Friday saw the news that many have long suspected: China is producing too much cement. Liu Ming, an official with the department of industry within the National Development and Reform Commission, announced that China faces national overcapacity in the next five years.
For anyone used to reading the permanently good news from China's cement industry this is a massive jolt. The natural reaction to dealing with industrial news from a command-style economy is to assume that everything is 'airbrushed'. This then demands the question: how much trouble is the Chinese cement industry really in?
Despite persistent rumours querying how long China's unparallelled growth could last, official responses have only appeared in the last two months. First the environment ministry announced stricter rules regarding nitrogen oxide emissions from cement plants in February 2012. Commentators suggested that the move could wipe out a third of the industry's profits. Shortly afterwards FLSmidth, entered the Chinese environmental control technology market.
In early March 2012 Premier Wen Jiabao lowered China's growth target for 2012, signalling public political acceptance of an inevitable economic 'soft landing'. Then in late March 2012 analysts' reports emerged predicting that each of China's main producers would suffer weakened profits in 2012. Only CNBM, China's biggest producer, appears to have bucked this trend. It announced that it expected its net profit to jump more than 100% compared to 2011. However the general uncertainty regarding statistics from China throws doubt on how realistic this forecast may be.
Yet before we give up hope it's worth remembering that opportunity abounds in a market as gargantuan as China. The rest of 2012 will be an interesting period for the Chinese cement industry.
Lafarge appoints senior leaders in Canada as part of geographical restructuring
Written by Global Cement staffCanada: René Thibault and Bob Cartmel have been appointed by the Lafarge Group as its senior leaders for all markets and product lines in Canada. Thibault will oversee the four western Provinces and three Territories as well as the Pacific north west and the Dakotas in the US. Cartmel will oversee the six Eastern Provinces.
Thibault has over 20 years of experience with Lafarge in Canada, which has included an assignment at the Lafarge group headquarters in Paris, France. He has an Engineering degree from Queen's University in Ontario and has completed executive studies at Harvard Business School in the US.
Cartmel has over 25 years of experience with Lafarge spanning Canada, the United States and Latin America. He has a Bachelor of Business Administration degree from Wilfrid Laurier University in Ontario.
Lafarge said that the appointments, which are part of its wider geographical restructuring programme to bring all of Lafarge's businesses together under a single leader in each geographical area, would provide further career development opportunities for employees, strengthen the company's customer approach as it delivers sustainable solutions to the construction industry and allow its community investment projects to be more focused.
It's official: the big boys are heading to India this week.
First Lafarge head Bruno Lafont announced broad expansion plans in the subcontinent. Then a Holcim presentation emerged from earlier in 2012 projecting that the company expects India's overall construction market to take the global third position after China and the US by 2020.
With the Indian construction share set to rise from US$360bn in 2010 to US$840bn in 2020 that's one massive market share up for grabs. Throw in some interpretation from India's 2011 census and the signs are that its population could overtake China's by 2030. Sounds like an absolutely perfect opportunity for your average embattled European cement corporation!
Except that there's no such thing as a sure bet. As we covered previously, Indian cement consumption fell for the first time in 20 years in August 2011. The cause was put down to political problems holding up infrastructure in key states. In March 2012 we've had two stories that have impacted upon the local industry. First the Railway Board of India hiked the freight rates by 24%. Then the Union Budget for 2012-13 increased the excise and service tax. Clearly everybody wants a piece of the 'inevitable' bonanza. If anything impedes India's growth in the next decade there may be bargains going for cement on the export market.
Elsewhere this week we have stories on the potential cost of a proposed air pollution ruling upon two plants in the US state of Montana, more information on a revival in the Gulf Cooperation Council region and more capacity growth in Indonesia.
Lund appointed new Group Executive Vice President of FLSmidth
Written by Global Cement staffDenmark: Carsten R Lund will be appointed new Group Executive Vice President of FLSmidth and a member of the Group Executive Management in July 2012. He will replace Christian Jepsen, who will be joining Alcoa, one of FLSmidth's global mining customers. Lund will be heading the new global Bulk Materials Division that was formed as part of the new FLSmidth Group structure announced in February 2012.
