Global Cement News

What’s long, thin and has already exported more than 20Mt of cement in 2018? The answer is Vietnam, which reported this week that it exported 20.1Mt of cement between 1 January 2018 and 31 August 2018. That’s 106 - 112% of its annual ‘target’ in just eight months and around the same amount as it claims to have exported during the whole of 2017. Total cement production in Vietnam was 63.9Mt between January and August 2018, meaning that the country has exported 31.3% of the cement it made over this period. Vietnam itself consumed ‘just’ 43.8Mt. The government target for Vietnamese cement consumption during 2018 is around 65 - 66Mt. That’s basically the amount it has already made.

From a market-led mind-set these targets seem fairly large, huge even, especially the export target. Indeed the concept of such national targets is in itself an alien concept. In most of the world, imports and exports are results of market supply and demand trends, not drivers prescribed by the government.

The reasons behind this apparent desire to export these very large volumes of cement are, therefore, probably best understood from within Vietnam, and we won’t speculate too much on them here. However, Vietnam is clearly determined to continue to produce ever more cement than it can use. In what other country could a major government-owned producer export more than 70% of the cement it makes? In the first half of 2018 Vicem did just that, shipping 11.7Mt of cement overseas from the 14.2Mt that it made.

In 2017 Vietnam’s export target was 15Mt. It ended up smashing this to the tune of 5Mt, 33% more than the target. At the current rate the sector looks like it could overshoot even more spectacularly this year, perhaps hitting as much as 30Mt of cement exports in 2018. This is more than a big European country like Germany can produce! It certainly sounds like a lot but… is it really an exceptional number?

Looking at data from World’s Top Exports (WTEx), which we advise delving into, it seems that this would be a very high number indeed. It reports that a total of 166.6Mt of cement were exported internationally in 2017. It reports that the top exporter was not, as you may by this point have been primed to suggest, Vietnam. It wasn’t even China, as the former number one was bumped into second place (12.91Mt) by Thailand (13.03Mt). Turkey was third (12.79Mt), with Japan fourth (11.93Mt) and Vietnam was listed as fifth (9.53Mt).

All of these biggest exporters except Turkey are in the Far East, an area swamped with cheap cement. China’s average export selling price according to WTEx was US$45/t, against a global average of US$55/t. Thailand undercut it by US$3/t at US$42/t, perhaps explaining its rise to the top spot. Turkey’s average export price was also US$42/t, although it is located in a region that has a lot of saturated markets and others that are growing rapidly. Its average export distance was second only to China’s. Vietnam’s average cement export price was US$51/t, higher than the others. This does not tie in with the apparent rise in exports so far in 2018. This price may have since fallen. Surprisingly, Japan had the lowest export price of the top five exporters by volume at just US$30/t in 2017.

So, to re-answer the question posed two paragraphs above, 30Mt is a very high number indeed. But you’ll have spotted the large discrepancy between WTEx’s 9.53Mt figure for Vietnam, which relies on reciprocal import partner data, and the government’s official line of 21Mt for 2017. One is tempted to ask where the other 50% of the exports reported by the Vietnamese actually ended up, especially given that WTEx reports a US$1.5bn difference in the value of exports and imports across the year. Imports were valued at US$8.8bn but exports were valued at US$10.3bn.

The mystery destination of all that cement, real or imagined, could be the topic of an entire separate column. What appears to be the case at present, is that rampant Vietnamese cement overcapacity is here to stay. The country, as well as Japan, Turkey, Thailand et. al., could stand to benefit in the short term, as China acts ever more aggressively to end its own oversupply situation. However, there could come a time when it has to take its foot off the gas. There are no signs of that yet though.

Canada: Kate Strachan has become the new plant manager of the Lafarge Exshaw plant in Alberta, the largest in Canada. She took up the position in June 2018.

