Global Cement News

Australia: Martin Brydon has been appointed the Managing Director of Adelaide Brighton. He is currently the Chief Executive Office of the Australian construction materials company.

Brydon, aged 60, trained in electrical and electronic engineering with BHP before completing a Masters Degree in Business Administration and the Stanford Executive Program in the USA in 1998.

Brydon joined Cockburn Cement Limited as an Electrical Engineer in 1981. In 1998 he was appointed Cockburn Cement Limited's Chief Executive Officer. Following Cockburn Cement's merger into Adelaide Brighton in 1999, Brydon became the Group General Manager for the Western Division.

In 2001, Martin was appointed to the position of General Manager, Strategy and Business Development for the Adelaide Brighton group of companies. In 2005, Martin was appointed to the position of Executive General Manager, Cement and Lime at Adelaide Brighton and in 2014 in became its Chief Executive Officer.

Nine-month financial results from the major Brazilian cement producers have been reported this week and they are not looking good. The local construction market is weak and cement sales volumes are down. This has been blamed on a 30% shrinkage of real estate financing and a 20% decrease in infrastructure works.

Votorantim has seen its cement sales volumes drop by 4% year-on-year to 26.7Mt for the first nine months of 2015. InterCement has seen its cement and clinker sales volumes drop by 7.2% to 21.1Mt. LafargeHolcim has reported unspecified declines in its cement sector in its disappointing third quarter results.

Overall, the Sindicato Nacional Da Indústria Do Cimento (SNIC) - Brazil's cement industry body, has reported that domestic cement sales fell by 7.7% to 49.2Mt for the period. Particular sales drops by region have been observed in the Midwest (5.8Mt, -11.2%) and the Southeast (22.8Mt, -9.4%). That last region, Southeast, is pertinent given that it contains the country's biggest cement producing state, Minas Gerais.

Votorantim has been pointing out all year that its costs are soaring due to issues in Brazil. Maintenance costs, energy-related costs and the impact of the depreciation of the Brazilian Real on petcoke were all hitting costs. Net revenue has grown so far in 2015, with a growth of 5% to US$2.75bn, mainly due to the company's geographic spread outside of Brazil.

InterCement has noted that new cement production capacity in north-eastern and southern markets have reduced its sales volumes and prices by 1.7%. It too has experienced a rise in energy costs, pegged to the US Dollar. To act against this InterCement is implementing adjustment measures including suspending production at two grinding units and the closure of concrete units.

Alongside this Camargo Corrêa, the Brazilian construction group that owns InterCement, has been planning to sell a stake in InterCement to pay off debt since at least mid-2015. At the time local media reported that Camargo Corrêa planned to sell 10 – 18% of Intercement for between US$648m and US$1.17bn. CEO Vitor Hallack confirmed this week that Camargo Corrêa is still looking for a buyer. In the meantime it has extended US$536m of its short-term debt.

All of this is mirrored by wider economic woes in the country. In October 2015 the International Monetary Fund projected a 3% drop in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2015. The situation has been blamed on a wider world economy, the slowing Chinese economy and internal factors.

Back on cement, in July 2015, SNIC announced that domestic cement demand could contract by 10 - 15% in 2015 and that consumption could fall to around 60Mt in 2016. Brazil's cement production capacity currently stands at 70.75Mt/yr. Perhaps not coincidentally LafargeHolcim announced a 'portfolio optimisation' in its third quarter results with asset sales of US$3.5bn in 2016. Brazil may be on that list.

For more information on the Brazilian cement industry look out for our report in the December 2015 issue of Global Cement Magazine

People matter in cement companies. Just ask Bruno Lafont, the originally proposed CEO of LafargeHolcim before the merger plans between Lafarge and Holcim changed in mid-2015. Another example is Zhang Bin, the chairman of Shanshui Cement. Some of the shareholders at Shanshui Cement are working hard to remove him. The next attempt has been scheduled for 1 December 2015.

