Analysis

Stop press! The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has renamed itself as the American Cement Association (ACA).

Speaking to the audience at the IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Industry Cement Conference taking place this week in Birmingham, Alabama, ACA president Mike Ireland said that the new name better represents its members, from the Atlantic seaboard to the Pacific coast. He added that the old name, the PCA, had caused the association confusion over the years with it being mistaken as only representing Portland, Oregon, or Portland, Maine.

This follows comments from Ireland to Global Cement Magazine in April 2024. At that time he also mentioned how changing levels of production of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) compared to blended cements had suggested a rethink. Surveys were then sent out by the PCA asking people what they thought about in connection to the association and which name suggestions they liked. A year or so later and the new name has arrived. Thankfully the PCA didn’t determine the name by public ballot alone, thereby avoiding the risk of a joke name. Readers wondering about this can remind themselves about the time the UK Natural Environment Research Council ran a website survey asking what a new polar research ship should be called. The vessel was eventually called the RRS Sir David Attenborough rather than the internet’s choice of Boaty McBoatface!

Global Cement Weekly also reflected upon the point Ireland made about the change in the blends of cement being used. The adoption of Portland Limestone Cement (PLC) production in the US contributed to the rise in blended cements shipments. United States Geological Survey (USGS) data shows that shipments of blended cements more than doubled from 26Mt in 2022 to 61Mt in 2024. This compares to shipments of OPC of 41Mt in 2024. This change appears to have been mostly accepted so far, but it is not without its detractors. For example, take this campaign promoting a return to traditional Type I and II cements on ‘performance’ grounds.

As for the US cement market, USGS data shows that shipments of Portland and blended cement fell by about 13% year-on-year to 11.8Mt in the first two months of 2025 from 13.8Mt in the same period in 2024. This was for both domestic shipments and imports. Most of the cement companies that have so far released first quarter financial results for 2025 reported poor weather adversely affecting sales. Holcim noted that sales improved in March 2025. Cemex blamed its lower sales volumes of cement and ready-mixed concrete on the period having one less working day compared to 2024. CRH pointed out in its analysts’ presentation that the first quarter of the year is typically the smallest of the four in terms of sales volumes. The really interesting data may start to emerge in the second and subsequent quarters, as the markets and supply chains start to react to current US trade policy. At the time of writing, widespread tariffs on many countries were announced at the start of April 2025 but then subsequently paused for 90 days.

The American Cement Association has a new name for the 21st Century. The PCA has served it well as a name for over 100 years, but now seems a good time for a change. Whether the future is one of blended cements, carbon capture, a return to OPC or whatever else remains to be seen. Yet the future of construction in the US looks set to involve plenty of cement. There are sure to be challenges along the way. Here’s to the next 100 years.

Anhui Conch Cement held an event in Wuhu, China, this week showcasing its new artificial intelligence (AI) model for the cement sector. The cement company and Huawei started the project in April 2024 with the support of the China Building Materials Federation. The companies say they have now identified over 200 “promising AI application scenarios across 15 categories” across the entire production process from quarrying to packaging and logistics. Conch has set up an AI training centre using the Huawei Cloud Stack product. It is using Huawei’s Pangu prediction, computer vision (CV) and natural language processing (NLP) models to create an AI operating system that integrates central training, edge inference, cloud-edge synergy, continuous learning and ongoing optimisation.

Thankfully Huawei gave some examples of what this actually meant for operators in the real world. The model is able to give real-time recommendations of key quality features enabling the prediction of three-day and 28-day clinker strength. The predicted strength values closely match test results, with deviations within 1MPa and an accuracy rate exceeding 85%. Other benefits include reducing kiln fuel consumption by 1%, monitoring and managing various components and machines along the production line, staff safety gains and creating a ‘smart digital assistant’ that can answer technical questions from employees.

Little of this seems particularly novel, so far, compared to what other companies are already doing in this field. For example, ABB said in early 2022 that it was using machine learning to predict 28-day strength on the day of sampling and in 2023 that it was doing it using production data provided every two - three hours. Another example is the work that Inform does using AI-based software to support logistics for heavy building materials. Plenty of other western-based companies also offer production optimisation and/or predictive maintenance products.

Conch’s use of an NLP model to create a knowledge base assistant does seem new for the cement sector. Although how specific the software running it might be to one business or industrial area remains to be seen. One could easily imagine this kind of product being sold to lots of different kinds of industries in the manner of current enterprise style software. Along these lines though, Juan Beltrán, digital manager of global sales excellence at Holcim, told McKinsey in an interview about Holcim’s pilot project in Spain testing an AI-enabled copilot customer-ordering assistant via WhatsApp.

