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Update on Türkiye, January 2023
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
18 January 2023
The Ministry of Trade in Türkiye said this week that it was monitoring developments in the construction industry. Specifically, the ministry is reacting to complaints it has received about the high price of cement and supply issues. It has been looking at exports of clinker and cement. The statement noted that prices had risen particularly in the last one to two months and that the government was prepared to take unspecified action to alleviate the situation.
The comments hark back to the autumn of 2021 when members of the Construction Contractors Confederation (IMKON) stopped working for two weeks in response to high prices including cement. At the time the ministry tightened its rules on exporting cement and clinker. This followed the start of an investigation into alleged anti-competitive behaviour by the regulator Rekabat Kurumu into nine cement producers in the first half of that year. Around the same time Türk Çimento, the Turkish Cement Manufacturers' Association, had also been warning about growing raw material and energy costs. It noted that declining domestic sales between 2017 and 2019 had encouraged its members to focus on export markets more. All of this was overshadowed in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and global energy prices spiked. Türk Çimento then warned of the trouble that high coal prices were causing the sector.
Graph 1: Domestic and export cement sales in Türkiye, January – September, 2017 – 2022. Source: Türk Çimento.
Graph 1 above shows that the trend towards exports that Türk Çimento pointed out in mid-2021 has continued. Domestic sales fell to a low of 33.2Mt in 2019, recovered to 2021 and dropped somewhat so far in 2022. As an aside, that decline in domestic sales from 2017 to 2019 was the first the local cement industry had experienced a fall in sales since at least 2002. Exports fell year-on-year in 2018 but have increased steadily since then to 14.6Mt in the first nine months of 2022. Exports represented 10% of total sales in 2017. So far in 2022 they have accounted for 27% of total sales. Türk Çimento’s take on the picture so far in 2022 is that it expects the domestic market to decline by 10% in 2022 in all regions of the country principally due to high commodity prices. Cement exports are expected to increase but clinker exports to decrease.
Commercially, Türkiye-based cement producers have reacted to high energy prices by upping their own product prices in turn. OYAK Çimento, for example, reported significant rises year-on-year in sales revenue and earnings in the first nine months of 2022. Net sales grew by 160% year-on-year to Euro403m and earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased by 202% to Euro106m. Akçansa and Çimsa reported a similar situation.
Despite the high energy costs, both investment and merger and acquisition activity has continued in the cement sector in 2022. In August 2022 Fernas Group completed its purchase of two integrated cement plants, a grinding plant and associated ready-mix concrete assets from Çimsa Çimento for US$110m. Later in the year, in November 2022, Safi Çimento acquired Sancim Bilecik Çimento’s integrated plant from Aşkale Çimento. Various upgrade projects to cement plants were also reported including projects at KÇS Kipaş Çimento’s Kahramanmaraş plant, Nuh Çimento’s Hereke cement plant, MEDCEM’s Silifke plant and OYAK Çimento’s Ünye plant.
Recent reporting by the Economist newspaper suggests that the government is targeting the domestic housing sector in response to higher than inflation price rises even compared to Türkiye’s high consumer price inflation rate. The next general election in June 2023 may also be encouraging legislators to look at the accommodation needs of their constituents. Whether this is connected to the Ministry of Trade’s recent decision is unknown. Cement producers have followed the money to lucrative export markets in recent years. How far the government is willing to intervene in this strategy could mark a change in direction for the sector.
Adani Cement takes on the unions in Himachal Pradesh
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
11 January 2023
Adani Cement’s dispute with truck driver unions in Himachal Pradesh is about to enter its fifth week. The standoff began on 15 December 2022 when the company closed its integrated plants at Darlaghat and Barmana in response to union freight rates. A third unit, a grinding plant at Nalagarh, reportedly continued to operate for a few days longer with raw materials supplied from neighbouring Punjab and Rajasthan, until the transport companies shut down its supply.
Adani Group took over the plants from Ambuja Cement and ACC following its acquisition of Holcim’s India-based businesses in September 2022. The new business seemed to be running smoothly as new officials were appointed and an alternative fuels subsidiary, Geoclean, was created. Then Adani Cement closed its two plants in Himachal Pradesh. In a statement the group said, “Our plants at Gagal (Barmana) and Darlaghat have been incurring losses for quite some time now with no signs of improvement due to stiff resistance from transportation unions ignoring the larger cause of employment generation and contribution to the state’s revenue.” The group added that it had requested the truckers reduce the freight rate to around US$0.07/t/km from US$0.14/t/km, with the lower rate previously recommended by a committee from the state’s transport department.
