Displaying items by tag: Forecast
Indocement predicts cement demand to grow in 2014
21 March 2014Indonesia: PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk has predicted that cement demand will increase in 2014. Indocement corporate secretary Sahat Panggabean pinned the prediction on increasing infrastructure and real estate projects in 2014.
In order to meet market demand Indocement is currently building a 4.4Mt/yr cement plant in Citeureup. The company is also in the process of seeking licenses for the two 2.5Mt/yr greenfield cement plants to be built in Central Java and a location outside of Java respectively.
In 2013 Indocement faced increased competition from new cement producers in the market and expanded cement production capacity established producers. Indocement also pointed out to Indonesian news agency Antara that some of the new producers were importing cement into the country from abroad.
ARM Cement forecasts profits to rise by 35% in 2013
04 October 2013Kenya/Tanzania: ARM Cement expects its revenue to grow year-on-year at a slightly faster rate in 2013 due new a new cement plant in Tanzania that increased its production capacity. Chief executive Pradeep Paunrana made the forecast in an interview with Reuters. The Kenyan cement producer expects similar growth in 2014.
A new cement grinding plant in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania that was commissioned in 2012 increased ARM's cement production capacity by 0.75Mt/yr to 1.75Mt/yr. Another 1.2Mt/yr clinker plant in Tanga, Tanzania is due to start production in early 2014.
In July 2013 ARM reported that its pre-tax profits for the first half of 2013 had rise by 28% year-on-year to US$11.5m.
MPA calls for UK government to ‘Cement the Future’
23 September 2013UK: The Mineral Products Association (MPA) today, which promotes the interests of the cement industry in the UK, has today launched a landmark document for the UK cement industry, 'Cementing the Future – Sustaining an Essential British Industry'. The new publication sets out to explain the importance of cement and concrete to the UK economy and society and draws attention to the vulnerability of the industry to overseas competition unless the government acts to create a level playing field in terms of the cost of regulation and unilateral 'green taxes' that overseas competitors do not face.
"Cement is a key constituent in concrete, the most widely used man made substance on the planet , and underpins our economy and everyday life," said Dr Pal Chana, Executive Director of the MPA. "Our shops, factories, offices, homes, schools, hospitals and much more all depend on this critical material yet the industry is struggling to compete in the face of ever increasing costs, some of which are centrally imposed by government. Our strategic significance to the economy cannot be overstated."
"The government's own economic growth plans are predicated on a substantial increase in the construction of infrastructure and housing and cement and concrete are going to be needed for both," continued Chana. "We cannot allow the supply of this essential material to be left to the vagaries of the international trading markets, especially not when we have a deep rooted industry here in the UK with factories in mainly rural locations providing much needed jobs."
'Cementing the Future' calls on the government to: recognise the industry's strategic significance and potential to generate economic growth; acknowledge the industry's role in delivering a low-carbon future for the UK; deliver an economic climate of investment security and reduce regulatory uncertainty in the industry; reduce the cumulative cost burden on the industry and; lift unilateral green taxes. In return, the industry will deliver: a secure supply of quality-assured cement made in the UK; commitment to the UK government's infrastructure and built environment programme; continued investment in the future of a healthy domestic cement industry; sustained employment at our network of UK cement plants and the supporting supply chain and; a planned reduction of 81% in greenhouse gases as detailed in our Carbon Roadmap to 2050.
"The UK cement industry has provided an essential material for the built environment for over 100 years. Working with government, we can continue to make a vital contribution to development and cement the future of an essential British industry", concluded Chana.
PCA stands by brighter US cement future
18 September 2013US cement consumption may have disappointed some in the first quarter of 2013 but solid growth lies ahead, according to the Portland Cement Association (PCA). Just how solid that growth will be remains open to interpretation.
PCA chief economist Ed Sullivan forecast 8% growth in cement consumption at the start of 2013. Now's its been halved to just 4%. Yet he's standing by the hint of good news ahead, upping the growth from 2014 to 9.7%.
Figures from the major US cement producers present a mixed picture. The major multinational cement producers mostly suffered from the weather in early 2013. Lafarge saw its cement sales in North America drop by 23% year-on-year for the first half of 2013 to 4.4Mt from 5.7Mt in the same period of 2012. Cemex's cement sales in the US rose by 3% but no specific figures were released. Holcim's cement sales in North America fell by 7% to 5Mt from 5.4Mt. HeidelbergCement's cement sales in the North America grew by 5% to 5.7Mt from 5.4Mt.
Of the rest, Texas Industries reported a rise in cement shipments of 29% to 2.23Mt from 1.73Mt for the six months to the 31 May 2013. Titan saw sales in the US rise by 10% to US$258m.
Preliminary United States Geological Survey data for June 2013 suggests that the increase in portland and blended cement shipments in the US slowed in the first half of 2013. In 2011 32.1Mt were shipped, in 2012 37.0Mt were shipped and in 2013 37.2Mt were shipped.
Meanwhile the construction figures US Department of Commerce mostly suggested growth but not without the odd jitter. Construction spending fell slightly in June 2013. Total construction spending adjusted seasonally fell by 0.4% to US$869bn due to a fall in non-residential construction. Since then though the July 2013 figure hit US$901bn, the highest since June 2009.
Accordingly, in his forecast Sullivan pins his hopes on the residential sector in the near term. It has seen consistent growth since October 2012. However other industry commentators, like the American Institue of Architects, have focused on poor growth in non-residential construction.
Let's hope Sullivan's got it right.