Lund, age 49, is a Danish citizen, Executive MBA and Mechanical Engineer (BSc.), who has been employed by the FLSmidth Group for 24 years in varying managerial positions. Most recently, Lund has headed the implementation of a major business system program for the entire FLSmidth group as program director. Prior to that, he was CEO of FLSmidth Airtech from 2007-2011 and responsible for growing and developing FLSmidth's Air Pollution Control business to become a major global player.
Reporting the annual results for Turkish cement producer Adana Çimento opened up an issue familiar from many of the international big players' annual reports last year: currency fluctuations.
The conversion rate between the US dollar and the Turkish lira rose from US$1 to Turkish lire 1.55 at the end of 2010 to US$1 to Turkish lira 1.89 at the end of 2011. This created the alarming situation where the company's annual sales rose by 3% from 2010 to 2011 if you measured it in Turkish lira, but fell by 15% if you measured it in US dollars!
Great news for currency speculators playing with so-called 'hot money' but not so great for manufacturers seeking stable trading conditions. As for the company's shareholders, if they are paid their dividend in Turkish lira then it's the value of the lira that is important. If the shareholders have to change Turkish lira into their own 'foreign' currency in order to spend it (or keep it in the bank), into dollars for example, then that's when they could lose out.
This is particularly bad news for a country like Turkey with its strong export market. Although looking at the nation's top export destinations in 2010 reveals a roll call of instability, including Iraq, Syria, Libya and Egypt. Regardless of the price, these countries are going to need cement when the dust settles from ongoing political turmoil, something we also cover in another story this week with reports of striking at Egyptian plants. Cement isn't likely to be coming from Saudi Arabia though, which we see is enjoying demand driven by government-funded construction projects.
Elsewhere this week we have stories on the impact of the Indian Budget on the cement industry, yet more Dangote projects in Cameroon and Liberia and promising signs from Taiheiyo in Japan.
France: Gerard Lamarche, managing director of Groupe Bruxelles Lambert, will be appointed to the board of Lafarge at a meeting on 15 May 2012. He will replace Thierry de Rudder.
Lamarche, aged 50, graduated from the University of Louvain-la-Neuve in Belgium. He also completed the advanced management programme at the INSEAD Business School. He began his professional career in 1983 with Deloitte Haskins & Sells in Belgium, and became mergers and acquisition consultant in the Netherlands in 1987.
From 1995 he became the special projects advisor to the president and secretary of the Suez board of directors and participated in the merger between Compagnie de Suez and Lyonnaise des Eaux in 1997. He was later appointed the new Group's senior vice president in charge of planning, control and accounts management. He was appointed senior executive vice president – finance of the Suez Group in 2004, becoming executive vice president, CFO of GDF SUEZ, and member of the Management and Executive Committees of the GDF SUEZ Group in July 2008. Lamarche is also a director of Total and Legrand.
Last week Lafarge received a US$20m slap-in-the-face for cartel-like activity in South Africa. The case, which has been running since 2008, has investigated dealings at Lafarge, Pretoria Portland Cement, AfriSam and Natal Portland Cement-Cimpor. Yet the question remains: are cartels ever a good thing for the industry?
Back in December 2011 we covered the Common Price Agreement (CPA) in an article on cement price trends in the UK in Global Cement Magazine. This legally-approved cartel, operated by the UK Cement Makers' Federation, ran from 1934 until 1987. It was dissolved to allow UK producers to compete with cheaper foreign imports. Its supporters argued that it kept prices down in remote areas and stabilised the industry, a situation that cement buyers faced with escalating prices in Tanzania and Saudi Arabia might sympathise with this week. Despite this, prices in the UK fell after the CPA ended in 1987.
