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Kazakhstan: Steppe Cement reported sales of US$65.2m during the first nine months of 2023. This corresponds to a year-on-year decline of 4.8% from US$68.5m in the corresponding period of 2022. Steppe Cement forecast a year-on-year decline in its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) in full-year 2023 from US$30.9m in 2022, due partly to the impact of inflation on costs, including energy costs.

CEO Javier del Ser Perez said "Despite a slightly smaller domestic cement market so far in 2023, we remain confident that the company will continue to deliver strong sales figures going forward."

The Indian corporate rumour mill ramped up this week with speculation that UltraTech Cement and Adani Group might possibly be interested in buying Heidelberg Materials' assets in India. This follows the story broken by the Economist newspaper last week that JSW Cement had made an unsolicited offer to buy them. However, when HeidelbergCement India was asked by the Bombay Stock Exchange what exactly was going on, it replied that it was unaware of any such development and that it did not comment on market speculation.

A week later though and now another related story has popped up. In this case it is unclear exactly what the Hindu newspaper actually knew. The country’s two largest cement producers are locked in a battle for capacity expansion and any opportunity is likely to be of interest to them both. Yet the newspaper did quote a source who said that any divestment by HeidelbergCement India (HCI) would involve a “full-fledged bidding process,” implying that something may be going on.

Germany-based Heidelberg Materials operates four main subsidiaries in India: Gulbarga Cement; HC Trading (India); HCI; and Zuari Cement. HCI and Zuari Cement are the main two in terms of cement production. Heidelberg Materials entered the market in 2006 via a number of purchases and a joint-venture. It then acquired Zuari Cement via its takeover of Italcementi in 2016. Between them the two subsidiaries operate four integrated plants, three grinding plants and one terminal in Central and Southern India. Altogether the company says it has a total cement production capacity of 14Mt/yr. Gulbarga Cement, meanwhile, is a long running project via Zuari Cement to build a new integrated plant at Gulbarga in Karnataka. As of mid-2021 at least the company was still finalising planning and permitting requirements.

HCI’s income fell by 3% year-on-year to US$275m in the financial year to the end of March 2023 from US$282m in the same period that ended in 2022. Its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) dropped by 39% to US$35.4m from US$58.2m, its lowest figure since at least its 2017 financial year. The company blamed this on higher fuel prices, although it has been trying to offset this by optimising its fuel and power mix. Unfortunately, it was not able to pass these costs on to its customers through price rises due to competition and new cement plants being commissioned in its market areas. Its revenue and profits improved somewhat in the quarter to July 2023. Recent financial data on Zuari Cement appears to be unavailable, possibly in part due to the company changing the dates of its financial year in 2020. However, it reported revenue of US$249m in its 2021 financial year, a broadly comparable figure to HCI’s. When asked during the company’s earnings call in July 2023, HCI’s managing director Joydeep Mukherjee did confirm that the company was looking at a potential merger with Zuari Cement. However, the company was waiting for the right time before it would consider actually doing it.

The Indian cement market has been consolidating in recent years. Companies have been increasing their production capacity, competition has been intensifying and the spike in fuel prices in 2022 battered profits. Adani Group’s acquisition of Holcim’s businesses in 2022 has probably been the most visible example of this trend towards mergers and acquisitions. It follows UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Jaiprakash Associates in 2017. Heidelberg Materials has been steadily selling off bits and pieces of its cement business since the mid 2010s but at a slower pace than Holcim. Selected sales have occurred in Italy, Spain, Georgia, Ukraine and various countries in Africa, but the biggest was the sale of its US West region to Martin Marietta Materials for US$2.3bn in 2021. It reinforced this process with its ‘Beyond 2020’ strategy with the stated aim to simplify its country portfolio and prioritise its strongest market positions. A large-scale divestment of its operations in India would certainly fit with this plan. Whether the current reporting is accurate or not, Heidelberg Materials’ intentions for its Indian operations are certainly worth keeping an eye on.

Pakistan: Fauji Cement sold 4.9Mt of cement during Pakistan’s 2023 financial year (FY2023), which ended on 30 June 2023. This generated revenues of US$244m, up by 25% year-on-year from US$194m in FY2022. The producer’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) also rose, by 29% to US$72.3m from US$56.2m.

Managing director and CEO Qamar Haris Manzoor said “The transformation journey which started in 2020 on capacity enhancement, cost reduction initiatives and increasing captive green energy has now started to pay dividends, despite unpreceded economic challenges.” He continued “FY2023 has been challenging for businesses due to all-time high inflation and interest rates, which saw a drop in consumer demand, negatively affecting the industry. The cement industry saw a demand decline of 16% as construction activities decreased in both the northern and southern regions of the country. Despite the tough environment, Fauji Cement remained committed to its growth strategy, and successfully commissioned its 6500t/day expansion project at its Nizampur site.”

Pakistan: Dewan Cement’s turnover rose by 22% year-on-year to US$69.8m in the year to 30 June 2023 from US$57.1m in the same period that ended in 2022. Its cost of sales increased by 29% to US$68.3m from US$52.8m. It reported a loss of US$2.03m compared to US$2.43m previously.

