Displaying items by tag: Hungary

The mountainous eastern shore of the Adriatic Sea and its hinterlands in Europe’s Balkan Peninsula have one of the world’s highest densities of countries: six, across a broad equilateral triangle of 212,000km². All six states – Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia – are historically characterised by political non-alignment, carrying over from the Cold War period, and all the more notable for the presence of the EU to the north (Croatia, Hungary and Romania) and east (Bulgaria and Greece).

A nine-plant, 9Mt/yr local cement sector serves the 16.8m-strong population of the unconsolidated ‘bloc.’ Albania has 2.8Mt/yr (31%), Serbia 2.7Mt/yr (30%), Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.6Mt/yr (18%), North Macedonia 1.4Mt/yr (15%) and Kosovo 500,000t/yr (6%), while Montenegro has no cement capacity – for now. Altogether, this gives this quarter of South East Europe a capacity per capita of 539kg/yr. The industry consists entirely of companies based outside of the region. Albania’s two plants are Lebanese and Greek-owned (by Seament Holding and Titan Cement Group respectively). Titan Cement Group also controls single-plant Kosovo and North Macedonia, and competes in the Serbian cement industry alongside larger and smaller plants belonging to Switzerland-based Holcim and Ireland-based CRH, respectively. Lastly, Bosnia & Herzegovina’s capacity is shared evenly between Germany-based Heidelberg Materials and Hungary-based Talentis International Construction, with one plant each.

Lafarge Srbija, Holcim's subsidiary in Serbia, announced plans for its second plant in the country, at Ratari in Belgrade, last week. No capacity has yet emerged, but the plant will cost €110m, making something in the region of the country’s existing 0.6 – 1.2Mt/yr plants seem likely. This would give Serbia over a third of total capacity in the Central Balkans and twice the number of plants of any other country there, expanding its per-capita capacity by 22 – 44%, from a regionally low 408kg/yr to 500 – 590kg/yr.

In announcing the upcoming Ratari cement plant, Lafarge Srbija laid emphasis on its sustainability. The plant will use 1Mt/yr of ash from the adjacent Nikola Tesla B thermal power plant as a raw material in its cement production. In this way, it will help to clear the Nikola Tesla B plant’s 1600 hectare ash dumps, from which only 180,000t of ash was harvested in 2023. Circularity has been front and centre of Holcim’s discussions of its growth in Serbia for some time. When Lafarge Srbija acquired aggregates producer Teko Mining Serbia in 2022, the group indicated that the business would play a part in its development of construction and demolition materials (CDM)-based cement and concrete.

Holcim’s Strategy 2025 growth plan entails bolt-on acquisitions in ‘mature markets,’ backed by strategic divestments elsewhere. Other companies have been more explicit about a realignment towards metropolitan markets, above all in North America, at a time when they are also diversifying away from cement and into other materials. Just why a leading producer should look to build cement capacity in Serbia warrants investigation.

Serbia is the only Central Balkan member of Cembureau, the European cement association. In a European market report for 2022, the association attributed to it the continent’s fastest declining cement consumption (jointly with Slovakia), down by 11% year-on-year. Like the rest of Europe, Serbia is also gradually shrinking, its population dwindling by 0.7% year-on-year to 6.62m in 2023, which limits hopes for a longer-term recovery. Serbia remains the largest country in the Central Balkans, with 39% of the total regional population.

Several factors have compounded Serbia’s difficulties as a cement-producing country. Firstly, like the Nikola Tesla B thermal power plant, its kilns run on coal. 50% of this coal originated in Russia and Ukraine in 2021, causing the entire operation to become ‘imperilled’ after the former’s brutal invasion of the latter in February 2022, according to the Serbian Cement Industry Association. In planning terms, this was a case of putting half one’s eggs in two baskets – and dropping them both.

