Dominican Republic: Colombian cement producer Cementos Argos has announced the appointment of Gary Manuel de la Rosa as its new Director General in the Dominican Republic. Previously, de la Rosa acted as a director of the industrial business unit at Cementos Argos in the Caribbean and Central American region.

One of the surprises from the recent round of half-year results has been HeidelbergCement’s struggle to grow its sales so far in 2017. Part of this has been down to a variable market in Indonesia where the German cement producer runs the second largest player, Indocement.

Cement consumption for the country as a whole dropped by 1.3% year-on-year to 29Mt in the first half of the year, according to Indonesian Cement Association figures. This appears to be due to a particularly poor month in June 2017 where local consumption fell by 27% to 3.7Mt. Prior to that, consumption was actually showing 4% growth up until the end of May.

Fairly reasonably HeidelbergCement blamed the decline in part on this year’s timing of Ramadan. Unfortunately this could not explain everything, as its total sales volumes including exports fell by 2.4%. Remove the exports and its sales volumes fell by 4.4%, more than the national average. It said this was due to its concentration in weaker markets in Jakarta, Banten, and West Java where competition pressures had forced prices down ‘significantly.’

They weren’t alone in feeling the pain in June 2017 with both Semen Indonesia and LafargeHolcim reporting reduced sales. However, LafargeHolcim also raised the issue of production overcapacity creating increased sales volumes and pushing down prices. This was reflected in lower earnings for its Asia Pacific division. HeidelbergCement too saw its earnings crumble.

Graph 1: Cement production capacity and consumption. Source: Semen Indonesia investor presentation, March 2017.

Graph 1 shows quite nicely the fix the Indonesian cement market is in at present. Consumption surpassed production capacity in the early 2010 before incoming capacity jumped ahead again around 2013. You can also view Global Cement’s version of this graph here. Even at an optimistic annual growth rate of 8%, consumption won’t get close to capacity until 2020. Yet before the market collapsed in June, consumption was growing at 4%, which is the weakest of Semen Indonesia’s growth scenarios.

Admittedly the graph is in an investor document so we can forgive ebullience but they are going to need a magic bullet to dodge this one. Lucky then that the graph also has infrastructure highlighted. The cement producer says that the Indonesian government earmarked US$26bn for infrastructure spending in 2017 and that this spending campaign can be seen in the changing ratio of bulk to bagged cement it has been selling. Independent of Semen Indonesia, the Fitch credit rating agency was also predicting rising consumption off the back of infrastructure plans in a report it put out in June.

However, as more cement plants are being built, cement plant utilisation rates seem destined to stay subdued for the foreseeable future unless the government seriously ups its infrastructure investment or unless the economy goes into overdrive. Unsurprisingly exports have shot up so far in 2016, by 74% to 1.14Mt. Cement producers in neighbouring countries beware!

Nigeria: Brian Egan has been appointed as an executive director to the board of Dangote Cement. Currently the company’s Chief Financial Officer, he has worked for the cement producer since 2014. Previous to this he worked as the executive director and chief financial officer of Petropavlovsk and of Aricom. He has also held senior finance positions at Gloria Jeans Corporation, Georgia – Pacific Ireland and Coca-Cola HBC-Russia. He trained with KPMG and is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Ireland.

India: Manoj Agarwal has resigned as the company secretary and compliance officer of Star Cement, with effect from 2 August 2017. His successor is Debabrata Thakurta, a member of the Institute of Company Secretaries of India.

Cement sales volumes are down at the larger multinational cement producers so far in 2017. As the first half-year results emerge, a picture seems to be appearing of sluggish growth at best for the major internationals. Reduced working days and poor weather have been blamed for the underwhelming performance.

Graph 1: Cement sales volumes for selected multinational cement producers during the first half of 2017. Source: Company financial reports.

True, LafargeHolcim’s sales rose by 0.4% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis, probably due to the assets the group has been sloughing off since the merger, but this is hardly the dynamic growth shareholders may have hoped for. Meanwhile, HeidelbergCement, following its acquisition of Italcementi in late 2016, has only been able to increase its cement and clinker sales by 1% for the first half of 2017 once consolidation effects were excluded. Here the problem appears to be reduced sales in both the US and Indonesia at the same time. This then leaves Cemex with a 2% drop in sales volumes to 33.9Mt with a big drop in the US despite a promising construction market otherwise. It blamed the decline on a high comparison base in 2016 and the weather.

The larger regional players examined here appear to have fared better. Both UltraTech Cement in India and Dangote in sub-Saharan Africa reported flat or falling sales volumes. However, delve a little deeper and there’s more going on. UltraTech didn’t offer any reason for the decline although it was likely focused on its acquisition of assets from Jaiprakash Associates and the knock-on from the demonetisation process last year. That purchase increased its cement production capacity by nearly 40% to 91.4Mt/yr from 66.3Mt/yr and it seems keen, to investors at least, that it will be able to rocket up the capacity utilisation rate at the new plants.

Dangote meanwhile has taken a blow from the poor economic situation in Nigeria, where it still produces most of its cement. Here, sales fell by 21.8% to 6.86Mt from 8.77Mt, causing its overall sales to fall by 11.3% to 11.5Mt. Almost incredibly though, as Graph 2 shows, Dangote upped its sales revenue by a whopping 41.2% to US$1.13bn off the back of improved efficiencies and a much better fuel mix in Nigeria. The turnaround is impressive considering the pressure the company faced in 2016. Today’s news that the firm has sold a 2.3% stake to foreign investors adds to the impression of a company on the move.

Graph 2: Sales revenue for selected multinational cement producers during the first half of 2017. Source: Company financial reports.

