Displaying items by tag: Portland Cement Association

To mark the end of the calendar year we’re going to round up some of the major news stories from the cement industry in 2017. Like last year this piece also complements the corresponding article ‘The global cement industry in 2017’ in the December 2017 issue of Global Cement Magazine. Remember, this is just one view of the year's events. If you think we've missed anything important let us know via LinkedIn, Twitter or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Recovery in Europe
2017 was the year that the European cement industry finally had something to shout about after a lost decade since the financial crash of 2007. The good news was led by a revival in cement consumption in 2016 that looks set to have continued in 2017. Prospects in Germany and Spain feel similar and a series of mergers and acquisitions have taken place in Italy suggesting that investors believe that the market is about to recover there too. Sure, Brexit is looming but as contacts have told Global Cement staff throughout the year, if the British want to damage their economy, that’s their business.

Renewal and recrimination at LafargeHolcim
Lafarge’s conduct in Syria during the civil war has cost its successor company LafargeHolcim dear, with the loss of its chief executive officer (CEO) Eric Olsen and potential reputational damage if the on-going investigation in Paris finds fault. At the time of writing Olsen, former Lafarge CEO Bruno Lafont and the former deputy managing director for operations Christian Herraul are all being questioned by the inquiry into the affair as it attempts to determine who knew what and when. LafargeHolcim has drawn a line under the debacle by appointing outsider Jan Jenisch as its new CEO in mid-2017. He has made changes to the group’s management structure that were announced this week but has he done enough? If anything truly ‘explosive’ emerges from the investigation, the question for anyone across the world buying LafargeHolcim’s products may be whether or not they want to finance extremism through their purchase.

US doesn’t build wall but does okay anyway
The US Portland Cement Association (PCA) may keep downgrading its forecasts of cement consumption growth but the local industry is doing fairly well anyway. All sorts of cement producers with a presence in the US have benefited from the market, despite extreme weather events like Hurricane Irma. President Donald Trump may not have delivered on his infrastructure development promises or built his fabled wall yet but his recently-approved tax reforms are likely to benefit the profits of cement producers. The decision by Ireland’s CRH to buy Ash Grove Cement in September 2017 may remove the largest domestically-owned producer from US hands but it shows confidence in the market and heralds the continued creeping growth of the building materials company into an international empire.

South America shows promise… just don’t mention Brazil
Countries like Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela may not be performing to expectations but other countries south of the Darian Gap, have been growing their respective cement industries. The leader here is Argentina that is riding a full-scale construction boom with capital investment chasing it from the producers. Bolivia is following a decade of growth although this may be starting to slow somewhat. Chile appears to be realigning itself to take in more exports. And finally, Brazil may also be starting to return to growth too. Although cement sales were continuing to fall year-on-year in the first nine months of 2017 the rate has been slowing. Local producer Votorantim also reported improved market conditions at home.

India stares into the demand gap
UltraTech Cement finally managed to buy six cement plants and five grinding plants from Jaiprakash Associates for US$2.5bn in 2017. The acquisition marked the end of the long-running deal between the companies and what may be a new phase in further integration in the Indian industry. In September 2017 the Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA) complained that the sector had 100Mt/yr of excess production capacity out of a total 425Mt/yr. The government’s demonetisation policy sank cement production growth in late 2016 and production has struggled to improve since then. Some estimates expect growth to return in around 2020 as the demand gap shrivels. Further merger and acquisition activity can only help until then, although the current government flip-flopping over a petcoke ban and import duties may get in the way.

China restructures with an eye on overseas market
As discussed last week the mind-bogglingly massive merger between China National Building Material (CNBM) and China National Materials (Sinoma) is proceeding with the press equivalent of radio silence. If one trusts the company figures then the largest cement producer in the world will get even bigger following completion. Once the big Chinese producers start building lots of overseas plants then the implications of combining a major producer with a major plant builder may become clear outside of China. Alongside this the buzzword on the Chinese cement company balance sheets this year have been a major rollout of co-processing at plants and a policy of ‘peak shifting’ or simply shutting off production at selected plants in the winter months. Somehow despite all of this the official figures suggest that cement production is still growing in China.