Secondly, Serbia’s choice of export markets is mainly confined to either the EU or global markets via the River Danube, Black Sea and Mediterranean. Either way, it is in competition with a cement exporting giant: Türkiye. Serbia sold €19.7m-worth of cement in the EU in 2023, up by 63% over the three-year period since 2020 – 31% behind Türkiye’s €28.8m (more than double its 2020 figure).¹ One other Central Balkan country had a greater reliance on the EU market: Bosnia & Herzegovina. It exported €48.4m-worth of cement there, quadruple its 2020 figure and behind only China (€133m) and the UK (€54.7) in cement exports to the bloc by value.

Bosnia & Herzegovina’s cement industry underwent a different permutation at the start of 2024: an acquisition, replacing one EU-based player with another. Lukavac Cement, which operates the 800,000t/yr Lukavac cement plant in Tuzla, changed hands from Austria-based building materials producer Asamer Baustoffe to Hungary-based property developer Talentis International Construction. Talentis International Construction belongs to one of Hungary’s major family-owned conglomerates, Mészáros Csoport.

Besides Central Europe, Balkan countries have found a ready source of investments in the past decade in China. In construction alone, Chinese investments total €13.2bn in Serbia, €2.4bn in Bosnia & Herzegovina, €915m in Montenegro and €650m in North Macedonia.² This can be a booster shot to all-important domestic cement markets, but has some risks. Montenegro previously faced bankruptcy after Export-Import Bank of China began to call in an €847m loan for construction of the still upcoming A1 motorway in the country’s Northern Region. This did not put off the Montenegrin government from signing a new memorandum of understanding (MoU) with China-based Shandong Foreign Economic and Technical Cooperation and Shandong Luqiao Group for construction of a new €54m coast road in the Coastal Region in mid-2023.

In Montenegro, UK-based private equity firm Chayton Capital is currently funding a feasibility study for a partly state-owned cement plant and building materials complex at the Pljevlja energy hub in the Northern Region. Along with an upgrade to the existing Pljevlja coal-fired power plant, the project will cost €700m.

In 2026, EU member states will begin to partly tax third-country imports of cement and other products against their specific CO₂ emissions, progressing to the implementation of a 100% Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by 2034. Montenegro led the Central Balkans’ preparations for the EU’s CBAM roll-out with the introduction of its own emissions trading system in early 2021. Bosnia & Herzegovina will follow its example by 2026, but other countries in the region have struggled to conceive of the arrangement except as part of future EU accession agreements.

Based on the average specific CO₂ emissions of cement produced in the EU, the World Bank has forecast that exporters to the bloc will be disadvantaged if their own specific emissions exceed 5.52kg CO₂eq/€.³ By contrast, any figure below this ought to offer an increased competitive edge. Albanian cement has average emissions of 4.71kg CO₂eq/€, 15% below ‘biting point’ and 13% below Türkiye’s 5.39CO₂eq/€. Albania’s government consolidated its anticipated gains by quintupling the coal tax for 2024 to €0.15/kg. The figure is based on the International Monetary Fund’s recommended minimum CO₂ emissions tax of €55.80/t, 21% shy of the current EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) credit price of €70.49/t.⁴

The Central Balkans is a region of apparently slow markets and industry growth regardless – to 11 cement plants, following the completion of current and upcoming projects. A recurrent theme of capital expenditure investments and the way investors talk about them may help to explain this: sustainability. Looking at the mix of technologies in the current nine plants, these include wet kilns and fuels lines built for conventional fossil fuels. This is not to presume that any given plant might not be happy with its existing equipment as is. Nonetheless, the overall picture is of a set of veteran plants with scope to benefit from the kind of investments which all four global cement producers active in the region are already carrying out elsewhere in Europe. Such plans may already be in motion. In late 2023, Titan Cement Group’s North Macedonian subsidiary Cementarnica Usje secured shareholder approval to take two new loans of up to €27m combined.

As the latest news from Serbia showed, taking care of existing plants does not preclude also building new ones. The cement industry of the Central Balkans is finding its position in the new reduced-CO₂ global cement trade – one in which old and new work together.

