The news this week that GSO Capital Partners has patched together a group of investors to recapitalise Giant Cement and its owner Cementos Portland Valderrivas (CPV) has been a long time coming.
Giant may be based in the US but CPV is Spanish. Here cement production fell by 28% year-on-year for the first half of 2012. For its 2012 forecast Oficemen, the country's domestic producers association, forecast in July that consumption will fall by 25% compared to 2011, to 15Mt/yr, representing a drop of 73% from a high of 56Mt/yr in 2007. Potentially the Spanish cement industry could regress to a per capita consumption of only 325kg/capita, figures not seen in the country for nearly 50 years! It has already hit a 48-year low.
In other words it is the perfect time for cash-rich foreign firms to pick up a bargain. Yet the question that should be asked, especially by anybody else thinking of investing in highly indebted European cement assets, is how do investors expect to make any return?
Simply waiting for the market to improve is one strategy for those who can afford it. According to the Global Cement Directory 2012, Spain has 38 cement plants with a capacity of 48Mt/yr. Of this the big players – Cemex, Holcim, Lafarge and CPV – comprise 28Mt/yr. Even if the smaller producers stopped producing cement overnight the big producers would still have the capacity to produce twice as much cement as is currently required.
However, the focus on the CPV subsidiary Giant Cement is telling. The owner of CPV, Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas SA (FCC), was originally reported as trying to sell Giant by March 2012. With the US market starting to pick up, Giant would make an attractive acquisition. FCC's last attempt to sell Giant was, however, delayed by CPV's debt.
With a Giant sale delivering some return to the GSO Capital Partners investors, followed up by further on-going debt repayment from CPV, the only loser would be the future development of the Spanish cement industry outside of that done by the multinationals. Heavily indebted European cement producers with profitable overseas assets must be looking very attractive indeed to international investment firms. The bargain hunt has begun.
