Perella Weinberg Partners hires LafargeHolcim co-chairman Wolfgang Reitzle in advisory role
Written by Global Cement staffUK: Investment boutique Perella Weinberg Partners has hired LafargeHolcim co-chairman Wolfgang Reitzle as an advisory partner.
Reitzle, also a former chief executive of the German gas maker Linde and chairman of the supervisory board of German car supplier Continental, will provide counsel in a senior role to the investment firm and its clients, especially in Europe, according to Perella Weinberg. He will continue in his role at LafargeHolcim.
Reitzle has had previous dealings with Perella Weinberg Partners; Holcim appointed Perella Weinberg banker Dietrich Becker to renegotiate the terms of its merger with Lafarge. "Reitzle has an exceptional track record of successfully managing growth across a variety of industries," said Joseph Perella, co-founder and chairman of Perella Weinberg Partners.
Brazil: COO of Intercement Ricardo Lima has been appointed as company president. He replaces Jose Edison Franco. Lima and Franco have made a strategic company plan, which includes a US$250m investment in a new cement plant in Mozambique.
Ireland's CRH this week submitted a binding bid for various Indian assets of LafargeHolcim that will be sold by the newly-formed group as a condition of its formation. CRH will compete for the assets with HeidelbergCement and Barings Private Equity, which sold its stake in the same assets to Lafarge India prior to the merger. According to the Irish Examiner, the scale of the bids is in the region of US$600 - 800m. On the back-burner is another deal that could see CRH snap up a 74% stake in Tongyang Cement and Energy in South Korea.
These moves are consistent with CRH's new-found commitment to rapid expansion into new markets and an apparent desire to become a far bigger player in the global cement industry. It is in line with the sentiment expressed by its CEO Albert Manifold back in February 2015, when he stated in a letter to shareholders that CRH had given 'hell or high water commitments to Lafarge and Holcim' regarding its earlier Euro6.5bn purchase of assets as part of the LafargeHolcim merger. At that point CRH appeared almost 'over committed' to the huge deal, with some analysts asking whether or not CRH had paid too much.
Let's stop a minute to look at where CRH finds itself. Europe, its main cement market, is still under siege from a general lack of investment, both private and public. The UK is likely to perform well, although an ongoing Competition Enquiry at Irish Cement is an unwelcome distraction. CRH's new eastern European ventures are all in fairly small markets. Poland, in which CRH operates Grupa Ozarow, appears to act as the model for these acquisitions, but they remain at risk from the prolonged Eurozone crisis.
In Brazil, another new market, CRH is 'up against it,' with massive competition from Votorantim and InterCement, smaller local players and LafargeHolcim. A decline in cement demand here so far in 2015 year-on-year is not a good omen. Neither is Votorantim's decision this week to turn one of its plants into a distribution centre due to continued low demand.
In Canada CRH will gain 3.1Mt/yr of former Holcim capacity, around 20% of that market's capacity. This, along with its 2.7Mt/yr acquisition in the Philippines, probably represents CRH's best opportunities out of its newly-acquired assets.
However, with the confirmation that it intends to invest in 5Mt/yr of former Lafarge assets in India, a market not exactly enjoying buoyant conditions at present, CRH appears to be further exposing itself to another 'sub-optimal' market. We recently reported on the 100Mt/yr of capacity that is sitting idle in India at present , hardly a situation to instil confidence in a new entrant.
Whether CRH will be forced to leave some of these markets, buy into others or otherwise shuffle its cement assets to better suit the world economy remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the aforementioned mega-deal, LafargeHolcim gave the first indications of how it will go about re-branding in various markets this week. While a new brand will be introduced in markets with 'a balanced overlap' of former Lafarge and Holcim assets, countries without overlap will see existing Lafarge or Holcim 'brands' become 'endorsed' by LafargeHolcim. In countries with unbalanced overlap, either Lafarge or Holcim will be the endorsed brand.
Of course, in every market that it has bought a LafargeHolcim asset, CRH will also have to re-brand. So far it has announced that its operations in France will be branded as 'Orsima' from 1 August 2015. No elaboration on how this name was derived has been provided, but let's hope that there are not too many other new names to remember!
Africa: Lafarge Africa has appointed Peter Hoddinott as the new group managing director / CEO. The former CEO, Guillaume Roux, will remain on the board as a director, according to the Kuwait News Agency
Hoddinott is a British mining engineer and started his business career in the mines of southern Africa before joining Blue Circle in 1988. Prior to this appointment, he worked as a lecturer in Imperial College of Science and Technology, London University in 1983 - 1988. While at Blue Circle, he worked in the Technical Centre and also managed the UK cement plants before going to the Philippines as CEO in 1999. When Lafarge took over Blue Circle, he stayed in Manila to integrate the two companies, leaving in 2003 to become regional president for Lafarge in Latin America. In 2007, Hoddinott became regional president for Western Europe (cement), including Morocco. In 2012, he became executive vice president (energy and strategic sourcing) responsible for worldwide energy strategy and sourcing of Lafarge's US$12bn/yr externally sourced inputs. Hoddinott was appointed group executive vice president (performance). He is currently president of Cembureau.