Himachal Pradesh held state elections in mid-November 2022 with the Indian National Congress (INC) party taking control of the state government from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The results of the poll were revealed about a week before the cement plants closed and the new administration has suffered a bumpy start to its tenure. At first the state government issued a show cause notice to the cement producer requesting that it explain the closures or else risk ‘appropriate administrative action.' Several rounds of talks followed to no avail. Most recently, a government subcommittee has been set up that will bring together representatives of Adani Cement and the truck unions to try and agree on new freight rates.
In production terms the closure of the Darlaghat and Barmana cement plants is a big deal in the state, given that they have a combined cement production capacity of 6Mt/yr from the region’s total integrated capacity of 10.5Mt/yr. Data is limited on the direct effects of the standoff on the cement and construction market so far. However, competitor UltraTech Cement may be benefiting as it was swiftly awarded the supply contract for government projects. Local press reports have also noted that some of the unions have been stopping cement trucks from entering the state.
What is clearer is the human side to the dispute. Around 1000 staff are employed both directly and indirectly at the Barmana plant and others have jobs at Darlaghat and Nalagarh. Adani Group has relocated at least 140 staff from both sites during the closures. In addition over 7000 drivers were supporting both plants. Even more people have jobs connected to the plants, their supply chains and markets.
The argument between Adani Cement and the truck driver unions in Himachal Pradesh needs to be resolved soon for the good of everybody. Rising fuel costs are the driver of this situation, although it would be interesting to know why the other cement producers in the state haven’t similarly reacted against high freight rates in the same way. India isn’t the only country where the cement sector has been affected by driver union activity. South Korea endured a series of driver strikes in the autumn of 2022 that disrupted the cement sector. Eventually the government enacted laws to restrict strikes that might cause disruption to key areas such as cement production. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that global inflation rates will stabilise in 2023 after a sharp rise in 2022. Growth rates are also predicted to slow. As societies and companies adjust to this it seems likely that there will be more clashes between companies, unions and other organisations as everybody tries to absorb higher costs.
Update on Zimbabwe, January 2023
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
04 January 2023
Lafarge Cement Zimbabwe (LCZ) received an unwelcome present before Christmas when the US Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) placed the company buying it on its economic sanctions list. OFAC made its announcement on 12 December 2022. However, the cement producer said that its parent company, Associated International Cement, had concluded its sale of a 76% stake in LCZ to Fossil Mines on 6 December 2022. Local press reports that the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange halted trading in the cement company on 23 December 2022. Then, LCZ said on 29 December 2022 that the OFAC sanctions had “impacted some processes” within it. It added that it was considering various courses of action to protect the business and the interests of all stakeholders.
OFAC took action against Fossil Agro, Fossil Contracting and the group’s chief executive officer, Obey Chimuka, due to alleged links to a previously sanctioned individual, Kudakwashe Tagwirei, and his company, Sakunda Holdings. OFAC said that Tagwirei had “materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, logistical, or technical support for, or goods or services in support of, the Government of Zimbabwe.” It accused him of using his relationships with government officials to gain state contracts, to receive access to currencies, including the US Dollar, and of supplying luxury items such as cars to ministers. It added that Chimuka was a “longtime business partner” of Tagwirei. Fossil Agro was also linked to a mismanaged agricultural subsidy scheme.
When a company says it has concluded a divestment or acquisition the expectation is that everything has finished. However, LCZ has admitted that the OFAC action has caused it some problems. We’ll have to wait for more information to be released to appreciate the full extent of these ‘problems.’ However, it is worth noting that government capital controls caused delays for the handover of a new vertical cement mill ordered from China-based CBMI to LCZ in mid-2022. At the time it was reported that the cement producer still owed the supplier around US$5m but was unable to make the payment due to economic measures the government had taken to avoid depreciation of the local currency. Other potential issues could also lie in any continuing services or materials that Associated International Cement and its parent company Holcim might have agreed to supply to Fossil Mines in the future as part of the divestment deal.
Looking at LCZ’s business more generally, in its third quarter trading update it said that revenue was down by 43% year-on-year due to suppressed cement and mortar sales volumes. Yet, this was due, in part, to a roof collapse at the company’s plant in late 2021 and the commissioning and ramp-up of that new mill in the fourth quarter of 2022. So the company expects ‘significant’ recovery in its sales volumes in 2023. In a sobering aside illustrating the realities of doing business in Zimbabwe, it also mentioned that the local interest rate jumped to above 200% in July 2022! Despite all of this though, it noted that both residential and government-based infrastructure markets were driving market demand.
