Analysis

Cement shortages were being reported in the US media last week in Alabama and South Carolina. The owner of a ready-mixed concrete supplier in South Carolina was blaming it on labour and supply shortages. Dan Crosby, the president of Metrocon, told Fox News that his business could only take on 60% of the work it could normally cope with due to the issue despite demand for construction growing in the state. Meanwhile, the Alabama Concrete Industries Association said that its home state saw a 14% increase in the demand for concrete in 2021 but that a cement shortage might cause delays to projects. The association also pointed the blame at labour and supply issues. It pointed out that high demand for concrete during the winter prevented inventory being built up and then the annual cement plant maintenance breaks in the spring added to the problems. Once contractors actually secured supplies of cement they then faced further delays due to a nationwide truck driver shortage!

Graph 1: Annual rolling cement shipments in the South of the US. Source: USGS.

Data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) doesn’t especially shed light on the situation in Alabama and South Carolina. Alabama was the fifth largest cement producing state in the country in January 2022 but this is unsurprising as it’s the state with the fifth largest cement production capacity. Rolling annual data on Portland and blended cement shipments by origin show the effects of the coronavirus outbreak in the south from the start of 2020 to January 2022. Shipments took a dive in 2020 and then mostly recovered in 2021. However, Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee saw shipments rise from 7.1Mt pre-pandemic to 7.6Mt in January 2022. South Carolina’s shipments grew from 3Mt to 3.2Mt. Regionally, the North East had a similar pattern although, unlike the South, shipments have surpassed those at the start of 2020. The Midwest and West were different with a general upwards trend over the two years, although the West softened slightly from mid-2021 onwards. Overall the US as a whole has seen its shipments grow throughout this period.

Ed Sullivan from the Portland Cement Association (PCA) told the May 2022 issue of Global Cement Magazine that the US cement sector did well in 2021 with a 4.1% year-on-year rise in sales to 104Mt. However, he flagged up supply chain problems that actually slowed growth, led by a lack of staff.

The other point along these lines that Sullivan made was that imports of cement might not necessarily be able to compensate for domestic supply issues due to global demand for shipping post-coronavirus. USGS data placed imports to the US at 13.7Mt in 2019 compared to 16.3Mt in 2021. Notably, Cemex restarted one production line in 2021 at its CPN cement plant in Sonora State in Mexico to export cement to the west of the US. In March 2022 it added that it was going to restart another line at the plant also. It’s not alone though as GCC reported in January 2022 that a line at one of its plants in Chihuahua, Mexico, was exporting cement to Texas. Sullivan reckoned that January 2022 was ‘weak’ but that it was followed by an ‘extremely strong’ February 2022. The first quarter results from Holcim and CRH seem to back this up with the former describing the period as ‘outstanding’ and the region leading its sales and earnings growth rate globally. CRH reported strong demand in central and southern regions.

As the US economy restarted following the peak of the early coronavirus waves in 2020, various supply chain issues have manifested. Staff shortages are one issue and this can also worsen other logistic problems. The south seems particularly vulnerable to all of this as it is both the country’s largest cement market and because demand has held up. In January 2022 research by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) identified several reasons for staff shortages in the US and the UK. These included increased inactivity among older workers, the so called ‘She-cession’ (where female employment has overly reduced due to coronavirus trends) and shifting worker preferences amid strong labour demand.

Staff shortages are expected to sort themselves out throughout 2022 but favourable forecast demand for cement in the US is balanced by inflationary pressure. Persistent low staffing levels could further add to inflation growth. The US cement sector may be doing well at the moment but even success carries risks.

Global Cement’s Robert McCaffrey will be giving a keynote presentation at the IEEE-PCA Cement Conference in Las Vegas on Tuesday 3 May 2022. The May 2022 issue of Global Cement Magazine, including interviews with PCA chief executive officer Mike Ireland and chief economist Ed Sullivan, is available to download now.

This week’s big story has been that Holcim may be considering selling its business in India. Both the Economic Times newspaper and Bloomberg separately reported that the owner of Ambuja Cement and ACC has been holding early talks with local producers. The discussions have been described as exploratory and an eventual divestment is far from certain. The combined market value of both companies was placed at US$15bn, at the time that the story broke, making it one of the largest potential acquisitions in India. Holcim has refused to comment on the matter.

If it actually happened then the scale of this potential sale would be breathtaking. Holcim has been gradually slimming down since the merger between Lafarge and Holcim in 2015. The big divestments mostly came after the appointment of former Sika boss Jan Jenisch in 2017. Four integrated plants and other assets were sold in Indonesia for US$1.75bn in 2019, a 51% stake in three integrated plants and two grinding plants were sold in Malaysia for US$396m (also in 2019) and five integrated plants were approved for sale in Brazil for US$1.03bn in April 2022.

