Displaying items by tag: Cemex

LafargeHolcim was the last of the major non-Chinese cement producers to report its annual financial results when it did so on 17 March 2016. With the full set in, as it were, Global Cement will compare the progress of the world’s largest multinational cement companies in 2015.

The first thing to note is that whilst cement production growth rates have hardly been inspiring in 2015, growth or holding the status quo is occurring. The emerging markets have faced challenges in 2015 following the prolonged depression in the construction sector in Europe since 2008. As Wolfgang Reitzle and Eric Olsen put it in the forward of the 2015 LafargeHolcim annual report, “…our share price has been significantly affected, mainly by the volatility associated with emerging markets.”

Figure 1: Cement & clinker sales volumes from five major cement producers, 2011 – 2015. Source: Annual reports. Note: Sales volumes are calculated for LafargeHolcim for 2011 – 2013.

Figure 1 shows cement and clinker sales volumes for the major cement producers from 2011 to 2015. This graph isn’t quite as depressing as it looks because it shows a drop in cement production for the major producers and it has started to show remedial action being taken. Where growth isn’t happening in a market, pressure builds to find it through mergers and acquisitions.

So, Lafarge and Holcim merged and the decision may be now starting to show promise with its sales volumes remaining static year-on-year in 2015 rather than falling. It should be noted here that the drop from 2013 to 2014 is due to the divestments Lafarge and Holcim both made before the merger to satisfy competition bodies and because the sales volumes were calculated here from the separate Lafarge and Holcim annual reports.

Even more so, HeidelbergCement’s plan to buy Italcementi may be a good idea here. Already it has been growing its cement production each year since 2013. The acquisition could potentially speed up the growth considerably. Elsewhere, both Cemex and Buzzi Unicem are showing signs of picking up cement production since 2013.

Figure 2: Earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) for five major cement producers, 2011 – 2015. Source: Annual reports. Note: Cemex and LafargeHolcim figures have been converted from US Dollars and Swiss Francs respectively at current exchange rates.

Figure 2 shows one indicator of profitability for the major cement producers by comparing their earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT). This is less useful than cement sales volumes because it covers the producers’ entire businesses including aggregate and concrete sectors. However, it does show the problems Italcementi has faced and it offers one reason why the company might have allowed itself to be taken over. Note also how Cemex has continued to increase its EBIT despite its high levels of debts.

Returning to the LafargeHolcim comments about volatile emerging markets, most of the producers reported tough trading in their Asian territories in 2015. The exceptions were Cemex with its reliance on the Philippines booming market and Buzzi with its limited assets in the region. However, Cemex suffered in its own major emerging market in South and Central America. Despite these setbacks though all of the producers featured here benefitted from growing sales volumes in North America, particularly in the US.

Both LafargeHolcim and Cemex announced divestments promptly following their results announcements suggesting that they feel they need to do more to regain the profitability they once had. LafargeHolcim plans to sell assets in South Korea and Saudi Arabia. Cemex has agreed to sell cement plants in Bangladesh and Thailand and a minority stake in its business in the Philippines. This last decision may suggest how serious Cemex is about tackling its debts considering the strong market in that country at present. HeidelbergCement is due to complete its acquisition of Italcementi in the second half of 2016.

Finally, the major changes to the multinational cement producers will continue in 2016 as CRH asserts itself following its major acquisitions from Lafarge and Holcim in 2015. Already its Europe Heavyside Divison reported sales revenue of Euro3.61bn in 2015 surpassing that of Buzzi Unicem. Other international producers such as Eurocement, InterCement and Votorantim were also poised for continuing growing but poor domestic markets (Russia and Brazil) may cripple their ambitions in the short term.

Cemex has taken action towards its debts over the course of the last week. First, it announced that it had amended its credit agreements in order to delay the looming effects of consolidated financial leverage and coverage ratio limits by one year to March 2017 with other similar deadlines also delayed. Then it announced the pricing of US$1bn of Senior Secured Notes due in 2026, a form of secured borrowing. This was followed by confirmation of asset sales in Bangladesh and Thailand. Finally, it announced that it was seeking regulatory permission to sell a minority stake in its subsidiary in the Philippines.