Subsidy or scandal? Looking at the Amma Cement Scheme
Written by David Perilli, Global CementTamil Nadu's subsidised cement scheme attracted negative attention this week when a prominent Indian politician called for it to be investigated. PMK party founder S Ramadoss alleged in a statement covered by Indian press that cement from the scheme is either being not being procured at the levels the state government are declaring or it is being sold on the black market.
Without investigating Ramadoss' comments too deeply in this article the Amma scheme does deserve looking at along with the pressures that have created it in the Indian cement market. The scheme takes its name from the nickname, Amma or mother, of the current Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu J Jayalalithaa. It follows previous populist subsidy schemes such as Amma Vegetables, Amma Water and Amma Theatres. As such it is exactly the kind of initiative you might expect a rival politician might criticise.
The scheme was created in mid-2014 to cope with fluctuating cement prices in the state. At that time Tamil Nadu consumed 1.7 – 1.8Mt/month of cement and around 400,000 – 450,000t was supplied by Andhra Pradesh. Subsequently prices rose in the neighbouring state, the purchases from Andhra Pradesh fell to 150,000 – 300,000t/month and the price went up in Tamil Nadu. The Amma Cement Scheme was created in response. It was intended to purchase 200,000t/month from private manufacturers. This would then be sold in eligibility bands with limits on the number of cement bags that could be bought dependent on size and type of project.
When the scheme launched in January 2015 the Times of India saw it as a politically canny move that would benefit middle-income rural citizens who could afford to build their own homes. Urban residents are less likely to build their own homes and so they wouldn't use the scheme as much. For example, at the start of the scheme sales in one rural district massively overtook sales in the city of Chennai.
Looking nationally, in July 2015 the Cement Manufacturers' Association (CMA) cried out that 100Mt/yr of India's production capacity was not being used due to supply and demand mismatching. It placed the value of this 'dead investment' at US$8.66bn. At present, the CMA places installed capacity at 380Mt/yr and utilisation at 275Mt/yr (70%). Previously utilisation was 94% in 2007 – 2008. Locally, Global Cement Magazine placed cement production capacity in Tamil Nadu at 33.9Mt/yr at the start of 2015. Demand was recorded at 20Mt in 2014, giving the state a capacity utilisation of 60%.
Cement demand was reported down in the southern states of India in 2014. Producers subsequently cut production to hold prices and stem their losses. With the CMA hoping for national infrastructure and housing projects to whip up demand generally, it seems possible that producers have little incentive to provide cement for the Amma scheme. One economist the Times of India quoted wondered whether the private producers would continue to sell cement to the state government at the necessary volumes. Sure enough, one of Ramadoss' criticisms of the scheme is that it may not be procuring the targeted volumes. If this is the case then the state government will have to pay more for their cement to hit the volumes they want.
Aggregate Industries names Joe Hudson as managing director of cement and concrete products
Written by Global Cement staffUK: Aggregate Industries' new cement division will be led by Joe Hudson as managing director of cement and concrete products. He joins Aggregate Industries from Lafarge, where he has worked in a number of key functional and operational roles since 2001. Hudson was heavily involved in preparations for the LafargeHolcim merger as group senior vice president for organisation and development at Lafarge and has experience of running a cement business, having previously worked as managing director / CEO for Lafarge Wapco Plc in Nigeria.
At today's official launch of LafargeHolcim, CEO Eric Olsen was asked to comment on the group's position in Iran. It doesn't have one, but that won't necessarily always be the case given events in Austria this week.
On Tuesday 14 July 2015, Iran and the P5+1 countries (US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany) agreed an historic deal to limit Iranian nuclear activity in return for a significant lifting of existing trade sanctions at a meeting in Vienna. The country's cement industry will be delighted by this agreement. The talks, in progress since 2006, could mark what has been termed a 'new chapter' in relations between Iran and the rest of the world by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. For his part, US President Barack Obama stated that the deal would ensure that 'every pathway to a nuclear weapon is cut off' for Iran, but critics from the US, Iran, Israel and elsewhere, suggest that cutting all routes will not be possible. They are alarmed and have warned that the deal could lead to an arms race between Iran and Saudi Arabia, amid increasing animosity in the Middle East.