A complete divestment of Ambuja Cement and ACC in India would see 17 integrated plants and 14 grinding plants being sold with a production capacity of around 66Mt/yr. If any company did buy the lot in one go, at a stroke it would become the second-largest cement producer in the world’s second-largest second market. The nearest acquisition in the last decade that comes close to this was when CRH purchased 24 cement plants with a production capacity of 36Mt/yr from Lafarge and Holcim in 2015 for US$6.5bn.

2022 would certainly be a good time to sell up with both Ambuja Cement and ACC having reported strong sales and earnings figures in 2021 following the coronavirus-related lockdowns in 2020. Performance is even better compared to 2019. Ambuja Cement’s net sales and earnings before taxation, interest, depreciation and amortisation (EBTIDA) grew by 23% year-on-year to US$1.81bn and by 21% to US$420m respectively in 2021. ACC’s sales and operating EBITDA grew by 17% to US$2.07bn and 28% to US$393m respectively in 2021. However, ACC’s net sales growth was much lower compared to that in 2019. Ambuja Cement produced 25.9Mt of cement in 2021 with a production capacity of 31.5Mt giving it a utilisation rate of 82%. ACC produced 26.9Mt of cement in 2021 with a production of 34.5Mt/yr giving it a utilisation rate of 78%. Both of these rates are higher than the national cement sector rates forecast by analysts of up to 64% in the 2022 financial year. The corporate specifics of any sale are that Holcim owns a majority stake in Ambuja Cement, which in turn owns a majority stake in ACC. In other words: buy one, get the other.

One wider question here is whether there are still any companies and investors out there prepared to put money on this scale into a carbon-intensive industry with net-zero deadlines on the way. Ahead of the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in November 2021, India’s prime minister Narendra Modi pledged that his country would cut its emissions to net-zero by 2070. There’s plenty of time left to turn a profit, as cement kilns last about 50 years, but the risk of investing in a stranded asset is growing if the targets are honoured or even brought forward. As a recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report put it, “Cement and concrete are currently overused because they are inexpensive, durable, and ubiquitous, and consumption decisions typically do not give weight to their production emissions.” All of this suggests that buyers might well be more interested in purchasing parts of Holcim’s Indian operations rather than the whole bundle or breaking operations up further down the line. And that’s even before any competition concerns related to any local buyers are considered. Holcim, for its part, has shown with recent divestments, such as its business in Northern Ireland, that it isn’t necessarily against smaller piecemeal divestments. Negotiations, if they are indeed happening, will be closely guarded.

Vicat’s plans to buy another 42% stake in Sinai Cement became public this week. Once completed, the France-based company should own 98% of the Egyptian company, based on previously published ownership figures. The announcement heralds a rapprochement in the relationship between the cement producer and the Egyptian government.

Last year Vicat raised a case against the government with the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) over an argument about how it could invest in Sinai Cement as a foreign company. All seems forgiven and forgotten now with a settlement agreement signed in March 2022 between Rania el Mashat, the Minister of International Cooperation on behalf of the Egyptian government, and Guy Sidos, the chairman and chief executive officer of Vicat Group. Local press reported that the government is trying to attract more direct foreign investment. Sinai Cement reported a loss attributable to its parent company of around US$19.1m in 2021, down from a loss of US$30.3m in 2020. However, its sales rose by 63% year-on-year to US$78m.

Sinai Cement has some specific operating issues related to its geographic position in the Sinai Peninsula and ongoing security concerns. Yet its mixed fortunes also sum up some of the continuing challenges the Egyptian cement industry is facing. After years of overcapacity, the government introduced reduced cement production quotas in July 2021 and this is mostly perceived to have improved prices in the second half of the year. Vicat described the arrangement as having capped the local market at 65% of its production capacity and it said that prices recovered ‘significantly’ as a result in the second half of 2021. Cemex’s regional chief Carlos Gonzalez told local press that the move had given plants “A glimmer of hope for the return of balance to the cement market.” The company has also announced a US$20m local investment backing up this view. Not all the foreign multinational companies entirely agreed, with HeidelbergCement reporting a ‘sharp’ decline in sales volumes although chief executive officer Dominik von Achten did describe the country as ‘coming back’ in an earnings call about his company’s financial results in 2021. Solomon Baumgartner Aviles, the chief executive officer of Lafarge Egypt, was also cooler about the production cap in a press interview in October 2021, describing it as too early to assess how well the cap was working and noting that the gap between supply and demand was still large.

