Global Cement News

Saudi Arabia: The management board of Najran Cement has approved the appointment of Mohammed bin Mani bin Sultan Aba al-Ala as board chairman and managing director, with a three-year term. The company also named Daifullah al-Ghamidi as deputy board chairman.

In the January 2013 issue of Global Cement Magazine, we featured a review of the Ethiopian cement industry. At the time we were hopeful with respect to the country's future cement demand, buoyed along by Ethiopia's own bold targets for development of the sector. It seemed only a matter of time before international and regional producers went to Ethiopia and cashed in on a cement plant-building bonanza.

Ethiopia's government is keen to further develop Ethiopia's cities and infrastructure and wants to increase its per-capita cement consumption from 35kg/yr at present to ~300kg/yr in the period to 2017. To do this, it is encouraging the cement sector to swell from its current capacity (7.4Mt/yr integrated capacity with additional grinding capability) to over 27Mt/yr by the same year. At the same time, the country has banned cement imports, a bold statement of intent designed to protect its own growing industry.

This week, we have learned that the country is hitting its bold production targets, largely without assistance from outside players. However, it seems that Ethiopia is incapable of consuming the volumes of cement that have been produced. As of 12 August 2013, the Ministry of Industry announced that Ethiopia made 12Mt of cement in the year to 7 July 2013, more than double the 5.4Mt/yr that it demanded over the same period. This revelation casts the government's future predictions for rapid cement demand growth in serious doubt.

While it takes effort to picture Ethiopia producing 27Mt/yr of cement by 2017, such rapid development is happening in west Africa, where Nigeria's Dangote Cement is achieving 'regional-giant' status.

However, it would take a very great leap of imagination to believe that Ethiopia could consume 27Mt/yr in 2017, five times what it does today, even with the development of major projects like the Millennium Renaissance Dam (a US$4.2bn hydroelectric project), major city and road-building projects and a rapidly growing population. Its cement capacity would have to grow by 4.9Mt/yr, representing average year-on-year cement demand growth of 52.5%/yr. Even with a cement industry the size of Ethiopia's, this represents almost impossible growth. To support this increase in demand, GDP/capita, which is often closely correlated to cement demand, would probably also have to raise fivefold, from US$374 to US$1870. This difference would take it from the bottom 20% of African nations well into the top third by this measure.

If this over-production trend continues, it does not bode well for Ethiopia's domestic cement industry. While exports may appear attractive, options are limited. Kenya to the south has a larger and more well-established cement industry, Somalia has major economic and security drawbacks and Ethiopia's relationships with Eritrea and Djibouti, both of which declared independence from Ethiopia, are tense. With no coast of its own, maritime exports will be difficult, especially with low-cost cement flowing from India, Pakistan and Iran. South Sudan, with its lack of cement production facilities, plentiful oil and major trade/border dispute with Sudan, could offer a small market for Ethiopian exports, but not enough to satisfy a ~20Mt/yr overcapacity.

Read Global Cement's January 2013 review of the Ethiopian cement industry here.

Vietnam: Hoang Mai Cement has announced that Dang Tang Cuong retired as deputy general director from 1 August 2013.

Germany: Dr Michael Mutz has been appointed the head of cement sales at Aumund Fördertechnik. In his new role Mutz will oversee sales of both new equipment and retrofits. The new position will be in addition to Mutz's exisiting job as head of the Mineral Processing division (previously Mining & Minerals), which he assumed in April 2012. Aumund specialises in conveying and storage for the cement industry

Weston is off. The 'will-they, won't they' of the New Zealand cement industry took a more decisive turn this week with the announcement that Holcim New Zealand intends to import cement instead.

Once Holcim's existing cement plant at Westport winds down there will be no more indigenous cement production on New Zealand's South Island. Golden Bay Cement on North Island will be left as the nation's sole cement producer. Instead Holcim now plans to build US$80m on an import terminal and related infrastructure.

Given a previous price tag of US$400m for the Weston project, switching to an import strategy makes sense for Holcim which has had a hard time of late with a poor first quarter following a tough year in 2012. Despite the benefits that the construction sector in New Zealand has seen with the rebuilding following the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, Holcim is thinking of its wider strategy. Although, as one of the largest multinational cement producers, Holcim has a wide supply chain for clinker, Australia reported poor sales in 2012 and it would be an obvious hub to keep New Zealand topped up with sufficient product.

Last week's doubts about the Indian cement market – when Holcim announced major business restructuring in India – may also have an effect as Vicat too has reported problems in the country this week. The question to ask when Holcim releases its half-year results in mid-August 2013 is how much excess capacity does the company have?

Coincidentally, importing cement is one issue that has come up in the UK Competition Commission's on-going investigation into the UK cement industry. An Irish cement importer has alleged that unnamed European cement producers have blocked his attempts to import cement to Ireland. The UK Competition Commission will continue its investigation until late 2013. Whilst we are not suggesting that the New Zealand cement industry has any problems of this kind, as the market adjusts to a higher level of imports it will encounter new challenges.