Displaying items by tag: Forecast

Cement industry results from China have all told an alarming story this week: profits for the first half of 2012 look set to fall by more than 50% year-on-year.

China Resources Cement Holdings warned that its first-half earnings were down sharply. China National Materials Co. Ltd. (Sinoma), the cement equipment and engineering services provider, and Gansu Qilianshan Cement, a small Shanghai-listed cement producer, have both forecast similar drops. Sinoma blamed its drop in profit partly on an overseas project but 'interestingly' no further information was released detailing which project.

Previous to this in June 2012 Anhui Conch Cement warned that its net profit would fall by more than 50% due to weak demand and falling product prices. In May 2012 China National Building Material Co Ltd (CNBM) reported that its net profit for the first quarter of 2012 was down by 45% year-on-year. In April 2012 Jidong Cement reported an increase in its net loss for the first quarter and a year-on-year revenue drop of 14%.

Each of the Chinese big players in the cement industry have issued profit warnings of a similar scale suggesting that the Chinese market faces a uniform downturn or that a slowdown is being centrally managed. Official signs that the Chinese industry faced a slowdown emerged in March 2012 when the national growth target was lowered, analysts' predictions were released forecasting weakened profits for the nation's main producers and government officials admitted that overcapacity loomed within five years.

According to OneStone Research data on the Chinese market in 2010 CNBM, Anhui Conch, Jidong and Sinoma represented over 20% of Chinese capacity. To give these figures some perspective, in 2011 CNBM's profit was US$1.7bn. Holcim's operating profit for the same period was US$2bn and Lafarge's operating income was US$2.74bn. Even halved, CNBM's profit is a massive figure for a company with less of an international presence than the European multinationals.

Australia: Boral, Australia's leading building materials supplier, has downgraded its overall profit forecast for the second time in two months, saying earnings could be as much as US$75.5m lower than it expected in February 2012. The downgrade comes with predictions that the group will announce asset writedowns when it delivers its full-year result in August 2012.

It is now expected that Boral will post a net profit before significant items for the current financial year in the range of US$100-110m. The company has continued to blame the profit downgrades on bad weather and weak conditions in the property and construction market and said that an early maintenance shutdown at Waurn Ponds Cement Works in Victoria was also weighing on earnings.

India: Strong sales from India's two largest cement makers, Aditya Birla Group's UltraTech and Swiss major Holcim's Ambuja Cements, in May 2012 are likely to return the industry to growth figures above 10% after a gap of two months.

Following India's 'disappointing' GDP growth of 5.3% for the first quarter of 2012, strong dispatches just before the start of the monsoon season has given hope to cement industry experts for better growth in 2012-13.

Ambuja Cements sold 1.93Mt in May 2012 against 1.73Mt in May 2011, a rise of 11.9%. UltraTech Cement, registered sales growth of 10.6%. However, Ambuja's sister concern, ACC, could not match up with the other key producers and reported a growth of 3%. It sold 2.05Mt compared to 1.99Mt in May 2011.

"With 10-12% growth from country's two top cement makers, it seems the industry will hit growth of 11-13% in May 2012," said the research head of a Mumbai-based brokerage firm.

The Indian Cement Manufacturers' Association (CMA) will be releasing the sector's overall statistics in June 2012. UltraTech Cement, ACC and Amubja Cements collectively control close to one-third of the country's cement market, which has an overall capacity of 330Mt/yr.

Zimbabwe: Increased cement demand in the local market has lead to Lafarge Cement Zimbabwe upgrading its revenue forecast for the year to 31 December 2012 to US$62m from an initial forecast of US$60m. At the company's annual general meeting managing director Jonathan Shoniwa said that increased capacity utilisation and cement demand had resulted in the revenue forecast adjustment.

In 2011 the company recorded a revenue of US$50m following a refurbishment exercise that increased capacity utilisation from 75% to 90% against a 19% decline in exports culminating from an increased focus on local demand. Shoniwa said that turnover in the four months to 30 April 2012 had risen by 35.2% to US$21.9m, with the operating margin having improved to 14% from 10% year-on-year.

Since Zimbabwe's economy 'dollarised' in January 2009, when US dollars were permitted to be used in parallel to the existing currency, cement demand for individual home projects increased as people focused on improving and building residential houses. According to Shoniwa, cement demand in the country is currently up by 28% predominantly due to retail construction. With the construction industry currently operating at below 40% capacity, the focus by the company will continue to be on the domestic market and increasing market share.

Lafarge Cement Zimbabwe has a capacity of 0.45Mt/yr. US$4.5m is expected to be spent on upgrades by the company in 2012.

Qatar: A new report by Commerical bank Capital has forecast massive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for cement consumption in Qatar, one of the wealthiest countries in the Middle East. Investment in Qatar's construction sector on the back of what the report termed 'strong economic fundamentals' will trigger demand for cement, with a forecast CAGR of 12% to 2015.

Qatar's current production capacity stands at 6.2Mt/yr, which meets the country's existing demand. However, Commercial bank Capital expects consumption to peak in 2013 and 2014. The majority of Qatar's large-scale projects that are planned or under construction will be completed by 2015.

The report said that Qatari companies would be 'unlikely' to be able to match the impending demand, meaning that it will have to seek cement imports, likely to come from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Cement producers in Qatar are planning to further expand their capacity in preparation for anticipated massive investment in the country's construction sector. The majority of construction activities will be in relation to infrastructure upgrade and real estate developments. Qatar National Cement Company (QNCC), already the country's largest cement producer with a market share of around 70%, is going to add 0.93Mt/yr to take its capacity to 5.36Mt/yr in the coming years.

"The Cement price in Qatar has been stable as it is controlled by the government," the report said. "Going forward, we do not expect any volatility in the cement price and believe that it will continue to remain stable at current levels."

