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The Chinese cement sector had a tough time in 2022. This was confirmed this week as the large domestic cement producers released their financial results. Revenue was down, profits fell and cement sales volumes tumbled. The key causes included the continuation of the country’s zero-coronavirus policy, the declining real estate market and rising input costs for raw materials such as coal. Demand for cement withered and so did the fortunes of the cement companies.

Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2022. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that cement output fell by 9.8% year-on-year to 2.13Bnt in 2022 from 2.36Bnt in 2021. The greater decrease was in the first half of the year rather than the second. The China Cement Association (CCA) said that this was nearly the lowest output in the last decade and the largest decline since 1969 ! The National Bureau of Statistics of China also pointed out in a release that, despite investment in fixed assets increasing by around 5% in 2022 and national infrastructure spending growing by 9%, real estate development investment dropped by 10% to US$1.46Tn.

Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

The cement producers warned in their forecasts that the results for 2022 were going to be rough and so it came to pass. China National Building Material (CNBM)’s revenue fell by 16% year-on-year to US$33.4bn in 2022 and Anhui Conch’s sales fell by 21% to US$19.2bn in 2022. Although, Tangshang Jidong Cement and Huaxin Cement reported declines of income or revenue in single digits. Profits halved for all of the companies covered here. Various combinations of the reasons covered above were cited for the situation.

What is more interesting are the responses some of the producers are making and what has gone well. CNBM, for example, is pinning its hopes on better staggered peak production and infrastructure projects. Anhui Conch, meanwhile, appears to have been diversifying its business by increasing both its concrete and solar power production capacity significantly in 2022. It was also announced that it plans to spend US$2.81bn on capital expenditure projects in 2023. China Resources Cement (CRC) said it had optimised its presence in South China through selected acquisition and divestments. Huaxin Cement has continued its focus on overseas markets with its share of operating revenue originating from outside China rising to 13% of the group’s total in 2022 compared to 8% in 2021. It also mentioned a number of unnamed projects around the world steadily drawing nearer to action. Sure enough, the group announced earlier in March 2023 that it was buying a majority stake in Oman Cement.

As for 2023, the CCA forecast in January 2023 that cement demand would be flat or slightly down. However, at the same time, provincial changes to the real estate market are expected to improve market conditions and infrastructure development will further drive demand for cement. The CCA identified that the cement sector’s production overcapacity could become an issue with lower demand. In 2022 the national clinker production utilisation rate was 65%, a fall of 10% from that in 2021. It also pointed out that peak-staggered production had actually helped cement producers generally to cope with smaller declines in profits compared to less well regulated industries.

Problems such as the zero-coronavirus policy, the real estate market and rising raw material costs have made the country’s production overcapacity issue worse. Changes are being made such as the national abandonment of the coronavirus lockdowns in late 2022, and, as mentioned above, the real estate market is being modified. In addition to this, various environmental changes are on the way, as the government works towards its sustainability goals. The country remains the largest cement producer in the world. Yet the message here is that we should expect more of the same for the cement sector in China in 2023.

Philippines: Holcim Philippines recorded sales of US$490m during 2022, down by 1% year-on-year from US$499m. Sales rose by 9% year-on-year to US$266m during the second half of the year, 53% of the full-year figure. Throughout the year, the producer increased its alternative fuel (AF) substitution rate by 20% year-on-year and processed 1Mt of waste from industrial partners and local government bodies. Digitisation initiatives and alternative raw materials substitution helped the producer to reduce its specific CO₂ emissions by 7%. The Business Mirror newspaper has reported that the year also brought 'surging' energy and fuel costs for the producer.

President and CEO Horia Adrian said "In the face of extraordinary challenges, our company and people displayed tremendous resilience that enabled us to deliver positive financial performance and contribute to building progress in the country. Alongside a strong sales rebound in the second half and expansion of our customer base, we accelerated the decarbonisation of our operations."

Portugal: Setúbal District Council has submitted its opinion in the on-going consultation process over Secil's plans to expand its Arrábida quarry in Arrábida National Park. The quarry serves Secil's Outão cement plant. The Jornal de Negócios newspaper has reported that Secil has applied to expand the quarry up to a total area of 117 hectares, and says that the newly expanded quarry would have less impact on the landscape and environment than it currently does.

Setúbal District Council acknowledged Secil's 'clear effort' in its rehabilitation of exhausted sections of the Arrábida quarry, as well as the company's importance to the regional and national economy. Nonetheless, it concluded that the proposed expansion 'is not compatible with the territorial management instruments in force, which are currently under revision.'

Mexico: President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has accused the US government of funding environmentalists' challenges to the government's planned Tren Maya tourist railway project. AP News has reported that López Obrador has declared the project a matter of national security.

Cemex is currently embroiled in a dispute with Vulcan Materials subsidiary Sac-Tun over use of the latter's Punta Venado terminal in Quintana Roo. The terminal sits along the planned route of the Tren Maya line. The Mexican State Prosecutor's Office supported Cemex's re-entry into the terminal on 14 March 2023. The government previously rejected Sac-Tun's application to renew its quarrying licence for its quarry at the site of the terminal.

For more on this story, read our Global Cement Weekly analysis.

EU: Cembureau, the European cement sector association, has lobbied the EU in support of a draft act for the setting of CO₂ storage capacity quotas for member states. It called for the simplification and acceleration of permitting procedures for storage sites. It also encouraged policymakers to strengthen the focus on CO₂ transport networks, ensuring fair access conditions for cement plants.

