement that Dangote makes in the African market, and the high frequency with which it makes them. It is the third story, of course, which is unusual.

We have heard, for a couple of years now, that Dangote has designs on becoming a pan-African cement giant. Certainly it is the pre-eminent producer in west Africa, with its influence rapidly spreading to the east, north west and south of this vast continent. Few others, (but perhaps South Africa's PPC), can claim to have such influence and, unopposed, there seems no limit to Dangote's ambitions.

This week we heard just how bold those ambitions are. For the first time Africa's No. 1 cement producer has said that it wants to break out of Africa and enter new markets. No longer satisfied with operating at home, a company release has identified the Middle East and Latin America as potential hunting grounds, either for new capacity or acquisitions. The proposed list of LafargeHolcim cast-offs, which includes few assets in either region (LINK), will also have received significant attention in the Dangote boardroom.

The selection of the Middle East and Latin America, however, is not accidental. The Middle East is a high growth area and provides a platform for possible 'pincer-movement' expansion into more impenetrable markets in central Africa like Chad and (South) Sudan. The Middle East also means proximity to India. Dangote may also want to dampen the influence that Indian, Pakistani and Iranian exports have in the region. Potential tie-ups with Dangote's growing operations in east Africa are clear.

The selection of Latin America, on the face of it at least, is less obvious. There are numerous strong and growing local and regional producers. Not least of these is Colombia's Cementos Argos, which has increased its influence in the USA through strategic acquisitions. There are also numerous domestic large Brazilian producers but Dangote may feel like there is room for more to joint the party. Cade, the Brazilian competition authority, has certainly agreed that competition could be improved in Brazil following its recent investigations. Could Brazil be a prime target?

Wherever Dangote decides to play its first non-African card, it will be a major step for the company and African cement producers. How long until we see the first African-owned cement plant on another continent?

The creation of Lafarge Africa, the clearance of the Cemex West acquisition by Holcim in Germany and the sale of Lafarge's assets in Ecuador all hint at the scale of business that LafargeHolcim will command when it comes into existence. Despite the media saturation of coverage on the merger the implications in developing markets are still worthwhile exploring, especially in Latin American and Africa.

In sub-Saharan Africa, Lafarge is merging its cement companies in Nigeria and South Africa to create Lafarge Africa. Analysts Exotix have described the move as, 'the birth of a leading player on a continental scale'. Indeed, if Lafarge wanted to grow Lafarge Africa to encompass its many other African cement producing subsidiaries it could hold at least 17 integrated cement plants (including plants in north Africa) with a cement production capacity of at least 40Mt/yr in 10 countries and infrastructure in others. That puts it head-to-head with Dangote's plans to meet 40Mt/yr by the end of 2014 through its many expansion projects. Following these two market leaders would come South African-based cement producer PPC with its expansion plans around the continent.

Meanwhile across the Atlantic in Latin America the Lafarge-Holcim merger threatens Cemex. Unlike in Africa where Lafarge has a ubiquitous but disparate presence, Lafarge and Holcim's cement assets are more evenly scattered around the Caribbean, Central and South America. In terms of cement production capacity Cemex and Lafarge-Holcim will both have around 30Mt/yr, with Cemex just in front. The next biggest cement producers in Latin America will be Votorantim (present mainly in Brazil) with just over 20Mt/yr and Cementos Argos (Columbia) with about the same. This includes some new acquisitions in the United States for the growing Columbian producer. In Ecuador Lafarge and Holcim held over 50% of the market share, hence the sale by Lafarge of its assets to Union Andina de Cementos for US$553m.

Depending on how well the merger integrates the two companies, corals the various subsidiaries and implements strategic thinking the merger could just create business as usual with little disruption to the existing order. Yet in both continents the merger has the opportunity to shake up and reinvigorate the cement markets as existing players suddenly discover serious new competition and react accordingly.

Africa has a population of 1.1bn and it had a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$2320/capita in 2013. South America had a population of 359m in 2010 and a GDP of US$8929/capita. This compares to US$27,250/capita in Europe and US$54,152/capita in the US. The economic development potential for each continent is humongous. Post-merger, LafargeHolcim will be first or second in line for some of this potential in Latin America and Africa.