Recent events in AI for the cement sector include ABB’s agreement to work with UK-based Carbon Re in late 2024. This collaboration was intended to combine ABB's expertise in automation and process control with Carbon Re's AI and machine learning technologies. It followed a pilot at a cement plant in the Czech Republic. On the producer side, Holcim said in mid-2024 that it was preparing to expand the use of AI-based software to 100 production plants by 2028. It noted that it had installed the system at 45 plants so far at the time of this announcement and that it was using a predictive maintenance solution from software supplier C3 AI. Titan Cement said that it had invested in Spain-based AI software supplier Optimitive in February 2025. Then, Cemex announced this week that it too had invested in Optimitive, via its corporate venture capital arm Cemex Ventures. Molins has also worked with Optimitive.

What isn't being disclosed much are the examples of the mistakes of introducing AI into cement production. These are valuable learning opportunities for any company implementing this kind of software. However, the developers and cement producers are extremely unlikely to admit anything publicly. Global Cement Weekly has heard off-the-record information previously about AI projects at cement plants that have gone wrong but we can’t reveal it either. To his credit though Beltrán mentions an incident, in his interview with McKinsey, where the WhatsApp ordering assistant was tricked during testing into almost placing an order for a truck of gazpacho soup!

We’re still watching how AI is being deployed in heavy industries such as cement. The announcement by Conch is exactly the kind of thing its peers are doing around the world. So far what they’ve done is impressive but not unique. Yet, China’s large but shrinking cement sector and its determination to develop its own AI-based software sector may start to deliver more cutting-edge advances in the future. Companies elsewhere are also pressing ahead to find out how AI products will deliver efficiency gains.

Sectoral adjustment continued for the cement industry in China in 2024. Now that the financial results from many of the larger China-based cement producers are out it gives Global Cement Weekly a chance to review the world’s biggest cement market. The decline in national output of cement accelerated in 2024 and the results showed this. CNBM summed up the situation as follows: “In 2024, affected by the reduction of real estate investment and the slowdown of infrastructure projects, the cement industry in China was caught in a situation of insufficient demand and aggravated overcapacity.” Output dropped by just under 10% year-on-year to 1.83Bnt in 2024 according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). This is the fourth consecutive annual decline and the lowest figure the sector has experienced since around 2010.

Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2024. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

The China Cement Association’s (CCA) assessment concurred with CNBM. Although it detected a slowing in the decline in the second half of 2024, especially in the fourth quarter. It noted that the country has a production capacity of 1.81Bnt/yr and an estimated clinker utilisation rate of 53% in 2024. Note the large apparent difference this may suggest between the NBS and CCA figures. Data from the NBS for the first quarter of 2025 has shown a slowing of the decline. Output was 331Mt, a fall of just 1.7% year-on-year from the same period in 2023. The CCA’s prediction for 2025 is that cement demand will fall by 5% as the real estate market continues to deflate. However, it expects government-led capacity reduction schemes to start making progress.

Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

CNBM’s sales revenue fell by 14% to US$24.8bn in 2024. Sales of its Basic Building Materials segment fell by 23% to US$12.5bn. This was blamed on falling volumes and prices of cement and other heavy building materials. Sales from the group’s two other segments - New Materials and Engineering Technology Services - rose modestly but this wasn’t enough to hold up total group sales. Operating profit from the Basic Building Materials segment decreased by 45% to US$544m. It was a similar picture at Anhui Conch with sales revenue and net profit down by 36% to US$12.4bn and by 25% to US$1.01bn respectively. Notably, CNBM’s sales volumes of cement decreased by 21% to 245Mt in 2024 compared to a decrease of 6.5% to 268Mt by Anhui Conch. This made Anhui Conch the world’s biggest cement company by sales volumes in 2024.

Tangshan Jidong Cement and China Resources Building Materials Technology (CRBMT) both reported a similar situation. Revenue was down and a net loss was reported by the former. Both revenue and net profit were down for the latter. CRBMT said that its cement capacity utilisation rate was 69% in 2024, down from 71% in 2023. This appears to be significantly higher than the national rate mentioned above by the CCA but the company’s regional distribution may be at play here.