This column has discussed the on-going financial travails at Cemex a few times, notably recently when the group released its fourth quarter results for 2015 and in the wake of HeidelbergCement’s announcement to buy Italcementi. Basically, it all comes down to debt, as the following graph shows.

Figure 1 - Cemex assets, debt and equity, 2006 - 2015

Cemex took on large amounts of debt following its acquisition of Rinker in 2007. Since then the value of its assets have been falling faster than it has been able to reduce its debts. However, its equity (assets minus debts) is looking like it might dip below its debts in 2016. Hence, action needs to be taken. Cemex appears to have attempted to do this over the last week. Will it be enough?

The credit amendment was probably the most pressing issue for the Cemex management given that the terms have been reliant on maintaining a leverage ratio (debt divided by assets) below a set limit. Cemex has extended the terms of the borrowing in its favour so it can keep the leverage ratio higher for longer without penalty from its creditors. Note that the leverage ratio here means the ratio between debt and operating earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBIDTA).

Selling assets and shares in Asia is the next step in cutting debt in the window the group has negotiated for itself. It holds minor cement production assets in Thailand and Bangladesh that it is selling to Siam City Cement for US$53m. These include a 0.8Mt/yr integrated cement plant in Saraburi, Thailand and a 0.52Mt/yr cement grinding plant in Madangonj, Bangladesh. Unfortunately for Cemex it purchased the Saraburi plant for US$77m in 2001 from Saraburi Cement making it a loss of at least US$24m.

A minority sale of shares in its Philippines assets is more promising. The group runs two integrated cement plants in the country, the Solid Cement Plant in Rizal and the APO Cement Plant in Cebu with a combined cement production capacity of 6.23Mt/yr and a new 1.5Mt/yr production line on the way at Solid Cement also. Local media estimate that the sale could earn Cemex as much as US$850m from the booming market. The Cement Manufacturer's Association of the Philippines reported that cement sales volumes grew by 14.3% to 24.4Mt in 2015 with more growth predicted for 2016.

The credit amendment and asset sales of US$0.9bn may give Cemex the breathing room it requires to keep the creditors at bay for a while longer. It originally refinanced its debts in 2009 at the height of the financial crisis to keep the business running until the markets picked up again. They haven’t. A question that might be legitimately asked at Cemex’s analyst day later this week, on 17 March 2016, is this: when is Cemex going to seriously tackle its debts? As the situation continues the group may end up devoting more time to managing its debts than it will to actually making cement and other building products.

Cemex trumpeted last week that it had returned to positive net income for the first time in six years in its fourth quarter results for 2015. In effect the multinational building materials company was saying it is putting its house in order following taking on too much debt in the late 2000s. Similar reassuring noises have repeatedly been made as it has cut its debts down since that time.

The figure Cemex was shouting about this time was its controlling interest net income or the net income attributable to the controlling shareholder. It has risen to a gain of US$75m after being negative, or in loss, since 2010. In that year the sting from the financial crash in 2008 caused havoc and net sales for the company hit a low of US$14bn, having been at over US$20bn in the boom times of 2007 and 2008.

Meanwhile, the company has been steadily whittling away at its total debt reducing it down to just US$15.3bn in 2015. This is a massive figure given that its total equity was US$9.5bn in 2015.

By comparison, Lafarge was reporting a net debt of Euro9.3bn in 2014 compared to a total equity of Euro17.3bn. Its debt-to-equity ratio was far smaller than Cemex’s despite being perceived as the weaker partner financially going into the merger with Holcim in 2015. Unsurprisingly, it was news in August 2015 when Cemex refinanced a bank loan agreement for a US$15bn debt that was previously renegotiated in 2009. Everyone is watching Cemex’s debts keenly.

Against this financial backdrop Cemex’s cement business has been steadily producing fairly static levels of cement since 2009. It 2015 it has reported that it produced 66Mt. However, net sales fell in 2015 by 8% year-on-year to US$14bn, a disappointing result following sales growth since 2012. Fernando A Gonzalez, Cemex’s Chief Executive Officer, blamed it on a ‘challenging’ macroeconomic environment.