France: Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies reported revenues of Euro1.68m during the first half of 2023, more than triple those recorded in the first half of 2022 (Euro544,000). The producer’s sales volumes of its clinkerless cement also more than tripled, to 7340t. It says it is on course to achieve its full-year 2023 target of 24,000t. The commissioning of its H2 plant in France raised the company’s installed production capacity by 250,000t.

Co-founders Julien Blanchard and David Hoffmann said "Thanks to the daily work of all our teams, we are accelerating the marketing of our innovative clinker-free cement in a construction market with demand for truly carbon-free solutions. Considering the seasonality of our sales, we intend to intensify the transformation of our order book into sales during the second half of 2023.”

Pakistan: Cherat Cement made a net profit of US$52.9m during the 2023 financial year (FY2023), which ended on 31 July 2023, around 1% lower than the previous year. This was despite a 13% year-on-year rise in gross profit in FY2023 to US$32.9m, as cost of sales rose by 18% to US$88.4m. Distribution costs also rose by 15%, while financial costs, mainly higher interest rates, rose by 41%.

Tunisia: Carthage Cement made a net profit of US$7.7m in the year to 30 June 2023, a year-on-year increase of 57% from US$4.9m a year earlier. At the end of June 2023, the company recorded total operating revenues of US$68.7m, an increase of 22% from US$56.3m.

Kenya/Uganda: Bamburi Cement’s profit after tax has been adversely affected by a tax claim in the first half of 2023. The cement producer said that its profit after tax was reduced due to the “settlement of corporation tax matters in Uganda.” Its turnover grew by 11% year-on-year to US$153m from US$138m in the same period in 2022. However, its profit after for tax fell by 7% to US$604,000 from US$652,000. As well as operating plants in Kenya, the subsidiary of Switzerland-based Holcim runs Hima Cement in Uganda.

Reporting by the Business Daily newspaper has revealed that the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) started a review in 2020 of Hima Cement’s transfer pricing compliance between 2014 and 2018. The URA then raised its corporation tax assessment for Hima Cement in December 2022. Bamburi Cement has also faced additional penalties and interest charges from the Kenya Revenue Authority.

The first half of 2023 has continued to be a tough period for the major China-based cement producers, with revenue and profits down for many. As CNBM put it, the sector is facing production overcapacity, weak demand, high inventory, low prices and declining profits. However, not every company has followed this trend, with a few such as Anhui Conch, Huaxin Cement and Tapai Group managing to hold operating income up and the latter somehow even managing to increase its net profit. The China Cement Association (CCA) in its financial coverage has memorably described these companies that have bucked the national picture as ‘dark horses.’

Graph 1: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports. Note: For CNBM, cement revenue shown only.

Graph 1 above summarises the situation for a selected group of cement producers. Anhui Conch avoided the fate of CNBM by managing to grow its non-cement revenue, specifically from aggregates and concrete. Yet it too was unble to avoid its net profit falling by 32% year-on-year to US$928m in the first half of 2023 from US$1.37bn in the same period in 2022. Huaxin Cement pulled off the same trick by raising its concrete and aggregates revenue domestically and by growing its overseas revenue. As well as its subsidiaries in Africa, the company also added Oman Cement to its portfolio, completing the acquisition of a majority stake in April 2023. The CCA has a wider roundup of how well the local cement companies have done.

Graph 2: Cement output in China, 2019 to first half of 2023. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China suggests that the cement sector is stagnating rather than actively declining. This is an improvement of sorts from the decline in the first half of 2022, at least. Cement output in the first half of 2023 rose ever so slightly to 980Mt from 979Mt in the same period in 2022. On a rolling annual basis cement output has been gently falling below 1% each month since November 2022, although it rose by nearly 1% in March 2023.

The underlying problem for the Chinese cement sector remains the local real estate market. Developer Country Garden has been the latest company to warn of potential losses – of up to US$7.6bn – in the first half of 2023. It is also currently attempting to ask for more time to repay a bond. This follows the financial problems that Evergrande has faced since 2021. Financial analysts have been monitoring the situation for several years and warning of what a larger collapse in the sector could mean for the wider economy, such as the implications for the banks that hold the debts of the developers. Commentary by Goldman Sachs in August 2023, for example, suggested that the real estate sector needs to manage its inventory on a large scale, with over US$2Tn in liquidations, in order to restructure debts in the property sector. It estimated that the whole situation could reduce the country’s entire gross domestic product (GDP) by 1.5% in 2023, although this would be the trough of the downturn in its view.

Cement producers in China continue to be held hostage by the conditions in the real estate market and the effect this has in turn on demand for building materials. Yet all is not lost, as the examples of the CCA’s ‘dark horses’ show, buoyed by business diversification, overseas expansion or even regional differences. How much longer the rest of the other cement companies can cope in this environment remains to be seen. A less regulated market would certainly expect to see mergers and acquisitions taking place as the financial pressure mounts. China, for now at least, remains steadfastly different. With luck the real estate market may reach its lowest point in 2023 and a recovery could follow.

Australia: Adbri recorded sales of US$599m during the first half of 2023, up by 14% year-on-year. Its net profit grew by 13%, to US$33.7m. The producer noted continued ‘solid’ demand, and traction on its price increases. It faced high capital requirements for its on-going upgrade of its Kwinana grinding plant to consolidate its Western Australian operations there. The company expects its second-half 2023 earnings to rise ‘moderately’ due to the effects of its cost discipline and price increases, as well as sustained levels of cement demand.