Displaying items by tag: US

As a companion to the trends based article in the December 2016 issue of Global Cement Magazine, here are some of the major news stories from the industry in 2016. Remember this is just one view of the year's events. If you think we've missed anything important let us know via LinkedIn, Twitter or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

HeidelbergCement buys Italcementi
Undeniably the big story of the year, HeidelbergCement has gradually acquired Italcementi throughout 2016. Notably, unlike the merger of Lafarge and Holcim, the cement producer has not held a party to mark the occasion. Instead each major step of the process has been reported upon incrementally in press releases and other sources throughout the year. The enlarged HeidelbergCement appears to be in a better market position than LafargeHolcim but it will be watched carefully in 2017 for signs of weakness.

LafargeHolcim faces accusations over conduct in Syria
The general theme for LafargeHolcim in 2016 has been one of divestments to shore up its balance sheet. However, one news story could potentially sum up its decline for the wider public. In June 2016 French newspaper Le Monde alleged that Lafarge had struck deals with armed groups in Syria, including so-called Islamic State (IS), to protect its assets in 2013 and 2014. LafargeHolcim didn’t deny the claims directly in June. Then in response to a legal challenge on the issue mounted in November 2016 its language tightened to statements condoning terrorism whilst still allowing some wriggle room. As almost all of the international groups in Syria are opposed to IS, should these allegations prove to be true it will not look good for the world’s largest cement producer.

China and India balance sector restructuring with production growth
Both China and India seem to have turned a corner in 2016 with growing cement production and a generally more upbeat feeling for the industries. Both have also seen some high profile consolidations or mergers underway which will hopefully cut inefficiencies. China’s focus on its ‘One Belt, One Road’ appears to be delivering foreign contracts as CBMI’s recent flurry of orders in Africa attests although Sinoma’s equipment arm was losing money in the first half of 2016. Meanwhile, India may have damaged its own growth in the short term through its demonetisation policy to take high value Indian rupee currency notes out of circulation. In November 2016 cement demand was believed to have dropped by up to half as the real estate sector struggled to adapt. The pain is anticipated to carry on until the end of March 2017.

US industry growth stuck in the slow lane
The US cement industry has failed to take off yet again in 2016 with growth lagging below 5%. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has reported that clinker production has risen by 1% in the first ten months of 2016 and that it fell in the third quarter of the year. In response, the Portland Cement Association (PCA) lowered its forecasts for both 2016 and 2017. One unknown here has been the election of President-elect Donald Trump and the uncertainty over what his policies might bring. If he ‘goes large,’ as he said he wants to, on infrastructure then the cement industry will benefit. Yet, knock-on effects from other potential policies like restricting migrant labour might have unpredictable consequences upon the general construction industry.

African expansion follows the money
International cement producers have prospered at the expense of local ones in 2016. The big shock this year was when Nigeria’s Dangote announced that it was scaling back its expansion plans in response to problems in Nigeria principally with the devaluation of the Naira. Since then it has also faced local problems in Ghana, Ethiopia and Tanzania. Its sub-Saharan competitor PPC has also had problems too. By contrast, foreign investors from outside the continent, led by China, have scented opportunity and opened their wallets.

Changes in store for the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme
A late entry to this roundup is the proposed amendment to the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). This may entail the introduction of a Border Adjustment Measure (BAM) with the loss of free allowances for the cement sector in Phase IV. Cembureau, the European Cement Association, has slammed the changes as ‘discriminatory’ and raised concerns over how this would affect competitiveness. In opposition the environmental campaign group Sandbag has defended the changes as ones that could put a stop to the ‘cement sector’s windfall profits from the ETS.’

High growth shifts to Philippines and other territories
Indonesia may be lurching towards production overcapacity, but fear not, the Philippines have arrived on the scene to provide high double-digit growth on the back of the Duterte Infrastructure Plan. The Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines (CEMAP) has said that cement sales have risen by 10.1% year-on-year to 20.1Mt in the first three quarters of 2016 and lots of new plants and upgrade projects are underway. The other place drawing attention in the second half of the year has been Pakistan with cement sales jumping in response to projects being built by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 4 January 2016

This week the US Portland Cement Association (PCA) revised down its forecast for the rise in cement consumption in 2016 to 2.7% from 4%. It also lowered its prediction for 2017, blaming political uncertainty around the presidential election, inflation and slower construction activity. Global Cement Magazine editorial director Robert McCaffrey pointed out on LinkedIn that he was surprised by the revision down in 2017 given the rhetoric by president-elect Donald Trump to invest in large infrastructure projects.