References

1. Trend Economy, ‘European Union – Imports and Exports – Articles of cement,’ 28 January 2024, https://trendeconomy.com/data/h2/EuropeanUnion/6810#

2. American Enterprise Institute, 'China Global Investment Tracker,' 3 February 2024 https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/

3. World Bank Group, ‘Relative CBAM Exposure Index,’ 15 June 2023, https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/interactive/2023/06/15/relative-cbam-exposure-index

4. Ember, 'Carbon Price Tracker,' 26 August 2024, https://ember-climate.org/data/data-tools/carbon-price-viewer/

The Hungarian government recently enacted Emergency Decree 320/2023, taxing all CO₂ emissions from the country’s 40 or so largest industrial enterprises. The government used emergency powers to set up a new taxation scheme, which undercuts existing free allowances under the EU emissions trading scheme (ETS). The scheme additionally penalises the trade in ETS credits. Cement producers announced that the new regulations will make it impossible for them to keep operating.¹

With regard to Hungary’s six active cement plants, the scheme comprises:

1 – A Euro20/t tax on CO₂ emissions, effective retroactively from 1 January 2023, payable by any large enterprise that uses EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) free allowances to cover the majority of its CO₂ emissions. Plants that decrease their production, or that carry on non-CO₂-emitting activities at over 10% of their operations, will pay a higher rate of Euro40/t of CO₂.

2 – A 10% transaction fee for the sale of free allocations under the EU ETS, payable to the Hungarian Climate Protection Authority.

Less than three years ahead of full implementation of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), the Hungarian government has seemingly moved unilaterally against cement production – this in a country surrounded by seven other cement-producing countries. Multiple foreign cement producers connected to the major market of Budapest by rail, river and road will be watching developments with interest. These include CRH, which, besides two smaller plants inside Hungary, operates the 800,000t/yr Cementáreň Turňa nad Bodvou plant, immediately over the border in Slovakia.

This comes at a time when the domestic cement industry is facing historically high costs and low demand, with a 30% year-on-year decline in construction activity in July 2023, following double-digit inflation throughout 2022 and the first half of 2023.

Catastrophising may be a common symptom of environmental regulation in industry associations, but one can understand on this occasion. The Hungarian cement and lime industry association, CeMBeton, backed its members’ gloomy announcement about their future with an estimate for extra annual taxes of ‘several billion forints’ (1bn forint = US$2.84m), in a statement following the decree. Assuming annual CO₂ emissions of 565kg/t across its 5.4Mt/yr cement capacity, the sector might expect to pay US$61m/yr in CO₂ rates alone.^{2, 3} According to analyst ClearBlue, the government will raise additional tax revenues worth US$278m/yr across all of the 40 aforementioned heavy emitters in Hungary.⁴

It may seem surprising that CeMBeton did not even draw up a projected tax bill during consultations over the new tax scheme – but, in fact, no such consultations took place. In its most recent statement, the association said “We do not know the government’s intentions.” Outside of official releases, Hungary’s cement producers have not always been so reserved about the government’s perceived aim.

Global Cement reported in April 2023 that the Hungarian government was allegedly interfering in the cement sector to make producers sell up – as per accusations by an anonymous industry executive.⁵ There is arguably a course of action on the government’s part which, more or less, appears consistent with this aim:

October 2020 – The Hungarian Competition Authority (GVH) starts competition supervision proceedings against CRH, Duna-Dráva Cement and Lafarge Cement Magyarország.

July 2021 – Emergency Decree 2021/404 imposes a 90% tax on producers’ ‘excess’ profits, based on threshold cement sales revenues of Euro56/t. Additionally, producers must report their exports.

September 2021 – GVH finds insufficient evidence to support the initiation of competition supervisory proceedings in the cement industry.

January 2023 – (Retroactive) entry into force of CO₂ emissions tax.

May 2023 – The government of Hungary reportedly initiates negotiations to acquire Duna Dráva Cement and Holcim Magyarország, according to the Hungarian builders’ association, National Professional Association of Construction Contractors (ÉVOSZ). Duna Dráva Cement owners Heidelberg Materials and Schwenk Zement state that they have entered into no such negotiations, while Holcim declines to comment.