Vicat said in its annual report for 2021 that, “Provided no further adverse geopolitical, health or security developments occur, the current climate is unlikely to jeopardise the prospects of an improvement in the subsidiary’s profitability, which should begin to gradually occur.” The geopolitical bit was timely given that Russia’s war in Ukraine started on 24 February 2022. It also targets the latest problem hitting Egyptian cement producers: energy costs. The head of Arabian Cement told Enterprise Press that initially some producers had opted to temporarily stop production and use stocks instead to attempt to try and wait until the energy price volatility ended. However, it stayed high so the cost of cement has gone up generally. Producers are now trying to switch to using a high ratio of natural gas, such as 10%, but this is dependent on the government letting them.

The Egyptian government, for its part, is facing a decision whether to supply subsidised gas for domestic industry or to export to Europe. The backstory here is that Egyptian cement producers are facing yet another step change in fuel supply. In the mid-2010s lots of plants switched from heavy fuel oil and gas to coal. High international coal prices could be heralding another change.

Alongside this the value of Egypt’s cement exports rose by 151% year-on-year to US$456m in 2021 from US$182m in 2020. The Cement Division of the Federation of Egyptian Industries has attributed this to growth mainly on the African market. This trend continued in January and February 2022 with cement exports up by 141% year-on-year to US$104m from US$43m. The main destinations were Ghana, Cameroon, Ivory Coast and Libya.

HeidelbergCement summed up the current state of the Egyptian cement market in its 2021 annual report as follows “The development of the Egyptian cement market continues to be determined by government intervention.” What happens next is very much in the hands of the state as it decides whether to extend the production cap, which fuels to subsidise, whether to allow exports and where to invest in infrastructure projects. One variation on this theme may be local decarbonisation targets. At the end of March 2022 the Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) launched a series of Net Zero Accelerator initiatives, including one in Egypt. How a country that produces more cement than it needs reduces its CO₂ emissions presents another challenge for manufacturers and the government to grapple with.

African cement producers have confirmed their interest in calcined clay over the last month with two new projects. The big one was announced last week when FLSmidth revealed that it had received an order from CBI Ghana. This follows the launch of a Limestone Calcined Clay (LC3) project in Malawi in mid-March 2022 in conjunction with Lafarge Cement Malawi.

FLSmidth says that its order includes the world’s largest gas suspension calciner system and a complete grinding station. The kit will be installed at CBI Ghana’s plant near Accra in the south of the country. The new clay calciner system is expected to substitute 30 - 40% of the clinker in the final product, resulting in a reduction of up to 40% CO₂/t of blended cement compared to Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC). Overall the equipment manufacturers reckon that the grinding plant will reduce its CO₂ emissions by 20% compared to its current output. There has been no indication of how much the order costs but CBI Ghana expects energy and fuel savings, as well as lower overheads from clinker imports.

The public announcement of the Ghana project was also foreshadowed by the visit of Professor Karen Scrivener to the Ghana Standards Authority in February 2022. This was significant because Scrivener is the head of the Laboratory of Construction Materials at the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) and has been one of the key instigators of the LC3 initiative since the early 2000s. Other calcined clay cements are available such as Futurecem or polysius activated clay (see below) but LC3 is arguably the most famous given its promotion in developing countries.

The Malawi project is at a much earlier stage. The government launched the public private partnership LC3 project in mid-March 2022 in conjunction with Lafarge Cement Malawi and Terrastone, a brick manufacturer. The Ministry of Mining is currently developing a memorandum of understanding with the Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), a Germany-based development agency. India-based Tara Engineering has also been linked to the scheme.

One thing to note about the Malawi project is that it is the first calcined clay project in the cement industry based in East Africa. All the other African ones are based in West Africa. The other two projects in this region are run by Turkey-based Oyak Çimento and its subsidiary Cimpor. The first of these is a 0.3Mt/yr calcined clay and a 2400t/day cement grinding production line that was commissioned in mid-2020. This plant is based at Abidjan in Ivory Coast. The second is a new plant that Germany-based ThyssenKrupp Industrial Solutions is building for Oyak Çimento at Kribi in Cameroon. This unit has a 720t/day calcined clay and a 2400t/day cement production capacity and it will use the supplier’s ‘polysius activated clay’ technology. ThyssenKrupp’s involvement came to light in early 2020 and commissioning was scheduled for late 2021. However, no update on the state of the project has been issued so far in 2022.