Clearly the PCA is playing it cautious as a politically unknown entity, Trump, slides from campaign trail promises to executive power delivery. Backing them up are the latest figures from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) that show that both cement production and shipments fell slightly in the third quarter of 2016. In the quarter before the election in November 2016 the cement market slowed down. The hard bit is working out why. As we pointed out in a review of the US cement industry in the May 2016 issue of Global Cement Magazine the PCA had previously downgraded its forecast in 2016 due to economic uncertainty despite strong fundamentals for the construction industry. Then, as now, the great hope for the US cement industry was infrastructure spending down the pipeline, at that time the Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act. At this point it doesn’t seem to have had much of an effect.

Industrial and economic forecasters aren’t the only ones who have a hard time of it in 2016. Political pollsters have also been caught out. Surprises came from the UK’s decision to leave the European Union and the election of Trump. Neither result was widely expected in the media. As explained above, should Trump make good on his building plans then if any cement company based its plans on a forecast dependent on a Hilary Clinton win then it may have lost money.

The power of forecasts has even greater potential effects in developing markets where the corresponding financial risks and rewards are higher. After all, why would any cement company invest tens of millions of US dollars for a cement grinding plant or hundreds of millions for an integrated plant unless there was some whiff of a return on investment?

This then leads to the problems Dangote has reportedly been having with its plant in Tanzania. Amidst a flurry of local media speculation in late November 2016 about why its Mtwara plant had a temporary production shutdown, Dangote’s country chief clarified that it was due to technical problems. It then emerged this week that Dangote’s owner Aliko Dangote met with President John Magufuli to agree a gas supply agreement to the plant. The point here being that even if the market conditions and demographics seems conducive to profit, as is the case in Tanzania, if the local government changes any incentives agreed at the planning stage then everything can change. At this point forecasts based on data become moot.

There’s a great quote from the US pollster Nate Silver that goes, “The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.” In terms of election campaigns run at a time of upheaval that might mean listening to people more than looking at polling data. In terms of a cement company operating in Africa that might mean fostering links with the local government to ensure no sudden policy changes catch you off-guard. And in the US that might just mean cement company analysts have to follow Donald Trump’s Twitter account.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has elected Allen Hamblen, president and chief executive officer of CalPortland Company, as chairman of the PCA board of directors, and Tom Beck, president of Continental Cement Company, was elected vice chairman. Hamblen takes over PCA board chairmanship from John Stull, chief executive officer of US Cement for LafargeHolcim US.

Prior to 2006, Hamblen was president and chief executive officer of Glacier Northwest and has worked with CalPortland and its predecessor for 31 years. He is a former chairman of the National Ready Mixed Concrete Association, a trustee of the Ready Mixed Concrete Research and Education Foundation and is a former president of the Washington Aggregates and Concrete Association.

Beck has served as senior vice president at Continental Cement from 2005 to 2013, and as vice president of sales and marketing from 1996 to 2005. He is also a former chairman of the American Concrete Paving Association.

In June 2016, the polls said that the UK would remain in the European Union (EU), but now we have the prospect of Brexit. Democrat supporters in the US now know how the UK's 'Remainers' feel. The unthinkable has happened: the so-called 'Deplorables' have taken over the asylum. Donald Trump has won the US presidential election and he will be the 45th US president, after confounding all the polls, the media, the analysts and the commentators. He'll be able to appoint a swathe of right-leaning office-holders, including a crucial replacement for the late Antonin Scalia on the US Supreme Court. This will change the direction of US law-making for years, possibly decades, towards a less-liberal and more conservative outlook.

Trump will also be aided by having Republican majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives and will actually be able to get things done. President Obama had to fight hard for eight years to achieve anything, and finally had to fall back on enacting laws by presidential dictat or 'Executive Orders.' 'The Donald' will not have to stoop so low, and once he takes office will effectively be 'sweeping with the wind.'