The African mega deal that wasn’t
The prospective bidding war for South Africa’s PPC has turned out to be a bust. A low offer was made in September 2017 by a Canadian investment firm with the aim of merging PPC with local rival AfriSam. Vague expressions of interest from the usual suspects followed over the following months before everything fizzled out. What the dickens was going on? A difference of opinion between the board and shareholders? A poor market in South Africa giving everyone the jitters? If any readers know, please get in touch. PPC’s poor showing at home mirrors Dangote Cement’s travails. Both companies have suffered domestically whilst going full tilt elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Indonesia about to pick up?
And finally, a report from Fitch Ratings this week suggests that growth in Indonesia is set to pick up once again. The market dragged down HeidelbergCement’s mid-year financial results as cement consumption dropped in the same period. Like India, Indonesia faces a consumption-capacity mismatch. However, with annual consumption poised to grow at over 6%, the time to close that gap will narrow. Some good news to end the year with.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 3 January 2018. In the meantime Merry Christmas and a have Happy New Year!

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) board of directors has appointed Michael Ireland president and chief executive officer (CEO). He replaces former President and CEO James Toscas.

In addition, the PCA board of directors elected the following new members: Greg Hale from Capitol Aggregates; Steve Regis, Bruce Shafer and Mark Wagy from CalPortland Company; Enrique Rozas from Drake Cement and Mike Ireland of PCA.

US: CTLGroup has appointed Brian Schudiske as its president and chief executive officer (CEO). He succeeds Timothy Tonyan.

Schudiske has held leadership roles over the last 20 years, in areas such as manufacturing, supply chain, operations, and engineering management. He holds a Bachelor of Science and Master of Science in Environmental & Public Health from the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire. Prior to joining CTLGroup, Schudiske was General Manager, US Materials and Manufacturing, for SGS North America where he provided operational and sales leadership for the Metallurgical Engineering and Testing business in the US and was credited for delivering new business as a result of innovative growth and sales strategies.

Tonyan will remain as chief operating officer and continue to focus his efforts on firm-wide business and client development, project management and leadership promotion.

CTLGroup is a subsidiary of the Portland Cement Association. It operates as a consulting and testing company for a variety of markets including the cement industry.

Ed Sullivan, the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) chief economist was in tub-thumbing mood last week at the IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Conference in Calgary, Canada. The headline figures that the PCA put out in a press release was a forecast of a 3.5% rise in cement consumption in 2018 and 2019. Yet behind this in a stirring speech given to a cement industry crowd craving growth was a tale of riches ahead. The audience lapped it up. There was only one problem: nothing has really happened yet to make any if this happen. It always seems to be riches ahead. As Sullivan freely put it, “Trump policies will impact cement… But we don’t know what they are!”

Sullivan broke down his forecast into three sections that hinged around President Trump’s desired policy changes kicking in from about the third quarter of 2019. At this point, owing to lack of information about what the Trump administration actually wants to do, Sullivan freely broke open the assumptions. These covered issues such as a tax reform, infrastructure budgeting, immigration reforms and more. As he explained it all of these issues interact, so that reducing taxes potentially pushes national debt up making infrastructure spending harder. Owing to the lack of specifics from the current administration though Sullivan was forced to resort to the more solid plans of Democratic presidential contenders Hillary Clinton and even Bernie Saunders for nuggets of information of how ‘a government’ might act. For example, he used a breakdown of Saunders’s intended infrastructure spend to try and predict how Trump’s policies could play out. Increases in highway building from the overall infrastructure spend in this context being good news for the cement industry. And as for Sullivan’s view on the impact of the Trump border wall: ‘overrated’.

The new forecasts for 2018 and 2019 appear to be retrenchment given that the PCA was predicting growth of 4% for 2016 in the middle of that year. It subsequently reduced its estimate to 2.7% for 2016 by December 2016 after the presidential election. However its figures for 2017 and 2018 have increased since the December forecast. Sullivan predicted that growth will start to surpass 5% in 2020 once Trump’s policies have time to make waves. The crescendo of his presentation at the IEEE-IAS/PCA was a prognostication of an extra requirement of 14Mt of cement in 2021 and 2022. Sullivan topped this off by saying that, “We have the supply infrastructure in place right now.” However, some delegates informally questioned afterwards where that cement might actually come from with mass international clinker capacity waiting in the wings from places like Vietnam and new cement plants such as the McInnis Cement plant in Quebec expressively targeted at the US import market about to come on line.

