Global Cement News

Back in the May 2016 issue of Global Cement Magazine we asked key people at the Portland Cement Association how they thought the US presidential election might affect the local cement industry. Wisely, for an advocacy organisation with offices in Washington DC, no one would be drawn, citing a lack of information. At that point it was still unclear who was going to be on the final ticket. However, we all missed a trick because one candidate, Donald Trump, had been talking about building ‘a border fence like you have never seen before’ since at least mid-2014. And that fence could potentially require a lot of cement.

Researchers at market analysts Bernstein’s sent a note to clients last week ahead of the Republican National Convention looking at the implications of if Donald Trump became president of the US and actually set out to build his 40ft high concrete wall between the US and Mexico. The result would be a 2.4Mt boost in demand for cement from cement producers near to the border. In terms of market demand Bernstein concluded that this would add over 1% to cement demand in both 2018 and 2019, a healthy ‘shot in the arm’ to the already pepped-up US cement industry, which is currently growing at around 5%/yr.

Map 1: Map of cement and ready-mix concrete plants near to the US - Mexico border. Source: Bernstein Materials Blast. Note – Bernstein does not show the Capitol Cement plant in San Antonio.

Needless to say, Bernstein’s calculations pile-drive assumptions into assumptions, atop of Trump’s political rhetoric. It bases its calculations on a border wall similar to the Israeli West Bank barrier built out of precast concrete panels. It also tries to model how much concrete and cement would be required depending on the differing height’s Trump has trumpeted at his rallies.

The kicker to this tongue-in-cheek analysis is that the construction company that stands to benefit the most from this infrastructure project is Mexican!

Cemex has significantly more cement plants and ready-mix concrete plants than any other company within a 200-mile zone either side of the border. Looking at integrated cement plants alone, it has six plants in the regions near to the proposed wall from the east and west coasts. Its nearest competitors, CalPortland with four plants and Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua with three plants, are more regionally based in the western US and Chihuahua state in Mexico. Clearly Cemex didn’t rate the chances of Donald Trump’s wall actually happening when it agreed to sell its Odessa cement plant to Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua in May 2016.

All of this goes to show that, wherever you stand on the Donald Trump presidency bid, if you manufacture cement near the US-Mexican border you might be working overtime if he (a) actually becomes president, (b) actually manages to start building his wall and (c) actually decides to make it using cement. Yet before anybody starts popping champagne corks consider this: there might also be unintended consequences for the cement sector. Restricting current legal and illegal migration trends from Mexico to the US might have a greater negative effect on the US cement industry, and the overall economy, than ordering one large infrastructure project. Working that one out is harder than a guesstimate of how much cement a border wall might consume. Probably best not to ask at this stage who might actually pay for the Great Wall of Donald Trump.

India: Rajesh Kapadia has resigned from Prism Cement as its chairman and non-executive, non-independent director. The resignation takes immediate effect. Kapadia cited poor health for his decision.

Another week and another massive Indian cement industry deal. This week Nirma has won the bidding for the assets of Lafarge India that LafargeHolcim is selling. Before we get too carried away though, the diversified conglomerate entered into a letter agreement with LafargeHolcim on 7 July 2016 to pay US$1.4bn for three cement plants and two grinding plants with a total cement production capacity of 11Mt/yr.

It is worth noting that this is only a letter agreement. LafargeHolcim signed one previously with Birla Corporation for some of the same assets in August 2015. Unfortunately, an ambiguous amendment to the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) (MMDR) Act struck in January 2015 made it unclear how easily mineral rights could be transferred with an industrial plant sale. After much likely internal squabbling Lafarge India said it was selling all of its assets in January 2016 followed by threats of legal action by Birla.

Some commentators in the Indian media have flagged the new deal as expensive for Nirma. It will be paying US$127/t for the new capacity compared to the US$118/t that UltraTech Cement is offering Jaiprakash Associates for its laboured deal. The Nirma deal comprises integrated cement plants at Sonadih in Chattisgarh, Arasmeta in Chattisgarh and Chittorgarh in Rajasthan, and cement grinding plants at Jojobera in Jharkhand and Mejia, West Bengal. Other assets include 63 ready mix concrete plants, two aggregate plants and a blending unit.

However, unlike UltraTech, Nirma is a relatively new entrant in the cement industry. Its main industries are in detergents and soda ash manufacture. It invested US$194m in a 2.28Mt/yr cement plant in Rajasthan that was commissioned in November 2014. It also ran into environmental issues over a proposal to build a new cement plant at Mahuva in Gujarat. One report compiled under request by the Indian Supreme Court in 2011 cited the presence of Asiatic lions as a reason for concern!

Lions aside, Nirma may be paying over the odds for its new cement business but it will gain a bigger presence in the industry quickly and diversify from its other existing industries in which it faces fierce competition. The Lafarge India plants are mostly in eastern Indian states compared to Nirma’s plant in Rajasthan in the west, giving it a reasonable geographic spread.

Nirma reportedly plans to finance the purchase through a leveraged buyout and the Mint business newspaper has described this as the largest transaction of its kind in India to date. The risk here will be how the Indian cement market plays out in the short term. LafargeHolcim reported that its cement volumes fell in 2015, although this has since picked up in the first half of 2016. UltraTech did better in its 2015 – 2016 financial year but it reported a slow construction market. Longer-term demographic trends suggest that the cement industry will grow, especially in the east of the country. With this in mind it may be a while before Nirma’s cement business roars.

Germany: Michael Höllermann and Johan P Cnossen are to join the management board of the Industrial Solutions division of ThyssenKrupp with effect from 1 August 2016. Höllermann, aged 51 years, CEO of the Regional Headquarters South America since 2012, will be the new Chief Human Resources Officer (CHRO). Johan P Cnossen, aged 56 years, who joined Industrial Solutions on 1 May 2016 as head of the transformation office for the implementation of ‘planets’, will hold the new position of Chief Operating Officer. The appointments are part of the ‘planets’ program reorganisation of the group’s Industrial Solutions business area.

With the appointments, Jens Michael Wegmann, CEO of the Industrial Solutions business area since 15 October 2015, has now filled all board positions. The new CFO, already in place since 1 June 2016, is Stefan Gesing. Also on the board is Dr Hans Christoph Atzpodien, who will focus on the management of Marine Systems.

Germany: Eric Jaschke has been appointed Chief Financial Officer (CFO) at Schenck Process Group with effect from 1 July 2016. Jaschke will preside over the Schenck Process Group’s global financial organisation, working closely with Andreas Evertz, President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO). Jaschke has already fulfilled the role of CFO on a provisional basis since October 2015.

Jaschke started his career at Schenck Process in 1999 as a specialist for international controlling. In this capacity he focused on building and advancing a management information system. He was CFO of Schenck Process Australia from 2006 to 2007 and became Managing Director of the company in Australia at the start of 2008. Jaschke returned to Germany in 2012 and led the Business Unit Heavy in Darmstadt, one of the four core Business Units of Schenck Process.

Jaschke holds a master’s degree in business administration at the Macquarie Graduate School of Management in Sydney, Australia. He gained his bachelor’s degree at the Baden-Württemberg Cooperative State University in Mannheim, Germany.