Shanshui Cement, one of the biggest Chinese cement producers, called for the liquidators this week possibly in response. It decided to apply for provisional liquidation after determining that it would default on onshore debt payments due on 12 November 2015. Earlier in the month it had announced doubt whether it could pay its debts.

The scale of this liquidation is monumental for the cement industry. It is broadly similar to a producer at least the size of Dangote going bust. Shanshui Cement is one of China's top ten cement producers. It defaulted on a US$314m onshore debt payment on 12 November 2015.

Based on Global Cement Directory 2015 data, Shanshui Cement is the seventh largest cement producer in the country with 15 cement plants and a cement production capacity of 30.5Mt/yr. Shanshui Cement itself reports that it has a production capacity of 102.6Mt/yr making it the country's fourth largest cement producer. In its 2014 annual results Shanshui Cement reported sales revenue of over US$2.4bn. Its net profit was over US$48m. Sales and profits were down year-on-year in 2014 compared to 2013 and its interim report for 2015 reported the same downward trend. Sales revenue fell by a third to US$793m year-on-year for the first half of 2015. In 2014 its total debt was reported to be US$2.5bn with a gearing ratio of 56.9%, a relatively high figure leaving it vulnerable to decreasing profits.

As the Wall Street Journal and others have reported, the situation has as much to do with corporate politics as it does with over-borrowing. Hot on the heels of Shanshui's liquidation announcement came an offer of help to pay the debts from local rival Tianrui Group if its attempts to change the board of Shanshui were finally successful. Tianrui became the largest shareholder of Shanshui in April 2015 when it increased its stake to 28%. In the process it beat China National Building Material Company and Asia Cement Corporation, who hold 16.7% and 20.9% stakes in Shanshui respectively.

The heart of the Shanshui debacle is the 'key man' clause as reported by Reuters. Borrowing to the company is dependent on current chairman Zhang Bin retaining his position. As soon as he leaves it triggers the repayment of offshore bonds worth US$500m. Normally not due for payment until 2020, the bonds contain a clause that forces the company to sell them within 30 days should Zhang Bin depart.

Shanshui seems likely to be able to pay its debts judging from its sales revenue, assets and the strength of its main shareholders. However, it has chosen to default for the moment. The question for analysts watching this from outside China is whether it masks deeper problems in the Chinese economy as growth continues to slow and industrial overcapacity lingers. Shanshui is the sixth mainland Chinese company known to have defaulted on a bond this year, according to Bloomberg. It's also likely to be operating at a cement production utilisation rate of around 50%.

If the Shanshui Cement situation is more to do with markets than personalities, then it may represent an alarming acceleration of the slowdown of the Chinese economy for the cement industry. If personalities matter more, then the situation is a battle comparable to the politics on the television show 'Game of Thrones.'

Both HeidelbergCement and Italcementi released their third quarter financial results for 2015 this week. The results are worth comparing given the impending acquisition of Italcementi by HeidelbergCement.

HeidelbergCement has reported a rise in revenue of 8% to Euro10.1bn for the first nine months of 2015. Its net profit rose by 27% to Euro762m from Euro599m. Its earnings before interest and income taxes (EBIT) rose by 17% to Euro1.4bn. By region, growth in revenue was reported everywhere except for the group's Eastern Europe-Central Asia region. Notably growth in the group's Asian region is slowing, growth is growing in Africa and markets are recovering in North America and the UK. It is also worth noting that the group's cement and clinker sales volumes fell by 1.1% to 60.6Mt in the first nine months of the year.

Italcementi has reported a rise in revenue of 3% to Euro3.2bn for the first nine months of 2015. It reported a loss of Euro8.1m, down from a loss of Euro63.8m in the previous period. Its EBIT fell slightly to Euro166m. By region the group reported that 'positive' trends in North America, India and Morocco, together with reducing operating expenses in Europe, would be insufficient to counteract revenue losses in France and Egypt. Overall cement and clinker sales fell by 1.4% to 32.1Mt.