While the geopolitical implications of the deal are huge, the lifting of trade restrictions will greatly improve Iran's ability to deal internationally. This includes allowing increased oil exports. An article by Reuters anticipates that Iranian oil production could increase drastically from around 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) at present, possibly to its former peak of 3mbpd. (What this might do to the global oil price could be the subject of an entirely separate column). The easing of banking restrictions will make Iranian products more competitive and increase trade in many sectors.
Against this backdrop sits the Iranian cement industry, the world's third or fourth largest by production in 2014, depending on your source. It has an incredible 84.4Mt/yr of cement production capacity in a country of 77.5 million people. Assuming that it could produce and consume all of that cement at home, this would represent consumption of around 1100kg/capita/yr, far above the 600-800kg/capita/yr rate that is typical of a rapidly-developing economy.
Of course, Iran has not been consuming anything like this level of cement recently. According to figures released by its Employers Guild Association this week, Iran made 66.4Mt of cement in its 1393 calendar year, which ended on 21 March 2015. Assuming the above capacity, this gives Iran a cement utilisation capacity of around 78%.
Much of the cement made in Iran was exported in 2014 and so far in 2015. The country exported an incredible 18.4Mt/yr of cement and clinker in the year to 21 March 2015, up from 18.8Mt a year earlier. A large amount of this cement was available at low cost, to the extent that Iran has been accused (along with Pakistan) of dumping cement in the Middle East and East Africa. (Pakistani producers have even pointed out that Iranian cement is making inroads into the Afghan market, more traditionally a target for exports from Pakistan).
So what might happen to the cement trade dynamic in the region? Some suggest that the easing of sanctions can only increase the potential for Iranian cement imports in the region. Trade should become easier, facilitating exports.
Indeed, this is a factor, but it is only part of the equation. Instead, it is likely that, having earned foreign exchange via increased oil sales, Iran will be able to spend more at home. Reuters anticipates that demand for steel and cement will skyrocket as the country undertakes much-needed construction and infrastructure works. This situation would be similar to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. How Saudi Arabia reacts to this, both politically and in terms of cement trade, will be of high interest in the region and around the world.
Instead of increasing cement exports, the effect of the lifting of sanctions may decrease them. This will surely be welcome news to local producers currently being undercut in East Africa, as well as exporters in Pakistan, India and elsewhere. Could Pakistan even find itself exporting to Iran? If a US-Iran nuclear deal is possible, anything can happen...
Kenyan cement producers kicked off this week about Chinese cement imports for the Standard Gauge Railway Project in Kenya. Local producers, including ARM Cement and Lafarge, have asked the Kenya Railways Corporation to explain why the Chinese-backed project is importing cement. Project builders the China Rail & Bridge Corporation (CRBC) has imported 7000t of cement so far in 2015 according to Kenya Ports Authority data.
Project completion is planned for 2017 with a requirement of 1Mt of cement. If CRBC carried on this rate then, roughly, the project might only use 42,000t of imported cement if the import rate holds. This is less than 5% of the estimated requirement. However, cement imports increases into Kenya have stayed steady since 2012. Imports rose by 2000t from 2013 to 2014. CRBC's imports will stick out significantly in 2015.
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) data places Kenyan cement production at 5.8Mt in 2014, an increase of 16.3% from 5.1Mt in 2013. Production growth has been steadily building since the late 1990s with, more recently, a dip in the rate of growth in 2011 that has been 'corrected' as the growth has returned. Consumption has risen by 21.8% year-on-year to 5.2Mt in 2014 with imports also rising and exports dropping.
Imports for the railway project are duty free as ARM Cement Chief Executive Officer Pradeep Paunrana helpfully explained to Bloomberg. Producers have also recently upgraded their plants to specifically supply 52.5 grade cement to the project. Given this, it is unsurprising that local Kenyan producers, including ARM Cement and Lafarge, are complaining about this situation, especially given the increasingly pugnacious African response to foreign imports led by Dangote and companies in South Africa. Both ARM and Lafarge hold integrated plants and grinding plants in Nairobi and Mombasa. This is the route of the new railway line.
The backdrop to this is that the Chinese cement industry is struggling at home as it adjusts to lower construction rates and reduced cement production growth. Profits made by the Chinese cement industry fell by 67.6% year-on-year to US$521m for the first quarter of 2015, according to National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) statistics. At the same time the Shanghai Composite, China's principal stock market, has seen the value of its shares fall by 30% since June.