Sullivan has a tricky job trying to predict what will happen next in the US cement industry and sometimes his forecasts seems to change as much as the weather that cement company financial reports often blame their poor returns on. This column knows a little bit how he feels. As Sullivan’s biography points out he’s been cited by the Chicago Federal Reserve as the most accurate forecaster regarding economic growth among 30 top economists. In short he’s the best we’ve got. But Donald Trump’s approach to government so far has made his job exponentially harder. As we’ve said more than a few times when describing the US cement market, the basis are there for growth but something is holding back faster growth. Will Trump be the catalyst to break the 5% growth barrier? Looks like we’ll have to wait until late 2019 to find out.

Elsewhere, the conference brought together a large cross-section of the North American industry. Surprisingly perhaps given the change in leadership at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) several parts of the speaker and discussion programme focused on coping with National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP), carbon tax schemes in Canada and California and practical carbon capture methods at the plant level. The key here seemed to be a piecemeal approach that may not necessarily be at odds with less government environmental legislation. Next year’s outing in Nashville, Tennessee looks set to be an even more important event, especially if more on Trump's infrastructure plans become known.

2017 has started more uncertainly for the US cement industry than 2016 did according to the latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Cement shipment data from just two months, January and February 2017, can only present a limited impression of the state of the industry. Yet the key trend to look for in Graph 1 is the growth in Midwestern US states against a decline in the Western ones. Previously in 2016 this region’s shipments sunk below those in the West in December and didn’t overtake them until the spring. This time round they’ve stuck closely and overtaken them already in February 2017.

Graph 1: Portland and blended cement shipments by US Census Bureau region for 2016 to February 2017. Source: USGS.

The Midwest’s cement shipments jumped by 21% year-on-year to 2.2Mt for those first two months. Buzzi Unicem concurred with this picture in the Midwest with its first quarter financial results this week, reporting a boost in deliveries in the region. HeidelbergCement agreed, reporting sales volumes increases in the north of the country and a decrease in the West. In that region the USGS data shows an 8% fall in shipments to 2.2Mt. HeidelbergCement blamed heavy rain and flooding in California and Oregon as the cause of the problems. Another potential reason that the USGS hints at are increasing imports of cement that it says have been rising faster than sales. For example, imports of cement to the US as a whole grew by 23.9% year-on-year to 0.81Mt in February 2017.

Overall though the situation for the larger cement producers has been subdued. Many of them blamed good weather in the first quarter of 2016 giving them a hard quarter to measure against in 2017. For example, LafargeHolcim’s sales volumes of cement fell by 4.5% in North America although it did report sales growth off the back of cement pricing and cost controls. HeidelbergCement may have looked good on paper following its integration of the Italcementi/Essroc assets but its cement volumes only grew by 1% in the period. Cemex too reported a similar scenario with falling sales volumes of 5% but growing sales revenue.

To put this in perspective, as the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) chief economist Ed Sullivan says in the May 2017 issue of Global Cement Magazine, cement production in the US grew in 2016 and it is expected to continue growing in 2017 and 2018. Just like the start of 2016 (see GCW251) the potential for US construction growth in the year ahead is a quietly confident one but it isn’t assured.

Cemex points out that housing starts rose by 8% in the first quarter of 2017, as did construction spending in the industrial and commercial sector. However, it says that infrastructure spending fell by 9% in February 2017. Indeed this last point is an important one given that one of the major Trump campaign pledges in the 2016 presidential campaign was to build more infrastructure. As commentators in Washington DC including the PCA have asked: where is the Bill? Rightly, the PCA are not letting the lawmakers forget this during ‘Infrastructure week’ as the issue is discussed. The US cement industry needs this.

For further information on the US cement industry take a look at the May 2017 issue of Global Cement Magazine

This week the US Portland Cement Association (PCA) revised down its forecast for the rise in cement consumption in 2016 to 2.7% from 4%. It also lowered its prediction for 2017, blaming political uncertainty around the presidential election, inflation and slower construction activity. Global Cement Magazine editorial director Robert McCaffrey pointed out on LinkedIn that he was surprised by the revision down in 2017 given the rhetoric by president-elect Donald Trump to invest in large infrastructure projects.

Clearly the PCA is playing it cautious as a politically unknown entity, Trump, slides from campaign trail promises to executive power delivery. Backing them up are the latest figures from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) that show that both cement production and shipments fell slightly in the third quarter of 2016. In the quarter before the election in November 2016 the cement market slowed down. The hard bit is working out why. As we pointed out in a review of the US cement industry in the May 2016 issue of Global Cement Magazine the PCA had previously downgraded its forecast in 2016 due to economic uncertainty despite strong fundamentals for the construction industry. Then, as now, the great hope for the US cement industry was infrastructure spending down the pipeline, at that time the Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act. At this point it doesn’t seem to have had much of an effect.