Following from recent years, Huaxin Cement bucked the general market trend and its revenue rose modestly to US$4.7bn in 2024. Its net profit still fell by 12.5% to US$330m. Its overseas businesses made the difference. It reported an increase of 37% to 16.2Mt in overseas cement sales with its non-China cement production capacity rising by 8% to 22.5Mt/yr. Milestones include various new or upgraded plant projects in Sub-Saharan Africa capped off by its announcement at the end of 2024 that it was preparing to buy Lafarge Africa. Other cement companies were also keen to promote overseas activity. CNBM said that the first signing of overseas merger and acquisition was achieved in 2024. This is likely to be the purchase of the Djebel El Oust cement plant in Tunisia from Votorantim Cimentos that was completed in late March 2025. Tangshan Jidong Cement acquired the remaining 40% share in South Africa-based Mamba Cement in April 2024.

All of this leaves the cement sector in China still waiting for the market to stabilise. US tariffs seem unlikely to have an effect in any meaningful way unless the general economy is altered. The declining real estate sector and cement production overcapacity are the main drivers at the national level. The CCA expects the real estate market to continue to fall in 2025 although it hopes that government remedy measures will start to show an effect. It is more optimistic about capacity reduction plans. One route towards this is through merger and acquisition activity. In a recent response to investors about industry integration, Huaxin Cement speculated that the sector might consolidate down to 30 companies from around 300 at present. There is clearly still a way to go.

It’s been a strong start to 2025 for the Brazilian cement sector. The National Cement Industry Union (SNIC) reported recently that cement sales in the first quarter of 2025 have been the strongest since 2015. Producers sold 15.6Mt in the three month period, a rise of 5.9% year-on-year from 14.7Mt in the same period in 2024.

The result has been attributed to a growing real estate market boosted by housing schemes such as the ongoing Minha Casa Minha Vida programme. SNIC also noted a growing labour market and wage increases, although sales from infrastructure projects failed to keep up. Unfortunately, SNIC is wary of whether the positive news will continue in the second half of 2025. Risks such as interest rates, growing general debt levels and the effects of any potential international trade wars all lie ahead.

Graph 1: Cement production in Brazil, 2017 - 2024. Production estimated for 2024 based on National Cement Industry Union (SNIC) preliminary data on sales. Source: SNIC.

Based on preliminary SNIC data from December 2024, the country likely had its best year in 2024 since the market peaked in the mid-2010s. Cement sales were reported to have risen by 3.9% to 64.7Mt in 2024. Consumption was 73Mt. An estimate of production based on the same rate of growth suggests that cement production may have grown to 69Mt in 2024 from 66.5Mt in 2023.

The three main cement companies - Votorantim Cimentos, InterCement and CSN - each reported domestic earnings growth in 2024. In Votorantim’s case net revenue in Brazil was flat in 2024 at US$1.39bn but its adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased by 4% year-on-year to US$390m supported by higher prices, volumes and lower costs. InterCement has been in a debt resolution process since December 2024, which will be discussed below. Its sales volumes of cement were flat at 8.6Mt and sales revenue fell by 6.6% to US$557m. Yet, adjusted EBITDA rose by 10.2% to US$135m. CSN’s sales volumes of cement increased by 5.9% to 13.5Mt and its cement business sales revenue by 5.7% to US$810m. However, its adjusted EBITDA zoomed ahead by 39.5% to US$231m. The group attributed its higher sales volumes of cement to its strategy of focusing on logistics and distribution centres to target new markets, build market share and boost synergies.

As covered by Global Cement Weekly previously, InterCement has been trying to sell assets since at least the early 2010s. High debt levels have been a problem more recently and the company entered into judicial recovery, a court-led debt recovery process, in December 2024. How this process plays out should inform the nature of any subsequent divestment of assets. InterCement attempted to sell its subsidiary in Argentina, Loma Nega, to CSN in 2024. Unfortunately, this reportedly failed due to the appreciation of Loma Negra and due to disagreements between bondholders and shareholders of parent company Mover, according to the Valor Econômico newspaper. At home in Brazil, Buzzi, CSN, Huaxin Cement, Polimix, Vicat and Votorantim have all been linked to a potential sale of InterCement assets in a piecemeal fashion. Votorantim, in particular, is expected to face opposition from the local competition regulator CADE if it attempted to buy all of InterCement’s cement plants.