As the above examples show, Sub-Saharan Africa has at least one live calcined clay plant, two plants are being built and there’s one more at the development stage. This puts the region neck-and-neck with Europe, which has a similar mixture of current and developing projects. This column has been covering the wider trend of the growing usage of various types of blended cements recently, particularly in Europe and the US, with slag cements, Portland Limestone Cement (PLC) and more. With PLC, for example, note the transition of another two North American cement plants to PLC this week alone. As for calcined clay cement, it is fascinating to see the focus move to a different part of the world. Several commentators have predicted that the future looks set to be dominated by blended cements using whichever supplementary cementitious material (SCM) is most available for each plant. The growth in calcined clay confirms this view.

Global Cement is researching clay calcination use in the cement industry for the next edition of the Global Cement Directory. Email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with any information on new industrial and research installations.

The economic fallout from the war in Ukraine continued this week with the news that Holcim plans to leave the Russian market. It said that it took the decision based on its “values to operate in the most responsible manner.” The company’s Russian subsidiary added that all of its plants would continue to operate as normal while it considered its divestment options.

Holcim’s road to withdrawal has been staggered. In February 2022 at the start of the war it pronounced its sympathy for any affected colleagues and their families and made a Euro1m donation to the Red Cross. Later it said that it would continue operating its business in Russia by following all regulations and supplying the local market. However, at this time it said it would suspend further capital investments in Russia and that it would “not benefit from our presence in this market.”

It’s unknown what prompted Holcim to take the plunge with Russia one month after the war started. At the very least, making decisions over assets valued this highly takes time. CM Pro has reported that the Russian government has considered introducing reference prices for building materials for infrastructure projects and that the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) has been monitoring prices for ‘unreasonable’ growth over the last month. This follows grumbling by the Ministry of Industry and Trade in late 2021 about an apparent low capacity utilisation rate in the country despite shortages in the Central Federal District.

CRH said that it was leaving its Russian concrete business in early March 2022. Yet the decision by Holcim makes it the first of the three western multinational cement producers with large-scale operations in Russia to publicly say it’s pulling out. Holcim, HeidelbergCement and Buzzi Unicem each operate at least two integrated cement plants in the region.

Lafarge entered the Russian market in 1996. Its successor Holcim runs plants at Voskresensk and Kolomna in the Moscow region, at Ferzikovo in the Kaluga region and Volsk in the Saratov region. Together the plants have a production capacity of around 9Mt/yr. Over the last decade Holcim and its predecessor has invested at least a reported Euro1.3bn in three of the plants. The dry-production line Ferzikovo plant was built in 2015. The Shchurovsky plant in Kolomna was originally founded in 1870 and claims to be the oldest in the country. In 2011 it started commissioned a new dry production line. The Volsk plant started a modernisation project in 2017. The fourth, the Voskresensk plant, was mothballed in 2016. However, in early February 2022 LafargeHolcim Russia said it was aiming to spend Euro23m towards restarting production at the site. This was likely due to a boom in construction in 2021. The subsidiary also owns three aggregate quarries in the Republic of Karelia region of the country, near the border with Finland.

Selling up in Russia looks set to be difficult for Holcim. This is principally due to the European and American economic sanctions and the Russian government’s stated intention to nationalise the assets of any company trying to leave. This is clearly why Holcim has worded its plans so vaguely. If or when a peace deal is reached between Russia and Ukraine, the business environment could change significantly, depending on the terms, complicating any existing sale process. Determining how much Holcim might want to get from such a sale in these conditions is complex. Smikom bought Eurocement from Sberbank for Euro2.1bn in 2021 giving it 10 plants. Could Holcim realistically expect to sell its plants for around Euro200m each in the current environment? As for the hit Holcim might take, in its annual report for 2021 it said that the group’s Russian operations represented around 1% of the 2021 consolidated net sales. This would have been around Euro260m. Its Russian cement production capacity was reported as being 9Mt/yr in 2021 or 3% of the group’s global figure of 293Mt/yr.

Finally, it is worth noting though that Lafarge’s charges of ‘complicity in crimes against humanity’ also continued to be tested in the French courts this week. The legal case relates to the conduct of Lafarge in Syria between 2011 and 2014. This is totally separate from the situation in Russia but it does highlight the issue of corporate ethics for the group once again. Following proceedings in December 2021, Beat Hess, chair of the board of Holcim said, “The described events concerning Lafarge SA were concealed from the Holcim board at the time of the merger in 2015 and go completely against the values of our company.” Consider that use of ‘values’ again. Holcim may be about to find out how much it is prepared to pay for its values as it departs Russia.