July 2023 – The Act on Hungarian Architecture lets the government dictate producers' volumes and prices and require them to supply cement to National Building Materials Stores (a proposed state-owned construction materials retail monopoly).⁶ Additionally, the government gains a right of first refusal over the divestment of any asset by the cement industry’s foreign owners.

20 July 2023 – The government enacts Emergency Decree 320/2023. ETS transaction fees enter into force.

The government can now expect a legal challenge to its latest move. CeMBeton’s first ally may be the font of all emissions legislation – the EU itself. Within the EU ETS framework, tax rates are down to member states to determine. However, the introduction of a transaction fee may constitute an illegal restriction to free allowances, OPIS News has reported. The association has also indicated its readiness to mount a constitutional challenge, specifically with regard to the legislative retrofit involved in the CO₂ emissions tax. The Fundamental Law of Hungary does not generally permit legislation to apply retroactively, though how courts will balance this consideration against the rights of the government is untested.

The government amended the constitution to provide for new emergency powers, and subsequently adopted them in May 2022, in response to the ‘state of danger’ created by Russia’s war in Ukraine – though its actions on the international stage suggest careful neutrality, if not ambivalence. At home, the war has brought a consolidation of the government’s control over various areas of life, including the economy, according to Human Rights Watch.⁷

Climate protestors around the world might be glad to see governments wield emergency powers against their own heavy industries. In Hungary, however, the wider sustainability goals are not yet clear with regard to a policy that seems, at least partly, politically motivated.

References

1. CeMBeton, Sajtónyilatkozat, 21 August 2023, https://www.cembeton.hu/hirlevel/2023-08-21/202308-mozgalmas-osz-ele-nezunk/116/sajtonyilatkozat/668

2. Heidelberg Materials, ‘Energy and climate protection,’ 2022, https://www.heidelbergmaterials.com/en/energy-and-climate-protection

3. Global Cement, Global Cement Directory 2023, https://www.globalcement.com/directory

4. OPIS News, ‘Hungary's New Carbon Tax Unlikely to Set EU Precedent, Say Analysts,’ 16 August 2023

5. Global Cement, 'Update on Hungary,' April 2023, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/15572-update-on-hungary-april-2023#:~:text=Heidelberg%20Materials'%20subsidiary%20Duna%2DDr%C3%A1va,the%20country's%20active%20national%20capacity.

6. Daily News Hungary, ‘Hungarian government’s new nationalising plan could violate EU law,’ 27 February 2023, https://dailynewshungary.com/hungarian-govts-new-nationalizing-plan-could-violate-eu-law/

7. Human Rights Watch, ‘Hungary’s New 'State of Danger',’ 8 June 2022, https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/06/08/hungarys-new-state-danger

Hungary: The Hungarian National Professional Association of Construction Contractors (ÉVOSZ) has claimed that the government of Hungary has initiated negotiations to acquire Duna Dráva Cement and Holcim Magyarország. 24.hu News has reported that the construction industry is facing on-going cement supply issues due to a purported decline in domestic production. ÉVOSZ said that its members’ reliance on imports of cement has risen to 60% from 40%.

Duna Dráva Cement clarified that its joint owners, Germany-based Heidelberg Materials and Schwenk Zement, are ‘committed to their investment in Hungary and are not negotiating its sale.’

Meanwhile, Switzerland-based Holcim said "We are not in a position to comment on the news that the Hungarian state is negotiating with domestic cement producers and/or their foreign owners for the purpose of acquiring shares."

Heidelberg Materials’ reaction to changes in the law in Hungary received attention this week in the German press. The government introduced its Act on Hungarian Architecture in March 2023 that will enable it to set production levels and prices upon foreign-owned cement producers when the new legislation takes force in July 2023. An unnamed executive at the Germany-based Heidelberg Materials told Der Spiegel that, "These regulations represent a complete violation of all rules of the European single market.” They added that the Hungarian government appeared to be trying to force the producer to sell up. The report further alleges that the owners of Duna-Dráva Cement, Heidelberg Materials and Schwenk Zement, also received an offer to buy them out in mid-2022 from an individual with links to Prime Minister Victor Orbán.

