Analysis

Cement imports are back on the agenda this week in the Philippines with the news that the Tariff Commission has backed repealing the duties currently being implemented. If it’s anything like what happened last time, back in 2019, the commission’s opinion will once again be passed back to the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) for the final decision. The safeguard measure the commission wants to cut covers Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) and Blended Cement. It summarised the situation as follows, “There is no existence of an imminent threat of serious injury and significant overall impairment to the position of the domestic cement industry in the near future.”

The commission reviewed the sector between 2019 and 2021 and concluded that the domestic cement industry maintained its market position, increased its mill capacities, stabilised its manufacturing costs and improved its profitability. It found that local producers recovered their profits in 2021, following the coronavirus pandemic. It also noted that imports continued to rise whilst the safeguard measure was in force. Volumes of imported OPC and blended cements increased at levels above 10% year-on-year in both the 2019 – 2020 and 2020 – 2021 periods. They also rose by 7% year-on-year to 3.51Mt in the first half of 2022 compared to the half-year average from 2019 - 2021. In the commission’s view, relaxing the duties on imported cement would slow price rises for both locally produced and imported cement leading to an overall national economic benefit.

Local cement producers in the Philippines are likely to be unhappy with the Tariff Commission’s recommendation. The Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines (CEMAP) spent the summer of 2022 lobbying for the safeguard measure to be extended past October 2022. It too pointed out that imports of cement had continued to grow even whilst the increased duties had been levied from 2019. A few days before the commission’s decision was published, APO Cement said that it had temporarily suspended operations at its Davao terminal. The subsidiary of Cemex Philippines blamed imports of cement, particularly from Vietnam, for the decision.

Yet, the local sector has been active over the last year with a number of capacity upgrades being launched or underway. In January 2022 the government gave tax breaks to San Miguel Equity Investments for the construction of a 2Mt/yr cement plant in Mindanao. In February 2022 San Miguel subsidiary Southern Concrete Industries said it was doubling the capacity of an upgrade to its grinding plant at Davao del Sur, with initial commissioning planned in mid-2022. Meanwhile, Solid Cement’s upgrade of a new production line at its integrated plant in Antipolo, Rizal, has been ongoing since it officially started in 2019. The current commissioning date for the subsidiary of Cemex is now expected in early 2024. In August 2022 Taiheiyo Cement Philippines held a groundbreaking ceremony for the start of construction of a new production line at its integrated San Fernando plant in Cebu. The US$85m project is due to be commissioned in mid-2024. Finally, importer Philcement revealed in late September 2022 that it had taken out a US$1.73m loan for an expansion and upgrades to its Mariveles cement terminal in Bataan.

Holcim Philippines’ president and chief executive officer Horia Adrain told local press in July 2022 that the cement sector was continuing to recover in 2022, following the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, but that the pace would be slower. And so it proved, with reduced revenue, earnings and profits reported by Holcim for the first half of 2022. Costs rose due to higher fuel and energy prices like elsewhere in the world but a construction ban in connection with the presidential election in May 2022 didn’t help either. Both CRH and Cemex Philippines reported a similar situation in their financial results. However, Eagle Cement did manage to raise its revenue in the same period.

The Tariff Commission has been explicit with its opinion about the impact of imports upon the local cement sector. Investment by the local producers has been forthcoming with a number of new plants and upgrades on the way. Finally, despite the market recovering since 2020, there has been less growth in the first half of 2022 due to global energy prices and the country’s elections. This last point has handed a gift to the cement producers as any further reductions in growth can be blamed on imports, whether it is connected or not. One thing is certain, if or when the safeguard measures are lifted, then the regular calls to restrict imports will resume just like they did prior to 2019.

Cemento Yura said it was considering expanding cement and lime production this week. The announcement, made in an interview to business newspaper Gestión, follows a strong second quarter for the subsidiary of Grupo Gloria with clinker production volumes jumping up by 36% year-on-year to 0.51Mt. Overall for the half-year its clinker and cement production rose by 12.8% year-on-year to 0.86Mt and 12.7% to 1.47Mt. The success was attributed to consistent demand from the domestic sector as well as various large-scale mining projects. Julio Cáceres, the commercial director for its Cement, Concrete and Lime Division in Peru, Chile and Bolivia, wouldn’t say where the company was considering heading next, other than that remarking that it was attentive to new markets.

