Displaying items by tag: Vietnam

Vietnam: Xie Guozhen, the head of the Vietnam office of Nanjing C-HOPE Cement Engineering Group, says that the company is planning to build a new production line at the Lien Khe plant in Haiphong. The Chinese engineering firm has previously built five cement production lines in the country, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper.

Vietnam: Data from the Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA) shows that the country’s export volumes of cement rose by 55% year-on-year to 31.7Mt in 2018. Producers generated an estimated US$1.2bn from exports, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper. The VNCA’s Chairman Nguyen Quang Cung attributed growing exports to decreased production in China, where production lines have been closed due to pollution.

The Ministry of Construction has attributed growing exports to better performance in the construction sector. Domestic cement consumption grew by 9% to 65.1Mt in 2018. It estimates that consumption will rise by up to 8% in 2019 to around 99Mt, comprising 69Mt for the local market and 30Mt for export. The main export markets in 2019 are expected to be the Philippines, Bangladesh, China, Taiwan and Peru.

Indonesia: Semen Indonesia has signed a sales and purchase agreement worth US$917m to buy a 80.6% share of Holcim Indonesia. The acquisition gives Semen Indonesia a production capacity of 53Mt/yr making it the largest cement producer in south-east Asia, according to the Antara news agency. Prior to the purchase it had a capacity of 38.2Mt/yr and Holcim Indonesia had a capacity of 14.8Mt/yr.

Sigit Wahono, the temporary head of the Semen Indonesia Communication Department, said that the company is planning to increase its exports from 10% of total sales at present. It exported 860,060t in 2017. To the end of October in 2018 it had exported 2.3Mt, comprising 1.25Mt of cement and 1.1Mt of semi-finished cement. Its main targets are Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, with the majority of imports coming from Indonesia but 0.7Mt coming from the group’s subsidiary in Vietnam.

Vietnam: Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc has approved an upgrade to the Long Son cement plant in Thanh Hoa province. The plant will have two new production lines with a total production capacity of 2.3Mt/yr, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper. The new lines will also include waste treatment systems. Line 3 is expected to begin operation in 2020 and line 4 in 2021. The Ministry of Construction has been assigned to work with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment and the provincial People’s Committee to supervise the project.

Vietnam: The Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc has asked the Ministry of Construction and VICEM to report on the country’s excess cement capacity, which is set to reach 25-36Mt/yr by 2020.

The latest statistics from the Ministry of Construction’s Building Material Department show that cement consumption was approximately 45Mt in the first half of 2018, a rise of 30% year-on-year compared to the same period of 2017, and more than 50% of the year’s plan.

The sector’s capacity is 110Mt/yr, including the volume from plants expected to be built in 2018. Aside from that, existing plants have kept improving technology so their production capacity might reach 120-130Mt/yr by 2020.

Three large projects with the total capacity of 10Mt/yr were put into operation in the past 12 months. In 2019 many more projects are expected to come into operation, with a total new capacity of 12Mt/yr coming online.

Vietnam: Associate Professor Dinh Trong Thinh, of the Academy of Finance – part of the Ministry of Finance, has conceded that exported cement from the country has a low price due to the poorer quality of some of its product. In an interview with the ministry’s press service, Vietnam Economic News, he said that some smaller and medium-sized cement producers use old technology such as shaft kilns, according to Việt Nam News newspaper. He added that local producers were forced to export cement at lower prices than it is sold domestically to reduce inventory. He noted that this was not sustainable in the long run due to production costs and overseas competition.

Vietnam: Ha Thanh Cement has been blocked from building a 0.5Mt/yr grinding plant in the Tran De Industrial Park in Soc Trang province. The Ministry of Construction said it did not conform to current regulations, according to the Việt Nam News newspaper. The ministry added that the company could not set up the grinding plant as there was no clinker line with the same output capacity in the region. It cited Planning 1488 on Vietnam’s cement development for the 2011 - 2020 period, with vision until 2030. Existing regulations require all cement grinding plants to accompany clinker production lines and do not allow for any standalone grinding plants.

Vietnam: China has become the largest importer of clinker and cement from Vietnam in the first nine months of 2018. It imported 6.56Mt with a value of US$235m, according to the Việt Nam News newspaper. The Philippines, Bangladesh and Taiwan were the next largest importers with 4.75Mt, 5.64Mt and 1.23Mt respectively.

Vietnam: Tan Thang Cement has ordered additional integrated digital automation and electrical equipment from Switzerland’s ABB for a new 2Mt/yr plant it is building in Nghe An province. The order is a follow- up order to the initial automation and electrical systems delivery from ABB for this site, which is currently under construction.

