Displaying items by tag: data

Europe: Data from Eurosac shows that estimated paper sack deliveries for the cement sector in Europe grew slightly year-on-year to 0.18Mt in 2018. Growth for other building materials with the exception of cement grew faster at 1.8% to 0.23Mt. Paper sack deliveries from Eurosac members increased by 1.8% to 1.82 million units from 1.80 million units. Eurosac represents over three quarters of European paper sack producers operating in 20 countries.

Kenya: Data from the Kenya Bureau of Statistics shows that cement production fell by 6% year-on-year to 1.46Mt in the first quarter of 2019 from 1.55Mt in the same period in 2018. Cement consumption dropped by 3% to 1.46Mt from 1.50Mt. Cement consumption previously grew by 2.8% year-on-year to 5.9Mt in 2018 from 5.8Mt in 2017. However, production fell by 2.6% to 6.07Mt from 6.23Mt. Imports increased by around 50% to 23,000t but exports decreased by 63% to 0.14Mt from 0.39Mt, mainly due to a major drop in deliveries to Uganda and Tanzania.

The Malaysian Competition Commission took the rather ominous step this week of saying it was taking extra care to watch the cement industry. Ouch! It said that had taken note of recent price rises by both cement and concrete producers and that it was working with the Ministry of Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs as it met with the sector. It also said it was well aware of the recent merger between YTL and Lafarge, “...which had led to the market being more concentrated at the upstream and downstream level.”

The background here is that at least one unnamed cement producer announced a price hike of 40% in mid-June 2019. End-users panicked and the local press took up the story. The Cement and Concrete Association of Malaysia then defended price rises in general, when it was asked for comment, due to all sorts of mounting input costs. Although, to be fair, to the association the Malaysian Competition Commission acknowledged the price pressures the industry was under due to input costs in a report it issued in 2017.

Back in the present, the government became involved and Saifuddin Nasution Ismai, the head of the Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Ministry, calmed the situation down by saying that producers had agreed not to raise their prices after all and that any future planned price adjustments would be ‘discussed’ with the authorities first. Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng then followed this up with calls for an investigation into prices in Sarawak state in Eastern Malaysia. In response, Suhadi Sulaiman, the chief executive officer (CEO) of CMS Cement, batted this straight back by blaming industry mergers in Peninsular Malaysia and saying the company had no plans ‘anytime soon’ to raise its prices.

As the Malaysian Competition Commission kindly pointed out, this entire furore took place about a month on from the competition of LafargeHolcim’s divestment of its local subsidiary to YTL. The commission agreed to the acquisition of Lafarge Malaysia by YTL knowing that it was giving YTL ownership of over half of the country’s production capacity. With this in mind it is unsurprising that the commission might have wanted to look tough in the face of even a whiff of market impropriety, whether it was real or not.

The problem, as the Malaysian Competition Commission alluded to in its statement, is that the local industry suffers from production overcapacity. On top of this local demand has been contracting since 2015. The country has 11 integrated cement plants with a production capacity of 27.1Mt/yr, according to Global Cement Directory 2019 data. Production hit a high of 24.7Mt in 2015 and then fell year-on-year to 18.8Mt in 2017. Data from the Cement and Concrete Association of Malaysia painted a worse picture taking into account both integrated and grinding capacity reporting an estimated production capacity utilisation rate of just 59% in 2016. Lafarge Malaysia reported a loss before tax of US$97.7m at the end of 2018 as well as declining revenue. Shortly thereafter it announced it was leaving the country, as well as neighbouring Singapore.

In theory the buyout by YTL should have been one step closer to solving Malaysia’s overcapacity woes as either it gained synergies through merging the companies or shut down some of its plants. Certainly, the system appears to be working at some level, as the proposed 40% price rise hasn’t happened. Yet, if the government is reacting to voters rather than the market it could prolong the capacity-demand gap indefinitely. Under these conditions LafargeHolcim’s decision to exit South-East Asia may prove prescient.

Azerbaijan: Cement demand has dropped ‘significantly’ due to a slowdown in economic growth and the lack of implementation of major projects. The country’s three cement plants are producing more than enough cement to cover local demand, according to the Trend News Agency. Concrete plants are also operating below full production capacity. Despite this downturn, growth has been noted in the housing sector. Producers are now focusing on export markets.

Egypt: Cement sales fell by 7.7% year-on-year to 10.9Mt in the first quarter of 2019. Data from the Central Bank of Egypt shows that production fell by 8.1% to 11.2Mt, according to Mubasher.