Notably overall net sales have been down in Mexico, Northern Europe and Central and South America in 2015. Although Cemex hasn’t released cement sales volumes, volumes fell by 3% in Northern Europe, 2% in its Mediterranean region and 4% in Central and South America in 2015. Thankfully, growth continued to pick up the US, bolstered by housing and infrastructure spending. The Philippines has remained a powerhouse in cement consumption in Asia.

Reviewing Cemex’s expansion projects in 2015 suggest muted capital expenditure with a focus on upgrades and side projects rather than clinker production growth. Such announcements included projects in Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, Colombia and Mexico. The exception was in the Philippines where a full-on US$300m project including a new 1.5Mt/yr plant was announced in May 2015. Given the surging cement volume sales in the country this is likely a safe investment.

As discussed previously in this column and elsewhere Cemex has suffered from high debts at exactly the time its major international rivals have started to merge. At the same time its Chinese rivals in terms of production capacity have undergone similar capacity consolidation as part of state mandated capacity reduction initiatives. This has left Cemex between the mega-cement producers like LafargeHoclim and HeidelbergCement and the up-and-comers such as Eurocement or Votorantim.

Now, its reliance on markets in the Americas it hitting a roadblock from reducing growth south of the US as global commodity prices tumble and economies suffer. It couldn’t have happened at a worse time for the company. Bar the odd bright spot such as the US and the Philippines it seems that all Cemex can do is wait it out.

San Miguel Corporation has upped the pace of its capacity expansion this week to a US$1bn investment towards five new 2Mt/yr cement plants in the Philippines. The announcement builds on its previous plans to build two plants for US$800m. At that time construction had already begun at subsidiary Northern Cement's plant in Pangasinan and Quezon. Plants in Bulacan, Cebu and Davao have now joined the list for completion in 2017.

The scale of this expansion is vast considering that the Philippines has 17 active cement plants with a total integrated production capacity of 24.6Mt/yr. San Miguel president and COO Ramon Ang's comments to media that if there were an oversupply of cement the market would correct itself in a couple of years may sound flippant to anyone who isn't the head of a multi-billion dollar corporation. However, if achieved it will propel the San Miguel subsidiaries from the country's fourth largest cement producer to its largest.

However each of the other major producers also have their own expansion plan in various stages of completion. Holcim Philippines announced US$40m plans in May 2015 to expand its production capacity to 10Mt/yr by the end of 2016, mainly through reviving existing projects. Cemex announced plans in May 2015 to spend US$300m towards building a new 1.5Mt/yr integrated line at its Solid Plant. Lafarge Republic had plans in April 2015 to raise its cement output through the opening of grinding plants at its Rizal and Bulacan cement plants. The former was opened in April 2015 but this is the one plant that hasn't been acquired by CRH following the sale of Lafarge Republic in the run-up to the LafargeHolcim merger. The latter was last reported due for opening in December 2015.

The big change in the Philippine cement industry in 2015 has been the merger of Lafarge and Holcim to form LafargeHolcim. Given that Lafarge Republic and Holcim Philippines held over 55% of the country's production capacity before the merger, it was inevitable that they would be forced to sell off assets. In the end CRH picked up most of Lafarge Republic's cement assets bar the Teresa Plant in Rizal, which stayed with Holcim. The merger has skewed the market towards one clear leader, LafargeHolcim (9.5Mt/yr), followed by Cemex (4.73Mt/yr) and CRH (4.19Mt/yr) with similarly sized cement production bases. These producers are then chased by San Miguel (2.15Mt/yr) and the other smaller firms. If San Miguel succeeds in its expansion strategy then the market will change once again.

Cement sales rose by 11.1% to 11.9Mt in the first half of 2015 according to the Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines (CeMAP). They attributed this growth to strong construction activity helped by increases in government infrastructure spending. Alongside this, gross domestic product (GDP) is predicted to rise by 6% in 2015 and 6.3% in 2016 by the Asian Development Bank. Another promising sign for development came from a study by Antoinette Rosete of the University of Santo Tomas which forecast that cement demand would meet 27Mt/yr. Capacity utilisation rates rose to 85% from 68% in 2014 according to Department of Trade and Industry data.