As Cáceres’ job title implies Cemento Yura also operates cement plants outside of Peru. At home it runs one integrated plant in the south of the country near to Arequipa as well as a lime plant at Juliaca. Outside of Peru though it also runs two integrated plants and a grinding unit in Bolivia, via its Sociedad Boliviana de Cemento (SOBOCE) subsidiary, and two integrated plants in Ecuador, via its Union Cementera Nacional (UCEM) subsidiary. The company also has assorted concrete assets. The international aspect to Cemento Yura’s business is interesting given that the larger cement producers in Peru are dominant in different parts of the country with Cementos Pacasmayo in the north, UNACEM (Unión Andina de Cementos) in the centre around Lima and Cemento Yura in the south. Notably, UNACEM also runs a plant in Ecuador and one in Arizona, US. It is also worth mentioning that competition issues have been reported in the local market previously. In mid-2021 Peru’s competition authority, the National Institute of the Defense of Competition and Intellectual Property Protection (INDECOPI), investigated Cemento Yura.

Cemento Yura’s rise in clinker production in the second quarter of 2022 is worth considering because in a previous interview with the local press Humberto Nadal, the chief executive officer of Cementos Pacasmayo, said that importing clinker had become more expensive in 2021. Subsequently, the company started a US$70m upgrade at its Pacasmayo plant to increase its production capacity by 0.6Mt/yr. In its second quarter financial results for 2022 Cementos Pacasmayo directly credited a 27% increase in its earnings on higher operating profits arising from decreasing costs by using less imported clinker. Sure enough data from Association of Cement Producers (ASOCEM) shows that both cement and clinker imports started to fall in October 2021 and have mostly followed a downward trend since then. Clinker imports fell by 41% year-on-year to 0.66Mt from January to August 2022 compared to the same period in 2021.

Graph 1: Cement production in Peru, 2014 – present. Source. Association of Cement Producers (ASOCEM).

Looking at the wider picture in Peru, cement production has stayed fairly consistent since 2014 at around 10Mt/yr. An upward trend probably started in 2019 but then the Covid-19 pandemic cut it off in the first half of 2022 before the market surged back in the second half of that year. 2021 was a good year with production peaking at 12.9Mt. So far the first eight months of 2022 have seen production rise by 5.3% year-on-year to 8.64Mt.

In summary, cement production is rising in Peru, importing clinker appears to have become more expensive for at least one of the producers and some of the larger local companies are investing in new production capacity, considering it or thinking about acquisitions elsewhere. Local clinker producers appear to be in a good place; clinker importers, or those reliant on it, not so much.

Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote was spotted attending the inauguration ceremony of Kenyan President William Ruto earlier in September 2022. This is relevant because Dangote’s cement company previously announced plans in 2016 to build two 1.5Mt/yr plants in Kenya, near Nairobi and Mombasa respectively. They were intended to become operational by 2021. Unfortunately, Dangote himself allegedly described Kenya as being more corrupt than Nigeria to Kenyan broadcast journalist Jeff Koinange a few years later and nothing more happened. Back in 2014 Ruto visited Dangote Cement’s Obajana plant in Kogi state in Nigeria when the politician was the Deputy President of Kenya. Dangote’s attendance at the presidential inauguration this month suggests at the very least that his relationship with Ruto remains active. Maybe more news on those planned plants will follow.

Graph 1: Cement in Kenya, 2018 – June 2022. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

The reason why the owner of Africa’s largest cement company might be interested in the Kenyan market can be seen in its latest cement production figures. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that production for the first half of 2022 grew by 20% year-on-year to 4.95Mt in the first half of 2022, from 4.12Mt in the same period in 2021. Cement production was broadly similar in 2018 and 2019 at around 6Mt. It then increased by 25% to 9.25Mt in 2021 from 7.41Mt in 2020. On a rolling annual basis, production picked up at the start of 2020 and has risen consistently since then each month, peaking at over 10Mt in May 2022.