Burkina Faso: Harouna Kaboré, the Minister of Commerce, Industry and Handicraft, has inaugurated a new mill at Cimburkina’s cement grinding plant at Kossodo in Ouagadougou. By installing the new mill the unit has doubled it production capacity to 2Mt/yr, according to the Sidwaya newspaper. The upgrade cost US$25m.

François Sangline, the director general of the subsidiary of Germany’s HeidelbergCement, said that the 2000t limestone silo feeds the production line consisting of two 150t/hr cement grinding mills. This is followed by a 120t/hr bagging unit. Sangline noted that the country’s cement consumption of 2.5Mt/yr is below the domestic cement production capacity of 6Mt/yr. Due to this he lobbied the government to protect local production against imports and fraud.

Eurasian Economic Union: The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) produced 12Mt of cement in the first quarter of 2019. Armenia produced 68,000t and imported 47,200t. Belarus produced 0.84Mt, imported 79,500t and exported 0.26Mt. Kyrgyzstan produced 0.35Mt, imported 38,600t and exported 0.15Mt. Kazakhstan produced 1.47Mt, imported 0.11Mt and exported 0.33Mt. Russia produced 9.3Mt, imported 0.18Mt and exported 0.17Mt. Usually production in the first quarter represents 16 – 19% of annual production. Consumption of cement in the EEU region is expected to grow by 2.5% year-on-year in 2019.

Talk of US tariffs on imports from Mexico was not troubling the National Chamber of Cement (CANACEM) this week. Director general Yanina Navarro pointed out to local media that Mexico only exports 1.42Mt or 3.4% of its total production of 44Mt/yr to its northern neighbour. This is a little higher than the 1.04Mt reported by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 2018, although that figure is believed to have underestimated imports to El Paso district in Texas. Mexico was the fifth largest exporter of hydraulic cement and clinker to the US behind Canada, Turkey, China and Greece.

Commentators pointed out that Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua (GCC) might be affected more that other Mexican producers as two of its plants are close to the border at Samalayuca and Juárez in Chihuahua. However, GCC operates five plants in the US. Cemex also has a plant near the US border at Ensenada in Baja California. Yet it’s the fourth largest producer in the US by integrated production capacity. If either company had its export markets seriously disrupted by any border duties they could likely focus on production in the US to compensate.

Once again this is similar to the situation with the proposed border wall where, although President Donald Trump wanted Mexico to pay, it would have been Mexican companies benefiting the most from any construction boom. This was also the case with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The international structure of many of the larger Mexican cement producers insulates them from these kinds of political and trade disputes.

Mexican producers shouldn’t be too complacent though. Tariffs are likely to play havoc with integrated supply chains as in the car industry. Building materials will probably be affected less so but that 1.42Mt export figure is more than the production capacity of many individual Mexican cement plants. Taking away this export market will drag on the industry’s utilisation rate and alternate destinations may be hard to find. Note the trouble Mexico has had distributing its products in Peru. The Supreme Court there upheld a fine this week on UNACEM for trying to block the distribution of Cemex’s brand of cement in 2014. Also, although Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products may not have much of an impact on building materials, USGS data shows that Chinese imports of cement to the US fell by 27% year-on-year to 0.76Mt in the six months to the end of February 2019. Similar reductions could await Mexico’s exporters.

The general consensus from the free market press is that tariffs will ultimately hurt both economies. In agreement the Portland Cement Association (PCA) published a market report in April 2018 on the effects of tariffs on US cement consumption in the wake of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from the European Union (EU), Canada and Mexico. The summary was that all forms of tariff – from minor to a global trade war – would likely result in reduced US cement consumption to varying degrees due to slower economic growth. A full-scale set of tariffs on Mexican imports is likely to induce similar consequences.

Dominican Republic: Alexander Medina Herasme, the director of the General Directorate of Mining, says that the country exported grey cement worth US$72.3m in 2018, according to the El Caribe newspaper. The nation has five integrated cement plants and two grinding plants.

Mexico/US: Yanina Navarro, the general director of the National Chamber of Cement (CANACEM), says that Mexican cement producers are not worried by US tariffs on imports. Mexico exports 1.42Mt or 3.4% of its total production of 44Mt/yr to its neighbour, according to the EL Financiero newspaper. Data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) placed Mexico at the fifth largest exporter of cement to the US after Canada, Turkey, China and Greece.

Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua (GCC) could be affected more than other Mexican producers by any tariffs as 17% of its production is exported to the US. Mainly this covers production from plants at Samalayuca and Juárez in Chihuahua. Hoevever, GCC operates five plants in the US, which would enable it to reduce the potential negative affects of tariffs.