It’s positive to see the cement industry in Brazil starting to reach the sales levels last recorded in 2014. SNIC, understandably, isn't taking anything for granted. It’s warned of more modest growth in 2025, compared to the strong opening quarter, with levels forecast to be somewhere between 1 - 1.5%. It says that this will depend on the “evolution of the economy, monetary policy and investments in infrastructure and housing.” It has also warned of “uncertainties arising from the US.” The other big ‘if’ is whether InterCement can actually start selling cement plants in 2025. Time will tell.

President Trump said he was going to do it… and he did. The US announced tariffs on most imports on 2 April 2025 that took effect from 5 April 2025. So, once again, we ask what the consequences of this might be upon the cement sector.

Table 1: Estimated burden of US tariffs on selected countries importing cement based on 2024 data. Source: Based on USGS data.

Global Cement Magazine Editorial Director Robert McCaffrey posted a similar table to the one above on LinkedIn on 4 April 2025. It applies the new import tariffs to the value of imported hydraulic cement and clinker to the US in 2024 as reported by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). As such it gives us a starting idea of how the new tariffs might change what happens in 2025. For an idea of the volumes of cement imported to the US in recent years refer to the graph in GCW695.

However, a couple of key caveats were pointed out by commentators to that LinkedIn post. Marty Ozinga noted that the values from the USGS are customs values. Crucially, he said that the tariffs will be charged upon the FOB value of cement at the point of origin and not on the transport costs. This is significant because the cost of moving the cement can sometimes be more than half the total values reported in the table for certain countries. Another commentator wanted to make it clear that tariffs on imports are imposed upon the supply chain and are paid somewhere along it, typically by end users, rather than the originating country. Elsewhere, the feeling was very much one of waiting to see what would happen next and how markets would reorder.

Taken at face value, the first takeaway from Table 1 is that the variable tariffs disrupt the competitiveness of the importers. Any importer from a country with the lowest rate, 10%, now has an advantage over those with higher ones. Türkiye seems to be the obvious winner here as it was both the largest importer of cement in 2024 and it has the lowest rate. Vietnam appears to be a loser with a massive 46% rate. Canada and Mexico may have problems with a 25% tariff but how their cement gets to the US market may make a big difference as Ozinga mentions above. And so it goes down the list. What may be significant is how the order of the importers further down the list changes. For example, Algeria has a 30% rate compared to Egypt’s 10%. Both nations exported a similar volume of cement to the US in 2024.

The first casualty of the last week has been market certainty. The US announced the tariffs and stock markets slumped around the world. They started to revive on 8 April 2025 as the US government made more reassuring noises about trade talks but this was dampened by renewed fears of a US - China trade war. The orthodox economic view is that the US tariffs are increasingly likely to cause a recession in the US in the short term regardless of whether they have a more positive effect on the longer one. This view can be detected in former PCA economist Ed Sullivan’s latest independent report on the US economy. He acknowledged the fairness argument the US government has made, but warned of stagflation.

On the US construction market, prices look set to rise in areas that previously relied on imports or are near to them. Cement companies in the US should be able to sell higher volumes as some level of domestic production outcompetes imports. The sector produced 86Mt in 2024 and has a capacity of 120Mt/yr giving it a utilisation rate of 72%. It imported 20 - 25Mt of cement in 2024. One sign of this happening might be renewed investment in local capacity through upgrades, new lines and even new plants. However, a recession would reduce overall consumption. On the equipment side, there is likely to be a similar readjustment between local and foreign suppliers. Certainly, if the tariffs stick around then more non-US companies may be tempted to set up local subsidiaries and /or manufacturing bases if conditions permit. For example, note JCB’s doubling in size this week of a plant it is building in Texas. One interesting situation might occur if a US cement company wants to build a new production line. All the likely suppliers, at present at least, appear to be based outside of the US.

Finally, despite everything, Holcim declared this week that it had completed a $3.4bn bond offering ahead of the impending spin-off of Amrize in the US noting “strong investor interest in the future company.” It wants to shore-up confidence ahead of the creation of the new company at some point in the first half of the year. Holcim’s CEO said previously that he didn’t expect any blowback from tariffs as the company was a local business in the US. What may be worth watching for is whether the current disruption to stock markets causes any delays to the creation of Amrize.

The current situation with the tariffs is prompting a rapid-revaluation of the US construction market and the wider economy. US-based building materials companies look set to benefit but there may be disruption along the way. Foreign companies supplying the sector may well experience sharp changes in circumstances depending on how tariffs reorder supply chains. Prices for end-users look set to rise. We live in interesting times.

For Ed Sullivan’s take on the US cement sector read his article in the May 2025 issue of Global Cement Magazine