Trump looks set to change US policy in a number of areas, including being less conciliatory towards America's foes ("I'm going to bomb the s••t out of ISIS"), taxing imports and tearing up trade agreements and rolling back US environmental efforts (he has promised to abolish the US Environmental Protection Agency, to cancel the Paris climate change deal, to sanction more drilling for oil and to approve the Keystone XL oil pipeline the fourth phase of which was recently rejected by President Obama). Who knows what else he has planned?

Well, one thing that we do know is that Trump's election is very probably great news for the US cement industry.

Early on in his victory speech, moments after receiving a telephone call from Hillary Clinton conceding defeat, Trump laid out the first step of his plan to 'Make America Great Again:' building US infrastructure. Trump said: "We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. We’re going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it." He didn't actually mention cement (nor did he mention a 'big beautiful wall'), but all of these projects will require plenty of cement and concrete. Whether they voted for him or not (and Trump noted that there are those 'who have chosen not to support me in the past, of which there were a few people'), workers in the cement industry will be celebrating the prospect of fuller order sheets, higher prices, better profitability and more overtime. From a current GDP growth rate of around 1%, some have suggested a surge past 3%/yr and beyond during a Trump presidency. The crucial question, often overlooked, is "How are we going to pay for all this investment?" With the US debt heading towards US$20Tn, perhaps Trump's history as a Democrat - and all the tax-raising territory that comes with that position - might come in handy after all.

Trump has indicated that he's already looking to a second term ("I look very much forward to being your president, and hopefully at the end of two years or three years or four years, or maybe even eight years...") based on what he might achieve in his first term. Well, let's see. Donald Trump's deeds now need to speak louder than Donald Trump's words.

Two of Japan's largest cement producers have reported reduced domestic cement sales in the country this week. First, Taiheiyo Cement revised its forecast for its 2017 financial year, ending on 31 March 2017, bringing its estimated net sales down by 2.3%. Then, Ube Group reported that its cement sales had fallen by 7.2% year-on-year to US$1.05bn in the first half of its financial year. Both producers blamed poor weak demand locally, but Ube also cited a poor export market.

Graph 1: Domestic and export cement sales in Japan, 2006 - 2015. Source: Japanese Cement Association.

This last point is interesting because it differs from the latest data released by the Japanese Cement Association (JCA). As can be seen in Graph 1 JCA figures show that exports of cement have been rising since 2013. So far this trend looks likely to continue in 2016. Ube's different experience may arise from its market mix and its distribution of cement plants and transport infrastructure. Both of its cement plants are based in the south of the country. Commentators have attributed the boost in exports to the devaluation of the Yen in 2015 as well as strong brand perception overseas. Unfortunately, this overall rise in exports has been matched by a fall in domestic sales at the same time and this is causing a headache for the major producers. Production too has started to drop since 2014 (Graph 2).

Graph 2: Cement production in Japan, 2006 - 2015. Source: Japanese Cement Association.

Japan's cement market is dominated by four producers - Taiheiyo Group, Mitsubishi Materials, Ube Industries and Sumitomo Osaka Cement - which hold nearly three quarters of the nation's production capacity between them. According to Global Cement Directory 2016 data, Taiheiyo Cement and its subsidiaries is the market leader with over 30% market share with the other three holding 10 - 20% each.

Graph 3: Cement production capacity share in Japan (Mt). Source: Global Cement Directory 2016.

Taiheiyo's downgraded forecast follows poor first quarter results, in which its net sales for its cement business fell by 16% to US$1.19bn. This follows a slight rise in net sales for its cement business in its 2016 financial year due to a boost in sales from its overseas subsidiaries, particularly in the US, that surpass a fall in domestic sales. Sales volumes were 14.7Mt domestically and 4Mt in exports in 2016. Mitsubishi Materials has posted a similar picture with cement sales and profits rising in 2016 before suffering in the first quarter of 2017. Mitsubishi Materials blamed the poor market on a delay in construction work mainly due to labour shortages and sluggish growth in demand from the public sector. Ditto Sumitomo Osaka Cement.