An uncited 'fact' on Wikipedia – itself a virtual monopoly on online knowledge – suggests that the median price increase achieved by cartels over the last 200 years could be 25%. Lafarge's fine represented 6% of its 2010 annual turnover in the region. Depending on how Lafarge's sales relate to its turnover this raises the possibility that even with its hefty fine Lafarge may still be in profit over the venture.
Cartels dog the cement industry given the prevalence of small groups of sellers in many markets. Throw in the current economic pressures in regions with over-capacity and the temptation must be irresistible. When one makes a link from this week's story from Pakistan about over-capacity to January's headline of 'inexplicably high' prices, the feeling occurs that Lafarge's chastening in South Africa is just the tip of the iceberg.
What do you think? Join our discussion on cartels in the Global Cement LinkedIn Group
Switzerland: Wolfgang Reitzle has been proposed to the Annual General Meeting on 17 April 2012 for election to the board of Holcim Ltd. Reitzle, aged 63 and a German citizen, studied engineering and economics at the Technical University of Munich and holds a degree and a PhD in mechanical engineering.
From 1976 to 1999 he worked for the car manufacturer BMW, where in 1987 he was appointed as a regular member of the Executive Board, responsible for research and development. In 1999, Reitzle took over as CEO of the Premier Automotive Group and Vice President of the US car manufacturer Ford. In 2002, he joined the Executive Committee of Linde, a world-leading gases and engineering company, and became CEO in 2003.
Lafarge UK has scored a notable success recently at its Cookstown Works reaching 10 years without a lost-time injury (LTI). It has emerged that this is the longest a Lafarge Group plant anywhere in the world has gone without a LTI. Cookstown also set the record the previous year in 2011, showing how far ahead it is of the rest of the group.
LTIs are generally defined as any work related injury or illness which prevents a worker from doing any work the day after the accident. Another similar measure is Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate (LTIFR), which takes into account hours worked by staff.
For example, in April 2011 Global Cement Magazine interviewed the safety manager at the Ste. Genevieve plant in Missouri, USA. He revealed a rate of zero lost-time incidents rate over the last 1.2 million-man hours and no LTIs over the last 700 days. Through construction the plant employed 2300 personnel and then 200 operational employees when it went live. By comparison Cookstown employs only 80 workers. Its LTIFR will be much lower.
The Mineral Products Association recorded a 81% reduction in LTIs between 2004 and 2009 for the UK cement industry. It has since set itself the further target to halve the LTIFR between 2009 and 2014. As of 2009 the UK LTIFR for direct employees was 3.59 per million hours worked. The MPAs target LTIFR for 2014 is 1.79 or lower.
Regardless of how you present the figures the Cookstown Plant LTI achievement is impressive. The challenge, as ever, lies in bettering it.
TÇMB: Board members of the Turkish Cement Manufacturer's Association (TÇMB) were selected at its 54th General Assembly in Ankara on 28 February 2012. The board re-elected Mustafa Güçlü as the Chairman of Board of the TÇMB by acclamation.
An economics graduate from Ankara University, Güçlü has held positions in the Turkish Finance Ministry and Foreign Trade Inc, becoming the General Manager of General Directorate of State Monopolies in 1991. In May 2000, Güçlü started to work as the General Coordinator and the Chairman of Executive Committee in Çimentaş Group.
Hanson UK (HeidelbergCement): Chris Coton, Hanson UK's concrete technical services manager for the south west, died suddenly on 26 February 2012. Coton, aged 59, began his career at the Swansea plant of the now-defunct Pioneer, which was acquired by Hanson, part of the HeidelbergCement group, in 2000.
Coton became area technical manager for Hanson in 2000 and in 2004 he became technical services manager responsible for over 40 concrete plants. Hanson's national technical director Charlie Jones, said, "Chris was a great character and well respected throughout the industry. I will miss him greatly as I am sure many of his colleagues will. He was a good friend and an industry stalwart. Our condolences go to his wife Elaine."