Born and raised in Warrington, UK, Strachan moved to Canada with her family when she was 10 years old, following her father’s job in marine engineering. She graduated from the University of Victoria with a mechanical engineering degree in 2000 before joining Lafarge Canada’s Richmond plant in the mechanical engineering department. Over the next 12 years she moved up through the mechanical department, eventually becoming the maintenance coordinator and then production coordinator at the plant.

After holding that position for several years she was promoted to production manager for Lafarge’s Sugar Creek plant in Missouri, US, but returned to Canada in less than a year to assist with the Exshaw plant’s US$600m expansion. “The commissioning of a new plant line is a once in a lifetime opportunity, so it was something I couldn’t really pass up,” said Strachan.

After spending nearly two years as the plant’s production manager, Strachan assumed her new role as plant manager in June 2018, taking over from Jim Bachmann, who was the plant manager since 2015.

China: Wu Xu has been appointed as the chairman of Taiyuan Lionhead Cement. The 54-year old Chinese national is a graduate from the Chongqing Construction Workers College, he holds a master's degree in business administration from Chongqing University and he has attended the China Europe International Business School. From 1982 to 1991 Xu was the chief engineer of Chongqing Building Management Station and was the executive vice general manager of China Chongqing International for Economy & Technology Cooperation in the early 1990s. In 1994 he founded Sincere Group and has since been its chairman and president.

Ukraine: Vitaly Gorgoliuk has been appointed as the new chief executive officer (CEO) of Eurocement Group Ukraine. He succeeds Denis Galchev. Eurocement Group Ukraine is a subsidiary of Russia’s Eurocement Group.

The world’s largest cement producer China National Building Material (CNBM) released its half-year results this week and the figures were generally good. Despite falling production, the state-owned company has managed to raise its prices year-on-year to generate significant sales revenue and earnings increases. As usual the level of detail was fairly light, although not much lighter than some non-Chinese producers on the international market. The key point was that cement production fell by 5% year-on-year to 143Mt. This was due to poor demand, mounting environmental regulations and rising input costs.

The half-year report was significant because it is the first financial report from the company since its merger with China National Materials (Sinoma) completed in early May 2018. Just like the reports of LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement following mergers or acquisitions, CNBM has seen a boost to its performance. Further gains from scale and synergy are expected. The union has indisputably created the world’s biggest cement producer, putting aside any European or American cries of over-calculation of production capacity on the part of their Chinese rivals. However, size comes with particular problems.

Placed in a wider context CNBM and its owners, the Chinese government, are attempting to manage a wind-down from the biggest construction boom in human history. National Bureau of Statistics data show that sales of cement fell by 10% to 984Mt in the first half of 2018 from 1.1Bnt in the same period in 2017. So, falling cement production volumes are not a surprise. What is curious, though, is how cement prices have appeared to rise in a country with massive production overcapacity. Each of CNBM’s cement producing subsidiaries reported that its average selling price of cement grew year-on-year.

Graph 1: Sales of cement in China, 2014 – 2018. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Regional variation could explain some of this in a country as large as China and similar trends can be observed in India with its own diverse internal markets. The local focus on environmental regulations offers another explanation. In June 2018 the government’s State Council issued regulations to reduce the production capacity of construction materials, set up emission limits for pollution, implement peak shifting of production and to establish a ‘strict’ accountability mechanism for all of this. CNBM has followed these directives with its ‘Price – Cost – Profit’ (PCP) strategy and all of its subsidiaries have conformed to this. What is not covered in the report is whether there is a negative financial effect of peak shifting and other environmental regulations and how bad this is.

It’s easy to dismiss the performance of a state-controlled company but the enlarged CNBM is facing a unique set of challenges. It appears to be off to a great start but both its scale and its challenges are unprecedented. In its outlook for the second half of 2018 it said that the, “contradiction of overcapacity in the industry has not been changed fundamentally.” This suggests that, although cement prices and profits have held up so far, there is no guarantee that this situation will continue.