Spain: The Spanish cement producer Cementos Portland Valderrivas (CPV) has announced that it expects to swing to profit in 2013 thanks to its 'Plan NewVal' launched recently. Plan NewVal 2012-2013 is focused on cost reduction and securing new sources of revenue.

CPV's new chairman and CEO, Juan Bejar, said that CPV's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) are now expected to reach Euro200m in 2013.

Speaking more widely, Bejar noted that cement consumption in Spain came to just 20.4Mt in 2011, down a massive 64% from the 2007 high. Worse is expected in 2012, when consumption is expected to fall another 20% to just 16Mt.

US: Stronger than expected job creation and the beginning of a construction industry recovery mean gains in real construction spending will materialise in 2012, according to a new forecast from the Portland Cement Association (PCA). The PCA says that increases in cement consumption will follow.

The PCA revised its autumn forecast upward, anticipating a modest 3.7% increase in cement consumption in 2012, followed by a 7.6% jump in 2013 and a 14.1% increase in 2014. The forecast includes marginal improvements to non-residential construction, an upward revision to housing starts and an aggressive cement intensity gain, which is the amount of cement used per dollar of construction activity.

"Cement usage is greatest at the early stages of construction with foundation work. The retreat of building starts during the recession had a huge impact on consumption and intensity," said Ed Sullivan, chief economist at the PCA. "A construction start rebound in 2012 coupled with concrete's competitive price compared to other building materials translates to increases."

Sullivan said that, with successive years of economic and employment growth, the structural issues facing the construction industry will diminish. For example, the adverse impact of foreclosures will fade and return on investment for non-residential investments will improve.

The PCA forecasts that all sectors of construction will be positive during 2014-2015, which typically results in large gains in cement consumption.

Indonesia: It seems that not a week goes past without a forecast, announcement or other report about the continued boom in the Indonesian cement industry. Similarly, there is a steady stream of expansion announcements to accommodate the future demand. In light of another round of impressive cement statistics, what's the story for Indonesia in 2012 and beyond?

In the three months to 31 March 2012 Indonesia produced 12.5Mt of cement, an 18% rise on the first quarter of 2011. In the whole of that year, the cement industry turned out a massive 17% more cement than in 2010. These headline increases are certainly impressive and show that if the first quarter of 2012 was repeated three more times throughout the rest of the year, Indonesia would hit its 53Mt production forecast. This is more than double the cement production of 1998 (22Mt/yr in the midst of the Asian banking crisis) and, while from a low base, the values represent incredible sustained year-on-year demand growth.

But what is the potential of the Indonesian cement industry? This can be assessed by looking one of Indonesia's neighbours, namely Malaysia, and doing a quick thought-experiment. What would the Indonesian cement industry look like if the country were to suddenly develop demands and cement consumption patterns like Malaysia does today? Indonesia has a population 8.3 times higher than Malaysia¹ and a cement consumption/capita rate approximately 2.4 times lower.² Assuming current Indonesian cement consumption to be 50Mt, if all of the people in Indonesia were to suddenly start using cement like Malaysia does today, the country's cement industry would have to be nearly 1000Mt/yr to support demand!

While this is clearly not the case today and is unlikely to be fully realised, Indonesia will continue to develop economically. As it does, the world's fourth most populous nation will need more cement. How much is open to debate, but even if a small percentage of that hypothetical 1000Mt can be realised, it will certainly justify the current rush to add extra capacity. This is now especially likely in light of the December 2011 relaxation of land acquisition rules, which will make it easier to build both cement projects and the large construction projects that need cement.

Click here for much more on the cement industries of Indonesia and Malaysia (as well as Vietnam) from the April 2012 issue of Global Cement Magazine.

1. CIA World Factbook website, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook.

2. Cement consumption per capita data for Malaysia taken from Lafarge 2010 Annual Report. (http://www.lafarge.com/04112011-customers_activities-cement_market_2010-uk.pdf). Malaysia is a representative comparison for Indonesia based on its GDP to cement consumption ratio.

India: Growth in the Indian cement industry for March 2012 was 12%, the lowest figure since November 2011, causing some analysts to fear that there may be a slowdown ahead.

Despatches for the four main Indian companies, namely ACC, Ambuja, UltraTech and JP Associates, peaked at 21% in November 2011. Subsequent growth has averaged out at 13% for the December 2011 to February 2012 period. The high growth since November 2011 has been attributed to an increase in demand during the Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly elections and an addition of new capacity. Subsequently, industry growth estimates for 2013 were increased from 7-8% to 10%. However, with March 2012 witnessing the lowest growth in five months, a few analysts are cautious about this. The industry growth is now expected to be around 6.5%.

Pinakin Parekh and Neha Manpuria, JP Morgan analysts, commented, "The big four companies have seen a year-on-year growth come to an average 12%, among the lowest over the last five months." They added that growth slowdown in March 2012 could be due to decline in despatches by JP Associates.

An analyst from a domestic brokerage said, "A good amount of capacity was added by these players in 2011. The rise in demand growth rates in November 2011 and its slowing down in March 2012 could be due to this. Some of these months are being compared with months a year ago when these capacities were still being commissioned." The analyst expects demand growth for the rest of 2012 to average 6-7% with a high possibility of an upside.

However, a few have turned bullish on the sector. Anand Agarwal and Rahul Kumar, analysts with international brokerage Jefferies, said, "Strong despatches by major cement companies in March confirm our belief of a revival of cement demand and we expect overall industry despatches to clock a double-digit growth for a fifth consecutive month in March 2012. We expect the strong demand momentum to sustain throughout 2012." Mihir Jhaveri, Prateek Kumar and Suhas Harinarayan from Religare Research see a 9-10% despatch growth for the 2013 fiscal year.