With this kind of encouragement, no wonder San Miguel is betting on such a large expansion project. If Rosete's forecast and capacity utilisation rates hold then the Philippines might need a capacity base of around 36Mt/yr. San Miguel's growth will fill that gap.

Of course other players might have their own ideas about giving away market share. LafargeHolcim and Cemex are likely to be saddled with debt or existing projects. CRH meanwhile is the wildcard as its expansion strategy is opaque. In recent years it has seemed to focus on acquisitions over building its own projects. The Euro5.2bn the company has spent on buying Lafarge and Holcim assets this year seems likely to slow down investment on any internal development plans. However CRH is bringing in local partner Aboitiz in the Philipines to help with a US$400m loan.

The Philippines is clearly an exciting market for the cement industry at the moment. One consequence of the current situation is that it may signal what CRH's global intentions are following the LafargeHolcim merger. If it decides or is able to start building new capacity then it may reveal the start of a new phase for the Ireland-based multinational.

In early 2014 the top of the global cement producer charts looked very different to how it does today. The big four multinationals, Lafarge, Holcim, HeidelbergCement and Cemex, were clearly out in front and ahead of the rest of the global top 10. While there was discrepancy in their sizes, the largest, Lafarge (224Mt/yr) had just over twice the cement capacity of fourth-placed Cemex (95Mt/yr), with Holcim (218Mt/yr) and HeidelbergCement (122Mt/yr) between these extremes.¹ With an impressive 659Mt/yr of capacity between them, these four accounted for just shy of half of global cement capacity outside of China.

However, as those with even a passing interest in the cement sector will know, this is no longer the case. The merger between Lafarge and Holcim and the subsequent acquisition of Italcementi by HeidelbergCement has stretched out the range of the top producers significantly. Today LafargeHolcim has around 340Mt/yr of installed capacity and HeidelbergCement 200Mt/yr. Meanwhile Cemex is still 'stuck in the 90s,' with a capacity of around 92Mt/yr following the sale of its Croatian cement assets last week. The Mexican 'giant' is now almost a quarter of the size of LafargeHolcim. What does this mean for the world's number three (excluding Chinese producers) and what might the future hold?

Well... the old adage goes that you have to move forward to stand still. However, Cemex has not moved forward over the past two years, meaning that is hasn't kept up the pace with its immediate rivals. It hasn't been able to, hemmed in by the debt that it took on from its poorly-timed acquisition of Rinker in 2007. Indeed, Cemex is looking to contract further, with aims to shed a further Euro600 - 1100m of non-core assets in 2015.² Against improved positions at LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement, Cemex increasingly looks like an 'Americas specialist' rather than a full-blown multinational. A stake in Cemex LatAm Holdings is up for sale, but the sale of more cement plants may also be on the way. This is all being done to improve Cemex's investment grade rating from B-plus, four grades below investment grade.

If Cemex does have to shed further physical assets on the ground, it is very unlikely that it would chose to do so in the Americas, where it is a very major player. It is number one in Mexico, third in the US and well-postitioned in numerous growth markets in Central America. If push comes to shove, it is far more likely that it would sell assets that are further from home. These are in Europe, the Middle East and the Far East.

Cemex has 43% of its production capacity outside the Americas. Certain assets, such as those in Thailand, Bangladesh and the Philippines, may be appealing to CRH, which is already set to acquire LafargeHolcim divestments there and is known to be considering other purchases in the region.³ Cemex also owns several cement plants in better-performing EU economies like Germany and the UK. In Germany, the company has already completed a small downsizing exercise by selling its Kollenbach plant to Holcim (LafargeHolcim). Meanwhile, Cemex UK is a major player in the UK, where the Competition Commission has recently been very keen to increase the number of producers. Elsewhere, Cemex's share in Assuit Cement in Egypt could provide much needed revenue, as could its small stake in the Emirati markets.

Thinking more radically, and in keeping with the current trend of mega-mergers and large-scale acquisitions, could Cemex find itself the target of the next global cement mega-merger / acquisition? Certainly, its strength in Central and South America completely complements HeidelbergCement's lack of coverage here, making a future 'HeidelbergCemex' a potential winner.