South Africa’s PPC reported a fall in its cement sales volumes from its subsidiary PPC Zimbabwe in the six months to September 2022 with knock-on declines to revenue and earnings. It blamed this on a planned kiln shutdown, noted the negative role of hyperinflation and forecast that volumes would improve subsequently due to ‘robust’ cement demand. It pointed out that its earnings were hit during the maintenance period because it had to import clinker from South Africa and Zambia and that this was more expensive than locally manufactured clinker. The other thing that both LCZ and PPC raised were power cuts, although LCZ reported that unscheduled outages had decreased in the third quarter of 2022.
The growing demand for cement in Zimbabwe as reported by both LCZ and PPC helps to explain how Holcim was able to finalise a deal to sell its local subsidiary in 2022. Operational and financial hurdles such as coping with hyperinflation and power cuts show the problems these companies have also faced running a business in the country. Merger and acquisition deals in the cement sector often face travails as they are proposed, negotiated, made public and then put to the scrutiny of regulators. It seems unusual though for a divestment deal to run into problems after it has seemingly been closed.
2022 in cement news
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
21 December 2022
Taking a look at the most read news stories on the Global Cement website in 2022 reveals what readers have been interested in. The usual bias applies due to the prominence of countries where English is prevalent and there is a concentration on stories from earlier in the year. Yet, even with these constraints, key trends identified elsewhere emerge. Read the December 2022 issue of Global Cement Magazine for a roundup of what we think has been noteworthy.
Top 10 news stories on Global Cement website in 2022
1. Holcim receives bids for Ambuja Cements
2. JK Lakshmi Cement and TARA to launch limestone calcined clay cement production
3. Ramco Cements to commission new plant at Kurnool in February 2022
4. CalPortland to buy Redding cement plant from Martin Marietta
5. ACC launches Houses of Tomorrow in India
6. CRH exits Russian market
7. HeidelbergCement freezes investments in Russian operations
8. US facing cement shortage
9. HeidelbergCement, Holcim and Sabancı Holding are potential buyers for Sika’s US assets
10. Jaiprakash Associates seeking to sell all assets
The two large India-based acquisition and merger (M&A) stories are both present at early stages of their development. Firstly, Adani Group went on to buy Holcim’s two subsidiaries, Ambuja Cements and ACC, becoming the second largest cement producer in the country. Secondly, Jaiprakash Associates was reported to be in dire financial straits in the autumn and looking to sell off more assets. This came to pass in mid-December 2022 when Dalmia Cement (Bharat) reached a deal to buy Jaiprakash Associates’ cement assets for US$684m. Incidentally, Adani Group made the news this week when it published plans to suspend production at two of its newly acquired cement plants in Himachal Pradesh due to high freight rates. The state government responded with a court order requiring the cement producer to justify its actions that, in its view, would detrimentally affect the lives of many. While it seems unlikely that the plants will close permanently, this incident does demonstrate that Adani Group is starting to take action with its new cement business.
The other M&A story concerns cement companies buying assets outside of the standard cement, concrete and aggregates triad. Global Cement has covered this business shift increasingly since Holcim acquired Firestone Building Products in 2021. The story in 2022 that readers were interested in concerned potential buyers for Sika US, an admixture manufacturer. This one also has a sustainability angle because admixtures can be used to make cement and concrete more efficient in different ways. A more obvious example of cement production becoming more environmentally friendly was that of an India-based cement producer preparing to start production of limestone calcined clay cement (LC3). The increased production of blended cements around the world has been a big story in 2022, particularly in the US.
Cement shortages in parts of the US were a theme we picked up on a few times in 2022. Nationally it followed supply issues in the southwest in early 2021 that led Cemex to restart a mothballed kiln at a plant in Mexico with the express aim of serving the export market.
In April 2022 shortages were being reported on the other side of the country in Alabama and South Carolina. Ultimately this was blamed on labour and supply chain issues in the aftermath of the coronavirus shutdowns. The other big US story in 2022 was back in California where CalPortland agreed to buy the Redding cement plant from Martin Marietta. The subsidiary of Japan-based Taiheiyo Cement later struck a further deal to buy the Tehachapi plant, also from Martin Marietta, in August 2022. Both of these integrated plants were previously sold by Lehigh Hanson to Martin Marietta in 2021. In November 2022 Lehigh Hanson announced that its remaining integrated unit in California, the Permanente plant near Cupertino, was going to be transitioned to a distribution and quarry site.