As highlighted by such decision as Tokyo Cement's move to resume exporting clinker to Sri Lanka in early 2015, Japan's cement industry is working hard to compensate for falling demand at home. Increasing exports in Asia Pacific among other massive exporters such as China, Vietnam and South Korea is impressive, although the prominent foothold by Japanese companies in the recovering US market may offer some advantage here. On-going weak demand in China though cuts out one major market for Chinese exporters. However, being a major exporter in a region of major cement producers must be a concern. Although commentators such as Ad Ligthart dismiss the chances of China flooding the world with cheap cement, if they are wrong and Japan continues its reliance on exports it may find itself in deep water. The other risk is if the US authorities decide to get tougher on foreign exports it may knock out one more market for Japanese exports. Too much reliance on exports is always dangerous. In this context, it’s no surprise that Japanese cement producers are blaming the government for insufficient infrastructure spending.

US: Chairman and CEO Doug Oberhelman will retire from Caterpillar on 31 March 2017. The company’s board of directors has elected Jim Umpleby, currently a Caterpillar Group President with responsibility for Energy & Transportation, to succeed Oberhelman as CEO.

Umpleby, a 35-year veteran of the company, will join the Caterpillar Board of Directors and become CEO effective 1 January 2017. He joined Solar Turbines in San Diego, California in 1980. Solar, a wholly owned subsidiary of Caterpillar, is a manufacturer of industrial gas turbine systems. Early in his career, he held numerous positions of increasing responsibility in engineering, manufacturing, sales, marketing and customer services. Umpleby lived in Asia from 1984 to 1990 with assignments in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The Caterpillar Board of Directors elected Umpleby a Caterpillar Vice President and President of Solar Turbines in 2010. He was named Group President and a member of Caterpillar’s Executive Office, effective from January 2013.

US: Summit Materials has appointed Noel R Ryan III as its new Vice President, Investor Relations. Ryan has more than 15 years’ experience in the investor relations and capital markets industries, most recently serving as Vice President and Head of Investor Relations & External Communications for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, a publicly traded producer of specialty hydrocarbon and fuels products.

Previously, Ryan served as head of the investor relations function at Delek US Holdings and as head of corporate communications at QEP Resources. Prior to these roles, he was Executive Director and Co-Head of the Financial Communications Practice Group at a nationally-ranked investor relations consultancy. Ryan began his career in US equities research at Banc of America Securities. He holds a Bachelors of Arts degree from the University of California, Berkeley.

Once again Ecocem has shone the torch this week for a rare thing within Europe these days: a growing cement company. Its latest project is an import terminal in Sweden, as part of a deal with Bolidan, which launched on 22 September 2016. This supports an arrangement to supply cement for the Boliden Garpenberg mine. The agreement also includes supply for the Boliden Tara Mines in Ireland.

This follows the announcement to build a new slag grinding plant in Dunkirk, France in early September 2016 and the opening of a new terminal in Runcorn, UK earlier in the year. The 1.4Mt/yr Dunkirk plant is a joint-venture with the steelmaker ArcelorMittal, intended to target markets in north of France and in the UK. Once complete it will join Ecocem’s growing collection of grinding units in Ireland, France and the Netherlands. The slag-cement producer operates a 0.35Mt/yr plant at Dublin, a 0.7Mt/yr plant at Fos in the south of France and a 0.35Mt/yr plant at Moerdijk under its subsidiary Orcem Netherlands.

The focus on the UK makes sense given that Ecocem said that it had made commitments to sell more product in the UK in its first year than its total domestic sales in 2016. This followed the situation where, prior to entering the British market, Ecocem had to stop taking orders in the short term due to demand. If this is actually the case then it is unsurprising to note that Ecocem is also building a second UK terminal at Sheerness at the mouth of the River Thames near to London. As an aside, Francis Flower bought the Scunthorpe ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS) plant from Hanson Cement in mid-2015 after the local market regulator requested the sale.

As Charlie Zeynel, ZAG International, says in an interview to be published in the October 2016 issues of Global Cement Magazine, that supplementary cementitous materials, including slags, in cement blends has grown worldwide, particularly in Europe and Japan, where GGBS cement represents around 25% and 30% of cement sales respectively. Zeynel goes on to say that GGBS usage is set to rise in other parts of the world, particularly the US, but this helps to explain the market Ecocem is operating in within northern Europe.