Compared to its 2014 results, HeidelbergCement seems set to recover some of its revenue and profit growth after fluctuating income since 2008. Meanwhile, Italcementi has been continuing to cut costs, rebuild its business and profitability. So there are no obvious shocks to the apparent value of either company at this stage. It is also worth noting that the good geographical complementarity of each company's assets could make any potential renegotiation less likely. Everybody looks set to gain something should the purchase go through.

The deal in late July 2015 announced that HeidelbergCement would be purchasing 45% of Italcementi's shares at a price of Euro10.60 per Italcementi share for a total price of Euro1.67bn. The only clause mentioned so far has been 'subject to contractual purchase price reductions'. The deal is still expected to be completed in the first half of 2016 following approval from competition authorities. Approval from the Competition Commission of India was announced in September 2015.

The diverging values of Lafarge and Holcim before their merger in mid-2015 had consequences that led to haggling over the deal and the removal of Bruno Lafont as the proposed CEO of LafargeHolcim. The difference here is that HeidelbergCement is buying Italcementi as opposed to merging with it. However, the performances of both companies remain paramount. Now as then the question will be: is the cost worth it?

For more information read Global Cement's article on the HeidelbergCement purchase of Italcementi in our September 2015 issue.

The past week has seen several quarterly financial results from producers in the world's second-largest cement industry: India. So far, they do not make for a great read from an economic perspective, although some players, including Birla Group and Sanghi Cement are yet to show their hands.

So let's kick off. For the quarter that ended on 30 September 2015, LafargeHolcim subsidiary Ambuja Cements saw its net profit slide by 36% year-on-year to US$23.6m compared to the same period of 2014. Its income fell by 4% to US$324m as it battled a one-off charge. ACC, LafargeHolcim's other Indian subsidiary, saw a profit of US$17.5m for the quarter, a year-on-year fall of 40% compared to 2014. Not great for the global number one player.

Other players to announce so far have included JK Cements, which reported a 58% fall in consolidated net profit to US$2.1m. Meanwhile, Century Textiles, which owns Century Cement, fared even worse. It actually posted a loss compared to a marginal profit in 2014, despite an increase in total income.

It has not been all doom and gloom however. UltraTech Cement, while it reported a drop in profit, was not as badly affected as the firms listed above. It recorded a 3.9% fall to a net profit of US$59.7m for the quarter, down from US$62.3m in the same period of 2014. This was reported as being better than expected according to a senior research analyst at Angel Broking, perhaps hinting at shaky ground under even these results.

So far, the exception to the lower profits and losses has been India Cements Ltd (ICL), which posted an almost five-fold growth in its net profit. It profit grew from US$1.14m to US$6.26m, which it said stemmed mainly from improved operating parameters and substantial reductions in its variable costs. Its operating profit grew to US$35.4m from US$27.9m. It expects performance to improve as it increases its capacity utilisation rate up, currently languishing at just 60%.

Does the company provide a model for other producers to follow? Perhaps. The company's managing director and vice-chairman of ICL, N Srinivasan, said that the company was poised for improved conditions in its markets. In the company's results he said, "Going forward, we see better times ahead. We had a tough time for two years and have achieved a turnaround by cutting costs and maintaining a healthy cement price." The fact that ICL has managed to 'maintain a healthy cement price' in times of low requires scrutiny in a separate column.

However, a possible take-away from the results released so far is that the larger producers seem to have greater immunity to the problems surrounding over-supply in India. Economies-of-scale and the ability to spread risk around different Indian markets tends to favour larger players like UltraTech. Conversely, a smaller player that finds itself 'stuck' in one of the weaker regional markets, must just sit tight and weather the storm. Either that or it can make itself into a strategic acquisition target for one of the larger groups.

We are still awaiting results from other players in the Indian market, but with low demand, it would be foolish to expect them to be significantly different from the above. Given this, two key factors will help determine whether the decline in profits continues or not. Firstly, India's Modi government is promising large-scale infrastructure projects, which would help boost demand for cement. The industry has heard such promises in the past, however, and may chose to be skeptical. Secondly, it is important to remember that lower profits are being seen at the moment, even despite lower coal costs. Any upward change in these costs and the pace may become too fast for some of the country's smaller producers.