Finally, the top news stories in 2022 where not immune to the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The big underlying narrative has been a jolt to global energy prices. What could be seen here though were the efforts of the multinational cement producers to limit their exposure to the market in Russia and any potential legal action. CRH led the exodus, although it had a relatively small business to offload. Heidelberg Materials froze its investments in its Russia-based subsidiary in March 2022. Holcim completed the divestment of its business to local management in mid-December 2022. Buzzi Unicem withdrew from any operational involvement with its subsidiary SLK Cement in May 2022.
That’s it from Global Cement Weekly for 2022. Enjoy the seasonal and New Year break if you have one.
Global Cement Weekly will return on 4 January 2023
Dalmia Bharat goes central
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
14 December 2022
Further consolidation of the Indian cement sector looked closer this week with the news that Dalmia Bharat’s cement subsidiary has agreed to buy the remaining cement plants from Jaiprakash Associates. The US$685m deal covers cement and power plants in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. It includes clinker production capacity of 6.7Mt/yr, cement capacity of 9.4Mt/yr and 280MW of captive power capacity.
Chart 1: Map of Dalmia Bharat’s cement plants in November 2022 with region of proposed new plants highlighted in orange. Source: Adapted from Dalmia Bharat investor presentation.
The acquisition gives Dalmia Bharat the opportunity to draw level with Shree Cement in terms of cement production capacity. If the deal completes, then both cement companies will hold a capacity of around 46Mt/yr. This puts them behind UltraTech Cement and Adani Group nationally. In terms of the cost, the proposed acquisition works out at around US$73/t of cement capacity, although this doesn’t take into account the additional captive power generation capacity. This compares to US$119/t for UltraTech Cement’s purchase of Jaiprakash Associates plants in 2017 and US$97/t for Adani Group’s purchase of Holcim’s Indian-based business in September 2022.
Dalmia Bharat’s rationale for its move this week was that it wants to grow in the Central Region of the country and work towards a capacity target of 75Mt/yr by the 2027 financial year and at least 110Mt/yr by the 2031 one. It backed this up in an investors’ presentation by saying that cement consumption was around 170kg/capita locally and that the region represented about 15% of national demand at 54Mt/yr. This roughly checks out with regional integrated/clinker production capacity distribution analysis that Global Cement Weekly carried out in June 2022. Only the East region was lower, but this didn’t take into account grinding plants or new projects.
Completion of the agreement is planned by December 2023 and is subject to the usual regulatory approvals. However, readers may recall the difficulties UltraTech Cement had in the mid-2010s when it attempted to buy two plants from the subsidiary of Jaypee Group. Problems stemming from an amendment to the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) (MMDR) Act caused the original proposal to be rejected by the Bombay High Court in early 2016. UltraTech Cement bounced back though with a deal to buy far more plants instead. This deal completed successfully in mid-2017.
Jaypee Group’s debts have also caused problems along the way. Indeed, this is the reason why it has finally decided to leave the cement business altogether. In early December 2022 it reported its latest default on interest payments towards some of its loans. Overall its outstanding debt was US$3.39bn. Due in part to this, there have been plenty of stories in the local press over the last decade on whoever was reputedly buying the Jaypee Group’s cements assets. In October 2022, for example, Adani Group was reportedly in advanced talks to buy Jaypee Group’s remaining cement business until it denied it publicly. One deal that did reach fruition was Dalmia Bharat’s purchase of Bokaro Jaypee Cement back in 2014 from a joint-venture majority controlled by Jaypee Group. That agreement gave it full control of the 2.1Mt/yr Bokaro grinding plant in Jharkhand. Looking at the current proposed acquisition, one commentator from HDFC Securities in the local business press noted that detail on the transaction is lacking, such as what will happen to existing limestone reserves. Another pointed out that the deal was probably 30 – 40% below the replacement cost because the plants were old, lack of interest from potential buyers and due to the “likely need for additional CAPEX to run operations.”
If the Dalmia Bharat - Jaiprakash Associates deal completes then it marks the end of an era for the Indian cement industry as one of the big players bows out of the sector. It shows once more that, despite the mounting fuel and raw material costs in 2022, companies are still seeing big opportunities. In its December 2022 report, the ratings agency ICRA found that cement sales volumes grew by 11% year-on-year to 187Mt in the first half of the 2023 financial year. The acquisition might also, hopefully, put an end to the endless speculation about who Jaypee Group might be selling its cement plants to! Although, of course, the question then becomes who else might be considering divesting cement assets.