Global Cement News

Tomorrow (18 September 2014) the residents of Scotland, one of the UK's four 'home nations', will vote in a referendum. The question will be whether or not the country should leave the UK and become fully independent. Rival 'Yes' and 'No' campaigns have spent the best part of two years trying to convince the electorate of the benefits of either leaving or staying in the UK.

Leaving the political discussion to one side, where would a 'Yes' vote leave the Scottish cement industry? The only cement plant in Scotland is the 1Mt/yr Lafarge Tarmac plant at Dunbar, East Lothian, so on the face of it, Scotland's cement industry would be 100% owned by one operator. At this stage, however, it is (hopefully) fair to assume that relations between Scotland and the rest of the UK should be cordial enough to allow normal supply chains and contracts to continue over the border. Lafarge Tarmac, or any future operator, should expect business as (mostly) usual.

However, there are potential issues when it comes to the ongoing UK Competition Commission's (CC) investigation into competition in the UK cement and blast furnace slag markets. The removal of Dunbar from the list of UK cement assets is small but significant. Would the CC come to the same conclusion regardless of the outcome of the Scottish vote? And (how) would any decisions filter into the EU-wide investigations into the LafargeHolcim merger disposals?

Part of the discussion around Scottish independence has been the suggestion that Welsh nationalists might ask for a similar referendum in the event of a Scottish 'Yes.' In our cement plant thought experiment, this has much more of an effect on the current UK situation, with two Welsh plants at Mold, Flintshire and Aberthaw, Roose, which is also a Lafarge Tarmac plant. This would really re-shape the former UK's cement industry and pose new questions for regulators. Elsewhere, Northern Ireland's only cement plant is also a Lafarge Tarmac facility.

Also, a 'Yes' for Scotland has the potential to reverberate around the rest of the European Union (EU). Catalonia, the autonomous region in Spain, has a long-standing and separate identity to the rest of Spain. By contrast to Scotland, its cement industry is massive, with Ciment Català listing eight plants across four operators. If it left Spain, there would be 30 plants in the country instead of 38.

More provocatively, Belgium is a country that, while at the centre of Europe, is often divided at home. French-speaking Wallonia has all five of Belgium's cement plants, but separation between this region and the Dutch-speaking Flemish region would require a number of unlikely changes.

Elsewhere, there are calls to separate the north of Italy from the south, although cement plants are roughly in proportion throughout the country. In France, Brittany also has its fair share of nationalist sentiment. However, any moves here would not trouble the French operators - there are no cement plants in Brittany. Normandy is in the same situation, although a Breton would probably claim that Normandy is 'just part of France.'

The above is only a scratch on the surface. A quick internet search for 'separatist movements in Europe' leads to a large number of hits. The most illustrative of the links is this map: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_separatist_movements_in_Europe#mediaviewer/File:Active_separatist_movements_in_the_European_Union.png
It appears that many EU residents would like the map of Europe redrawn.

Looking outside of the EU, the cement industry of Texas has the largest cement industry of all US states. With huge oil reserves, a large and growing population and fast development, Texas' cement industry would thrive in the event of its secession. Discussion of this was particularly strong following the re-election of President Barack Obama in 2012.

Of course, much of the above is hypothetical... or is it? Just two year's ago nobody was talking about Scottish independence. We will find out tomorrow if Europe will get a new (Scottish) cement industry.

India: HeidelbergCement has announced that Bernd Scheifele has tendered his resignation from the position of director of HeidelbergCement India with effect from 10 September 2014. Scheifele remains chairman of HeidlerbergCement's managing board.

Africa: With effect from 1 August 2014, Demelza Mulligan has assumed the management position of Haver Southern Africa. After having completed her Master’s Degree from the Polytechnic University of Münster in Germany, she worked for the Chamber of Industry and Commerce in South Africa.

The business administration specialist joined Haver Southern Africa in 2013 as its marketing manager. Mulligan will succeed Joachim Hoppe, who directed Haver Southern Africa for three years and who laid the foundation for positive future business development for southern Africa. Hoppe is returning to his work at the Oelde-Germany headquarters, where he will found the new business unit of Bergbau / Mining.

There were two telling stories from Vietnam this week that show the level to which demand has been overestimated in the centrally-planned cement sector. Firstly, the country reported that exports in the period between January and July 2014 increased by nearly a quarter year-on-year to 13.1Mt. Secondly, the Prime Minister announced that another five cement plant projects were to be axed, following nine others that bit the dust in 2013.