Ecocem seems well aware of the potential for slag cements in the US because it is attempting to build a Euro45m grinding plant Vallejo, California under its Orcem Americas subsidiary. The process has so far been dogged by planning problems at the proposed site as well as organised local opposition, which does not want a new industrial plant in the neighbourhood and issues such as the increased traffic it would bring. The irony here is that Ecocem bills itself as an environmentally friendly cement producer. Yet even environmentally-friendly cement needs to be manufactured and taken to site.

To misquote Kermit the Frog: it’s not easy selling green cement. However, Ecocem’s progress in Europe is encouraging both in the UK and the wider area. Roll on the opening of the Sheerness terminal.

Find out more about Ecocem's operations here: www.ecocem.fr/en/

US: Eagle Materials has appointed George Damiris to its board of directors. Damiris is the chief executive officer and president of HollyFrontier Corporation. He also serves as a director at HollyFrontier and Holly Logistics Services.

Congratulations are in order for CalPortland. It celebrates its 125th anniversary or quasquicentennial today. According to the company blurb on the website, a cement plant was established in 1891 in Colton, California. This was the first plant west of the Rockies and it went on to supply building materials towards the development of Los Angeles. However, the website doesn’t exactly shout about its purchase in 1990 by one of the Japanese companies that eventually became Taiheiyo Cement. Its earliest constituent company, the Cement Manufacturing Company, was established 10 years earlier than CalPortland in 1881. So perhaps CalPortland could celebrate the 135th anniversary of its Japanese owners at some point this year too.

Table 1: Age of leading cement companies by production capacity: Source: The Top 100 Report 2016, Global Cement Directory 2016, company websites, Wikipedia

As can be seen from Table 1, a list of major cement producers by production capacity in 2016, most of the European or non-Chinese multinationals are old. They have roots in various predecessor companies going back at least a century. By contrast most of the Chinese producers on this list are far younger having been established since the 1980s.

Table 2: Age of selected older cement companies still in business: Source: Company websites.

Table 2 adds an international perspective from the cement industry to CalPortland’s achievement. It’s an arbitrary list chosen from larger, mostly multinational cement producers that still operate today. As such it may well be missing some key names. However, they all follow the first industrial revolution innovators in cement such as John Smeaton, Joseph Aspdin or Louis Vicat. A generation later the first cement companies that have endured to the present in some form or another such as Lafarge, Vicat or Dyckerhoff started to appear. As impressive as the longevity of these companies are though, they pale in comparison to Saint-Gobain, the French construction materials company that was first established in 1665.

A BBC News article on company lifespans found that the average lifespan of a company listed in the S&P 500 index of leading US companies had decreased from 67 years in the 1920s to 15 years in 2012, according to research by Professor Richard Foster of Yale University [LINK]. By this measure most of the cement companies examined here are doing well. Yet, most of the older ones have endured such a tangle of mergers, acquisitions and changes that it is debatable whether any of them could be considered the same company as their originator. Joseph-Auguste Pavin de Lafarge may have started his operations at Teil in the Ardèche region of France in 1833 but LafargeHolcim, its modern day successor, is only one year old following its creation from Lafarge and Holcim in 2015.

This leads to the Ship of Theseus' paradox or the thought experiment regarding whether an object that has all of its parts replaced is still the same object. Just as humans gradually have most of their constituent parts (or cells) replaced over time so too do long-lasting companies. One superficial response is to point out that memory or heritage can have a lasting effect for individual, national and corporate entities. Just compare, for example, the different outlook of western European national states with millennia of continuation to much newer nations in the Americas. European countries, like the UK, are often seen as being old and stuffy compared to new world dynamism despite all the citizens in both regions being younger than their countries.

To end on a cementitious note, perhaps this dilemma should be renamed the Kiln of Theseus paradox for the cement industry. If a cement plant’s engineers replace all the parts of a cement kiln is it still the same kiln? The suspicion is that the staff at CalPortland would definitely think it is!

If any readers have a suggested name for a 135th anniversary This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.