Although it is unclear where the cement imports in this particular row are coming from, informal or formal business links between large state controlled corporations such as a China's major cement producers will always be questioned by competitors outside of China for both genuine issues of competitiveness and simple attempts to claw more profit. If the Chinese cement producers are sufficiently spooked or they really start to lose money then what is to stop it asking a sister company building a large infrastructure project abroad to offer it some help? Or it might consider asking the Chinese bank providing 90% of the financing towards the US$3.8bn infrastructure project to force the Kenyan government to offer more concessions to foreign firms. Meanwhile one counter argument goes that Kenya has a growing construction market with a giant infrastructure project that may unlock the region's long-simmering low cement consumption per capita boom. The Kenyan government may face some difficult decisions ahead.
How will the Greek cement industry cope with the Greek debt crisis?
Written by David Perilli, Global CementThe Greek debt crisis directly hit the local cement industry on Tuesday 30 June 2015 when Titan Cement reported that it was unable to pay a dividend to its shareholders. The leading local cement producer blamed the capital controls introduced by the government.
It is worth looking at the effects on the domestic cement industry as the Eurozone bureaucracy and the Greek government play 'chicken' with each other while Greece starts the default process, having failed to pay the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) payment on 30 June 2015. Greece will now join a group, possibly even more select than the European Union, of countries that have failed to pay back the IMF, including current defaulters like Sudan and Zimbabwe.
A better comparison might be made with Argentina which defaulted upon its foreign debts in 2001. Its construction industry fell by 12% year-on-year in 2001 and by a further 30% in 2002. Cement consumption and cement production utilisation rates hit 23% in 2002. One key difference with Greece is that the country has had major financial difficulties for far longer than Argentina. Argentina ran into financial depression in 1998 and defaulted in 2001. Greece ran into financial trouble following the 2008 financial crisis and then received its first bailout in 2010.
As the capital controls show, even initial responses to the financial situations are impacting upon the standard transactions a limited company conducts. The Financial Times ran an article in May 2015 examining the potential effects on businesses of a debt default and Greek exit from the Eurozone (Grexit). In short, business and commerce will continue where possible reacting to whatever comes their way. For example, an olive oil producer reported switching to exports to make profits. Crucially though, another company interviewed, a construction contractor, worried about potential cuts to government or EU-led infrastructure projects.
As Titan reported in its first quarter results for 2015, its Greek market has been dependent on road building. In February 2014 Titan Cement reported its first improved operating results in seven years followed by profit in 2014 as a whole. The other major cement producers, Lafarge subsidiary Heracles General Cement and Italcementi subsidiary Halyps Cement, reported an improved construction market in 2014 with rising cement volumes. However, it was noted by Lafarge that it was developing exports to 'optimise kiln utilisation.' Titan also noted the benefits of exports in its first quarter report for 2015, focusing on a strengthening US Dollar versus the Euro. Given on-going events, one suspects there is going to be a lot more 'development' of this kind.
To set some sense of scale of the crisis Jim O'Neill, former head of economics at Goldman Sachs, famously calculated that, at the height of its growth, China created an economy the size of Greece's every three months. What happens next is down to the crystal balls of economists, although the path of least resistance now seems to be pointing at further default, departure from the Eurozone and Euro and further significant financial pain for Greece.
It looks likely that the local construction market will stay subdued and exports will offer a lifeline. How much the EU is prepared to let Greece default on its bills and then try and undercut its own over-capacity cement industries remains to be seen. However, since the main cement producers in Greece are all multinational outfits, it will afford them some flexibility in their strategy in coping with the fallout. Meanwhile a cement production capacity of around 14Mt/yr for a population of 11m suggests over capacity by European standards. If exports can't help then the situation looks grim.
UPDATE: Here is Global Cement's previous take on Greece from June 2012
Kenya: According to Business Daily, East African Portland Cement Company (EAPCC) has renewed its efforts to recruit a new COO after the candidates who applied to fill the new position in August 2014 'fell short' of the required qualifications. EAPCC has now re-advertised the position, which is expected to strengthen its governance structure.
The Athi River-based manufacturer first sought to recruit a COO and CFO in 2014 through consultancy PricewaterhouseCoopers. Kephar Tande, the company's managing director, said that the board deemed the applicants to be unqualified. "The first attempt in 2014 did not yield a suitable candidate from the shortlisted four, hence this new advertisement," said Tande. "This position is primarily required to improve the efficiency of our supply chain to make the company more competitive. We expect the position to be filled by August 2015."
EAPCC's current management executive structure is made up of heads of sections and divisions like financial management, research and development, internal audit and risk management, as well as strategy performance improvement. The new COO will be responsible for cement production operations, production engineering, product research and development, as well as sales and marketing.
EAPPC has not said whether it will re-advertise the CFO job, also a new position. The CFO is expected to streamline financial management at the company, which has recently faced accusations of having reported inaccurate accounts. "The position of CFO will be filled as soon as internal procedures are completed," said Tande.