However, the elections in August 2022 probably slowed this growth trend, despite being much more peaceful than those in 2007, although the KNBS is yet to release the data. Bamburi Cement said in its outlook for the second half of 2022 that it expected markets to recover after the ballot. The subsidiary of Holcim reported increasing turnover in the first half of 2022, due to mounting sales volumes and price rises, but its profit fell sharply. It blamed this on fuel and logistics inflation, growing clinker import costs as well as negative currency exchange effects.

That last point about imported clinker is worth noting given that a government report in late 2021 found that the country had a clinker shortage of up to 3.3Mt/yr. Yet, the KNBS data in recent years shows that cement production and consumption are broadly similar, suggesting that the shortfall in clinker is being imported. The report added that 59% of the imported clinker originated from Egypt, tariff free, due to a free trade agreement. Local producers were reported to have been operating at a 65% capacity utilisation rate. Egypt and the UAE accounted for most of the imported clinker followed by Saudi Arabia. An interview in the Standard newspaper at this time with Bamburi Cement’s managing director Seddiq Hassani revealed that, despite locally produced clinker being cheaper than imported clinker, some producers were reluctant to hand control of a key input material over to their local competitors. Other producers, predictably, were trying to persuade the government to raise the duty on imports of clinker from 10% to 25%. Tariff discussions have continued in 2022.

So far in 2022 the other big stories in the sector have included Bamburi Cement’s plans to build two solar power plants and a major repair to the kiln shell at East Africa Portland Cement’s (EAPCC) Athi River cement plant. The solar plants will be built next to Bamburi Cement’s integrated Mombasa plant and its Nairobi grinding plant. Once operational in 2023 they are anticipated to supply up to 40% of the cement producer’s total power supply. Devki Group, the owner of National Cement, also announced plans in August 2022 to set up a wind farm near Mombasa. However, this seems more like an attempt to diversify the group into electricity production rather than to supply its own plant near Nairobi. EAPCC’s upgrade project has completed this week after about a month and half of work. It is intended to increase the plant’s cement production by 50%.

Cement production started in rise in 2020 but the Covid-19 pandemic may have constrained this. Production (and consumption) then jumped up in 2021 and looks set to do similar in 2022 bar a possible blip from the elections in August 2022. This is despite the global market issues arising from the end of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. These may be uncertain times but the fundamentals for the Kenyan cement market look positive despite rising end prices. Unsurprisingly, it looks likely that Dangote Cement remains keen to extend its business to Kenya.

HeidelbergCement’s latest sustainability target has been to reduce the ‘cement’ footprint from its own name. From this week it has become Heildelberg Materials. Of the top ten global cement producers in Global Cement Magazine’s roundup in the December 2021 issue only three now have the word ‘cement’ in their names.

In Heildelberg Materials’ own words, the “new brand identity underlines the company's pioneering role on the path to carbon neutrality and digitalisation in the building materials industry.” Chair Dominik von Achten then goes on to explain that the company is proud of its cement business but its range of services goes far beyond cement. This is certainly true but in 2021 the cement business generated 44% of the group’s revenue. 19% came from aggregates, 25% from ready-mixed concrete plus asphalt and the remaining 12% from services and other lines.

Yet, Heidelberg Materials is also a leader in driving innovation in carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) for the cement sector with a full production line capture unit planned for commissioning in 2024 at the Brevik plant in Norway. When it opens it will be the only full scale CCUS unit at a cement plant anywhere in the world. The group further plans to reduce the CO₂ footprint of its cementitious products to below 500kg/t CO₂ by 2030 and aims to generate half of its revenue from low-carbon products. These are not small achievements or ambitions.

Meanwhile, Holcim completed the divestment of its Indian business to Adani Group this week for US$6.4bn. For Holcim the move marks a milestone in the reshaping of its business away from developing markets and the diversification on its product lines into light (and more sustainable) building materials. So why would a company like Adani Group move into the cement sector when multinationals are getting out?