Holcim released its first quarter results for 2014 this week and benefits of a merger seemed clear: both sales and profit were down. Net sales fell by 5.4% to Euro3.35bn and net income fell by 57.5% to Euro65.6m. However, Chief Financial Officer Thomas Aebischer was upbeat on meeting the regulatory requirements of any merger and the prospect of divestment opportunities.

This week we have a guest contributor - Andy Gboka, an analyst at Exotix LLP, a London-based broker specialised in Frontier markets – writing about the impact in Africa from the Lafarge-Holcim merger:

No change in Sub-Saharan Africa cement markets

Looking at (1) the location and size of the assets that both groups operate across the region but also (2) the expansion projects recently announced, we do not anticipate any upheaval in the competitive landscape, at least in the medium term.

Potential reshuffle of African assets

We identify Nigeria and Morocco as the main countries where the two companies are likely to reorganise their operations post-deal.

After the market excitement Lafarge / Holcim's price gains have averaged 9% since the announcement versus +8% the same day (04/04/14). We think it timely to discuss, from a competition angle, the likely impact on sector dynamics in Africa.

Starting with Sub-Saharan Africa where Lafarge and Holcim have been present for decades, the two groups have grown their output capability over time to reach a combined ~20.7Mt/yr. Holcim is a much smaller cement producer through its ~2.6Mt/yr in Ivory Coast, Guinea and Nigeria, whereas the French manufacturer is a regional leader with ~18.1Mt/yr capacity across 10 different countries. North African exposure paints a similar picture, as the Swiss company's installed capacity is ~9.6Mt/yr versus ~21.6Mt/yr for Lafarge (including their respective shareholdings in Lafarge Cement Egypt).

Although we do not believe the proposed merger will significantly alter Africa's competitive environment, business reorganisation is likely in:

(1) Nigeria. LafargeHolcim would control more than ~70% of the United Cement Company of Nigeria Ltd (UNICEM, 2.5Mt/yr in Calabar) which, in our view, is a suitable context for minorities' buyout.

(2) Morocco. More than ~50% of the industry's production capacity is controlled by the two players, a situation that may lead to asset disposals after review by the local competition commission.

Beyond the corporate implications, this announcement also puts into perspective the multiples investors are willing to pay for companies operating in Africa. Indeed, for 2014/2015 financial year the enterprise multiple (enterprise value / earnings before depreciation and amortisation) and price-to-book ratio for the main stocks listed in Nigeria and Kenya average 10.3x and 2.9x respectively, vs. 8.4x and 1.3x for LafargeHolcim (Bloomberg). While demand growth prospects in the teen digits or margins above ~25% (especially in Nigeria) would support a premium for the former names, we think the extent of that premium is questionable.

The best illustration is Dangote Cement, whose market capitalisation stands at ~US$25bn for total capacity estimated at 50 – 55Mt/yr by the 2016 financial year, relatively high when compared to the expected ~US$55bn market capitalisation for LafargeHolcim with (1) 427Mt/yr cement capacity globally and (2) ~60% of its revenue from emerging markets. This underpins our cautious stance on the sector.

Source: Andy Gboka, analyst at Exotix LLP (London-Based broker specialised in Frontier markets).

Andy Gboka will be speaking at the forthcoming Global CemTrader Conference, taking place in London on 2 -3 June 2014.

South Africa: The board of directors of Sephaku Holdings have announced that Johannes Wilhelm Wessels died on 23 March 2014. Wessels was an alternate director to Rudolph de Bruin since 2007 on the Sephaku Holdings board.

Wessels originally provided legal counsel on the emerging business structure in 2005 and he later joined Sephaku Holdings as Head of Corporate Affairs holding key responsibility for group legal counsel, transaction structuring advice and contractual negotiations. He led the process of the group's unbundling strategy and worked on the legal and tax aspects of the process. Wessels helped reposition the company from a multiple mineral exploration company to a construction and building materials focused company.

"Wes was pivotal in negotiating the relationship agreement with Dangote Industries PLC to establish Sephaku Holdings' partnership in South Africa's newest cement producer since 1934, Sephaku Cement. At the time of his untimely death Wes was also serving as a director of the Sephaku Cement board. We will always remember him for his astuteness, legal savvy, business acumen and spontaneous sense of humour," said Chief Executive Officer, Lelau Mohuba.