PCA forecasts US cement consumption to grow by 9.7% from 2014
13 September 2013US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has forecast that cement consumption will increase by 4% in 2013, followed by 9.7% in 2014 and 2015.
"Nearly two-thirds of the anticipated growth in 2013 cement consumption will be caused by gains in the residential construction market," said PCA chief economist Ed Sullivan. "Home inventories are declining, signalling that it is time to start building, while the lingering effects of damaged credit due to foreclosure activity have created a robust apartment demand."
According to the PCA's forecast, consumer and business attitudes are expected to increasingly focus on the recovering economy rather than political uncertainty. However Sullivan hoped that the US House of Congress would avoid the political brinksmanship shown during the fiscal cliff crisis of early 2013 during future debt limit discussions.
Sullivan predicts that an increase in local spending on public construction starting in the 2016 financial year will drive a recovery in cement consumption in the US. Due to the high level of cement usage in road construction a rise of 11% in cement is forecast for 2016.
East African cement firms to benefit from construction boom
27 August 2013Kenya/Tanzania/Uganda: Cement makers in east Africa are set to get a major lift from an expected surge in demand driven by double-digit growth of the construction sector in the region, according to stockbrokerage firm Kestrel Capital.
Kestrel's analysts say that the construction sector is likely to outpace economic growth, expanding by up to 13%/yr compared to expected GDP growth of 6.0%/yr, 5.5%/yr and 7.0%/yr in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania respectively.
The growth is expected to boost sales for regional cement makers and reverse the fortunes of Kenya's East African Portland Cement Company (EAPCC), the performance of which has been damaged by management wrangles at the company.
Kenya: Bamburi Cement expects a robust second half of 2013 according to Reuters, after it saw its pretax profit drop by 12% in the first half of 2013. It attributed the decline to uncertainty over the Kenyan elections and a slowdown in its export markets.
Bamburi, which is controlled by the French multinational cement giant Lafarge, posted a first-half pretax profit of US$37.46m, while its turnover declined by 18% to US$180.8m.
"We started seeing a significant turnaround in the markets of Kenya and Uganda with continued signs of an improving macro-economic environment in both countries," said the company. "The group is therefore strongly optimistic of a stronger second half."
Ukraine: Ukrcement, the Ukrainian cement association, expects cement production to drop by 7% in 2013, a decrease of up to 684,000t, compared to a production of up to 9.28Mt in 2012. In an interview with Ukranian News, executive director of the association Petro Lopatiyev attributed the slowdown in production to an 'unfavourable' situation in the construction market.
According to the association, in 2012 cement production fell by 7% compared to a production of 9.77Mt in 2011. Clinker production fell by 16% to 6.28Mt. Exports of cement from Ukraine fell by 5.2% or 8964t to 164,548t in 2012, compared with 2011.
In 2012, imports comprised 1% of the market with a volume of 94,516t. However, Ukrcement fears that cement may be dumped in the Ukranian market from the neighbouring territory Transdniestria. The breakaway Moldovan territory has a stagnant constuction market and a lower cost of cement production than Ukraine. The association wants the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade to hold an anti-dumping investigation.
In other developments Ukrcement has called for a switch to European standards of cement production from 2014. At present, Ukraine has two cement production standards: the Ukrainian one called ДСТУ Б В.2.7-46:2010 and one identical to a European standard called ДСТУ Б EN 197-1:2008.
The Ukrcement association was created in 2004 during a reorganisation of the Ukrainian cement industry. There are over 15 enterprises engaged in cement production with a total production capacity of over 20Mt/yr.
PCA reveals improved forecast for 2013
21 January 2013US: Improving underlying economic fundamentals, the existence of large pent-up demand balances and the diminishment of economic 'fiscal cliff' uncertainty will combine to result in strong growth rates in 2013 and an increase in cement consumption, according to a new forecast by the Portland Cement Association (PCA).
According to the latest forecast there will be 8.1% growth in cement consumption in 2013 compared to 2012, significantly higher than the tepid growth projected in the PCA's autumn 2012 report. The upward revisions reflect adjustments made in light of the recent fiscal cliff accord, recognition of stronger economic momentum and markedly more optimistic assessments regarding residential construction activity. The January 2013 report marked 2012 consumption at 78.5Mt, an 8.9% increase compared to cement consumption in 2011.
"Growth in 2013 cement consumption will be largely driven by gains in residential construction," said PCA Chief Economist Ed Sullivan. "Housing starts should reach nearly 950,000 units, with single family construction near 700,000 starts during 2013. We see starts hitting the one million mark in 2014 or 2015."
Sullivan did caution, however, that the first quarter of 2013 would actually show declines compared to the same period in 2012. "It is important to point out that this potential decline in first quarter growth rates does not signal a weakening in market fundamentals, but rather a hangover from favourable 2012 weather conditions," said Sullivan. "Stronger gains in cement consumption growth are expected during the second quarter."
The accelerated consumption predicted during the second half of 2013 should carry into the following year, when the PCA projects a cement consumption increase of 8.3%. The PCA also upwardly revised its long-range projections for 2015-2017. Annual growth during that period is expected to be as high as 9.2%/yr.
Jiangxi Cement expects net profit down by up to 70% in 2012
16 January 2013China: Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement, a Shenzhen-listed producer of cement and clinker, has estimated that the company's net profit has decreased by 60-70% year-on-year in 2012 compared to a net profit of US$81.4m in 2011. The company made the announcement in a performance forecast that was released on 14 January 2012.