Industrial and economic forecasters aren’t the only ones who have a hard time of it in 2016. Political pollsters have also been caught out. Surprises came from the UK’s decision to leave the European Union and the election of Trump. Neither result was widely expected in the media. As explained above, should Trump make good on his building plans then if any cement company based its plans on a forecast dependent on a Hilary Clinton win then it may have lost money.

The power of forecasts has even greater potential effects in developing markets where the corresponding financial risks and rewards are higher. After all, why would any cement company invest tens of millions of US dollars for a cement grinding plant or hundreds of millions for an integrated plant unless there was some whiff of a return on investment?

This then leads to the problems Dangote has reportedly been having with its plant in Tanzania. Amidst a flurry of local media speculation in late November 2016 about why its Mtwara plant had a temporary production shutdown, Dangote’s country chief clarified that it was due to technical problems. It then emerged this week that Dangote’s owner Aliko Dangote met with President John Magufuli to agree a gas supply agreement to the plant. The point here being that even if the market conditions and demographics seems conducive to profit, as is the case in Tanzania, if the local government changes any incentives agreed at the planning stage then everything can change. At this point forecasts based on data become moot.

There’s a great quote from the US pollster Nate Silver that goes, “The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.” In terms of election campaigns run at a time of upheaval that might mean listening to people more than looking at polling data. In terms of a cement company operating in Africa that might mean fostering links with the local government to ensure no sudden policy changes catch you off-guard. And in the US that might just mean cement company analysts have to follow Donald Trump’s Twitter account.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has elected Allen Hamblen, president and chief executive officer of CalPortland Company, as chairman of the PCA board of directors, and Tom Beck, president of Continental Cement Company, was elected vice chairman. Hamblen takes over PCA board chairmanship from John Stull, chief executive officer of US Cement for LafargeHolcim US.

Prior to 2006, Hamblen was president and chief executive officer of Glacier Northwest and has worked with CalPortland and its predecessor for 31 years. He is a former chairman of the National Ready Mixed Concrete Association, a trustee of the Ready Mixed Concrete Research and Education Foundation and is a former president of the Washington Aggregates and Concrete Association.

Beck has served as senior vice president at Continental Cement from 2005 to 2013, and as vice president of sales and marketing from 1996 to 2005. He is also a former chairman of the American Concrete Paving Association.

Delegates at the IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Industry Technical Conference in Dallas, Texas this week may have smiles upon their faces if the following data is correct. The US cement industry has rocketed into 2016 with solid sales growth. Multinational cement producer balance sheets are being propped up by the good news and data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) backs it up.

LafargeHolcim led the pack with an 18.9% bounce in its cement sales volumes to 3.4Mt in the first quarter of 2016. Most of this rise was driven by high demand for building materials in the US supported by a ‘vigorous’ housing market and positive infrastructure spending. HeidelbergCement followed this up with a 13.8% in its cement sales volumes to 2.5Mt in North America. Cemex reported a 8% rise, Buzzi Unicem reported a 16.3% rise, Martin Marietta reported a 13.8% rise and Cementos Argos reported a 47.3% rise.

Graph 1: Portland and blended cement shipments by US Census Bureau region for 2016 to February 2016. Source: USGS

USGS data shows this ‘bounce’ in cement sales shipments at the start of 2016 quite well. Although the publicly released preliminary data only goes as far as February 2016 you can clearly see an up-tick at the start of the year. By comparison shipments in each of the main US census regions fell from January to February 2015 before picking up as the spring started. The main reason for this was the harsh winter in 2015. Overall, cement volumes rose by 11.6% year-on-year for the mainland US in January and February 2016. These were led by Maine, New York and Illinois in the Northeast and Midwest, presumably recovering from the previous winter, before a load of southern states, including Northern Texas and South Carolina, kicked in with growth of above 20%. As an aside it is also worth pointing out the seasonal variation between the Midwest and the West. The Midwest has a more pronounced summer production peak most likely due to the colder winters the region endures.