Dangote Cement let everybody know this week that it is now producing 52.5MPa grade cement in Nigeria. The move was a response to building pressure from professional and civil groups in the country which have reacted in recent months to the high incidence of building collapses in the country. With the 42.5MPa grade looking likely to become the new legal standard, Dangote's adoption of an even higher standard looks like canny marketing.

The background to this tussle lies in the spate of building collapses that have plagued Nigeria in recent years. A widely cited paper in the Global Journal of Researches in Engineering from 2010 reported at least 26 incidents in Nigeria between 1975 to 1995 with 226 fatalities. Later figures from 2004 to 2006 reported at least 10 incidents with 243 fatalities, a significantly higher prevalence than in the earlier period. The paper recommended adopting standards for building materials such as cement among other measures. Since the publication of this paper news reports have been hard to collate. Commentators placed the toll at 15 collapses with 30 fatalities for the first eight months of 2013 alone.

The Standards Organisation of Nigeria (SON) reacted to the latest outcry over building collapses by saying that they were caused by poor application, such as a using the wrong quality of cement for a particular task, not poor standards. According to the SON, 32.5MPa grade cement is recommended for activities such as plastering, flooring, block moulding, culvert making and building simple domestic houses. 42.5MPa grade is designed for the construction of tall buildings, bridges and load bearing columns.

Adopting a national standard of 42.5MPa grade is intended to stop misuse of lower grade cement being used for the wrong applications. One example commentators have mentioned is how to help illiterate builders select the right kind of cement for a given task. Choosing an overall higher standard is one solution to this problem. Education is another.

One fact that has emerged from the debate is that, according to Dangote Chief Executive Officer DVG Edwin, the SON imposed 42.5MPa grade as the minimum for imports before most imports were stopped in late 2012. Edwin used this as an argument for the SON enforcing the same standard for domestic cement production. Anything that can cut the number of building collapses can only be a good thing.

Both Dangote Cement and PPC have reminded the world about their development plans for sub-Saharan Africa. In the wake of PPC's yearly results on 19 November 2013 came a spotlight on the South Africa-based cement producer's international ambitions. Not to be outdone, Nigeria's Dangote Cement then put out a press release detailing all of its big development projects.

Dangote and PPC are set to go into direct competition when the Dangote subsidiary, Sephakhu Cement, opens its 3Mt/yr integrated cement plant at Aganang, North West province in early 2014. It will be the first time the Nigerian cement giant will be producing cement in the same country as its competitor in sub-Saharan Africa, PPC. The encounter will set the tone for the producers' next clash when they both open cement plants in Ethiopia in 2015.

Both the African cement producers are targeting a swathe of south to east sub-Saharan Africa from South African to Ethiopia. PPC, based in South Africa, has a presence in neighbouring Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. It has bought stakes in cement producers in Rwanda, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo and has new cement plants on the way in Ethiopia, Rwanda, Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In contrast to PPC's more 'organic' growth strategy from an established base, Dangote, with its existing presence in west Africa is about to enter this region. It has new projects planned in Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia, as well as in Ethiopia and South Africa.

To compare the financing behind each company's expansion, Dangote reported that it had committed US$884m for acquisitions in 2012. PPC intends to spend US$276m on capital expenditure in its 2014 financial year. If these figures from financial reports are correct, Dangote is spending three times as much as PPC on expansion. Dangote may have more money for expansion but PPC has long-standing presences in the region or has recently acquired them.

Dangote reported an 18% rise year-on-year in turnover to US$1.8bn in 2012. The same year its sales volumes increased to 10.4Mt from 8.66Mt in 2012. The company's installed cement production capacity was reported as 19.25Mt from three plants in Nigeria. In comparison, PPC reported a 13% rise in revenue to US$820m for its financial year to the end of September 2013. No exact cement productions figures were released but PPC said that cement sales increased by 7% in the period.

How Dangote and PPC spar in South Africa remains to be seen but one area where they may agree will be on imports. In its final results for 2013, PPC again highlighted the continuing threat of imports from Pakistan, mainly via Durban. Imports comprised 7.6% of national demand as of June 2013. In Nigeria in 2012 Dangote led successfully a campaign to cut foreign imports. Irrespective of increasing demand for cement, adding Dangote to the anti-cement import lobby in South Africa might well make space for a new producer.