This latest move to corral the cement sector in Hungary follows a number of recent changes in legislation. Notably, Decree 404 was introduced in July 2021. This set a 90% tax on the ‘excess’ profits of cement, plaster, chalk, gravel, sand, clay, lime and gypsum producers with the stated intention of wanting to prevent rising prices. The government set a threshold price for cement of Euro56/t at the time. At the same time it also blocked exports of cement and other raw materials of declared strategic importance unless affected companies had registered with the Ministry of the Interior. The European Commission (EC) responded to a parliamentary question on the matter in November 2021 saying that it had sent a formal letter to Hungary informing it that it was breaching some parts of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (EU) on the free movement of goods. Although it noted that the new law also affected exports outside the EU, which was beyond the EC's remit. It added that the so-called ‘mining royalties’ did not seem to breach EU tax law.

Concerns over these issues between Hungary and Germany also surfaced in October 2022 when Orbán met with the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. At this time Thomas Spannagl, the head of Schwenk Zement, said that the windfall profit tax in Hungary had a "serious negative" impact on business and that importers were not affected in the same way.

Heidelberg Materials’ subsidiary Duna-Dráva Cement is the largest cement producer by production capacity in Hungary with two integrated plants at Beremend and Vác. Together they have a production capacity of 2.8Mt/yr, according to the Global Cement Directory 2023, or about 70% of the country’s active national capacity. Heidelberg Materials reported that its result from equity accounted investments fell by 27% year-on-year to Euro262m in 2022 from Euro356m in 2023 due to a decline in earnings particularly in China and Hungary. This compares to a 4% drop to Euro3.74bn in its result from current operations before depreciation and amortisation across the whole business. Despite this it also noted that Hungary’s overall economic output had grown by 5% in 2022.

Just before the new laws affecting cement companies starting arriving in mid-July 2021, the Hungarian Competition Authority started an investigation into a “drastic” increase in raw material prices. This followed a warning a year earlier in 2020 that it had started competition supervision proceedings against the three main market participants: Duna-Dráva Cement, Lafarge Cement and CRH. All three are foreign-owned companies.

Lafarge Cement Hungary operates the Kiralyegyháza plant and it is due to change its name to Holcim in May 2023. Its predecessor companies, Holcim and Lafarge, also used to run plants at Hejocsaba and Lábatlan before the merger in 2015. However, the Hejocsaba plant ran into legal problems between Holcim and another investor, shut in 2011 and was later forcibly taken over by the other party in 2014. Today the plant operates as Hejőcsabai Cement- és Mészipari (HCM) but cement production is reportedly yet to restart nearly a decade later and Holcim says that legal proceedings are still ongoing. The Lábatlan plant, meanwhile, closed for good in the early 2010s. CRH took over some of Holcim’s other operations in Hungary in 2015 at the same time as the formation of LafargeHolcim but does not run any cement plants in the country at present. It does own cement plants in nearby countries that are able to supply the Hungarian market as well as running 19 concrete units. It describes itself as the “number two player” in the local market. It wasn’t specific on Hungary in its financial results for 2022 but it did describe sales in its Europe East region as being ahead of 2021, “due to a strong focus on commercial actions to offset significant cost inflation.”

Construction costs in Hungary do appear to have grown faster than other European countries in the second half of 2021 as the country came out of the coronavirus pandemic. However, the country's anti-immigrant labour stance may have also contributed to the situation, in addition to the high-energy prices and supply chain bottlenecks experienced elsewhere. In addition, cement companies are also capable of monopolistic behaviour. For example, Duna-Dráva Cement’s proposed acquisition of Cemex Croatia was blocked by the EC back in 2017 on competition grounds. However, given how international the cement industry has become, it is surprising to see this kind of treatment from a government within the European Union.