The reason for that bounce at the start of 2016 is important because it determines whether the US cement party will continue or not. A few of the cement producers in their financial reports mentioned that sales were up due to pent up demand following the harsh winter in 2015. HeidelbergCement gave a much more considered assessment than its rivals. They pointed out that, despite the growth in construction markets, economic growth slowed in the country in the quarter. This fits more in line with the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) more cautious assessment that the construction industry in the US should be growing but that an uncertain economic outlook is messing with this. It seems that the US cement industry has growth for the moment but that certainty that this will continue is far more elusive. This week’s news that plans have been scrapped to build a third kiln at the Lafarge North America Joppa cement plant just adds to this feeling.

For further information on the US cement industry take a look at the May 2016 issue of Global Cement Magazine.

Striking news from Libya this week with the announcement that an investor with international backing wants to buy the majority stake in the Libyan Cement Company.

Libya holdings owner Ahmed Ben Halim is in the process of buying out the Austrian Group Asamer that originally bought a majority share for US$145m back in 2008. Most of the remaining share was owned by the Economic and Social Development Fund. Taking over the company now seems bold from a European perspective or Ahmed Ben Halim got a very good price. No financial information regarding the deal has been made public.

Libya has remained politically unstable since the civil war in 2011. According to the Libyan Herald, following the war a strike at the Libyan Cement Company's plants for lost wages stopped production. Since then two of the three cement plants the company runs in east Libya near Benghazi have remained shut due to their proximity to fighting with the Ansar Al-Sharia militia. Before the civil war in 2011 the Libyan Cement Company had a combined cement production capacity of 6Mt/yr almost half the USGS estimated production for the entire country in that year.

The Libyan Cement Company's plants are all located in the east of the country under the nominal control of the Council of Deputies based in Tobruk. Its two plants in Benghazi have remained shut due to their proximity to fighting with the Ansar Al-Sharia militia. A third plant near Derna has also had security issues. Halim told the Financial Times that he was not 'crazy' to be investing at this time. "We have a long-term strategic plan" he said, "that Libya's going to rebuild its infrastructure. And a key element of this is cement." If he can hold out until the rebuilding starts then he may just be right.

Meanwhile across the border in Egypt, Minister of Supply Khaled Hanafy announced this week that cement prices had remained 'stable' for the fifth month in row. Some commentators placed improved energy supply security at the heart of this situation allowing producers to build up inventory. However, given the situation in Libya, it is worth considering what will happen once Libyan demand for cement does pick up both in competition for energy supplies like coal and a keener export market.

Finally, our editorial director Dr Robert McCaffrey was at the IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Conference in Toronto, Canada this week. Here's his snapshot of PCA economist Ed Sullivan's forecast for future US cement supply and demand.

Ed Sullivan's forecast for future US cement supply and demand, at IEEE in Toronto. pic.twitter.com/RUoT7uHGtg

— Robert McCaffrey (@DrRobMcCaffrey) April 28, 2015

The UK London Underground has 'mind the gap' as its well-known warning phrase to prevent passengers falling between the platform and the trains when boarding. The favourable supply gap Ed Sullivan is talking about in US will be one cement producers will definitely not want to miss.

If you try visiting the website of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) this week you are going to be disappointed.

As part of the on-going US federal government shutdown the site has been marked as 'unavailable'. Anyone in search of US cement data and a raft of other national and international statistics will have to wait. Ditto the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Although its website is still live, its last tweet on 1 October 2013 was, 'The federal government is currently shut down.'

Some cement producers in the US may be relieved that the EPA is on a hiatus. However if you cast your mind back to the Portland Cement Associations' (PCA) optimistic growth forecast in September 2013 you may remember the following from PCA chief economist Ed Sullivan. "Assuming Congress has learned its lesson from the fiscal cliff and will take a more rational approach with the upcoming debt limit discussions, political uncertainty and its adverse impact on the economy is expected to dissipate."

Whoops.

The construction industry will be watching carefully to see how planned future infrastructure spending emerges from the debacle. If it gets cut in the horse-trading then US cement consumption growth will take a blow. Meanwhile, if the residential construction market takes a knock due to all the uncertainty and general reduction of money in the economy from federal employees not working then cement consumption gets hit immediately. Hence Sullivan's get-out comments about Congress.

Perhaps what will really concentrate minds on the fragile state of the US construction economy is if a Chinese company buys into the cement industry, as is happening elsewhere around the world. As reported this week, the state-owned Chinese aerospace and defence company AVIC International made an offer to shareholders to take over German cement plant builder KHD Humboldt Wedag.

The US federal government needs to get back to work.