Cembureau said "Whilst a mix of technologies are needed to decarbonise cement production, carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) is particularly critical, as our sector faces unavoidable process emissions. A large number of CCUS pilot and demonstration projects have been launched by cement companies across Europe, with the first of them becoming operational as early as 2024. The pipeline of investments is particularly strong – for instance, the latest ETS Innovation Fund call awarded over Euro500m three cement CCUS projects."

Germany: Solid UNIT Germany, the German construction sector association, has launched its climate advisory board. The board will advise on and jointly instigate initiatives together with the Solid UNIT Germany management board. Its membership comprises representatives from the German Sustainable Building Council (DGNB), the Institute for Sustainable Construction in Germany (ARGE) and the Federal Chamber of Architects, along with members of parliament.

Solid UNIT Germany managing director Thomas Zawalski said "To cope with the Herculean task ahead of us, it is important to bundle experience. Faster CO₂ reduction in the building sector is only possible through joint action by all stakeholders."

A dispute between Cemex and Vulcan Materials over the use of a terminal in Quintana Roo state heated up this week as the two companies publicly argued over the situation. US-based Vulcan Materials went to the press to say that the Mexican police had forced entry into the facility south of Cancun, run by its subsidiary Calica, with orders to allow a Cemex ship to discharge cement. Vulcan denied that the authorities had any legal basis for the action and said that it was an illegal occupation. Cemex then responded with a press release explaining that the two companies had held a previous contractual relationship for joint-usage of the terminal until the agreement broke down in late 2022. It says it was granted an injunction by a local court to continue using the terminal while legal proceedings carry on.

The disagreement over the use of the Punta Venado terminal dates back to at least 2018 when Vulcan initiated a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) arbitration claim over alleged planning and environmental issues in relation to a nearby quarry. Dialogue continued, but Calica’s operations in the area were shut down by the government in May 2022. Subsequently, Vulcan’s total volumes of shipped aggregates fell by 6% year-on-year to 54Mt in the fourth quarter of 2022, partly due to the closure.

Unfortunately, the argument has become increasingly politicised with Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador criticising Vulcan for its environmental record and US senators using the Vulcan case as an alleged example of Mexico treating US companies unfairly. Some media commentators have also noted that the Mexican government is promoting a number of large-scale infrastructure schemes in the region, including the Tren Maya project, a new 1500km train line around the Yucatan peninsula, which would link tourist towns such as Cancún with historical sites like Palenque.

Graph 1: Grey cement production in Mexico, 2018 - 2022. Source: National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).

Data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) shows that rolling annual cement production in Mexico peaked at around 43Mt in late 2018 before falling to 39Mt in mid-2020. It later recovered to a peak of just under 46Mt in mid-2021. It has since dropped a little to mid-2022 and then started to trend upwards again. The nominal cement production capacity in Mexico is 60Mt/yr according to the Global Cement Directory 2023. Yet, the actual production capacity has been reported in local press as being 42Mt/yr, lower than the annual cement production of 43.9Mt in 2022. In February 2023 it was reported that the Mexican government was taking steps to 'implement import facilities' to support more cement being imported. This was due to shortages in certain states particular in the south-west of the country.

Cemex’s net sales in Mexico grew by 11% to US$3.84bn in 2022 and this was attributed partly to tourism-related construction in ‘the peninsulas.’ Holcim noted ‘market softness’ for cement in the country but reported growth for concrete due to infrastructure projects such as the Tren Maya. Cemento Moctezuma’s net sales rose by 2.6% to US$878m. Despite rising sales, both Cemex and Cemento Moctezuma reported falling earnings in 2022.

The dispute between Cemex and Vulcan Materials overlaps with wider trends on how and where the Mexican cement market is developing following a lull in the late 2010s. Production is growing in certain parts of the country, particularly in the Yucatan peninsula due to various infrastructure projects and tourism-related demand. However, the overall economic environment appears to have decreased earnings for some producers. However Cemex said that this was starting to correct itself in late 2022, as prices caught up with inflation. Portraying the Cemex - Vulcan situation in nationalistic terms is unhelpful, especially since Cemex made more money in the US than Mexico in 2022! However, this may be yet another example of more isolationist economic policies along the same lines as the US Inflation Reduction Act.

Mexico: Cemex says that it is within its rights to have continued using the Punta Venado terminal in Quintana Roo beyond the expiry of its contract with owner Sac-Tun at the end of 2022. Cemex says that it obtained an injunction to continue using the facilities after it began to have difficulty accessing them in late 2022. It subsequently obtained a contempt of court order against Sac-Tun when it tried to prevent it from accessing the terminal.

The Mexican State Prosecutor's Office supported Cemex's re-entry into the Punta Venado terminal on 14 March 2023.

Bolivia: Empresa Publica Productiva Cementos de Bolivia (ECEBOL) now expects to commission its upcoming 1.3Mt/yr Potosí cement plant in June 2023. It would then begin selling bagged cement from November 2023 onwards. The La Razón newspaper has reported that ECEBOL has recorded 'physical progress' on the project of 92%, and executed US$264m-worth (85%) of a total planned investment of US$311m.

ECEBOL ran successful empty tests on installed equipment earlier in March 2023. Government representatives and local stakeholders will visit the plant on 30 March 2023.

Spain: The Climate Action Ministry of the Catalonian government has granted an environmental authorisation to Holcim España's 0.9Mt/yr Montcada i Reixac cement plant. The authorisation includes an environmental impact statement for the plant's activities. The Expansión newspaper has reported that the documentation brings the Montcada i Reixac cement plant in line with court rulings, which had found in favour of the Montcada i Reixac city council in ruling that the plant did not have the proper certification to continue operations.

Holcim España employs 327 people at the cement plant, which serves the market in and around Barcelona.