The other option, if/when Cemex regains its investment rating, would be for Cemex to acquire or merge with a company further down the list of global cement produers. Africa is an obvious target, with rapid growth and a lack of Cemex assets at present. A foreigner buying up Dangote is probably out of the question, but PPC would be an interesting target, as would increasingly isolated Brazilian producers that could help shore up Cemex's South American position.

If the past 18 months in the global cement industry have shown anything, it is that we should expect the unexpected. It will be very interesting to see how all players, both large and small, will react to the recent goings on in the rest of 2015 and beyond.

1. 1. Saunders A.; 'Top 75 Cement Producers,' in Global Cement Magazine – December 2013. Epsom, UK, December 2013.

1. 2. Reuters website, 'Mexico's Cemex could sell part of business to pay down debt: CEO,' 10 February 2015. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/11/us-mexico-cemex-idUSKBN0LF05320150211.

1. 3. Global Cement website, 'CRH investment spend set to pass Euro7bn with South Korea cement deal,' 12 June 2015, http://www.globalcement.com/news/item/3721-crh-investment-spend-set-to-pass-euro7bn-with-south-korea-cement-deal.

This week saw the announcement that Cemex and Holcim are both upping their stakes in Nicaragua to increase production. The companies have stated that they expect cement demand to grow significantly in the near future.

Holcim has started work on a US$10m project to increase production by 30% to 400,000t/yr at its Nagarote grinding plant. A second expansion phase will see production raised another 30%. Cemex, for its part, is building a US$55m, 440,000t/yr grinding plant in Ciudad Sandino. Completion is expected by 2017.

These new developments will make significant additions to Nicaragua's cement industry. Currently, it consists of one Cemex-owned 600,000t/yr integrated plant and one Holcim-owned 300,000t/yr grinding plant.

Nicargua has the dubious honour of being Central America's least developed economy and one of the poorest among all of the Americas. In recent years, however, its economy has grown dramatically, with significant expansion in the construction and mining sectors, indicating that Holcim and Cemex are right to bet on Nicargua. Indeed, late in 2014 president of the High Council of Private Enterprise, José Adán Aguerri said that the country had a significant cement shortage and was currently importing from Mexico and Colombia to meet its needs.

Driving cement demand in Nicaragua is the residential housing sector boosted by the growing population, much-needed infrastructure projects and the country's most controversial project, the Nicaragua Grand Canal. The canal will be, according to local media, a 'commercial waterway that will reshape commercial shipping, reap a windfall for investors and haul one of the hemisphere's poorest nations out of poverty.' Heavily backed by Chinese investors, it is deeply unpopular with industry experts and locals alike. There have been lots of questions as to whether there is enough demand for the canal, while its construction will divert scant resources, particularly water, away from agriculture, the country's main industry. The project will, however, contribute significantly to cement demand until its completion, which is expected in 2019.

So is Nicaragua the place to be? Its near-future economic and construction sector outlooks certainly look strong, but the cement industry relies heavily on long-term infrastructure plans, which are sorely lacking. Additionally, none of Nicaragua's neighbouring countries have noteworthy cement deficits. This means that export market opportunities from Nicaragua are in short supply. Nicaragua's future depends overwhelmingly on its leaders' long term-planning abilities...

Czech Republic/Slovakia: The sale of Holcim's operations in the Czech Republic and Slovakia has prompted a series of management changes to Cemex's operations in those countries.

Hermann Dietrich has been appointed as Cemex's vice president for strategic planning in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Henning Weber has become the vice president for operation and technology at the cement division, Mariusz Kostowski has been named as the trade and logistics director with the cement division and Justus Geiseler has been appointed as the BSO director. Lubos Merunka and Hana Fidrova, who have been named as the head of the stone aggregate division and the company lawyer respectively, both came to Cemex from Holcim after the asset handover.

Cemex's general director in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Peter Dajko, has stated that the company is not planning any additional personnel changes in the foreseeable future.