Looking at overall sales revenue shows a happier picture for most of the producers detailed here, with the exception of HeidelbergCement. Although Graph 2 shows declines for LafargeHolcim and Cemex on a like-for-like basis, at least growth is occurring. HeidelbergCement though has reported static revenue on an adjusted basis for the period. This suggests that the producer has hit problems just as it is starting to integrate the Italcementi assets into its portfolio. In theory the geographic spread of its new production units should shield it from lowered growth elsewhere but if this doesn’t happen it may be in for a rougher ride than LafargeHolcim following its merger.

In summary, being a large-scale multinational cement producer doesn’t quite seem to be offering the balanced growth one might expect so far in 2017. Cement sales volumes are slipping and revenue is also down on a direct comparison basis. It’s barely a case for comparison but smaller regionally based producers like UltraTech Cement and Dangote, in the right locations, seem to be capitalising on their positions. We’ll see how the big Brazilian producers Votorantim and InterCement, Buzzi Unicem and CRH fit this trend when they release their financial results over the next few weeks.

Spain: The board of directors of Oficemen, the Spanish cement association, has elected Jesús Ortiz, the chief executive officer (CEO) of HeidelbergCement in Spain, as its new president. He suceeds Jaime Ruiz de Haro, the CEO of Cemex España.

Jesús Ortiz, aged 56 years, worked between 1983 and 1989 as a Diplomatic Commercial Attaché for the French Ministry for Economy and Finance in various overseas postings and in France. In 1989 he joined Italcementi Group in France and then held different operational responsibilities at its Spainish operations. Between 2003 and 2007 he served as Managing Director of Italcementi Group’s activities in Greece and Bulgaria. He joined HeidelbergCement in 2007 as its General Manager for Spain before moving to Brussels to assume responsibilities for the group’s aggregate and concrete business in Europe and Africa. Following HeidelbergCement’s acquisition of Italcementi in 2016 he returned to Spain to coordinate the integration of the companies.

He holds a diploma in Economics and Business Administration from the ESC Clermont Graduate School of Management in Clermont-Ferrand, France and a master's degree from the European Institute of Business Administration in Fontainebleau, France. He is also the president of the European Aggregates Association (UEPG).

Malaysia: Richard Curtis is to retire as Group Managing Director of Cahya Mata Sarawak Berhad (CMS) on 31 December 2017. He will then remain as a Non-Independent Non-Executive Director until the end of 2018. Curtis will be succeeded by Isaac Lugun as the company’s Group Chief Corporate Officer and Goh Chii Bing as its Group Chief Operating Officer.

Ireland: Maeve Carton plans to retire as Group Transformation Director of CRH and from its board on 31 August 2017. Since joining CRH in 1988, Maeve has held a number of senior financial roles prior to joining the board as Finance Director in May 2010. She was appointed Group Transformation Director in January 2016.

Germany: Karl-Heinz Fiegenbaum has retired from Schade Lagertechnik. During a career spanning 47 years he became the managing director of the company in July 2011 with responsibility for the sales and commerce. Christoph Seifert, who joined the business as its Technical Managing Director in February 2015, will succeed him. Klaus Paul, who joined the company in March 2017, will become the new Technical Managing Director.

Last week we looked at the prospect of two new Angolan cement plants, a situation that will reportedly lead the country to being ‘self sufficient in cement.’ When we hear this phrase, very often from relatively small markets in Africa or Asia, the obvious next step invariably follows: The country in question will become a regional powerhouse for cement exports.

But try telling that to the desperate Vietnamese cement producers, swamped by chronic overcapacity and very low prices, both at home and abroad. In an effort to shift more of Vietnam’s cement mountain, this week the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) proposed big changes to its handling of cement exports. At the moment cement is subject to a 5% export tax and does not receive VAT refunds. This means that Vietnamese cement has become less competitive than Chinese, Thai, Indonesian and Japanese cement on the regional market, compounding the oversupply situation at home.

The MPI now proposes to scrap the tax and allow for VAT refunds to avoid a colossal 36-47Mt oversupply of cement by 2020. It is quite staggering that this response hasn’t been considered before. This is especially the case, given that the VICEM’s General Director Tran Viet Thang asked for the government to look at the rules back in February 2017. Indeed the Vietnam Cement Association predicted an oversupply of nearly 50Mt/yr by 2020 in January 2017.

Vietnam exported 14.7Mt of cement and clinker in 2016 according to its domestic statistics service. The country was the seventh largest exporter of cement and clinker in 2016 in value terms, with a total value of US$431.7m. China, as one might suspect, topped the list, but only at US$683.6m, around 58% more than Vietnam. Given that China’s cement capacity is around 20 times that of Vietnam, this highlights the extent to which Vietnam is trying to rely on imports.

A market-led response to this would be to close some of the cement plants down and stop commissioning any new ones. China has made some inroads into this approach and Vietnam is following suit… to some extent. That said, however, Trinh Dinh Dung, the Deputy Prime Minster, inaugurated the second production line at the Thanh Thang Cement plant on 4 July 2017 and Long Son Cement will open its second production line at Long Son in late August 2017. That new line will add nearly another 3Mt/yr of capacity to the national total just by itself. On top of this, Thai-owned Siam City Cement Vietnam opened a new ‘terminal’ in Vietnam in late June. Thailand ranked above Vietnam in the cement and clinker export list for 2016 at US$612.2m, suggesting that, contrary to the obvious implication, the port could even be used to ship out Thai exports into Vietnam!

This is not the first time we have heard about Vietnam’s massive cement surplus but it is the first time that the government appears to have registered it as needing attention. A market-led economy would simply shut the plants down but Vietnam plays by different rules. Will changing the rules on tax help it sell out its surplus? Call us in 2020…