Global Cement News

It won't surprise anyone to know that cement sales have fallen in the west African countries that are suffering from the on-going Ebola outbreak. However the scale may yet be instructive for this and other crises that may affect the cement industry in the future. The local data that follows mostly comes from a report by the World Bank published in early October 2014 looking at short and medium term economic impacts, as well as Global Cement research conducted towards the Global Cement Directory 2015.

All three of the principal countries involved – Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea – have low gross domestic products (GDP). They do not have cement kilns but they do have grinding plants and cement import infrastructure run by both local and international firms. They also lack readily accessible limestone deposits. In the short term (in 2014) a health crisis is expected to hit manufacturing through transportation and market disruptions stemming from both direct health implications and behavioural responses.

Liberia's cement sales fell by 60% in the third quarter of 2014, a drop the World Bank attributed to causes other than the rainy season. Quarterly cement sales more than tripled in 2013 from around 10,000t to over 25,000t marking the commissioning of a new mill at the Liberia Cement Corporation (HeidelbergCement) grinding plant. Dangote also has an import terminal in the country and is building its own grinding plant. The drop in cement sales since June 2014 has nearly undone all this production growth.

Neighbouring Sierra Leone has seen a steady fall in weekly cement sales since June 2014. Similar to Liberia, it has a HeidelbergCement-run grinding plant with Dangote planning expansion soon. Guinea, which had about a sixth of the notified cases of Ebola in mid-October 2014, has seen its cement imports fall by 50% in the year so far compared to 2013.

Before readers become too depressed though, it should be considered that Nigeria has been declared Ebola free by the World Health Organisation after six weeks with no new cases. It may have been relatively expensive to contain Ebola through public health measures but the alternatives for the regional economies could have been worse. More cases are expected to arrive in Nigeria but the country has shown that Ebola can be stopped.

Immediate cement operators threatened by the epidemic include HeidelbergCement with its five grinding plants in west Africa. How an uncontrolled or high case Ebola epidemic affects Dangote's expansion plans in its 'backyard' will also be hard to predict. West Africa is the obvious place for the Nigerian cement giant to build itself up before it tackles other markets in sub-Saharan Africa that have stronger competition like South Africa's PPC. Take this market stability away and Dangote faces a direct economic threat to its growth beyond the humanitarian horror of the epidemic. What also has implications for the cement industry in Senegal, the second biggest cement producer in the region, where there are two integrated plants.

The World Bank report concludes that Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea could lose US$129m in GDP in a low case scenario or up to US$815m in a high case scenario. To give this some context, Sierra Leone's GDP was US$2.7bn in 2013. In a high case situation it could lose US$439m or an amount equivalent to 16% of its GDP in 2013. If and when the fight against Ebola turns, this still leaves a severe economic recession for the survivors in what is already one of the poorest countries in Africa. Cement, one of the indicators of a country's economic and industrial development, is intricately bound up in this.

Spain: Matteo Rozzanigo has been appointed as CEO of FYM, Italcementi's Spanish subsidiary. He is tasked with positioning the company in a cement market that is expected to stabilise and recover slowly after a prolonged crisis period. Rozzanigo replaces Mario Domenico Bracci, who held the post for the past three years and will now assume responsibilities for Ciments Maroc.

Rozzanigo holds an Industrial Engineering degree from the Polytechnic University of Milan, Italy and has been with Italcementi for 11 years. In the past five years, he was employed as Italcementi's director for the Near East, effectively managing the operations in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Spain: Lafarge has appointed Maruxa Suarez as director of its Spanish plant in Villaluenga de la Sagra, Toledo. Suarez, who was previously a production director at the plant, will replace Mariano Garcia Hoyos. Suarez started working for Lafarge in 2004 at the environment unit of the company in Madrid. He later joined the management team as process engineer and production director.

India: UltraTech Cement has appointed Atul Daga as Chief Financial Officer of the company in place of KC Birla with effect from 1 December 2014. The decision was made at a board of directors meeting on 18 October 2014. The term of appointment of the managing director OP Puranmalka was extended for a period of one year until 31 March 2016.

Angola made similar noises to Nigeria this week when one of its government ministers declared that the country was self-sufficient in terms of cement production. The comments came from Industry minister Bernarda Martins at a visit by the Angolan president to the China International Fund Luanda Cement plant. Martins' words echoed those made by Joseph Makoju, Chairman of the Cement Manufacturing Association of Nigeria, who declared that his country was making more cement than it consumed back in 2012.

Claims of self-sufficiency are all about context. A major or fast growing economy such as Nigeria declaring self-sufficiency in cement could suggest a potential paradigm shift. A smaller economy might simply have risen from a low production base to a slightly higher one with little consequence. So what does this mean for Angola?

The southern African country has a population far smaller than Nigeria at 19 million. Yet, its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, in purchasing power parity terms, was estimated to be US$6484 in 2014 by the International Monetary Fund, a figure slightly higher than Nigeria's. In nominal terms its GDP was the fifth biggest in Africa in 2013.

Global Cement Directory 2015 research (to be published in late 2014) gives Angola's four integrated cement plants with a total cement production capacity of just under 6Mt/yr. The plant the politicians have just visited has reportedly just increased its clinker capacity to 3.6Mt/yr and another 0.6Mt/yr capacity is planned to join the market when an InterCement plant expands in 2017. Together this places the country's production at around 8Mt/yr. Domestic cement demand was placed at 6.5Mt/yr in early 2014 giving the country a cement consumption of just under 350kg/capita.

Transnational African bank Ecobank declared than Angola was becoming Central Africa's cement production hub in a commodities report in July 2014. Out of the sub-Saharan countries it has become the fourth largest producer after Nigeria, South Africa and Ethiopia and the third largest consumer after Nigeria and South Africa. Angola too has restricted cement imports, like Nigeria. In 2014 the Ministry of the Economy, Industry, Commerce and Construction implemented a stoppage on imports in a phased manner under the auspices of its local cement association, the Association of Industrial Cement of Angola.

Where Angola is different to Nigeria is in the composition of the companies that produce its cement. There is no large local presence to rival Nigeria's Dangote. The former colonial links are there with a plant operated by Brazil's InterCement, who inheritied it from Portuguese company Cimpor. Of the rest, Chinese and South Korean investors figure prominently.

Finally, it is also worth noting that Angola has none of the main sub-Saharan players present including Dangote, PPC or Lafarge Africa. Roughly half-way between the African cement powerhouses of Nigeria and South Africa and with a handy coastline, Angola deserves further attention.