In the global cement news this week, we see that PPC (the former Pretoria Portland Cement), a large-scale domestic player in the South African cement industry, has taken it upon itself to provide association-like services to cement and concrete consumers in the country. PPC says that it felt obliged to supply information on things like quantity analysis, setting advice and product testing in the place of the now-defunct Cement and Concrete Institute (CCI).

The CCI, lambasted by PPC and other cement producers for years, was accused in April 2013 by PPC of not providing the kind of advice and services that cement producers should expect from an association. PPC, Lafarge and AfriSam all pulled funding and the CCI collapsed.

If the CCI had simply ceased to exist, PPC's new stance, putting its own cash into industry-wide assistance, might be seen as laudable. However, the CCI has been re-born as the Concrete Institute (CI), an organisation that is, by its own admission, no longer on the lookout for the interests of the whole industry. The CI is largely backed by Sephaku Cement, itself majority owned by the Nigerian cement juggernaut Dangote Cement, making PPC's stance suddenly look like one of self-preservation. Dangote is making rapid progress in the sub-Saharan cement industry and firms like PPC cannot afford to let it sweep aside the status-quo in South Africa.

The speed and scale of Dangote's rise, covered previously in this column, is huge. Nigeria's largest company now has interests in Senegal, Zambia, Tanzania, Congo, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast and Liberia as well as Nigeria and South Africa. Not a month goes by without the announcement of another upgrade, plant or project. Dangote has a fantastic position in its domestic market that has enabled these new projects to be funded.

By contrast PPC is battling a stale construction market in South Africa. South African cement sales fell by 3.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2012. To counteract this, PPC has committed to expand outside of South Africa to the tune of 40% of total production by the start of 2016. It announced in early 2013 that production is on track to come online in Rwanda, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo by the fourth quarter of 2015. Zimbabwe is expected to follow suit by the middle of 2016. It already has interests in Botswana and Mozambique.

With two of its largest home-grown cement producers both expanding rapidly outside of their domestic markets, and a relative lack of interest from the big four multinationals, the sub-Saharan cement market is set for big changes in the medium to long term. PPC and Dangote are expanding towards each other and already share many markets. Dangote has expanded more rapidly and is moving towards exports from Nigeria. PPC is catching up by taking shares in strategically-placed plants. Is sub-Sahara headed for a showdown...? Whatever happens, the future of this rapidly-growing market will certainly be interesting.

If you have any spare cement this week – send it to Ghana!

First, HeidelbergCement announced plans for a new cement mill on the coast at Takoradi. Then, Dangote officially started to export cement to the west African nation.

HeidelbergCement's strategy in the region is telling because it is starting to head inland. The press release on Ghana indicated that the German-based cement producer intends to expand its capacity to 4.4Mt/yr by late 2014. This follows a recent announcement that HeidelbergCement are building their first grinding plant in Burkina Faso, directly north of Ghana. Previously the producer imported cement there. Now it intends to build a US$50m plant with a production capacity of 0.65Mt/yr.

Since most of HeidelbergCement's existing infrastructure in the region is based on the coast, building a plant in a landlocked nation - Burkina Faso - is a huge vote of investor confidence in west Africa. "In particular the countries of sub-Saharan Africa have a very high growth potential due to their early stage of industrialisation and rich natural resources," said Dr Bernd Scheifele, chairman of the managing board of HeidelbergCement in the statement accompanying the Ghana expansion.

The move also provides a clue as to how competitive the cement market is becoming in territories near the coast in Africa. Currently HeidelbergCement holds a mostly coastal presence in western Africa, in Benin, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Togo. It has four cement plants and nine grinding plants. Its cement business made a year-on-year increase in revenue of 12% to Euro612m in 2012.

Roughly calculated, HeidelbergCement is paying US$77/t in Burkina Faso compared to US$38/t in Ghana to build its new production capacity. HeidelbergCement must be paying double for a reason.

Meanwhile, Dangote Cement announced on the same day (11 March 2013) that a fleet of cement trucks were heading to Ghana. Already the Nigerian cement producer holds a cement terminal with a bagging capacity of 1.5Mt/yr in the country. Dangote intends to start exporting 5000t/week of cement. Its eventual target is 5000t/day when the logistics are in place, or up to 1.8Mt/yr. Not a bad start in unloading Dangote's self-declared overcapacity of 20Mt/yr in Nigeria upon the neighbouring nations in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).