The follow-up order includes a 110kV AIS Substation (Air Insulated Substation), with a SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) system based on ABB Ability System 800xA for Power Control, as well as telecommunications, and High Voltage primary and secondary equipment to support the electrical infrastructure. ABB will also deliver power transformers, distribution transformers, an Intelligent Motor Control Centre, Auxiliary Control Centre, Emergency Diesel Generator, DC power supply, various field devices and related commissioning services.

ABB’s initial delivery included ABB Ability System 800xA DCS (Distributed Control System) to integrate control, electrical and communication systems for optimal visibility into all processes for stable production and efficient use of raw materials and energy. It also included ABB Ability Knowledge Manager and Expert Optimizer software, as well as basic communication and electrical system infrastructure and equipment.

The project is scheduled to be commissioned in late 2019.

What’s long, thin and has already exported more than 20Mt of cement in 2018? The answer is Vietnam, which reported this week that it exported 20.1Mt of cement between 1 January 2018 and 31 August 2018. That’s 106 - 112% of its annual ‘target’ in just eight months and around the same amount as it claims to have exported during the whole of 2017. Total cement production in Vietnam was 63.9Mt between January and August 2018, meaning that the country has exported 31.3% of the cement it made over this period. Vietnam itself consumed ‘just’ 43.8Mt. The government target for Vietnamese cement consumption during 2018 is around 65 - 66Mt. That’s basically the amount it has already made.

From a market-led mind-set these targets seem fairly large, huge even, especially the export target. Indeed the concept of such national targets is in itself an alien concept. In most of the world, imports and exports are results of market supply and demand trends, not drivers prescribed by the government.

The reasons behind this apparent desire to export these very large volumes of cement are, therefore, probably best understood from within Vietnam, and we won’t speculate too much on them here. However, Vietnam is clearly determined to continue to produce ever more cement than it can use. In what other country could a major government-owned producer export more than 70% of the cement it makes? In the first half of 2018 Vicem did just that, shipping 11.7Mt of cement overseas from the 14.2Mt that it made.

In 2017 Vietnam’s export target was 15Mt. It ended up smashing this to the tune of 5Mt, 33% more than the target. At the current rate the sector looks like it could overshoot even more spectacularly this year, perhaps hitting as much as 30Mt of cement exports in 2018. This is more than a big European country like Germany can produce! It certainly sounds like a lot but… is it really an exceptional number?

Looking at data from World’s Top Exports (WTEx), which we advise delving into, it seems that this would be a very high number indeed. It reports that a total of 166.6Mt of cement were exported internationally in 2017. It reports that the top exporter was not, as you may by this point have been primed to suggest, Vietnam. It wasn’t even China, as the former number one was bumped into second place (12.91Mt) by Thailand (13.03Mt). Turkey was third (12.79Mt), with Japan fourth (11.93Mt) and Vietnam was listed as fifth (9.53Mt).

All of these biggest exporters except Turkey are in the Far East, an area swamped with cheap cement. China’s average export selling price according to WTEx was US$45/t, against a global average of US$55/t. Thailand undercut it by US$3/t at US$42/t, perhaps explaining its rise to the top spot. Turkey’s average export price was also US$42/t, although it is located in a region that has a lot of saturated markets and others that are growing rapidly. Its average export distance was second only to China’s. Vietnam’s average cement export price was US$51/t, higher than the others. This does not tie in with the apparent rise in exports so far in 2018. This price may have since fallen. Surprisingly, Japan had the lowest export price of the top five exporters by volume at just US$30/t in 2017.

So, to re-answer the question posed two paragraphs above, 30Mt is a very high number indeed. But you’ll have spotted the large discrepancy between WTEx’s 9.53Mt figure for Vietnam, which relies on reciprocal import partner data, and the government’s official line of 21Mt for 2017. One is tempted to ask where the other 50% of the exports reported by the Vietnamese actually ended up, especially given that WTEx reports a US$1.5bn difference in the value of exports and imports across the year. Imports were valued at US$8.8bn but exports were valued at US$10.3bn.

The mystery destination of all that cement, real or imagined, could be the topic of an entire separate column. What appears to be the case at present, is that rampant Vietnamese cement overcapacity is here to stay. The country, as well as Japan, Turkey, Thailand et. al., could stand to benefit in the short term, as China acts ever more aggressively to end its own oversupply situation. However, there could come a time when it has to take its foot off the gas. There are no signs of that yet though.