Indonesia: The Indonesian government has selected PT Semen Indonesia president director Dwi Soetjipto as the next president director and CEO of the country's state-owned oil and gas firm PT Pertamina, following interim chief Muhamed Husen, who took over on 1 October 2014 from Karen Agustiawan. As of 28 November 2014, Soetjitpto is leading Pertamina.

Soetjipto managed PT Semen Indonesia's troubled unit, PT Semen Padang, between 2003 and 2005, where his success in overcoming widespread worker's opposition to the government's plan to sell a controlling stake in the firm to Mexico's Cemex landed him the top post in Semen Indonesia.

Soetjipto gained a Bachelor Degree in Engineering from the Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology in Surabaya, East Java, a Masters in Management from the Andalas University in West Sumatra and a PhD in Management from the University of Indonesia in Depok, West Java.

The creation of Lafarge Africa, the clearance of the Cemex West acquisition by Holcim in Germany and the sale of Lafarge's assets in Ecuador all hint at the scale of business that LafargeHolcim will command when it comes into existence. Despite the media saturation of coverage on the merger the implications in developing markets are still worthwhile exploring, especially in Latin American and Africa.

In sub-Saharan Africa, Lafarge is merging its cement companies in Nigeria and South Africa to create Lafarge Africa. Analysts Exotix have described the move as, 'the birth of a leading player on a continental scale'. Indeed, if Lafarge wanted to grow Lafarge Africa to encompass its many other African cement producing subsidiaries it could hold at least 17 integrated cement plants (including plants in north Africa) with a cement production capacity of at least 40Mt/yr in 10 countries and infrastructure in others. That puts it head-to-head with Dangote's plans to meet 40Mt/yr by the end of 2014 through its many expansion projects. Following these two market leaders would come South African-based cement producer PPC with its expansion plans around the continent.

Meanwhile across the Atlantic in Latin America the Lafarge-Holcim merger threatens Cemex. Unlike in Africa where Lafarge has a ubiquitous but disparate presence, Lafarge and Holcim's cement assets are more evenly scattered around the Caribbean, Central and South America. In terms of cement production capacity Cemex and Lafarge-Holcim will both have around 30Mt/yr, with Cemex just in front. The next biggest cement producers in Latin America will be Votorantim (present mainly in Brazil) with just over 20Mt/yr and Cementos Argos (Columbia) with about the same. This includes some new acquisitions in the United States for the growing Columbian producer. In Ecuador Lafarge and Holcim held over 50% of the market share, hence the sale by Lafarge of its assets to Union Andina de Cementos for US$553m.

Depending on how well the merger integrates the two companies, corals the various subsidiaries and implements strategic thinking the merger could just create business as usual with little disruption to the existing order. Yet in both continents the merger has the opportunity to shake up and reinvigorate the cement markets as existing players suddenly discover serious new competition and react accordingly.

Africa has a population of 1.1bn and it had a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$2320/capita in 2013. South America had a population of 359m in 2010 and a GDP of US$8929/capita. This compares to US$27,250/capita in Europe and US$54,152/capita in the US. The economic development potential for each continent is humongous. Post-merger, LafargeHolcim will be first or second in line for some of this potential in Latin America and Africa.

Mexico: Further management changes have been implemented at Cemex, including the inclusion of six executive vice presidents, instead of five. The six vice presidents will report directly to the director general, Fernando Gonzalez, with the position of executive vice president of finance to be filled by Jose Antonio Gonzalez.

Juan Pablo San Agustín will continue as executive vice president of strategic planning and business development, while Maher Al-Haffar has been appointed as executive vice president of investor relations, corporate communications and public affairs. Luis Hernandez will continue as executive vice president of organisation and human resources, as well as security and administrative services, while he will also be responsible for processes, IT, innovation, global service organisation (GSO), the securities funding corporation (VMO) and the Neoris project. Ramiro Villarreal will remain head of legal affairs, taking up the position of executive vice president of legal, while he will continue as secretary of the board of directors. Mauricio Doehner has been appointed as executive vice president of corporate affairs and business risk management.

No changes have been made at the regional director level. Cemex executives have also expressed a desire to recover investment grade at the firm, lost during the crisis in 2009.