Hungary: The government has enacted an 'architecture law' which will increase its role in decision making within the Hungarian cement industry. When it enters force in July 2023, the law will let the government set producers' cement volumes and prices. It will also require the companies to sell their products to the market-leading retail network, and will give the government a right of first refusal over future divestments.

Der Spiegel News has reported that the government previously enacted decrees that further regulated limestone production, imposed 90% 'additional mining levies' and required producers to obtain special permits to export their cement abroad. Duna-Dráva Cement, a subsidiary of Heidelberg Materials and Schwenk Zement, reportedly began making losses on its bagged cement sales due to the new rules. Both Germany-based owners separately received letters inviting them to sell a stake in Duna-Dráva Cement, and thanking them for their cooperation, in 2022. The sender identified themself as the owner of an 'intensively expanding group of companies' with a 'dominant position in the Hungarian building materials industry.' Anti-corruption organisation Transparency International identified the correspondent as a friend of Hungarian President Viktor Orbán.

Regarding the incoming change to the law, a representative of Heidelberg Materials said "These regulations are a total violation of all the rules of the European internal market. It is obvious that the government wants to pressure foreign cement manufacturers to sell.”

Hungary: Duna-Dráva Cement (DCC) has appointed Zsolt Szilágyi as its president and chief executive officer with effect from January 2023. He succeeds János Szarkándi, who is set to retire.

Szilágyi currently works at the subsidiary of Heidelberg Materials as the Deputy General Manager of Construction Materials and Trade. He started his career at DDC in 1999 as a technical coordinator. Later, he worked as an investment project manager, then as a production manager and plant director of the Váci Cement Plant.

Hungary: Kirchdorfer Gruppe subsidiary Kirchdorfer Concrete Solutions has agreed to sell a 49% stake in prestressed concrete sleepers producer MABA Hungaria to railway overhead line construction company Firma Vasútvill. Austria-based Kirchdorfer Concrete Solutions will retain its majority stake in the company.

Kirchdorfer Gruppe CEO Michael Wardian said that the group was delighted to have secured a strong partner for its Hungarian operations.

Hungary: The government has imposed a 90% tax on the excess profits of some building materials producers to prevent rising prices. It applies to companies that produce cement, lime, gypsum, chalk, gravel, sand and clay that had an annual revenue over Euro8.4m in 2019, according to the MTI news agency. Producers will be liable for a 90% ‘mining allowance’ on the difference between revenue generated using their own prices and threshold prices set in the decree. The threshold price for cement has been set at Euro56/t.

The government has also ordered that companies report the export of ‘strategic’ construction materials including cement, gypsum wallboard, gravel and steel products. The related decree also gives the state pre-emption rights for the materials that have been reported at a price "in line with their current market value." Failure to comply with the reporting obligation may result in seizure of the construction materials and fines up to Euro14,000.

Hungary: Lafarge Hungary, part of LafargeHolcim, has awarded a contract to Germany-based Loesche subsidiary A TEC for the supply of an alternative fuel (AF) flash dryer for the 1.0Mt/yr kiln line at its Királyegyháza cement plant in Baranya county. The supplier says that the dryer will use residual hot gas from the chlorine bypass system in conjunction with a satellite burner for firing the material in the kiln. The project also includes the installation of a new AF receiving, handling, and dosing system for a second AF flow firing directly into the kiln burner. A TEC says that it will commission the project in the second quarter of 2021 after the end of the plant’s 2020/2021 winter shutdown.

Philippines: The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) has issued an order amending its previous order on cement safeguards. The Manila Bulletin newspaper has reported that the amendment extends safeguard measures to 13 new countries which now exceed the necessary 3% import volume share. These are Chile, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Israel, Indonesia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia and South Korea. Imported cement from these countries will now face a safeguard duty of US$0.2/bag. An official source quoted by the newspaper called the surge in importation from these countries "trade diversion" tactics by importers since these countries were previously exempt from the safeguard duty.