Global Cement News

Announcements this week have highlighted the situation in the Egyptian cement industry, which has been bearing the brunt of increasing fuel scarcity for a while now. At first glance this appears bizzare in what is an oil-rich country but a government drive to make revenue from exports has constricted supply and led to a massive increase in fuel costs. Since the middle of 2012 Egyptian cement producers have faced a gradual decline in supplies, massive hikes in price due to the curtailment of subsidiaries and a scramble for 'alternative fuels'.... like coal!

While heavy fuel oil prices were on the rise as early as 2012, it is in 2014 that the cement industry has really begun to feel the brunt of supply cuts. January and February saw the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) cut its allocation of gas to cement producers by 35%, enough to significantly raise competition for the remaining allocation. By May 2013 this has resulted in interruptions to gas supply that closed some plants and slowed down many more. Producers were trumpeting coal as the big new 'alternative' fuel and conversion projects were announced in quick succession. Worse was to come. In June 2014 saw EGAS cut its supply to cement producers by a further 61%.

This relatively rapid turn around in fortunes has been highlighted by two announcements from the industry this week, both from the Italcementi subsidiary Suez Cement. Firstly, Suez updated the industry on its coal conversion project at its Kattameya plant. Both the timescale (completion by September 2015) and the price tag (US$23m) demonstrate the scale of the upset caused by the strangling of the gas supply. The cost implications of this investment and similar investments at three other Suez Cement plants are significant.

Secondly, Suez has announced that ItalGen (another Italcementi subsidiary) has secured a loan to construct a 200MW wind farm at Gabel El Zeit, near Hurghada, to supply its production sites with electricity. With a future target to produce 400MW (40% of Suez's electrical energy needs), this project (mooted since 2008) is a huge departure from established electrical energy sources in Egypt. It is an even larger project, estimated at US$220m. Assuming a ~US$25m price-tag for each of the four coal conversion projects, this brings Italcementi's total current Egypt 'energy stability spend' to a whopping US$320m. It is betting that the oil price trend is not going to reverse any time soon. As prices continue to rise it will be interesting to see what other solutions Egpytian cement producers come up with. The conversion of plants to take alternative or waste-derived fuels and the use of solar installations for plant electrical needs are other ways forward.

All the while, it is important to remember that Suez's projects (and those of other producers) will not be ready for several months at least. It is also important to remember that the same cement producers that are 'suffering' now have enjoyed the subsidies for many years. This makes casualties as the producers adjust to the new market realities a distinct possibility.

Tunisia: Jalel Ben Othmane has been appointed Director General of Ciments de Bizerte in replacement of Ibrahim Sanaa who in turn has been appointed Director General of the Carthage Cement.

India: The succession battle within the Chettinad group of companies has culminated in the removal of chairman MAM Ramaswamy from the board of its flagship enterprise, a position he has held for more than three decades.

A resolution to reappoint Ramaswamy was defeated at the 51st shareholders meeting of the Chettinad Cement Corporation on 27 August 2014. However, Ramaswamy was later named as chairman emeritus by his foster son and managing director MAMR Muthiah, who has taken over the reins.

An official statement from the group said, "In acknowledgement of his contribution at the helm of the company's operations until 1999, the managing director announced that Ramaswamy would be appointed as chairman emeritus for life."

Muthiah, who has powered the group's expansion over the last decade in cement, healthcare and logistics, has instilled a managerial culture that is in sharp contrast to the conservative approach favoured by Ramaswamy. Muthiah has announced that the group would push itself into newer geographies in north India. Currently all of the group's cement assets are located in the south.

South African authorities have started a new investigation into imports of cement from Pakistan. This time the inquiry will examine trade dumping allegations made by local producers including Afrisam, Lafarge, NPC Cimpor and PPC.

The application made by the cement producers provided evidence that the difference between the price of cement (the dumping margin) in Pakistan and for imports from Pakistan in 2013 was 48%. Or, in other words, the price of Pakistan cement imported to South Africa was nearly half that of what is was being sold for in the country that it was actually produced in.

The data submitted to the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa comes from a report by Genesis Analytics on Pakistan cement prices in 2013 and tax information from the South African Revenue Service. Neither source is readily available for more detailed analysis here but data released by XA International Trade Advisors suggests that cement imports from Pakistan rose to 1.1Mt/yr in 2013 and at a value of US$59m. Roughly, this gives a price of US$55/t. This compares to an average price of US$90/t, from the All Pakistan Manufacturers' Association for the first nine months of the 2012 – 2013 Pakistani fiscal year, giving a dumping margin similar to the allegation by the South African cement producers.

Separate industry sources quoted by the Pakistan media on the story reported that the country supplies 1.5 - 1.6Mt/yr of cement to South Africa, its biggest export market, receiving a revenue of US$125m. Although this suggests a dumping margin lower than the one presented to the authorities it is still high.

Other information of note in the investigation notification is that the Pakistan cement imports are only competing heavily with the local bagged cement market in the Southern African Customs Union, which also includes neighbouring Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland. The notification discounts bulk cement imports from Pakistan as being 'prohibitively' expensive suggesting that the Pakistan cement producers have no import infrastructure in southern Africa or that something else is stopping them. For example, the country's market leader for production, Lucky Cement, has export facilities in Karachi with silos and automatic ship loaders. Yet it's only 'brick-and-mortar' presence overseas are projects building an integrated plant in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and a grinding plant in Iraq.

It may also be worth considering that South African industry newcomer Sephaku Cement hasn't joined the dumping allegation. The Dangote subsidiary was set to start producing clinker in late August 2014. This is out of character considering how prominent the Nigerian-based cement producer has been in campaigning against imports to its home nation. However, the Aganang plant in Lichtenburg, North West Province is over 700km from the coast and presumably safe from foreign imports at present.

One final question occurs. How are Pakistan cement producers able to dump bagged cement on the South African market at prices lower than what they are selling it for at home? If individual producers sold their excess at home at a lower price they could potentially undercut their competitors and make a profit. There are many barriers, from input costs to industry structural issues and other reasons that may be preventing this. However, if the South African cement producers succeed in their latest attempt to block imports from Pakistan it may add more impetus to remove such barriers.

Brazil: Antonio Ermírio de Moraes, a former chairman of Votorantim, died on 24 August 2014. De Moraes, who served as chairman and CEO of the company, died of heart failure at the age of 86. At the time of his death, De Moraes held a 25% in the group. His family hold the remaining 75% interest.