Money is the obvious answer and the one group owner Gautam Adani raised at a speech marking his latest mega-acquisition. He said, “Our entry into this business is happening at a time when India is on the cusp of one of the greatest economic surges seen in the modern world.” He expects his new cement arm to become the most profitable cement producer in the country although his competitors may have other ideas. As well as operational efficiency, Adani also plans to inject US$2.5bn into the business as part of plans to increase its production capacity to 140Mt/yr in the next five years, from around 70Mt/yr at present. However, the financial press in India and elsewhere has wondered how much debt Adani Group can cope with and whether it will consolidate its latest acquisitions or simply use them to buy into even more sectors. Time will tell.

Lastly, it should be noted that Adani Group’s new rival UltraTech Cement has targeted a production capacity of 154Mt/yr by 2025. Any growth in the Indian market will clearly be contested. It is also worth noting that the latter company has retained ‘cement’ in its name. For now at least.

Argos Honduras revealed this week that it has been testing the injection of hydrogen into the kiln of its integrated Piedras Azules cement plant. It has completed a pilot with Portugal-based company UTIS. As part of the process it has been trialling, it has split water by electrolysis and then injected the hydrogen and oxygen directly into the kiln via the main burner. The pilot has reportedly increased clinker production and reduced petcoke consumption at the plant.

Argos is far from alone in using hydrogen in this way. At the end of August 2022 Cemex said that it was also starting to use hydrogen at its San Pedro de Macorís cement plant in the Dominican Republic. CRH UK-subsidiary Tarmac completed a trial in July 2022 using hydrogen as an alternative to natural gas at its Tunstead lime plant. HeidelbergCement UK-subsidiary Hanson also ran a successful trial using hydrogen as part of the fuel mix at its Ribblesdale cement plant in 2021. The government-funded trial used a combination of hydrogen (39%), meat and bone meal (12%) and glycerine (49%) to reach a 100% alternative fuels substitution rate. In 2021 Hanson reported that fuel switching to hydrogen could help it reduce its 2050 CO₂ emissions by about 3%, or by -35kg CO₂/t of cement product.

Cemex appears to be a leader in using hydrogen in this way. The Mexico-based company started injecting hydrogen in 2019 and retrofitted all of its European cement plants with the technology to do so in 2020. It then said it wanted to roll this out to the rest of its operations. The project in the Dominican Republic is an example of this. In February 2022 it announced an investment in HiiROC, a UK-based company that has developed a method using thermal plasma electrolysis to convert biomethane, flare gas, or natural gas into hydrogen. The stated aim of this investment was to increase Cemex's hydrogen injection capacity in its cement kilns and to increase its alternative fuel substitution rate. Back in 2020 Cemex said that it planned to use hydrogen injection to contribute 5% of its progress towards its 2030 CO₂ emissions reduction target along with other measures such as increasing its thermal substitution rate and reducing its clinker factor.

As can be seen above there are a number of examples of hydrogen injection being used in cement plants in Europe and the Americas. However, there is very little actual data available publicly at this stage on how much hydrogen that the plants are actually using. For example, Cemex may have hydrogen injection equipment installed at all of its plants in Europe but it is unclear how many plants are actually using it. This is understandable though, given how commercially sensitive the fuel mix of a cement plant is and in Cemex’s case if it wishes to maintain a leader’s advantage in using a new technology.

It is interesting to see, in what has been released so far, the focus on doing deals with companies that supply electrolysis technology such as HiiROC and UTIS. A feasibility study ahead of the Hanson trial at Ribblesdale by the MPA, Cinar and the VDZ suggested that upgrading a kiln burner and adding all the necessary hydrogen storage and pipework could cost at least Euro400,000. However, this study also pointed out that the cost of hydrogen made a big difference to the cost of the CO₂ saving from using it as an alternative fuel. Hence the focus on the technology partners. It will be interesting to see how many more hydrogen injection projects are announced in the coming months and years and, crucially, who is providing the technology to supply the hydrogen.

For more information on the use of hydrogen in cement production see the proceedings from the 15th Global CemFuels Conference & Exhibition where presentations on the topic were given by Cemex and the VDZ