All this is against a backdrop of chronic lower-than-expected domestic cement demand. When we look at the figures, it’s not hard to see that domestic consumers have had trouble consuming all the cement produced in Vietnam. The government forecast for cement production in 2015 is in the region of 75 - 76Mt. If this was spread evenly between Vietnam’s 88.8m people, each person would have to consume ~850kg of cement. That’s possible but it is quite a lot for a lower middle income economy. However, separate reports state that a 10% rise in domestic sales on 2013 levels would lead to just 60Mt of domestic cement sales in 2015. This equates to a more realistic 675kg/capita.

These figures leave a massive and increasing amount of cement for export. Read again that figure from the first seven months of 2014 – 13.1Mt – Roughly the capacity of South Africa (~12.5Mt/yr), Tunisia (12.9Mt/yr) of Colombia (12.9Mt/yr)! Also, while cement exports volumes were up by nearly a quarter, the value of those same exports rose by only 20%. This indicates a drop in export prices and represents additional pressure to halt capacity expansion.

Against a backdrop of 90Mt/yr expected capacity in 2015 and falling export prices, the latest cement project cull certainly makes sense but even in a best-case scenario the country is looking at a capacity utilisation rate of just 66 - 67%. Some cement plant project owners have even found themselves trapped by the situation. Having indebted themselves on the promise of ever-increasing cement demand, they now face the prospect of throwing good money after bad, continuing to build and operate just to service debts. This is a very unenviable position indeed. The lifting of trade restrictions within the ASEAN Community on 1 January 2015 might help export volumes, but might also also drive prices down further.

Culling new cement plant projects is one thing, but could the next step be more drastic? North of the border, China is gradually reducing its overcapacity by removing older and less efficient capacity. Perhaps Vietnam would do well to follow suit.

Announcements this week have highlighted the situation in the Egyptian cement industry, which has been bearing the brunt of increasing fuel scarcity for a while now. At first glance this appears bizzare in what is an oil-rich country but a government drive to make revenue from exports has constricted supply and led to a massive increase in fuel costs. Since the middle of 2012 Egyptian cement producers have faced a gradual decline in supplies, massive hikes in price due to the curtailment of subsidiaries and a scramble for 'alternative fuels'.... like coal!

While heavy fuel oil prices were on the rise as early as 2012, it is in 2014 that the cement industry has really begun to feel the brunt of supply cuts. January and February saw the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) cut its allocation of gas to cement producers by 35%, enough to significantly raise competition for the remaining allocation. By May 2013 this has resulted in interruptions to gas supply that closed some plants and slowed down many more. Producers were trumpeting coal as the big new 'alternative' fuel and conversion projects were announced in quick succession. Worse was to come. In June 2014 saw EGAS cut its supply to cement producers by a further 61%.

This relatively rapid turn around in fortunes has been highlighted by two announcements from the industry this week, both from the Italcementi subsidiary Suez Cement. Firstly, Suez updated the industry on its coal conversion project at its Kattameya plant. Both the timescale (completion by September 2015) and the price tag (US$23m) demonstrate the scale of the upset caused by the strangling of the gas supply. The cost implications of this investment and similar investments at three other Suez Cement plants are significant.

Secondly, Suez has announced that ItalGen (another Italcementi subsidiary) has secured a loan to construct a 200MW wind farm at Gabel El Zeit, near Hurghada, to supply its production sites with electricity. With a future target to produce 400MW (40% of Suez's electrical energy needs), this project (mooted since 2008) is a huge departure from established electrical energy sources in Egypt. It is an even larger project, estimated at US$220m. Assuming a ~US$25m price-tag for each of the four coal conversion projects, this brings Italcementi's total current Egypt 'energy stability spend' to a whopping US$320m. It is betting that the oil price trend is not going to reverse any time soon. As prices continue to rise it will be interesting to see what other solutions Egpytian cement producers come up with. The conversion of plants to take alternative or waste-derived fuels and the use of solar installations for plant electrical needs are other ways forward.

All the while, it is important to remember that Suez's projects (and those of other producers) will not be ready for several months at least. It is also important to remember that the same cement producers that are 'suffering' now have enjoyed the subsidies for many years. This makes casualties as the producers adjust to the new market realities a distinct possibility.